Xi’s dream may not extend across China, writes Joseph Bosco, a former China desk officer in the US Dept. of Defense. Taiwan’s local elections this week and Hong Kong’s public demonstrations send an implicit but clear message to Beijing: These two populations do not want to live under the rule of China’s Communist Party.
The rejection embodied in these events has been building for years in both places. Xi Jinping now must decide whether he should hold firm or find ways to broaden his China Dream to accommodate the democratic aspirations of Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Xi has greater legal latitude and practical opportunity to use force in Hong Kong. But if Hong Kong’s authorities prove unable to handle larger demonstrations, would Xi risk a Tiananmen-like massacre rather than honor Deng’s home-rule promise?
Taiwan presents a different kind of legal, diplomatic, or military challenge. First of all, a couple dozen governments still recognize the Republic of China. Washington has long provided arms to help Taiwan prepare its own defense, and the Taiwan Relations Act pronounced any threat to Taiwan’s future a matter “of grave concern to the United States,” falling just short of the explicit security commitment contained in the earlier Mutual Defense Treaty.
As a legal counterweight to the Taiwan Relations Act, the National People’s Congress in 2005 adopted the Anti-Secession Law, which threatens war if Taiwan declares independence.
The elections in Taiwan may have convinced Beijing that the possibility of closer political ties is vanishing. If Beijing has indeed determined that possibilities for peaceful unification are “completely exhausted,” as the Anti-Secession Law warns, Beijing may conclude it is now justified in taking military action against Taiwan. Or cooler heads may prevail, pushing China instead to await a more tangible pretext for hostilities. The assessment of America’s role will weigh heavily in Beijing’s deliberations.
Xi is thus left pondering critical dilemmas, not only regarding war and peace, but concerning the very legitimacy of China’s Communist regime. He might want to consider the sound advice Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou has been offering Beijing for years: Start following Taiwan’s lead and move along the peaceful path to democracy. With one country, two systems now a dead letter for Taiwan, two countries, one system would be the better answer.
