Stress Tests Flummoxing US Banks

And this is good!  While no big U.S. bank failed the test, some of Wall Street’s marquee names were shocked by the disparity between their expectations and the Fed’s, such as projections for how banks’ assets and net income would fare in a severe economic downturn, said people close to the banks.

“We all ended up having a wake-up call on what [the Fed] thought our losses could be,” said a person close to the process.

Matt Levine estimates that discussions about how unpredictable these tests should be suggests: enough to keep the banks on their toes and make them think seriously about their crisis modeling, but not so much as to be a random outcome that makes modeling pointless.

How much the three revise-and-resubmitters took out of their revised capital plans: Morgan Stanley cut out a $4.9 billion preferred-stock buyback, JPMorgan cut out about $6 billion of capital return, and Goldman probably cut out about $3 billion.

Stress Test

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