Marc Champion writes: If the countries of the EU can get together and plan, there is no reasons for the Russian stoppage of natural gas to effect them.
The Nord Stream pipeline project completed in 2012 leaves eight countries vulnerable instead of 18. In addition, the 2009 shock prompted the EU to make a few changes of its own. A new 67-mile pipeline connecting the Slovakian and Hungarian gas grids should be fully operational by Jan. 1.
The Balkans, Hungary and Poland would come under real stress, however. (Finland and the Baltic states might also be severely affected, but only if Russia stopped supplies through pipelines outside Ukraine in a direct attack on those countries.) So long as EU members respond by spreading the pain and helping each other out, lost supplies would average 10 percent to 60 percent, from Greece to Poland, according to the EU stress tests.
On the other hand, if countries stop supplying others with gas as soon as they run out of surplus themselves, some will be hit much harder. Bosnia and Macedonia would lose 100 percent of their gas supplies, while Bulgaria and Serbia would lose 60 percent to 80 percent. So the severity of the impact would depend on just how willing countries were to work with and sacrifice for each other, making this a big test of EU “solidarity.” Nothing would please Putin more than to see the EU fail that test and so disillusion new members and applicants from the ex-communist bloc in Central Europe — including his hosts last week in Serbia.
