Category Archives: The Globe

14th Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum

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On 20 June 2019 Congressman Robert Pittenger and Hon. Sonia Krimi hosted the 14th Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum in Paris France. This forum has provided the opportunity for Members of Parliament throughout the world to learn from experts and each other about issues of national security particularly in reference to counter-terrorism efforts. These forums have not only shared critical information but encouraged co-operation between governments, private, and public sector organizations.

The 14th forum aimed to address the growing concern about the relationship between countering terrorism and the financing of terrorism. The conference discussed where terrorism currently stands, how it functions, and how the international community can counter terrorist financing methods. While this forum highlighted several terrorist organizations, for the purposes of this article, the focus will be on the discussion surrounding Jihadist terrorist movements.

The terrorism threat has changed dramatically over the last several decades. With huge population growth in areas without access to markets and vulnerability of states in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, the rifts in the Jihadist nebula have primed areas to recruit and act. There is no longer one state, but insurgencies in previously nonimpacted areas all which create a larger global network and establish roots in strategy. While the aims of the different fissures in this network differ, they are beginning to develop new strategic priorities to determine to focus on close or remote enemies.

Women also act as perpetrators and supporters of terrorism, as we have seen recently that there has been an increase in attention to female foreign terrorists fighters traveling to (and returning from) conflict zones. This radicalization of the role of women in spreading this terrorist network, while under-studied, is a crucial component to the spread of global jihadist network and changes in strategic movements in the variety of groups and networks.

This shift has come with new approaches to the tactics of terrorist groups. There has been a rise in the myth of the Caliphate in the Middle Eastern region, perpetuated by leaders who allow this myth to expand. Alongside the growing reliance on social media, terrorist groups are able to reach more individuals, create a larger network, increase visibility, and dissolve information with ease. This larger global system is then bolstered by a marriage of convenience between terrorist groups and gangs, mafias, and other crime organizations. This convergence has increased the amount of illicit money and terrorist financing (through money laundering and other illegal methods).

Women have played a key role in this new type of terrorism and the justification of illegal financing in these groups. As these groups tend to have a foundation in purity, through the twisting of the Quran they are able to make trafficking and laundering acceptable to support their efforts. Women have served as a compliment to this system and used to support this financing process providing both practical support and justification in these financing methods.

The rate of terrorism and the illegal funding of these organizations can be worsened by economic exclusion which weaken states and make them vulnerable to terrorist attacks. Further, there are new methods of warfare which can be quicker, larger scale, and of greater intensity than previous terrorist methods. The international community must act swiftly to address these new risks and rely on coordination between governments and the private sector.

To fight this terrorism, we cannot rely on conventional warfare. There is a significant difference in the strength of states and terrorist groups benefit from over-reaction from states. Therefore, lethal methods must be a last resort and we should first aim to stifle terrorism at its start- specifically in terms of financing. The international community should emphasis AFL/CFT regulations to reduce reliance on money laundry and create strong financial structures in states to monitor money laundering. Women’s unique roles in societies can serve as an important role in order to enhance the effectiveness of these type of policies. In order for this defense style to work, we must reduce disunity between democracies to ensure clear communication and collaboration to end terrorist financing.

When addressing counter terrorism financing rules, it is crucial to consider the impact which these laws may have on women. For example, research has demonstrated that counter-terrorism financial laws can impact women more severely in places where access to the formal banking sector is limited and the rely on alternative remittance system. These areas may also be more highly susceptible to terrorism and counter terrorism laws as weaker states with less access to economic inclusion may be vulnerable. These rules may also increase risks for women’s rights organizations and undermine peace work according to Women’s International League for Freedom.

The 14th Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum was an excellent convergence of government representatives and members of the private sector to address this important and rapidly changing nature of terrorism and terrorist organization’s financing. There was an emphasis on the relationship between organizations and governments to create a coordinated approach to stifling the sources of financing in terrorist cases. We must learn from this conference and encourage strong structures AFL/CFT, greater coordination between different groups, and a renewed focus on the nature of counter terrorist financing methods.

Below is a video summary report of the 14th Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum in Paris on June 20, 2019 held at the French National Assembly with 180 delegates from 32 countries. We have provided twelve brief interviews of the thirty officials and experts who addressed the forum.

Arend van Dam
https://www.w-t-w.org/en/arend-van-dam/

China’s Emergence Plagues the West

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joseph E.Stiglitz writes:  Last year was a memorable one for the global economy. Not only was overall performance disappointing, but profound changes – both for better and for worse – occurred in the global economic system.

On the positive side are the Paris climate agreement and the impending end of fossil fuels as the mina source of energy.  Trade is more complicated as is China’s continued growth in power and population.  Nobelist Joseph E. Steiglitz on the state of the globe

China's Reform?

 

India Lucks out on Capturing CO2

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India lucks out on climate change

India is blessed with an extraordinary geological feature that may provide a natural solution to the problem of climate change, according to some geologists. India has indeed an additional option, some geologists believe. This consists of capturing the CO2 coming out of coal-fired power plants and injecting it below the Deccan Traps for permanent storage. Deccan Traps – a thick pile of solidified lava from volcanic eruptions 65 million years ago – occupies about a third of peninsular India and is the world’s largest continental flood-basalt province outside Siberia. The trap cover varies in thickness from a few hundred to a few thousand metres and, below this, lie thick sedimentary rocks. The idea is to pump the CO2 through the porous sedimentary rocks and use the basalt layer above as a “cap” to stop the gas escaping.

Deccan Traps

Has Oil Run Its Course?

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Anatole Karetsky writes:  Now that oil prices have settled into a long-term range of $30-50, energy users everywhere are enjoying an annual income boost worth more than $2 trillion. The net result will almost certainly accelerate global growth, because the beneficiaries of this enormous income redistribution are mostly lower- and middle-income households that spend all they earn.

Of course, there will be some big losers – mainly governments in oil-producing countries, which will run down reserves and borrow in financial markets for as long as possible, rather than cut public spending. That, after all, is politicians’ preferred approach, especially when they are fighting wars, defying geopolitical pressures, or confronting popular revolts.

The managements of leading energy companies must face economic reality and abandon their wasteful obsession with finding new oil.

But the monopoly has fallen on hard times. Assuming that a combination of shale development, environmental pressure, and advances in clean energy keep the OPEC cartel paralyzed, oil will now trade like any other commodity in a normal competitive market, as it did from 1986 to 2005.

In a normal competitive market, prices will be set by the cost of producing an extra barrel from the cheapest oilfields with spare capacity. This means that all the reserves in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Russia, and Central Asia would have to be fully developed and exhausted before anyone even bothered exploring under the Arctic ice cap or deep in the Gulf of Mexico or hundreds of miles off the Brazilian coast.

Of course, the real world is never as simple as an economics textbook. Geopolitical tensions, transport costs, and infrastructure bottlenecks mean that oil-consuming countries are willing to pay a premium for energy security, including the accumulation of strategic supplies on their own territory.

For Western oil companies,the rational strategy will be to stop oil exploration and seek profits by providing equipment, geological knowhow, and new technologies such as hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) to oil-producing countries. But their ultimate goal should be to sell their existing oil reserves as quickly as possible and distribute the resulting tsunami of cash to their shareholders until all of their low-cost oilfields run dry.

There are two reasons why this has not happened – yet. Oil company managements still believe, with quasi-religious fervor, in perpetually rising demand and prices. So they prefer to waste money seeking new reserves instead of maximizing shareholders’ cash payouts. And they contemptuously dismiss the only other plausible strategy: an investment shift from oil exploration to new energy technologies that will eventually replace fossil fuels.

Redirecting just half the $50 billion that oil companies are likely to spend this year on exploring for new reserves would more than double the $10 billion for clean-energy research announced this month by 20 governments at the Paris climate-change conference. The financial returns from such investment would almost certainly be far higher than from oil exploration. Yet, as one BP director replied when I asked why his company continued to risk deep-water drilling, instead of investing in alternative energy: “We are a drilling business, and that is our expertise. Why should we spend our time and money competing in new technology with General Electric or Toshiba?”

As technology continues to improve and environmental restrictions tighten, it seems inevitable that much of the world’s proven oil reserves will be left where they are, like most of the world’s coal.

OPEC seems finally to have absorbed this message and realized that the Oil Age is ending. Western oil companies need to wake up to the same reality, stop exploring, and either innovate or liquidate.

End of Oil?

 

What May Happen if Oil Prices Stay Low?

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Will oil prices become subject to supply and demand?  OPEC’s unwillingness to manipulate the price of oil by pumping less gas hints that the future may reside in the market.

Saudi Arabia appears to be displacing Russian crude going into refineries in Poland and Sweden   Producers who depend on a higher price per barrel of oil have cut back by $150 billion this year.  Eventually diminished investment will diminish output.

Falling oil prices are increasing consumption, which may not be good for carbon levels.  In the developing world, however, the amount of oil consumed in relation to economic output is declining.  China is becoming less energy-intensive.  Rapid depletion in shale oil fields may make investments in shale less attractive, in addition to the environmental objections and the low cost of fuel oil.   Who knows?  Only the Saudis!

Giant Step Forward to Halt Global Warming

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Over two hundred countries gathered for a conference on global warming in Paris.  Earlier in the week 50 countries and the EU countries made a preliminary agreement.

Now all the participating nations agreed to an ambitious goal of halting average global warming at no more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial temperatures — and of striving for a limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible.

The agreement still faces hurdles. It will go into effect only if 55 countries that account for 55% of total global greenhouse gas emissions ratify it.  A giant step forward for mankind and womankind.

Not a Drop to Drink Susan Rennie

Not a Drop to Drink
Susan Rennie