Arash Karami writes: Ayatollah Rafsanjani head of Iran’s Expediency Council, has said that to resolve many of the issues plaguing the Middle East, there needs to be cooperation between the two regional rivals, Iran and Saudi Arabia. When Rafsanjani was asked about Iran-Saudi relations, he said that after statements by Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati about the passing of King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, “The situation became worse.”

Rafsanjani believes that relations with Saudi Arabia can be improved once again, just as they were after the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Rafsanjani said that after the 1979 revolution, relations with Riyadh deteriorated over Tehran’s desire to export the revolution and the Saudi support for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in the war. However, when he became president in 1989, then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini urged him to improve ties because Riyadh had banned Iranian pilgrims to Mecca, insisting citizens of a Muslim country must be able to go perform a religious duty.

The great Harvard economist Carmen Reinhart wrote a wonderful book with Kenneth Rogoff.  “This Time It’s Differnent.”  Over centuries it hasn’t been. And now it isn’t either.

Remember subprime?

It’s not that it’s back. It never left.

But this time is different.

Remember how low interest rates led investors into buying packaged, securitized boxes with black holes?

It’s not that that’s back. It never left.

But this time is different.

What’s different? Today I’ll tell you…

Shah Gilani notes:The new subprime buildup isn’t about credit-damaged borrowers taking out mortgages. And new securitized boxes aren’t being filled with mortgages.

This time is different because credit-impaired borrowers are buying autos, borrowing on newly minted credit cards and taking out personal, mostly unsecured, loans. This time, institutional investors, mutual funds and retail investors are buying pieces of packaged leveraged loans.

This time is different because the dice are different.

According to a recent report released today – compiled by credit-reporting firm Equifax Inc. for The Wall Street Journal – in the first 11 months of 2014, four out of 10 auto loans, credit cards and personal loans went to subprime borrowers with credit scores of less than 640. That’s 50 million loans for $189 billion, in 11 months.

Subprime lending has helped boost auto sales 59% since 2009. That’s why we’re seeing record auto sales – lenders are throwing record amounts of money at borrowers, especially subprime borrowers.

Like private equity companies and hedge funds and venture capital firms, are able to borrow at next to nothing and put that money out to work in the “free market.” There they look to maximize the yield they get on the loans they make.

These non-bank lenders play in different sandboxes. Some throw money at auto dealers, both new- and used-car shops, so anybody who comes in the door can get a loan, as long as they’re willing to pay sky-high interest rates. Some back lending sites, like LendingTree or Elevate, which help themselves and their backers by lending money at high rates.

In 2014 LendingTree upped the loans it made to borrowers with FICO scores of 500 to 619 by 761% over 2013. None of the loans were mortgages.

Elevate, for its part, lends out at annual interest rates from 36% to a mere 365%.

The New York Federal Reserve said last Tuesday that total household debt rose $306 billion in just the fourth quarter of 2014.

With so much of that debt being carried by subprime borrowers, something’s bound to break.

But not to worry.  Most of the debt that might turn rotten isn’t sitting on banks’ balance sheets. It’s in private hands. Or public hands, depending on which investors are backing private equity shops, hedge funds and VC firms – or, sometimes, as in a lot, the crap gets packaged and sold off to other yield-hungry “investors.”

Banks themselves are packaging some new, old stuff this time around. They’re making “leveraged loans” to companies whose balance sheets are leveraged up with debt already. Borrowers apparently like the leverage to sometimes speculate on their own businesses, maybe buy each other out, maybe pay their controlling masters’ fees, maybe pay dividends, maybe buy back their overpriced shares, maybe just pay off old debt with new debt.

But not to worry.

In other words, don’t worry, this time risks are being spread around, not to just the same people as before, but to new investors who just know this time is different.

Amy Stouddart writes:  United States Trade Representative Froman has been saber-rattling at the World Trade Organization (WTO). “Under the President’s leadership”, said Ambassador Froman, “USTR will continue working tirelessly to ensure that China and all WTO Members play by the rules so we can grow solid, middle-class jobs here in America.” And “We’re ensuring that it’s the United States that leads and defines the rules of the road.”  The argument that humanity writ-large should play by U.S. rules in order to create solid, middle-class jobs in America amounts to a strategic misstep. It undermines the broader case the United States has been trying to make about why it – not China – should be at the center of the global trading order.

Trade deals are contentious and thus always subject to a certain amount of political theater: while there might be net job creation or higher wages, some jobs are lost; industries are shifted; compromises on standards are made.

At a time when the United States is leading an effort to rewrite global trading architecture, however, describing trade agreements and the WTO as tools for enforcing U.S. rules which serve U.S. interests rather than as mutually-agreed upon frameworks which broadly serve the global good is counterproductive to the Obama administration’s trade agenda.

A large part of the TPP selling job in Asia, in the developing world, and to critics who suggested that the agreements essentially amounted to an abandonment of the fairer, multilateral (if painfully slow) process at the WTO has been that the United States is a benign leader in the global trading order, unlike some of the emerging economies – especially China – who seek to exploit the global economy to their own benefit. TPP is not being pursued just to advance U.S. interests, runs the argument, but because a freer global trading order with high standards and rules that can be fairly enforced is better for the global economy.

Ambassador Froman has shifted his focus to the internationalist case:: “We can lead and ensure that the global trading system reflects our values and our interests, or we can cede that role to others, which will inevitably create a less advantageous position for our workers and our businesses.”

The original impetus behind TPP for the United States was more about ensuring the continued development of an open, cooperative global economy than about shipping U.S. beef to Japan.  Winning the TPP will depend in part on persuading the world that the United States is willing and able to act in the global interest, not just its own.

Paul J. Saunders writes:  While the United States is widely considered Russia’s principal rival in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia may well be taking second place. Moreover, not unlike Moscow’s suspicions toward Washington, Russian officials and analysts have often seen a Saudi hand in problems closer to home, in Russia’s neighboring countries and even within Russia itself. Russian-Saudi tensions thus seem unlikely to lessen anytime soon.

Some of the strains in Russia’s relations with Saudi Arabia derive from the kingdom’s long-standing role as one of America’s closest and strongest allies in the Middle East.

Most interesting is the extent to which senior Russian officials have refrained from publicly criticizing Saudi Arabia and its leaders — they are not nearly so shy in expressing their views of many other US allies. The fact that Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are this careful suggests that notwithstanding widespread negative attitudes toward the kingdom’s foreign policy, Moscow is not eager to provoke Saudi Arabia any more than is necessary. From a certain perspective, that might just be the highest form of respect the Russian government can offer.

Many in Moscow suspect that Saudi Arabia is deliberately depressing oil prices to damage Russia’s economy, either on its own or in collaboration with the United States. The Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, which some see as linked to Russia’s intelligence services, recently published a study making this case. A spokesman for state-owned oil company Rosneft likewise accused Saudi Arabia of “political manipulation” of the oil price. Patrushev has publicly attributed the collapse of the USSR to a similar plot.

Despite deep Russian concerns over Saudi conduct, Moscow clearly views the kingdom with respect as a formidable player. After all, with an economy only one-third the size of Russia’s — and about one-fifth its population — Saudi Arabia has an annual military budget that ranks just behind Russia’s (Moscow’s is the world’s third largest, and Saudi Arabia’s its fourth largest) and is only $8 billion smaller. At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s better-run oil-dependent economy has outperformed Russia’s for most of the last decade, including during the two oil price collapses in 2009 and today.

One mark of this respect was the fact that Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev attended King Abdullah’s January 2015 funeral. Another is that in each of five different stories about Abdullah’s death, the Russian state media agency ITAR-TASS referred to the late monarch as “King Abdullah, one of the world’s most powerful people.” This is no accident. President Vladimir Putin himself said, “The deceased king was known as a wise and consistent statesman and politician, a leader loved and respected by his people and had a deserved authority on the international scene.”

Indeed, perhaps most interesting is the extent to which senior Russian officials have refrained from publicly criticizing Saudi Arabia and its leaders — they are not nearly so shy in expressing their views of many other US allies. The fact that Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are this careful suggests that notwithstanding widespread negative attitudes toward the kingdom’s foreign policy, Moscow is not eager to provoke Saudi Arabia any more than is necessary. From a certain perspective, that might just be the highest form of respect the Russian government can offer.

Eman Ahmed, the head of the Tamooha Center of the Abu Dhabi Commerce Bank,  received the “Distinguished Women in Banking and Finance” award during the 17th National Career Exhibition for the UAE Banking, Financial and Government Sector being held annually at Expo Centre Sharjah.

Commenting on this momentous occasion, Ali Darwish; Executive Vice-President and Head of Group Human Resources at the Abu Dhabi Commericial Bank said: “This award that the Bank has won for the third consecutive time reflects the keenness of ADCB  to support its staff to achieve their dreams and to highlight their abilities and their considerable experience. This award, in particular, is further evidence that we are committed to investing in our employees and to make sure that UAE women working within the bank’s have an opportunity to advance in their career. I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Eman on receiving such a prestigious award and I wish her every success in her future career with ADCB.”

Commenting on her win, Eman Ahmed said: “Receiving this award serves as further encouragement to continue to develop my career to demonstrate the capabilities of UAE women to excel in all areas of work. I would like to take this opportunity to thank the Abu Dhabi COmmerical Bank for its continuous support and encouragement and for all the opportunities offered to me that enable me to achieve my professional ambitions and aspirations. I would also like to thank all my colleagues and managers, as without their unwavering support and encouragement I would not have earned this award.”