Trade with Africa a Win/Win

Michael From an and Dana J. Hyde write: Africa’s rise challenges the imagination. During the last decade, Sub-Saharan Africa was home to six of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies. During the next five years, the region’s GDP is expected to grow 30% faster than that of the rest of the world. And, during the next 35 years, the continent will account for more than half of the world’s population growth, according to the United Nations.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been tremendously effective since its enactment in 2000. By removing tariffs on exports to the United States from 39 Sub-Saharan countries, it has stimulated growth, encouraged economic integration, and created opportunity where it otherwise might not have existed.

Tariffs are no longer the biggest constraint on trade in Africa. Today, the chief impediments are supply-side constraints, which require well-designed strategies and capacity-building efforts so that AGOA’s members can take full advantage of the program’s benefits.

Making the most of AGOA will also require improvement in the infrastructure – physical and institutional – necessary for promoting investment and facilitating trade. The issues that need to be addressed include the lack of reliable, affordable electricity, high transportation costs, and weak and inefficient trade-related facilities.

Consider the challenges faced by Brazzaville, in Congo, and Kinshasa, in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo. These two cities, separated by the Congo River, are expected to grow to a combined total of nearly 20 million residents by 2025. But, because of poor infrastructure and inefficient customs procedures, only 1.1% of Congo’s imports come from its neighbor.

According to the World Bank, getting a container across the Congo River costs almost $4,500, and the total can top $10,000 once the cost of inland transportation is added. By contrast, moving an identical container with the same cargo from Malaysia to Singapore costs less than $1,000.

Africa needs to build its capacity to trade competitively in today’s global economy.

Even as we consider how to make the most of AGOA’s historic renewal, we need to look beyond 2025 and imagine what a deeper, more mature economic partnership might entail.

As President Obama made clear at the US-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington, DC, a year ago, the US is not new to Africa. We have been engaged in Africa for decades, not as a colonial power, but as a partner. And that partnership is based not on extracting resources from the region, but on unlocking growth for all.

Design by Polyp

Design by Polyp

Does Greece Need a New Business Culture?

Edmund S. Phelps writes:   Too many politicians and economists blame austerity – urged by Greece’s creditors – for the collapse of the Greek economy. But the data show neither marked austerity by historical standards nor government cutbacks severe enough to explain the huge job losses. What the data do show are economic ills rooted in the values and beliefs of Greek society.

Greece’s public sector is rife with clientelism (to gain votes) and cronyism (to gain favors) – far more so than in other parts of Europe.

There are serious ills in the private sector, too – notably, the pervasive influence of vested interests and the country’s business and political elites. Profits as a share of business income in Greece are a whopping 46%.  Insiders receive subsidies and contracts, and outsiders find it hard to break in. Astoundingly, young Greek entrepreneurs reportedly fear to incorporate their firms in Greece, lest others use false documents to take away their companies.

This stunted system springs from Greece’s corporatist values, which emphasize social protection, solidarity instead of competition, and discomfort with uncontrolled change.

Greece saw productivity gains after World War II – but mostly from increases in education and capital per worker, which can go only so far. Two important sources of broad prosperity are blocked by Greece’s system. One is an abundance of entrepreneurs engaged in detecting and exploiting new economic opportunities.  The other source of broad prosperity is an abundance of business people engaged in conceiving and creating new products and processes.

Some economists believe that these structural considerations have nothing to do with Greece’s current crisis. In fact, a structuralist perspective illuminates what went wrong – and why.

For several years, Greece drew on the EU’s aptly named “structural funds” and on loans from German and French banks to finance a wide array of highly labor-intensive projects. Employment and incomes soared, and savings piled up. When that capital inflow stopped, asset prices in Greece fell, and so did demand for labor in the capital-goods sector.

With competition weak, entrepreneurs did not rush to hire the unemployed. When recovery began, political unrest last fall nipped confidence in the bud.

The truth is that Greece needs more than just debt restructuring or even debt relief. If young Greeks are to have a future in their own country, they and their elders need to develop the attitudes and institutions that constitute an inclusive modern economy – which means shedding their corporatist values.

Europe, for its part, must think beyond the necessary reforms of Greece’s pension system, tax regime, and collective-bargaining arrangements. While Greece has reached the heights of corporatism, Italy and France are not far behind – and not far behind them is Germany. All of Europe, not just Greece, must rethink its economic philosophy.

 Greek Entrepreneurs

Changing the Culture of Banks?

Jean Claude Trichet writes:   Banks and banking rely on trust. But while trust takes years to establish, it can be squandered abruptly if a particular bank’s ethics are weak, its values poor, and its behavior simply wrong.

The events that triggered the 2008 global financial crisis, together with the subsequent scandals that have emerged – from the rigging of the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) to sanctions-busting and money-laundering – amount to a catalog of cultural failures within our financial institutions. Yes, extensive measures have been taken since the crisis to strengthen the financial system. But a profound weakness remains: To be blunt, it concerns the risk-taking culture that still prevails within some departments of global banks and in the financial system itself.

We fail to start our examination of banks with definition of what a bank is.  A bank takes in other peoples’ money, which is why banks have to be regulated.  They hold and invest that money.  Earning 10-12 percent if considered reasonable.  Banks now try to earn %25 percent. They simply can’t do that legally.

Too often, bank bosses’ promises to change the “corporate culture” and ensure their employees’ good conduct have not been matched by fully effective implementation. In too many cases, banks are still failing to fulfill their obligations in serving their communities and the public at large.

More regulation is not necessarily the best path forward: The rules and norms that define a “right” and “wrong” culture are beyond the wit of regulators and supervisory bodies  It is not enough to strengthen legal compliance.  Real change must go to the core of an institution’s day-to-day operations. Banks must change compensation practices that reward excessive risk; protect whistleblowers; recruit and train staff to reflect proper ethics; and ensure that their boards of directors play a more active oversight role.

Employees must understand instinctively what may be done and what should never be done. They must internalize a culture that values strict adherence to high ethical standards of conduct.

Banking regulators and supervisors also have a decisive role to play. They need to work with boards and senior management to ensure that major reforms are implemented and then consistently applied. Regular exchanges of views between oversight officials and the banks should be regarded as a crucial component of this process.

Bank Regulation

 

Interest Rates and Deflation

Carmen Reinhart writes:   For the 189 countries for which data are available, median inflation for 2015 is running just below 2%, slightly lower than in 2014 and, in most cases, below the International Monetary Fund’s projections.

Most of the other half are not doing badly, either. In the period following the oil shocks of the 1970s until the early 1980s, almost two-thirds of the countries recorded inflation rates above 10%. According to the latest data, which runs through July or August for most countries, there are “only” 14 cases of high inflation (the red line in the figure). Venezuela (which has not published official inflation statistics this year) and Argentina (which has not released reliable inflation data for several years) figure prominently in this group. Iran, Russia, Syria, Ukraine, and a handful of African countries comprise the rest.

The risk for the world economy is actually tilted toward deflation for the 23 advanced economies in the sample, even eight years after the onset of the global financial crisis. For this group, the median inflation rate is 0.2% – the lowest since 1933.

While we do not know what might have happened were policies different, one can easily imagine that, absent quantitative easing in the United States, Europe, and Japan, those economies would have been mired in a deflationary post-crisis landscape akin to that of the 1930s.

Falling prices mean a rise in the real value of existing debts and an increase in the debt-service burden, owing to higher real interest rates. As a result, defaults, bankruptcies, and economic decline become more likely, putting further downward pressures on prices.

The  2.2% price decline in Greece for the 12 months ending in July – the most severe example of ongoing deflation in the advanced countries and counterproductive to an orderly solution to the country’s problems.

Median inflation rates for emerging-market and developing economies, which were in double digits through the mid-1990s, are now around 2.5% and falling. The sharp declines in oil and commodity prices during the latest supercycle have helped mitigate inflationary pressures, while the generalized slowdown in economic activity in the emerging world may have contributed as well.

But it is too early to conclude that inflation is a problem of the past, because other external factors are working in the opposite direction.

Given that most emerging-market countries’ trade is conducted in dollars, currency depreciation should push up import prices almost one for one.

At the end of the day, the US Federal Reserve will base its interest-rate decisions primarily on domestic considerations. While there is more than the usual degree of uncertainty regarding the magnitude of America’s output gap since the financial crisis, there is comparatively less ambiguity now that domestic inflation is subdued. The rest of the world shares that benign inflation environment.

Deflation

Normal Investors in the Art and Real Estate Markets

On the Rocky Road to Globalization

Kenneth Rogoff writes:  What impact will China’s slowdown have on the red-hot contemporary art market? That might not seem like an obvious question, until one considers that, for emerging-market investors, art has become a critical tool for facilitating capital flight and hiding wealth. These investors have become a major factor in the art market’s spectacular price bubble of the last several years. So, with emerging market economies from Russia to Brazil mired in recession, will the bubble burst?

Just five months ago, Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, said that contemporary art has become one of the two most important stores of wealth internationally, along with apartments in major cities such as New York, London, and Vancouver. Forget gold as an inflation hedge; buy paintings.

Pablo Picasso’s “Women of Algiers” sold for $179 million at a Christie’s auction in New York, up from $32 million in 1997. Okay, it’s a Picasso. Yet it is not even the highest sale price paid this year. A Swiss collector reportedly paid close to $300 million in a private sale for Paul Gauguin’s 1892 “When Will You Marry?”

For economists, the art bubble raises many fascinating questions.  Art is the last great unregulated investment opportunity.

Doesn’t China have a regime of strict capital controls that limits citizens from taking more than $50,000 per year out of the country? Yes, but there are many ways of moving money in and out of China, including the time-honored method of “under and over invoicing.” Many estimates put capital flight from China at about $300 billion annually in recent years.

For example, to get money out of China, a Chinese seller might report a dollar value far below what she was actually paid by a cooperating Western importer, with the difference being deposited into an overseas bank account. It is extremely difficult to estimate capital flight. Identifying capital flight is akin to the old adage about blind men touching an elephant: It is difficult to describe, but you will recognize it when you see it.

The art may well be spirited off to a temperature- and humidity-controlled storage vault in Switzerland or Luxembourg. Reportedly, some art sales today result in paintings merely being moved from one section of a storage vault to another, recalling how the New York Federal Reserve registers gold sales between national central banks.

So how, then, will the emerging-market slowdown radiating from China affect contemporary art prices? In the short run, the answer is ambiguous, because more money is leaking out of the country even as the economy slows. In the long run, the outcome is pretty clear, especially if one throws in the coming Fed interest-rate hikes. With core buyers pulling back, and the opportunity cost rising, the end of the art bubble will not be a pretty picture.

Capital Flight

Robert Frost: Something There is That Doesn’t Love a Wall

The Rocky Road to Globalization

Patrick Kingsley writes:  When you’re facing the world’s biggest refugee crisis since the second world war, it helps to have a sober debate about how to respond. But to do that, you need facts and data.

Far from being propelled by economic migrants, this crisis is mostly about refugees. Fleeing poverty is not considered by the international community as a good enough reason to move to another country. Whereas in fact, by the end of July, 62% of those who had reached Europe by boat this year were from Syria, Eritrea and Afghanistan, according to figures compiled by the UN. These are countries torn apart by war, dictatorial oppression, and religious extremism – and, in Syria’s case, all three. Their citizens almost always have the legal right to refuge in Europe. And if you add to the mix those coming from Darfur, Iraq, Somalia, and some parts of Nigeria – then the total proportion of migrants likely to qualify for asylum rises to well over 70%.
T
The migrants at Calais account for as little as 1% of those who have arrived in Europe so far this year. Estimates suggest that between 2,000-5,000 migrants have reached Calais.

Do migrants speed the collapse of the European social order? In reality, the number of migrants to have arrived so far this year (200,000) is so minuscule that it constitutes just 0.027% of Europe’s total population of 740 million. The world’s wealthiest continent can easily handle such a comparatively small influx.

The most obvious example is Lebanon, which is the-countries-with-the-most-refugees-per-1000-inhabitants. Lebanon is a country that is more than 100 times smaller than the EU has already taken in more than 50 times as many refugees as the EU will even consider resettling in the future.

This year, according to UN figures, 50% alone are from two non-African countries: Syria (38%) and Afghanistan (12%). When migrants from Pakistan, Iraq and Iran are added into the equation, it becomes clear that the number of African migrants is significantly less than half.

The EU opted to suspend full-scale maritime rescue operations in the Mediterranean in the belief that their presence was encouraging more migrants to risk the sea journey from Libya to Europe. In reality, people kept on coming. In fact, there was a 4% year-on-year increase during the months that the rescue missions were on hiatus. Over 27,800 tried the journey in 2015, or died in the attempt, until operations were reinstated in May, according to figures from the International Organisation for Migration. Only 26,740 tried it in 2014.

Is the solution to migration is to increase deportations? A billion has been blown on Europe-wide coordination efforts to secure European borders – money that could have been spent on integrating migrants into European society.

The proportion of refugees housed by developing countries in the past 10 years has risen, according to the UN, from 70% to 86%.

Immigration Issue

Natural Gas Boon for Egypt?

Keith Johnson writes:  The discovery of a giant natural gas field off the coast of Egypt is great news for that energy-starved nation, but it threatens to upend the grandiose energy dreams of neighbors like Israel and Cyprus.

Eni, an Italian energy firm, announced this week that it had discovered the largest gas field ever found in the Mediterranean, a “supergiant” basin that could hold as much as 30 trillion cubic feet of gas. If those early estimates are correct — and optimistic appraisals often give way to more sober analyses — it would be even larger than Leviathan, the giant offshore gas field that has fueled Israeli dreams of becoming a regional energy exporter. The new field, known as Zohr, will take at least three years to come online — and potentially longer if the country’s security situation continues to worsen — but it could then meet Egypt’s energy needs for decades and provide both an economic and political boost to President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

Fresh supplies of natural gas could help Sisi keep power plants and factories running, no small matter in a place where electricity blackouts sparked the political turmoil that helped bring down two of Egypt’s former leaders.

Eni’s new discovery, coupled with an announcement earlier this year by BP that it will invest $12 billion to develop existing Egyptian gas fields, amounts to a corporate endorsement of the economic reforms that Sisi has steadily pushed through. That includes paying off debt to foreign energy firms and starting to overhaul the domestic energy market by, for example, rolling back politically popular but ruinously expensive fuel subsidies.

If the gas find is potentially great news for Egypt, it could represent a blow to Egypt’s neighbors. Israel still has plans to turn its own massive offshore gas resources into a source of energy for the rest of the region. Israel and Egypt signed a deal last year under which Israel would export gas from the huge Leviathan field to Egypt; Israel inked similar deals to export gas to Jordan.

 

Cyprus, which had grand plans of its own to tap offshore gas fields and export fuel to Egypt and others, is putting a brave face on the news. Cypriot leaders, burned by disappointing drilling results in their waters so far, figure the massive Egyptian discovery augers well for the island’s own energy future because the Zohr prospect is just a few miles away from Cypriot waters and likely shares the same geology.

And the Zohr discovery won’t slam the door shut on Egyptian imports right away, leaving a few years of juicy prospects for other suppliers. Though Eni and Egyptian officials pledged to fast-track development of the field, it will take years to finance and build the infrastructure needed to fully tap it. Even that timeline could grow longer if Egypt’s security situation worsens, which could put a damper on foreign investment.

 

One final ripple from the Egyptian discovery could be a revival of talk about eastern Mediterranean countries supplying Turkey with natural gas. Both Cyprus and Israel looked at Turkey as a potential market, but politics as much as economics seemed to doom any deals.

Egypt's Natural Gas

The Economics of Aging

The economics of long lives

Gerardo P. Sicat writes: My comments are occasioned by the passing away of my mother-in-law last Saturday, at the age of 102 years and eight months. My own mother, who passed away a few years back, had lived up to the ripe age of 96 years.

Both mothers were born in the decade of the 1910s when life expectancy at birth was likely well below 60 years. Then, antibiotics and public health standards were very low and incomes and facilities also much worse.

Long lives. Barring the occurrence of accidents, catastrophes, wars and other life-shortening natural events , the economic and social milieus in which we live, in addition to one’s genes, have much to do on how long one eventually lives.

The improvement of incomes (through economic development and growth) help to lengthen lives, for this affords the individual better nutrition, infrastructure (social, physical and economic), and improved leisure and comfort.

At the other end, developments in the medical sciences and the advancement of public sanitation have life-extending influences on everyone.

The economics of life. Economists have advanced the proposition that in general, people balance the incomes they earn against their total expenditures in their lifetime. However, during specific stages of their lives, the patterns of income and expenditure differ.

 

In the last stage of life, that income earning capacity declines and eventually stops. As one lives beyond those productive years, the net earnings beyond the expenses of the past (which are savings) represent the sustenance that tide us over to the end of life.

Development and the improvement of social networks. The network of support for old age in traditional societies is often the family or the clan. As productive life ends and infirmities develop, the family becomes the principal support for their old folks.

With economic development, society through government, finds ways of extending social support networks to supplement the role of the family.

The most important feature of such social support networks are social security and universal medical insurance. Social security is paid for by taxation of individuals, otherwise, it becomes unsustainable for a society to bear.

Universal medical insurance is often undertaken through the insurance principle of actuarial equivalence. In this setup, the premiums collected are calculated to match the benefits received.

Government-sponsored social support networks affect the life cycle income. They help to augment the capacity to generate savings for the individual. For instance, social security contributions can raise the saving process. As a result, they enlarge the stream of pension incomes in the post-retirement stage.

In the Philippines,the social security fund thus generated can only provide a stream low pension payments.

The average pensioner in the Philippines receives less pension incomes compared to the “miracle” economies in East Asia.  Her husband was hardworking, competent and brilliant. He would become the chief magistrate of the land. He had also taught law for years to supplement his government pay. After the husband died, she continued to receive his social security pension.

Two decades later, as if by an act of God, legislation granting pensions for survivors of members of the judiciary. For my mother-in-law, this changed the situation very much. The cost of senior sustenance was more than adequately covered. However, when her final illnesses worsened and her medical condition became serious, that pension and previous savings from it were easily and totally consumed.

My mother’s case was uniquely different from my mother-in-law’s. From the beginning, she was the traditional housewife. Her life’s income was integrated with that of my father who was a small proprietorial businessman.

When my father died,  my mother continued the business. But she had no no social security pension like most small businessmen. She survived on what little remained.

During the 1970s, my mother migrated to the US where she joined my sisters who had migrated right after John F. Kennedy’s immigration liberalization.

In the US, my mother was very useful although she did not secure formal employment. As an elderly person, she received some welfare benefits from the State where she lived enabling her to sustain her own upkeep in old age even as she lived with her children.

 Bad Boss Pic 5

Does the EU Need a Circular Economy?

EU’s circular economy can help the union thrive.

Europe’s economy has generated unprecedented wealth over the past century. Part of the success is attributable to continuous improvements in resource productivity—a trend that has started to reduce Europe’s resource exposure. At the same time, resource productivity remains hugely underexploited as a source of wealth, competitiveness, and renewal. Our new study, Growth within: A circular economy vision for a competitive Europe,1 provides new evidence that a circular economy, enabled by the technology revolution, would allow Europe to grow resource productivity by up to 3 percent annually. This would generate a primary-resource benefit of as much as €0.6 trillion per year by 2030 to Europe’s economies. In addition, it would generate €1.2 trillion in nonresource and externality benefits, bringing the annual total benefits to around €1.8 trillion compared with today.

This would translate into a GDP increase of as much as seven percentage points relative to the current development scenario, with an additional positive impact on employment. Looking at the systems for three human needs (mobility, food, and the built environment), our study concludes that rapid technology adoption is necessary but not sufficient to capture the circular opportunity. Instead, circular principles must guide the transition differently from those that govern today’s economy. Pursued consistently, the economic promise is significant and the circular economy could qualify as the next major European political-economy project.

Europe’s economy remains very resource dependent. Views differ on how to address this against an economic backdrop of low and jobless growth as well as the struggle to reinvigorate competitiveness and absorb massive technological change.

Proponents of a circular economy argue that it offers Europe a major opportunity to increase resource productivity, decrease resource dependence and waste, and increase employment and growth. They maintain that a circular system would improve competitiveness and unleash innovation, and they see abundant circular opportunities that are inherently profitable but remain uncaptured.  Towards a Circular Economy

Solar Power Up in Hawaii. Pricing Bias?

Brittany Lyle writes:  Hawaii’s electricity prices are higher than anywhere else in the nation. The burdensome cost of power, paired with the island state’s plentiful sunshine, has led to an unparalleled adoption of residential rooftop solar energy. On the island of Oahu, where 80 percent of the state’s population lives, more than 12 percent of Hawaiian Electric Co. (HECO) customers have rooftop solar systems — about 20 times the solar penetration rate of any mainland utility. As homes increasingly morph into mini power plants, some residents are winding down their HECO bills to net zero.

The problem is this: When solar customers provide their own power, they don’t pay for the fixed costs the utility has outside of electricity generation. As more and more people switch to solar, an ever-shrinking pool of utility customers still connected to the grid are left to cover these operating and maintenance expenses. This causes bills to spike for traditional customers, which incentivizes even more people to switch to solar, raising bills for nonsolar customers even more. Every new rooftop solar installation added to the grid contributes to this cost shift.

‘It could be that all of the people living in apartments are going to be subsidizing the millionaires with their huge estates covered in rooftop solar. I don’t think we’re quite at that point yet, but we need to change or that’s where we’re headed.’
Oahu’s solar energy boom is unleashing what’s known in the industry as the utility death spiral. The prediction is that it will overwhelmingly hurt the most vulnerable people — namely those without control over their roof space, such as renters and apartment and condominium owners, as well as low- and moderate-income homeowners who can’t afford the high up-front cost of a rooftop solar installation.

“It could be that all of the people living in apartments are going to be subsidizing the millionaires with their huge estates covered in rooftop solar,” said Michael Roberts, an economics professor who studies electricity pricing at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. “I don’t think we’re quite at that point yet, but we need to change or that’s where we’re headed.”

In 2014, HECO’s nonsolar customers picked up the tab for an extra $53 million in operating and maintenance costs because so many people switched to solar. It is estimated that they will pay an additional $80 million in 2015.

As the island grapples with the task of making a biased energy pricing system more equitable, mainland utilities with large and growing solar energy bases in states like California, Arizona, New Jersey and Colorado are looking at Oahu and watching their future unfold.

In the basement of the faded 1934 cottage where he was raised, Kong thumbed through a filing cabinet in search of his utility bill records. Vintage Hawaiian slack key guitar music buzzed on an old radio. A small electric fan circulated warm air in the room.

A retired Pearl Harbor security guard, Kong inherited his childhood home. But he lives next door in a newer, five-bedroom house that he shares with his wife, two daughters, son-in-law, grandson and the occasional foreign exchange student. The house stands on a corner lot in Honolulu’s Kaimuki section, once an ostrich farm owned by the Kingdom of Hawaii’s royal doctor. Bordering the iconic Diamond Head volcano, it is one of the city’s oldest neighborhoods.

He pulled from his files his HECO bill from February. In time with the music, he tapped a finger next to the figure for the total due: $336. That’s a 53 percent increase from his bill for the same month two years earlier.

“I think about shutting the power down, putting the two refrigerators on a generator and using flashlight and candles,” Kong said. “If it wasn’t for the refrigerators, I’d shut the power off now when we go to sleep.”

solar panels, hawaii