Paying for the Refugees?

The New York Times editorilaizes on paying for refugees  The world’s attention has been riveted on the refugee crisis unfolding in Europe, and on the shift in Europe as leaders, finally, take steps to deal with it. But one of the reasons Syrians are risking their lives to reach Europe is that life has become unbearable in the countries closer to home.

About 12 million Syrians — more than half the country’s prewar population — have been displaced since fighting began in 2011. More than four million have fled the country, with most going to neighboring Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon. In Lebanon, Syrian refugees are now a quarter of the population.

These countries are overwhelmed and, as numbers have swelled, conditions for refugees have deteriorated sharply. One reason is that the United Nations agencies that provide vital food, medical care and shelter are, as the United Nations high commissioner for refugees, António Guterres, bluntly warned in July, “financially broke.”

As a direct result, the World Food Program has had to cut rations for 1.6 million Syrians, with refugees in Lebanon allocated just $13 a month.

There is also scant money for emergency medical care — including treating bullet and shrapnel wounds — let alone for treating preventable and other diseases. Many Syrian refugees are being forced to sacrifice housing or medical care to try to feed their families. Only 30 percent of Syrian children in Lebanon are in school. No wonder refugees who can gather the money to pay smugglers are risking the fraught journey to Europe.

We support welcoming refugees, but we also need to understand who is financing their movements.  Mexican drug lords collect money for the journey.  They are the ones who profit.  We need to address this problem at its root, as well as the humanitarian needs of families.

Refugee Problem

US Russia Trade in the Aleutians

Greg Schuessler writes:  Patricia Lekanoff-Gregory remembers when a delegation of American Unangax flew to Russia’s Komandorski Islands to meet their kin in the early 1990s.

Lekanoff-Gregory has traveled to the Komandorski Islands five times since her father’s journey. She’s hoping to go again in the coming months to help teach Russian Unangax traditional hat making.

While some other Native communities that straddle the Russia-U.S. border have protections that allow for direct visa-free travel between the countries, no such arrangement exists for the Unangax.

Signpost on Komandorski Island showing distances and directions to (among others): San Francisco, Nome, Sitka, Honolulu, Dutch Harbor and Pitcairn Island.

Signpost on Komandorski Island showing distances and directions to (among others): San Francisco, Nome, Sitka, Honolulu, Dutch Harbor and Pitcairn Island.

While the Iron Curtain divided Europe during the Cold War, the so-called Ice Curtain split indigenous communities straddling the U.S.-Russia border. During the Cold War, Russia’s Unangax in the Komandorskis were among the indigenous groups cut off from their kin in Alaska.

That all changed in 1989. The Iron Curtain fell, and the Ice Curtain melted. Alaskan and Russian Natives started traveling back and forth to each other’s communities.

About 17,000 people in the U.S. are Aleut. According to a 2010 census, there are only about 500 Aleuts in Russia.

Bringing Russian Unangax to cultural camps held each summer in the Aleutians is “a primary focus for us,” Gamble said, “because it’s a way for the folks in Russia to experience these camps and take what they learned back to Russia.”

Big Diomede Island in Russia, right background, as seen from Little Diomede Island in the U.S. state of Alaska, left foreground.
Big Diomede Island in Russia, right background, as seen from Little Diomede Island in Alaska, left foreground.

But now, Unangax leaders say, escalating tensions between Russia and the United States have hampered their efforts to reconnect across the border. Visas are taking longer to process, taking four to five weeks rather than two to three, and Gamble said he has heard reports that Russian Unangax doing work funded by his Anchorage-based association are facing government scrutiny and even harassment. Efforts to reach out to Unangax leaders in Russia were unsuccessful.

Russian visas for American citizens cost at least $160, and to visit the Russian Unangax, Lekanoff-Gregory will have to fly from her home in Unalaska to Anchorage before heading south to Los Angeles, then across the Pacific and north to Russia, where she will catch a flight to the Komandorskis, which are only 500 miles west of her home.

Another effort to reach across the border hampered by deteriorating relations between Russia and the U.S. The National Park Service has recently granted more than $80,000 to Iñupiat residents of the Alaskan village of Little Diomede — a tiny island in the Bering Sea separated by just 3 miles from Big Diomede, which is part of Russia — who are looking to reconnect with their relatives in Russia.

The Iñupiat residents of Big Diomede, who are related to those in Little Diomede, were moved to the Soviet mainland in 1948.

Igor Krupnik, an anthropologist with the Smithsonian Institution, said that it would have been easier to bring the Diomede residents together several years ago, before relations between Russia and the U.S. soured. It takes time to navigate the now rocky relations between the two countries, and time is something in short supply for the   Diomedes’ Iñupiat.Delores Gregory, Lekanoff-Gregory’s daughter, is active in traditional dance and has always wanted to visit the Russian Unangax.

Zimbabwe Needs Cash. Terms?

Should Zimbabwe reform its labor laws and revive the country’s industrial capacity if the country is to start experiencing an economic boom.

 Hundreds of companies have shut down since the disputed 2013 elections while more than 25,000 employees have lost their jobs this year alone, according to the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions.

Re-opening industries and reforming labor laws might act as catalysts in reviving the country’s moribund economy.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa said the government has asked for a meeting with international creditors that include the IMF, World Bank and the African Development Bank on the sidelines of the World Bank annual general meeting in Peru’s capital, Lima, so that Zimbabwe can present its case for fresh funding that it badly needs to inject into the economy.

The minister said the country is battling to clear its debt arrears that now amount to $1.8 billion. Authorities say the country’s debt overhang is hovering around $10 billion.

As a result of Zimbabwe’s failure to clear its debt, Harare is no longer accessing fresh lines of credit from international money lending institutions.

Chinamasa said the economic slowdown in China is also affecting trade between Harare and Beijing.

Zimbabwe's economy?

Will They or Won’t They? US Interest Rate Hike

Christine Lagarde comments on US Fed’s interest rate hike.  “The Fed has not raised interest rates in such a long time, that it should really do it for good, not give it a try and then have to come back,” Lagarde said.  “The IMF thinks that it is better to make sure that data are absolutely confirmed, that there is no uncertainty, neither on the price stability front nor on the employment and unemployment front, before it actually makes that move,” she said. Traders are torn on when the Fed will raise interest rates. The Fed could raise or hold rates when it meets on Sept. 16 and Sept. 17.

Investors scaled back expectations for the US’s first rate increase since 2006 after a sell-off in China became a global stock-market rout. The Fed’s key interest rate has been frozen since  2008. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer gave a mixed review of the latest US jobs report in a briefing to G20 officials, Luxembourg Minister of Finance Pierre Gramegna said:  “He told us that the numbers in the US are excellent because unemployment went down from 5.3% to 5.1%, which is an excellent number, but then he immediately cautioned that the number of 173,000 additional jobs was an August figure and that the August figure wasn’t very reliable,” Gramegna said. Emerging-market officials at the G20 were divided on whether it is better for the Fed to tighten its policy this month or later on, saying that there were “both sentiments in the room,” he said.

The gain in payrolls, while less than forecast, followed advances in July and June that were stronger than previously reported, the US Department of Labor.  The jobless rate was the lowest since April 2008. The strength of the economy and the jobs market has yet to lift inflation up to the Fed’s 2% target. Prices in the U.S. rose 0.3% in the 12 months through July, measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge. Inflation has lingered below the Fed’s target for more than three years.

US Fed Interest Rate Hike

Peace in Cyprus?

Martti Ahtisaari writes: The division of Cyprus may be moving toward resolution. For the first time since 2004, there is a fragile alignment of the political stars over the eastern Mediterranean.

There has been little reason for optimism during the decade that has passed since the last serious attempt to overcome the island’s division. The proposal in 2004 by then-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan would have united the island by creating a federation of two states. But while Turkish Cypriots embraced the so-called Annan Plan, Greek Cypriots rejected it in a referendum one week before the Republic of Cyprus entered the European Union.

In 2008, there was an attempt to revive the peace effort, after the moderate Demetris Christofias replaced Tassos Papadopoulos as the Greek Cypriot president; but the process soon lost steam. In 2014, the discovery of vast energy reserves in the waters between Cyprus and Israel led some to hope that peace would soon be at hand; but the potential energy bonanza ended up aggravating tensions. Last fall, Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades called a halt to the peace process, citing Turkish brinkmanship over rights to gas exploration.

This time, it is a political development on the Turkish side that has improved the outlook for peace. The election in April of Turkish Cypriot President Mustafa Akinci has brought a breath of fresh air to the island. Akinci, a former leftist mayor of northern Nicosia, known for his steadfast commitment to peace in Cyprus, immediately brought about a change in the relationship between the two communities.

Anastasiades had, in 2004, campaigned in favor of the Annan Plan, and Akinci’s election seems to have reawakened his counterpart’s desire for an accord. Over the last few months, the two leaders have agreed on a package of confidence-building measures, including two new crossing points along the Green Line that divides the island; improved mobile, radio, and electricity connections; and mechanisms for business and cultural cooperation. In an unprecedented move, the two presidents, strolled together in Nicosia’s old town, crisscrossing the Green Line. Above all, they vowed to resume peace negotiations.

When talks resumed in earnest in May, both presidents were directly involved, their participation having been facilitated by UN Special Adviser on Cyprus Espen Barth Eide. Anastasiades and Akinci are committed to reaching an agreement within months, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has called on them to forge an accord by the end of 2015.

To be sure, there is no guarantee that a deal will be struck. Plenty of details remain to be hammered out. The agreement is likely to entail greater territorial adjustments than were called for under the Annan Plan, as well as modernized security guarantees, a phasing out of settlement and property restrictions, and clearer and more decentralized governing arrangements. But, though the negotiations will be tough, even the conflict’s most hardened observers recognize that peace may now be within reach.  

Cyprus

How Large are China’s Investments in Africa?

Wenjie Chen, David Dollar and Heiwei Tang write:  China continues to generate controversy with its rapidly growing investments in Africa. However, new research reveals that some of the West’s biggest concerns over Chinese investment—its true size, its focus on natural resources, and its disregard for good governance—are not always well grounded.

China has emerged as Africa’s largest trading partner, providing demand for the continent’s energy and minerals. At the same time, there is a growing volume of Chinese direct investment in Africa. Some of it has taken the form of high-profile natural resource deals in countries with poor track records of governance (e.g., Angola and Sudan). These developments have given rise to a number of ideas about Chinese investment in Africa:  That it is on the same enormous scale as China’s trade; that it is aimed primarily at natural resources; and that it is concentrated in countries with poor governance.First, on the scale of China’s direct investment in Africa,

Chinese statistics on what they call “overseas direct investment” (ODI) show a stock of $26 billion in Africa as of the end of 2013. This number would amount to about 3 percent of total foreign direct investment (FDI) on the continentSecond, concerning natural resources, in our paper we examine the allocation across African countries of the stock of Chinese ODI and the stock of total FDI (which, as noted, mostly comes from Western countries). Other things equal, African countries that are more resource rich attract more Chinese investment. However, this effect is about the same for Western investment, and it is only one factor determining investment. For example, Chinese ODI is also influenced by the size of the domestic market, indicating that some of it is aimed at serving that market.

We go beyond the aggregate data and also work with the firm-level data compiled by China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). capital-scarce countries, suggesting its importance as a source of external financing to the continent.  China’s Investment in Africa

China in Africa

 

Gender Equality Boosts Workforce

Christine Lagarde says gender parity can boos workforce by 27%.  India’s GDP can expand by a whopping 27 per cent if the number of female workers increases to the same level as that of men, International Monetary Fund’s chief Christine Lagarde said today.

This is much higher than the positive impact a 50-50 gender parity in workforce can have on the economies of the US and Japan at 5 per cent and 9 per cent respectively.

Speaking at the launch of W20, a grouping of women leaders from the world’s 20 largest economies including India,

Gender Equality

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Jail Bankers. Put Muscle in Criminal Pleas

Is it in the interest of senior bankers to violate the law?  William K. Black writes:  The parent organizations of five of the world’s biggest banks will plead guilty to rigging global currency markets rattled the financial markets. But it also raised concerns about whether fines and settlements are effective deterrents to fraudulent behavior.

The five banks will pay the U.S. Justice Department and the Federal Reserve fines totaling $5.6 billion as they agreed to plead guilty to colluding to manipulate currency and interest rate markets. Yet, they could continue to do business as usual, thanks to settlement terms and waivers against stiffer actions from the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

At  UBS, the latest case is the third act of rigging it has confessed to in the last five years. “The only thing that could save UBS is to have a crackdown by somebody external that gets rid of this assorted group of managers.”

Here is a snapshot of what the four banks detailed in their plea agreements, according to a U.S. Justice Department press release: “Members of ‘The Cartel’ manipulated the euro-dollar exchange rate by agreeing to withhold bids or offers for euros or dollars to avoid moving the exchange rate in a direction adverse to open positions held by co-conspirators. By agreeing not to buy or sell at certain times, the traders protected each other’s trading positions by withholding supply of or demand for currency and suppressing competition in the FX market.”

The foreign exchange and Libor bid-rigging cases individually are the largest cartels by three orders of magnitude in world financial history.

Here is how the fines add up to $5.6 billion: The banks will pay $2.5 billion in criminal penalties for manipulating currency rates, plus another $1.6 billion in fines payable to the Federal Reserve. The remainder will come from penalties of $1.3 billion that Barclays will pay U.S. and British regulators and $203 million that UBS will pay for manipulating interest rates.

The whiff of big money is a factor to think about for regulators.  said Nichols.  The amount of money that moves through the foreign exchange market in one day is almost twice the value of the economic output of the U.K. in one year.

U.S. regulators protect bankers from winding up in jail.  Banks negotiate in advance that a guilty plea will not be what a guilty plea would normally be.

Was stronger action was warranted in the case of UBS?  Should banks secure waivers against stern action. “The rule with large banks is that the SEC always waives – it doesn’t matter how bad [the violations are],” he said. “This is a serial recidivism.” He noted that one SEC commissioner is working to prevent routine waivers that the SEC grants.

 

Possible remedies:  Put a fraudulently controlled bank in receivership.  Receivership should probably be an option only for banks that seem irredeemable, and it might make more sense for most banks to just create a better internal culture.

Unlike with bribers, bankers do not face the risk of imprisonment. The material rewards for violating the rules and the trust of clients are huge, while the risk is almost nonexistent.

Jail Bankers?

 

Warren and Corruption in US

  • Pam Martens and Russ Martens write:  The Insurance Industry Pays Incentives Like a Mercedes-Benz Lease to Push Annuity Sales

Increasingly it feels to Americans that the bulk of the news about scams to separate them from their life savings is coming from one Senator from Massachusetts — Elizabeth Warren.

Ripoffs in financial services, insurance, and real estate – known as F.I.R.E. on Wall Street – are being exposed by Warren, typically in bold pronouncements in Senate Banking hearings where Warren has a chair and a respected voice, and are rapidly amplified in the media.

In 2013, it was only because of Senator Warren that we learned that the so-called Independent Foreclosure Reviews to settle the claims of 4 million homeowners who had been illegally foreclosed on by the bailed out Wall Street banks were a sham. The “independent” consultants were hired by the banks, paid by the banks, and the banks themselves were allowed to determine the number of victims.

It was Senator Warren who put the high frequency trading scam described in the Michael Lewis book, “Flash Boys,” into layman’s language.

“High frequency trading reminds me a little of the scam in Office Space. You know, you take just a little bit of money from every trade in the hope that no one will complain. But taking a little bit of money from zillions of trades adds up to billions of dollars in profits for these high frequency traders and billions of dollars in losses for our retirement funds and our mutual funds and everybody else in the market place. It also means a tilt in the playing field for those who don’t have the information or have the access to the speed or big enough to play in this game.”

In 2013, Warren, together with Senators John McCain, Maria Cantwell and Angus King, introduced the “21st Century Glass-Steagall Act.” Warren explained why the legislation is critically needed:

“By separating traditional depository banks from riskier financial institutions,” said Warren, “the 1933 version of Glass-Steagall laid the groundwork for half a century of financial stability. During that time, we built a robust and thriving middle class. But throughout the 1980’s and 1990’s, Congress and regulators chipped away at Glass-Steagall’s protections, encouraging growth of the megabanks and a sharp increase in systemic risk. They finally finished the task in 1999 with the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which eliminated Glass-Steagall’s protections altogether.”

Nine years later, the financial system crashed, leaving the economy in the worst condition since the Great Depression.  Warren and Wall Street

Elizabeth Warren Against Corruption