Emerging Economies’ Debt

IMF meetings in Lima, Peru suggest that debt in emerging countries if difficult to measure and even find.  Yet this debt is an important factor in evaluating these economies.

Carmen Reinhart writes:  When central bankers and finance ministers from around the globe gathered for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings here in Lima, Peru, which ended on Sunday, the emerging world was rife with symptoms of increasing economic vulnerability. Gone are the days when IMF meetings were monopolised by the problems of the advanced economies struggling to recover from the 2008 financial crisis. Now, the discussion has shifted back toward emerging economies, which face the risk of financial crises of their own.

While no two financial crises are identical, all tend to share some telltale symptoms: a significant slowdown in economic growth and exports, the unwinding of asset-price booms, growing current-account and fiscal deficits, rising leverage, and a reduction or outright reversal in capital inflows. To varying degrees, emerging economies are now exhibiting all of them.

The turning point came in 2013, when the expectation of rising interest rates in the United States and falling global commodity prices brought an end to a multi-year, capital-inflow bonanza that had been supporting emerging economies’ growth. China’s recent slowdown, by fuelling turbulence in global capital markets and weakening commodity prices further, has exacerbated the downturn throughout the emerging world.

These challenges, while difficult to address, are at least discernible. But emerging economies may also be experiencing another common symptom of an impending crisis, one that is much tougher to detect and measure: hidden debts.

Sometimes connected with graft, hidden debts do not usually appear on balance sheets or in standard databases. Their features morph from one crisis to the next, as do the players involved in their creation. As a result, they often go undetected, until it is too late.

Indeed, it was not until after the eruption of the 1994-1995 peso crisis that the world learned that Mexico’s private banks had taken on a significant amount of currency risk through off-balance-sheet borrowing (derivatives). Likewise, before the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the IMF and financial markets were unaware that Thailand’s central-bank reserves had been nearly depleted (the $33 billion total that was reported did not account for commitments in forward contracts, which left net reserves of only about $1 billion). And, until Greece’s crisis in 2010, the country’s fiscal deficits and debt burden were thought to be much smaller than they were, thanks to the use of financial derivatives and creative accounting by the Greek government.

So the great question today is where emerging-economy debts are hiding. And, unfortunately, there are severe obstacles to exposing them – beginning with the opaqueness of China’s financial transactions with other emerging economies over the past decade.

During its domestic infrastructure boom, China financed major projects – often connected to mining, energy, and infrastructure – in other emerging economies. Given that the lending was denominated primarily in US dollars, it is subject to currency risk, adding another dimension of vulnerability to emerging-economy balance sheets.

But the extent of that lending is largely unknown, because much of it came from development banks in China that are not included in the data collected by the Bank for International Settlements (the primary global source for such information). And, because the loans were rarely issued as securities in international capital markets, it is not included in, say, World Bank databases, either.

Even where data exists, the figures must be interpreted with care.

Other forms of borrowing – such as trade finance, which is skewed toward shorter maturities – are not included in these figures. Currency-swap agreements, which have been important for Brazil and Argentina, must also be added to the list. (This highlights the importance of tracking net, rather than gross, reserves.)

In short, though emerging economies’ debts seem largely moderate by historic standards, it seems likely that they are being underestimated, perhaps by a large margin. If so, the magnitude of the ongoing reversal in capital flows that emerging economies are experiencing may be larger than is generally believed – potentially large enough to trigger a crisis. In this context, keeping track of opaque and evolving financial linkages is more important than ever.

Debt in emerging countries

Harvard Deals with Frothy Markets?

Managers of Harvard’s endowment are looking for help in preparing for the market’s downside.

Lucinda Shen writes: America’s largest university endowment wants more money managers who will bet on a stock falling.

The chief executive of Harvard Management Company, which manages the university’s $37.6 billion endowment, on Tuesday warned about “potentially frothy markets.”

Stephen Blythe added that the endowment is now looking for stock managers that will short stocks as well as go long.

“We have renewed focus on identifying public equity managers with demonstrable investment expertise on both the long and short sides of the market,” he said.

In an annual letter to investors, Blyth wrote that the market “presents various challenges to investors” and that it is time to proceed “with caution in several areas of the portfolio.”

The endowment returned 5.8% through June 30, though the performance of the absolute return portfolio was underwhelming. The $6 billionportfolio returned 0.1% in fiscal year 2015. That compares to a benchmark of 3.5%, according to the report.

Blyth said the endowment was seeking to decrease exposure to equities and inflation and increase exposure to the dollar, bonds, and the high yield market.

How to Deal with Frothy Markets?

Shell Companies in the Seychelles

An Indian-born oligarch who purchased M.C. Hammer’s former mansion in California may have followed the previous owner into decadence and bankruptcy, but, unlike the bejeweled and balloon-panted rapper, this flamboyant figure appears to have benefited from the relaxed laws of an island nation to keep his assets out of the hands of his creditors.

Once the owner of an estimated $3 billion business empire, largely founded on India’s telecom industry, Chinnakannan Sivasankaran, or Siva as his friends call him, filed for bankruptcy in August 2014 in Seychelles, following his loss, in British High Court, of a civil case brought against him by an erstwhile partner, a subsidiary of the Bahrain Telecommunications Company, or Batelco.

It was decided that Siva and his Bermuda-registered company Siva Limited should pay the Gulf-based company $212 million by June 26, 2014.

However, even before the trial began, the oligarch used his Seychellois citizenship to arrange a swift legal split from his wife, to whom he then transferred at least $95 million in assets—39 plots of land, one island and numerous corporate holdings registered in Seychelles and the British Virgin Islands, including those that owned even more real estate—as part of the divorce settlement.  Not that bankruptcy would have necessarily hurt Batelco’s chances of recovering their money under Seychelles’ prior law on insolvency. But about a year after Siva lost his case in Britain, the island nation “reformed” its bankruptcy statute.

The story highlights the role of questionable offshore tax shelters, of which Seychelles is a small but hyper-caffeinated example, in allowing an international elite to transcend borders and sovereign jurisdictions in order to safeguard their assets.

The 59-year-old Siva first rose to prominence in India’s southern state of Tamil Nadu in the mid-1980s after he acquired Sterling Computers and sold cut-rate PCs in a burgeoning subcontinental tech industry, transforming the company into one of India’s top three in its field. Frequently adorned with gold Rolexes and known for his obsession with health food and personal fitness, Siva formerly lived and worked out of presidential suites at the Ritz Carlton and Pan Pacific hotels in Singapore.

Over the past four decades, he’s had a hand in all sorts of things: engineering, shipping, commodities trading, and alternative energy. According to NGO Grain, an international nonprofit that supports small farmers, his Siva Group gobbled up about “a million hectares of land in the Americas, Africa and Asia, primarily for oil palm plantations,” making him “one of the world’s largest farmland holders.”

Siva aimed to set up a new U.S. operation by relocating to Fremont, California, in 1996, buying M.C. Hammer’s mansion following the latter’s own loss of fortune, but by the mid-2000s, he opted to move to Seychelles and became a full citizen. This decision was followed almost immediately by his nomination as ambassador-at-large.

In a 2008 U.S. State Department cable alleged that Siva was part of a Seychellois “business mafia” that was buying land from the Seychelles government at the expense of a battered and hopelessly corrupt national economy—this, as the nation was seeking bailouts from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

Designed by Rachel Gold

Designed by Rachel Gold

California Out of Coal

California Governor Jerry Brown has had a busy week.  California pension funds will no longer invest in coal,  a big step forward to a better environment.

The new law will affect $58 million held by the California Public Employees’ Retirement System and $6.7 million in the California State Teachers Retirement System, a tiny fraction of their overall investments. The funds are responsible for providing benefits to more than 2.5 million current and retired employees.

De León pitched the measure as a way to emphasize more secure, environmentally friendly investments.

“Coal is a losing bet for California retirees and it’s also incredibly harmful to our health and the health of our environment,” he said in a statement.

In response to the news, executive director of 350.org May Boeve, whose group has led the charge for institutional divestment, championed the effort in California.

“This is a big win for our movement, and demonstrates the growing strength of divestment campaigners around the world,” said Boeve. “California’s step today gives us major momentum, and ramps up pressure on state and local leaders in New York, Massachusetts, and across the U.S. to follow suit—and begin pulling their money out of climate destruction too.”

Jerry Brown Ends Coal Investment

Megabucks and US Politics

In the US, money flows freely into the political arena.   Citizens who object to this river work to overcome a Supreme Court decision that corporations are people.  It seems to the editors of this website that we would be better off shortening the political season and making politics open to all comers.  Newton Minow, who was head of the FCC, suggested free media time   Shortening the season would also help.  Turns out currently 158 families are contributing astronomical sums, most of them to Republican candidates.

Now they are deploying their vast wealth in the political arena, providing almost half of all the seed money raised to support Democratic and Republican presidential candidates. Just 158 families, along with companies they own or control, contributed $176 million in the first phase of the campaign, a New York Times investigation found. Not since before Watergate have so few people and businesses provided so much early money in a campaign, most of it through channels legalized by the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision five years ago.

These donors’ fortunes reflect the shifting composition of the country’s economic elite. Relatively few work in the traditional ranks of corporate America, or hail from dynasties of inherited wealth. Most built their own businesses, parlaying talent and an appetite for risk into huge wealth: They founded hedge funds in New York, bought up undervalued oil leases in Texas, made blockbusters in Hollywood. More than a dozen of the elite donors were born outside the United States, immigrating from countries like Cuba, the old Soviet Union, Pakistan, India and Israel.

But regardless of industry, the families investing the most in presidential politics overwhelmingly lean right, contributing tens of millions of dollars to support Republican candidates who have pledged to pare regulations; cut taxes on income, capital gains and inheritances; and shrink entitlement programs. While such measures would help protect their own wealth, the donors describe their embrace of them more broadly, as the surest means of promoting economic growth and preserving a system that would allow others to prosper, too.

Mega donors to US politicians

Mega donors to US politicians

Finding A Place for China in TPP

China belongs in the TPP.

The Bloomberg editorial board writes:  Some are hailing the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement as a win for American leadership and a defeat for China. Complacency of that kind is shortsighted — and the suggestion that China should be prevented from joining the system in future, which seems to follow, is not just myopic but blind.

Bringing China into the TPP will take time and won’t be easy, but it would serve everybody’s interests. It isn’t too soon to start planning for that goal.

U.S. President Barack Obama has rightly been careful to leave the door open. Next, it’s true, he faces a difficult selling job in Congress — and that task wouldn’t have been any easier if China had already been part of the deal. Nonetheless, a TPP without China would be a huge missed opportunity.

A careful study has estimated that widening the TPP from 12 to 17 countries — adding China, Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines and Thailand — would triple the deal’s global benefits. Bringing in China, the world’s biggest trading nation, would further strengthen the TPP’s promise as the template for an even wider global agreement.

For all the focus on trade in manufacturing, the biggest potential for gains may lie in services. China’s services sector is one of the world’s most restricted, and a lowering of those barriers would benefit U.S. suppliers handsomely. (According to one estimate, they’d gain another $218 billion by 2025.) China would get better access to the U.S. market in return. More important, though, liberalizing China’s trade in services would hasten the reform of its domestic services providers, dominated today by inefficient state-owned companies jealous of their privileges.

That’s exactly why many Chinese reformers want their country to join the TPP. Efforts at reform have lost momentum lately, with good progress seen in less than a quarter of the 113 areas designated by Beijing. Ring-fenced experiments such as the Shanghai free-trade zone haven’t delivered as hoped. The TPP’s requirements would encourage the government to pick up the pace. The result would be a more productive and stable Chinese economy — good for everyone.

Beijing is discovering the limits of going its own way. Its efforts to set up a regional free-trade agreement without the U.S. are looking less promising. Its new infrastructure bank won’t do much to promote reform at home. Its “one belt, one road” scheme to build infrastructure linking China to the Middle East and Europe offers less potential than greater access to U.S. and Japanese markets.

A TPP that advances the cause of Chinese economic reform and at the same time binds the country into a rule-based multilateral order would be quite a prize. It’s a challenge for China’s leaders, to be sure. They should be given every encouragement to rise to it.

China Into TPP?

US Plays Catch Up on Digital Privacy

California’s governor Jerry Brown has signed into law the most sweeping and stringent digital privacy law in the country on Thursday.

The American Civil Liberties Union called it a “landmark victory for digital privacy.”

In essence, the law requires a warrant before any business turns over any of its clients’ metadata or digital communications to the government.

Wired reports:

“State senators Mark Leno (D-San Francisco) and Joel Anderson (R-Alpine) wrote the legislation earlier this year to give digital data the same kinds of protection that non-digital communications have.

“‘For what logical reason should a handwritten letter stored in a desk drawer enjoy more protection from warrantless government surveillance than an email sent to a colleague or a text message to a loved one?’ Leno said earlier this year. ‘This is nonsensical and violates the right to liberty and privacy that every Californian expects under the constitution.’

“The bill enjoyed widespread support among civil libertarians like the American Civil Liberties Union and the Electronic Frontier Foundation as well as tech companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, Dropbox, LinkedIn, and Twitter, which have headquarters in California. It also had huge bipartisan support among state lawmakers.”

The ACLU said it hopes the California Electronic Communications Privacy Act becomes a model for other states.

Under the federal Electronic Privacy Communication Act, the government can access digital data using a subpoena instead of a warrant. The paper adds:

“While federal agencies and the Justice Department say they don’t use the authority because of prior case law, technology companies say it creates uncertainty as they try to repair customer trust after the 2013 U.S. surveillance leaks from Edward Snowden.

“In Congress, legislation to updated the act has more than 300 cosponsors, but it has not received any committee or floor action in either chamber.”

DIgital Privacy

Entrepreneur Alert: US Commerce Secretary Pritzker Pitch Perfect in Cuba

If Fidel Castro had promised to deliver baseball prospects to the Texas Ranger, US President George W. Bush may have insisted on lifting the embargos on Cuba.  But we had to wait for Chicago Cubs fan, US Secretary of Commerce, to make the best pitch.

The U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker wrapped up a two-day visit to Cuba.

Cuba banned all private enterprise and foreign investment following Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution and the U.S. trade embargo still prohibits most U.S. economic activity with the Communist-run island.

But the warming of relations between the two countries, Pritzker said, indicated more U.S. economic activity in the off-limits island could soon be a reality.

“The government officials I have met with have been very forward leaning and wanting more American direct investment,” Pritzker said.

Pritzker met with the country’s ministers of foreign affairs and foreign investment and toured Mariel, the site of a $1 billion investment to create what Cuban officials hope will become a major shipping hub in the Caribbean.

She is the second U.S. cabinet official to visit the island since Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution. In August, Secretary of State John Kerry traveled to the island to officially re-open the U.S. Embassy in Havana.

Pritzker cautioned that Cuban government red tape — like a requirement that all international companies contract their employees through the state-run agencies —  limits foreign investment.

“We don’t understand how is it that you hire people, how does it work?” she said. “Imagine if you are a business owner. You want to hire who you want to hire.”

Despite the differences that remain, U.S. and Cuban officials have both said there are plenty of areas where the countries can collaborate.

 caricature_fidel_castro

Can VW’s Soul be Restored?

Is this the end of the people’s car?

Bernhard Rieger writes:  The US  Environmental Protection Agency’s announcement on September 18 that Volkswagen had manipulated diesel engines during emissions tests sent shockwaves around the Western world. Facing hefty fines in the United States and elsewhere, the corporation soon revealed that no fewer than 11 million of its vehicles were powered by an engine that it had previously praised as ecologically friendly and now revealed as a generator of hazardous exhaust. The company’s stock took a dive, CEO Martin Winterkorn had to resign, and drivers on both sides of the Atlantic filed class action lawsuits. German engineering, once a catchword for excellence, has now gained a set of decidedly undesirable connotations.

Beyond anger, the international response to Volkwagen’s fraud has been tinged with disbelief. Politicians, experts, and ordinary citizens alike have struggled to comprehend why Volkswagen, of all companies, engaged in systematic cheating. Observers were not only flabbergasted that a high-profile car manufacturer had risked sizeable fines from regulators as well as claims for damages by consumers, stockholders, and dealers. They were also stunned at the reputational risk. For Volkswagen, as a U.S.-marketing expert pointed out, being caught cheating was “significantly damaging” because “this is such an iconic brand.” In Germany, the business-friendly Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung simply declared that Volkswagen had lost its “honor”—a concept rarely evoked in the context of global corporate giants.

Volkswagen thus finds itself at the center not just of an economic disaster, but a moral scandal of international reach.

Now, by manipulating emissions data for years, Volkswagen did more than cheat regulators and customers. Given its extraordinarily rich and long-standing reputation for quality and dependability, Volkswagen committed a cardinal sin against its own identity. It blemished its “corporate soul,” as historian Roland Marchand called the intangible aura surrounding those enterprises that manage to project themselves in the public sphere as socially and economically responsible agents. To regain customers’ trust, public penance will not be enough. Rather, it will need to undertake demonstrable reforms to assure the public that there are robust internal procedures to prevent fraud. Only then will Volkswagen be in a position to build anew.  The End of the Beetle

Porsche Volkswagen

Lagarde Advocates Carbon Tax

Christine Lagarde says it’s time for a carbon tax.

Christine Lagarde said it was also the “right moment” to eliminate energy subsidies, which the IMF says will cost the world USD 5.3 trillion this year – 6.5 per cent of the global economy.

The time is right for governments to introduce taxes on carbon emissions, which would help fight global warming and raise badly needed revenue, IMF chief Christine Lagarde has said.

“It is just the right moment to introduce carbon taxes,” Lagarde said at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Lima, Peru yesterday.

The issue is in the spotlight two months from a key United Nations conference in Paris tasked with delivering a comprehensive carbon-cutting pact to save the planet from the potentially catastrophic impact of global warming.

Besides discouraging pollution, Lagarde said, taxing greenhouse gas emissions would have the added bonus of helping governments boost their revenues at a time when many countries have dipped heavily into their “fiscal buffers” to get through a prolonged rough patch for the global economy.

“Finance ministers are looking for revenues. That’s the fate of finance ministers. But it’s particularly the case at the moment because many have already used a lot of their fiscal buffers… and are always in need of some fiscal buffers in order to fight the next crisis,” she said.

Lagarde urged governments to tax carbon emissions rather than rely on emissions trading, a competing system already in place in Europe in which governments essentially issue permits to pollute that can then be traded on an open market.

“I know that a lot of people would rather do emissions trading systems, but we believe that carbon taxation would be a lot better,” she said.

Lagarde said revenues from carbon taxes could contribute to rich nations’ funding target of USD 100 billion a year by 2020 to help poorer nations fight the impacts of climate change.

The world was still USD 38 billion short of that target last year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a new report.

Carbon Tax