Take RIsk out of Executive Pay?

Executive compensation is set by managers themselves to maximise their own pay, rather than by boards on behalf of shareholders. Indeed, many commentators argue that executives’ pay schemes were major contributors to the financial crisis, encouraging them to take on too much risk and manage their company for short-term profit. In response, President Obama has proposed new executive compensation rules for firms seeking government aid. However, several critics have argued that the recent changes are politically motivated and focus on the level of pay, rather than the incentive structures (e.g. the relative amount of cash versus shares), which have the greatest economic impact.

Existing schemes have two main problems. First, stock and options typically have short vesting periods, allowing executives to “cash out” early. For example, Angelo Mozilo, the former CEO of Countrywide Financial, made $129 million from stock sales in the twelve months prior to the start of the subprime crisis. This encourages managers to pump up the short-term stock price at the expense of long-run value – for instance by originating risky loans, scrapping investment projects, or manipulating earnings – because they can liquidate their holdings before the long-run damage appears. Long-term incentives must be provided for the manager to maximise long-term value, which we call the “long-horizon principle.”

Second, current schemes fail to keep pace with a firm’s changing conditions. If a company’s stock price plummets, stock options are close to worthless and have little incentive effect – precisely at the time when managerial effort is particularly critical. This problem may still exist even if the executive has only shares and no options. Consider a CEO who is paid $4 million in cash and $6 million in stock. If the share price halves, his stock is now worth $3 million. Exerting effort to improve firm value by 1% now increases his pay by only $30,000 rather than $60,000 and may provide insufficient motivation. To maintain incentives, the CEO must be forced to hold more shares after firm value declines. Our research has shown that, to motivate a manager, a given percentage increase in firm value (say 10%) must generate a sufficiently high percentage increase in pay (say 6%). In the above example, this is achieved by ensuring that, at all times, 60% of the manager’s pay is stock. We call this the “constant percentage principle.” The appropriate proportion will vary across firms depending on their industry and life cycle, but we estimate 60% as a ballpark number for the average firm.

Alex Edmans and Xavier Cabaix write that two principles should govern executive pay:  Rebalancing to address the constant percentage principle and gradual vesting to satisfy the long-horizon principle.  Executive Compensation

Executive Pay

Pushing for Public Banks

Alexis Goldsmotih writes:  A group of Americans with a different agenda for the future of banking-people are pushing hard for policy change. They’re advocates of public banking, and they want to see new banks created that would be owned and operated by the government, usually at the state or city level. (This would greatly increase the amount of investment capital available for small business development, local infrastructure, and affordable public transportation, none of which are much favored by private banks seeking a high return on investment.).

Gwendolyn Hallsmith is one of those advocates. She’s currently the executive director of the Public Banking Institute, but she worked previously as a public servant in Montpelier, Vermont, where she resides and ran for mayor in 2014. Hallsmith also spent some time in divinity school, and you can hear it in her voice-which is soft but strong and deliberately paced.

To Hallsmith, the main advantage of a public bank is lower-cost financing, which can enable the state to pay for things like building affordable housing, repairing infrastructure, and expanding educational opportunities. And each of these projects creates jobs.

Hallsmith said: Public banks “allow cities, counties, and states to finance important public priorities without needing to rely on Wall Street and pay the hidden interest tax that Wall Street imposes on all our money.”

The quest to achieve public banking at the state and local level has been a long slog. Until quite recently, you had to go back almost 100 years to find the last major victory: the founding of the bank of North Dakota, the only state-run public bank in the United States, which was established in 1919.

But interest has been picking up around the country. Santa Fe, New Mexico, voted in October to conduct a study on the feasibility of a city-run public bank. And in December, the Seattle City Council’s finance committee hosted experts in public banking to explore the topic.

But nowhere have the steps toward public banking been more successful than in the state of Vermont. There, Hallsmith and other advocates won a small victory against Wall Street through an effort so relentless and strategic that it would have made any banking lobbyist proud. They combined savvy organizing with data-driven reports and policy briefs to prove the benefits of a public bank-like avoiding fat interest payments to Wall Street banks-for the state’s economy.   A Fight for Public Banks

 Public Banks in Vermon?

Short Deflation Good? Longterm?

Liam Damm comments from New Zealand:  The Swiss currency bombshell – coming out of the blue on Friday morning – rattled currency markets and sent shockwaves through the banking system. The Swiss, stereotypically at least, are renowned for a love of order. Friday’s move was anything but.

We’re still struggling to digest the oil shock. Then there’s the effect of the US recovery, the Chinese slowdown, Russia’s currency crisis, the Greek debt standoff, and Europe’s plans to print money.  As disparate as these issues are, there is a common theme.

At the core is the spectre of deflation – a phenomenon that the Western world has not seen on a grand scale since the Great Depression.  Switzerland, already dealing with its own deflation issues, has been spooked into unpegging its franc from the euro by Europe’s deflation woes.

Maintaining the peg – which was introduced in 2011 as a response to the GFC – required the Swiss central bank to buy foreign currency.

Even Switzerland’s large reserves would have been stretched by further falls in the euro.   The Swiss official cash rate was also slashed – it is now minus 0.75 per cent (yes, you have to pay the bank to take your money). The oil slump which has greatly heightened the world deflation risk also played its part in the Swiss currency move.

The oil-related meltdown of the Russian ruble sent wealth from the region looking for a safe haven – the Swiss franc. That put further pressure on the Swiss central bank, increasing the cost of maintaining the artificial peg.

The Reserve Bank in New Zealand, like all central banks around the world, will add this to models that must remain constantly under review. Our bank is unlikely to move rates – in any direction – for some time.

Inflation is very low and likely to fall outside the Reserve Banks target 1-3 per ce  But New Zealand  has the Christchurch re-build, population growth and a housing boom in Auckland to maintain inflationary pressure.

Our recovery began early and that buys us some time. Continued GDP growth in a low inflation environment is a pretty sweet spot.

New Zealand – as it was in the GFC ultimately – could well be buffered from the worst of this. But we won’t avoid the chill if Europe stagnates, if the US recovery is delayed again and if China keeps slowing.

The pressure on our Reserve Bank to maintain a stimulatory cash rate and ensure the economy doesn’t lose momentum is growing.

One final question lingers in all of this. Why is deflation so bad? As prices fall, consumers have more spending power. What is not to like?

The trouble is that without new wealth creation the upside is unsustainable.

As prices fall margins are squeezed, production falls, businesses contract. Jobs are lost and new jobs not created. Wages fall and a negative spiral takes hold.

It is not a wild freefall like the market meltdown of the GFC. Economies will not collapse overnight.

We can look to Japan for a plausible example of what the world might face – stagnation, low growth and regular dips into recession.

Without growth and momentum, opportunity is removed from the economy. And opportunity is one of capitalism’s most powerful drivers.

New Zealand Housing Boom

 

Russia Cuts Oil Deliveries to the Ukraine

Ken Hanly writes:  Russian president Vladimir Putin has ordered Gazprom to cut supplies to and through the Ukraine by 60 percent. He accuses the Ukraine of siphoning off supplies for Europe and stealing Russian gas.

Russia  claims that due to “transit risks for European consumers in the territory of the Ukraine” the supply cuts had to be made. As a result of the move Gazprom gas supplies to Europe plunged by 60 percent. Ukraine reportedthat Russia had shut off the gas supply. A total of six countries reported a complete shut off of Russian supplied gas.

Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, and Turkey  there had been a stop to gas shipments from Russia coming through the Ukraine. Croatia said that it had to reduce supplies to industrial customers. Bulgaria claimed that it was in a crisis situation and had gas for only a few days. The EUimmediately issued a statement condemning the cut off: ‘Without prior warning and in clear contradiction with the reassurances given by the highest Russian and Ukrainian authorities to the European Union, gas supplies to some EU member states have been substantially cut.’ The statement went on to demand that the gas supplies be restored immediately and that Russia and the Ukraine negotiate an end to their commercial dispute, which is the root cause of the situation.

The head of Gazprom  said that Russia plans to shift all natural gas flows now crossing the Ukraine to an alternative route through Turkey. About 40 percent of present Russian gas shipments to Europe pass through the Soviet area link via the Ukraine. Originally Russia planned a link through Bulgaria but dropped the plan after EU opposition. Bulgaria is now being made to suffer as no supplies at all from Russia enter the country. Russia supplies about 30 percent of EU natural gas.

Gazprom’s viewpoint appears to be that the EU will be the one to deal with that problem as it will simply deliver gas to the border of Greece and it will be up to the EU how gas is delivered from that point.
Russia may be using its plans as a bargaining chip but the EU is itself planning an energy union to reduce dependence on Russian gas and hence it may make sense for Russia to itself reduce reliance on the Ukrainian transit system, especially given the political conflict with the Ukraine.
Turn off the Spigot?

Draghi Next President of Italy

Andrea Markuzzo writes: As the 89 year old President of Italy resigns,  the party leaders are all likely to find it difficult to impose their preference on the parliamentary groups.

Giorgio Napolitano, Italy’s 89-year-old president, has resigned from the office he has held for nearly a decade. His departure will prompt a secret ballot among parliamentarians to replace him. But this is not likely to be an easy job, since the Italian parliament is currently rife with disagreement and dissatisfaction.

Originally elected in 2006, Napolitano reluctantly accepted re-election in 2013 because a highly polarised parliament could not guarantee the required absolute majority to any successor.

Some believe the Italian presidency is little more than a ceremonial role, but the chief of state is actually assigned substantial powers in the Italian Constitution.

What’s more, Italian governments are traditionally unstable and the political scene notoriously fragmented. There have been 63 governments since 1946, and since the political crisis of the early 1990s, majorities have been more and more fragile, composed of up to 20 different parliamentary groups. Against this backdrop, the president represents a rare centre of institutional continuity.

Napolitano, in particular, has pushed the limits of his authority. He used the highest degree of power on offer to him when trying to bring in effective governance before the debt crisis of 2011-12 and during the hung parliament deadlock that emerged after the 2013 elections.

The prestige of the presidential office naturally attracts some top names to the job and several potentials have been identified in the run up to Napolitano’s departure.

Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, is thought to be a strong candidate,

Romano Prodi, Italy’s prime minister between 1996-1998 and 2006-2008, as well as president of the European Commission from 1999 to 2004  could find support. It will be difficult to find a president with support from a broad range of sources. In fact, the major leaders won’t even been voting in this election. Both Renzi and Beppe Grillo, founder of the radically populist Movimento 5 Stelle, have decided not to run for a parliamentary seat in 2013 general elections, so won’t be eligible to vote. Berlusconi, for his part, lost his seat after being onvicted of tax fraud.

President Renzi has been widely criticised by the traditional left for his attempts to give the Democratic Party a business-friendly image, and Grillo is facing growing criticism for the lack of internal democracy in the Movimento 5 Stelle. In Forza Italia, some accuse Berlusconi of taking care of his own interests above those of the party he founded.

The eventual winner will work with Renzi and his ministers on the final parliamentary passage of two crucial political reforms. A new electoral law should introduce a second round between the two largest parties to make sure one has a super-majority of 55% of the seats.

 

Plunging Oil Prices Long Term?

Andy Rowell writes:  How low can the price of oil go? What was unthinkable even a few months ago is now becoming distinctly probable, even likely.

As analysts dissect the ramifications for the oil industry of $40 a barrel, oil traders are now thinking that the price of crude will halve that to a staggering $20 a barrel. Prices have not been that low for 20 years.

Just a few weeks ago, traders believed that the oil price would bottom out at around $40 a barrel, but two weeks into January and we have reached that level already.

If the price of oil drops to $20 per barrel there will be carnage in the upstream unconventional oil industry in North America.

As Australian Business Review reports this morning “the number of contracts or options to sell U.S. crude at $US20 in June has jumped from close to zero at the beginning of the year to 13 million barrels of oil.”

The next few months could be some of the most defining ones in the whole of the hydrocarbon era. If that sounds like hyperbole, think again. The Telegraph reports that the Arab states of OPEC are preparing to “crush U.S. shale,” in their strategy to counter the shale gas revolution headon.

“The strategy will not change,” the Energy Minister of the United Arab Emirates said this week “We are telling the market and other producers that they need to be rational.” He predicted that it could be years before prices stablise, adding: “We are passing through very interesting times.” He finished by saying that he felt it was unlikley that will see a sudden rise in oil prices.”

The price drop threatens to re-write the energy landscape in the U.S. The oil price plunge is already hurting, with 35 horizontal fracking rigs idle last week in North Dakota and Texas fracking hotspots, the biggest single-week drop since the drilling boom started six years ago.

And now the business community are warning of the dangers of this new reality. The basic economics of fracking—that it now costs much more to drill than what oil is selling for. Cnventional drilling can withstand the oil price dip, the short-life span of fracking wells—where there is a breakeven price of $65—will not be able to.

It could be that  the Bakken region straddling Montana and North Dakota, a well that starts out pumping 1,000 barrels a day will decline to just 280 barrels by the start of year two, a shrinkage of 72%. By the beginning of year three, more than half the reserves of that well will be depleted and annual production will fall to a trickle.

 Oil Prices

Solar Power

Kirsten Korosec writes:  SolarCity, the largest installer of residential solar systems in the U.S., nearly doubled its workforce last year, hiring 4,000 people to do everything from system design and site surveys to installation and engineering.

The hiring spree at SolarCity isn’t slowing; it’s picking up speed as the company attempts to install twice as many rooftop solar systems than last year and readies its 1.2 million-square foot factory in New York, which is scheduled to reach full production in 2017.

Installers, panel makers, and even traditional fossil fuel energy companies helped U.S. solar employment grow nearly 22 percent in 2014.

The company’s expansion is indicative of what’s happening within the broader solar industry. More than 31,000 new solar jobs were created in the U.S. in 2014 bringing the total to 173,807—a 21.8 percent increase in employment since November 2013, according to a report released Thursday by The Solar Foundation. This is the second consecutive year that solar jobs have increased by at least 20 percent.

The solar industry is still dwarfed by the 9.8 million workers that the American Petroleum Industry says are employed the oil and gas industry.

Solar already employs more people than coal mining, which has 93,185 workers, and has added 50 percent more jobs in 2014 than the oil and gas pipeline construction industry (10,529) and the crude petroleum and natural gas extraction industry (8,688) did combined, according to the Solar Foundation.

One out of every 78 new jobs created in the U.S. over the past 12 months were created by the solar industry, representing nearly 1.3 percent of all jobs created in the country. Solar companies surveyed for the fifth annual census plan to add another 36,000 employees this year.

Third-party financing that allows homeowners to lease solar systems, a stabilizing manufacturing sector and utility-scale solar developers scrambling to finish projects before the federal investment tax credit drops from 30 percent to 10 percent on Jan. 1, 2017 has helped drive growth, says Andrea Luecke, president and executive director of The Solar Foundation.

The solar job-growth trend has spilled beyond the confines of companies solely dedicated to the renewable energy source.

NRG Energy, one of the largest U.S. independent power producers and owner of 88 fossil fuel and nuclear plants, is expanding its solar business rapidly. NRG’s Home Solar group, the residential solar division of NRG Home, hired 500 people in the past 12 months and now has 1,200 workers.

“We’re growing explosively in several markets,” NRG Home Solar president Kelcy Pegler Jr. said in an interview with Fortune on Thursday following the company’s investor day presentation.

As a result, Pegler’s residential home solar group plans to add “hundreds of jobs” this quarter and will double its current headcount in the next two years.

NRG Energy, which employs 10,000 people, reorganized last year into three business lines: NRG Business, NRG Home and NRG Renew. The company NRG -1.02% has a number of other solar-related jobs within NRG Renew and NRG Home, including its power on the go division which was expanded after the 2014 acquisition of portable solar power company Goal Zero.

These aren’t just part-time jobs either, these are careers.

Solar Power

Work Politics

KShutterstock_136706186Kathleen Kelley Reardon asks:  Can you manage at work without politics?  The answer to that question is, probably not.  Wherever people come together seeking goals – whether the same or different ones – and especially where there is competition for scarce resources, politics is there.  Political arenas run along a continuum from minimally to highly and even pathologically political.  The character of the arena in which you work dictates the extent to which political acumen becomes a necessity.The political landscape where most of us work shifts over time.  While it may be possible to remain a political purist (at least for a while) in some jobs in certain organizations, it is risky to wait around until politics reaches a point beyond your expertise.The more effective route is to prepare for politics. Keep in mind that not all forms of politics are devious or underhanded.  Some political skills are actually no more than good people skills, like interpersonal sensitivity: knowing when to bring up which topics, when to push for something you believe is important, managing conflict to avoid unnecessary flare-ups, and causing others to feel good about working with you.Additional, relatively basic and constructive forms of political know-how include:

–       Creating a positive impression – assuring that key people find you and your ideas interesting.

–       Positioning – being in the right place at the right time.

–       Cultivating mentors – locating experienced advisors.

–       Lining up your ducks – making sure any idea you advance has support from the right people.

–       Developing a favor bank – doing for others, not only because you want to, but so that someday when you need to call in a chit, you will have the “currency” to do so.

Why, you might ask yourself, should I spend my valuable time managing politics instead of doing my job?  The truth is that understanding politics is required to do your job in most of today’s organizations.

Why not start by assessing how things get done — by whom and in what ways — where you work?  Seek guidance if it’s available from people who are adept at managing politics.  Become a student of politics.  Learn, for example, to detect disconnects between what is said and what is done, between what is requested and what is rewarded.  In most organizations, there’s a lot more going on than meets the eye.  It never pays to be the last one to know.

 

Prey to Gambler’s Fallacy?

Stephen Maxie writes:  Last August, my wife and I welcomed our third daughter into the world. It’s wonderful to be the parent of three girls. There is one significant drawback, however: having to field the question, over and over again, from (mostly) well-meaning people: “So are you going to try for a boy now?” There are several solid reasons we are calling it a day in the reproduction department. But if we were interested in having a fourth child, “trying for a boy” would not be the motivation. The idea is preposterous. Having a string of children of one sex does not presage the arrival of a baby of the opposite sex. Each pregnancy brings the same odds of having a boy or a girl, regardless of how previous pregnancies turned out: about 1 in 2.

The inkling that eventually odds come to favor having a baby of the other sex is an application of the “gambler’s fallacy.” This mistake is often explained with the example of coin tosses. Let’s say you flip a fair coin 5 times and it ends up “heads” each time. Many people watching this unbroken string of unlikely flips would bet good money that the sixth flip will bring “tails.” Heads can’t go on forever! What are the chances that there would be six heads in a row? Answer: on the sixth flip, there are even odds of getting heads or tails, just as there were for the first five flips. You’d be a fool to place a big bet on tails—or on heads, for that matter—for any individual coin toss.

In the long run, with millions or billions of flips, a fair coin will produce increasingly even numbers of heads and tails. The numbers will show something very close to a 50/50 split.  But when you’re dealing with only a few handfuls of flips, the law of small numbers applies: seemingly unlikely strings of coin flips are not that improbable after all. In our example, there is a probability of 1/64 that six flips of a fair coin will result in heads each time (that’s 1 over 2 to the sixth power). Those odds aren’t great; they come out to about a 1.6% chance. The gambler’s fallacy is to look at those meager odds and conclude there is a 98.4% chance the sixth flip will be tails. But here’s the fundamental problem: the probability of the first five flips coming up heads is now 100 percent. They have already happened! The only question is what will happen with the next flip, and those odds are, again, 50/50. Here is another way to look at it: any permutation of six coin flips—all heads or all tails or three heads and three tails or one tails and five heads, e.g.—has a probability of 1/64. So it’s just as likely—and just as unlikely—that six flips of a coin will produce six heads, or three tails and three heads—or any of the other 62 possible permutations.

When we zoom in on a string of one or two dozen flips, then, we are likely to find some series of flips that don’t look so random. Such non-random-seeming strings are to be expected from time to time. And this principle holds outside the realm of coin flips; it applies to purportedly amazing coincidences you might experience in your life.

It’s clear how a gambler can suffer from this fallacy: he can lose big money. If you throw all your chips on black in a game of Roulette after the ball has landed on red 10 times in a row because it couldn’t possibly wind up there an eleventh time—well, you have a good chance of walking home empty-pocketed. On August 18, 1913, scores of French gamblers left the Monte Carlo casino bereft after falling victim to this mistake: the Roulette ball landed on black 26 times in a row that day; during the run, everybody was betting that the wheel would even itself out and turn to red. But of course the wheel had no memory of its previous spins. Only the irrational bettors thought that previous spins had anything to do with how the next spin would turn out.

A new piece of research shows there are weighty implications of this cognitive bias well beyond the casino floor. In next Friday’s Praxis, I will discuss evidence that judges, loan officers and baseball umpires tend to succumb to the gambler’s fallacy in their decision making—dramatically expanding the damage the fallacy can cause to innocent bystanders.

Gambler's Fallacy

Women and Leadership

A new Pew Study reports: According to the majority of Americans, women are every bit as capable of being good political leaders as men. The same can be said of their ability to dominate the corporate boardroom. And according to a new Pew Research Center survey on women and leadership, most Americans find women indistinguishable from men on key leadership traits such as intelligence and capacity for innovation, with many saying they’re stronger than men in terms of being compassionate and organized leaders.

So why, then, are women in short supply at the top of government and business in the United States? According to the public, at least, it’s not that they lack toughness, management chops or proper skill sets.

It’s also not all about work-life balance. While economic research and previous survey findings have shown that career interruptions related to motherhood may make it harder for women to advance in their careers and compete for top executive jobs, relatively few adults in the new Pew Research survey point to this as a key barrier for women seeking leadership roles.1 Only about one-in-five say women’s family responsibilities are a major reason there aren’t more females in top leadership positions in business and politics.

Americans Have Doubts About Women  Achieving Equality in Corporate LeadershipInstead, topping the list of reasons, about four and ten Americans point to a double standards for women seeking the highest levels of either politics or business. Similar shares say the electorate and corporate America are just not ready to put more women in top leadership positions.

A Woman Who Wants to Reach a Top Position in Business Is Better Off …As a result, the public is divided about whether, even in the face of the major advances women have made in the workplace, the imbalance in corporate America will change in the foreseeable future. About half (53%) believe men will continue to hold more top executive positions in business in the future; 44% say it is only a matter of time before as many women are in top executive positions as men. Americans are less doubtful when it comes to politics: 73% expect to see a female president in their lifetime.

These findings are based on a new Pew Research Center survey of 1,835 randomly selected adults conducted online Nov. 12-21, 2014. The survey also finds that the public is divided over whether a woman with leadership aspirations is better off having children early on in her career (36%) or waiting until she is well established (40%). About one-in-five (22%) say the best option would be to not have children at all.  Women-and Leadership