America Back in the Swing of Oil Production?

Daniel Yergin writes:  American shale oil has become the decisive new factor in the world oil market in a way that could not have been imagined five years ago. It has proved to be a truly disruptive technology. But will that impact continue in a world of low prices?

Oil is now below $50 a barrel, a price too low for a good deal of the new shale oil development to make economic sense. Yet output is likely to continue to rise by another 500,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2015 because of sheer momentum and commitments already made.

Come the middle of the year, however, growth will flatten out. Producers will work hard to improve efficiency and lower costs, but in 2016, at these prices, American output could decline. Production elsewhere in the world will also be flattening.

But by then, the world economy might be doing better, stimulating oil demand. Prices could start rising again. If the gulf producers have their way, prices will not go back to $100 a barrel. Even at prices well below $100, American shale oil producers will find ways to drive down costs and output will start rising again. And the world’s new swing producer will find itself back in the swing of things.

Oil production

Can We Get from QE to QED?

Dick Ehnts writes:  With quantitative easing, a central bank creates additional deposits for banks as it buys some of their assets, like bonds. What can banks do with these reserves? They can lend them out to other banks, but that is not very likely since all banks will receive additional reserves and none will lose some.

Banks can use reserves to buy financial assets, but this would increase their exposure to risk since they would have to take any losses resulting from this business. Plus the reserves are moved to the balance sheets of another bank, so we’re still unsure of where they go. In the end, the banks will move the reserves into the deposit facility at the European Central Bank, forinstanace, which offers a fantastic interest rate of -0.2%. And this creates inflation how?

Bank loans are created by banks when they mark up the deposits of their client and simultaneously create an item called loan on the asset side of their balance sheet. Banks do not need reserves to make loans, which should by now by common knowledge among macroeconomists.

The monetary circuit in the euro zone is damaged, because the private sector repays net debt. This destroys deposits, which are not available for spending. We need additional deposits to grow faster. Some confuses deposits in the central bank (reserves) with deposits in banks. Only the latter can lead to more spending and hence more inflation. Banks owning more central bank deposits will not be able to spend them on goods and services produced. QE was a failure in Japan, in the US, and the UK. It will be a failure in the euro zone as well. The only thing it does is to lower the long-term yields, but given that firms have problems with demand this will not be the cure of the aggregate demand weakness that is hurting the euro zone so much.

Creating Inflation

Italians Now Credible?

Rob Cox writes:  The Italian presence was hard to miss at Davos, and not just on the official program, where the 40-year-old Renzi was the subject of a special session entitled “Transformational Leadership.”

Chiefs of the country’s top banks, state-oil giant Eni, insurer Generali – even the head of the once-secretive Mediobanca – and their entourages jostled through security lines. Opera tenor Andrea Bocelli kicked off the proceedings. Global brewer SABMiller hosted a “Taste of Italy” reception.

The country’s corporate and political leaders have had good reason to avoid Davos. Italy’s output has shrunk by about a tenth over the last decade. The unemployment rate, especially among young people, exceeds 13 percent. GDP growth is forecast by the International Monetary Fund at a recently slashed 0.4 percent.

Renzi nevertheless took the stage in Davos with some significant reform victories, which Italian executives say could help the economy expand beyond those expectations.

1. Renzi has pushed through labor rules that will allow companies to hire and fire more easily.

2.  Italy’s Senate this week approved an amendment to a new electoral law designed to foster more stability and efficiency in long-dysfunctional Italian politics.

3.  Renzi approved a plan to effectively force the country’s mutually-owned banks, which account for about a fifth of the industry, to privatize. By abolishing a structure that gave every stockholder the same vote notwithstanding the number of shares held,  much-needed consolidation will take shape.

The risk for Renzi is that he is moving so quickly that he splinters the party. To get reforms approved, for instance, the coalition has had to rely on the opposition led by Silvio Berlusconi, whose control of his party, Forza Italia, is also tenuous. With presidential elections on the horizon, the possibility of an all-too-familiar political setback is possible.

“The most important structural reform for Italy is credibility,” he told the WEF delegates. The question is whether they take that message home with them from Davos.

Renzi

Ralph Nader Exposes Credit Suisse

Nader writes:  In May of 2014, financial firm Credit Suisse AG pled guilty to serious criminal charges. The giant bank aided and assisted approximately 22,000 wealthy U.S. taxpayers (whose names Credit Suisse AG escaped having to send to the Justice Department for law enforcement) for over a decade in filing false income tax returns and other documents with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

The full extent of these crimes, according to a Department of Justice news release, are as follows: “assisting clients in using sham entities to hide undeclared accounts;” “soliciting IRS forms that falsely stated, under penalties of perjury, that the sham entities were the beneficial owners of the assets in the accounts;” “failing to maintain in the United States records related to the accounts;” “destroying account records sent to the United States for client review;” “using Credit Suisse managers and employees as unregistered investment advisors on undeclared accounts;” “facilitating withdrawals of funds from the undeclared accounts by either providing hand-delivered cash in the United States or using Credit Suisse’s correspondent bank accounts in the United States;” “structuring transfers of funds to evade currency transaction reporting requirements;” and “providing offshore credit and debit cards to repatriate funds in the undeclared accounts.”

These elaborate illegal acts over many years are quite revealing. They show a deliberate willingness by Credit Suisse AG officials to knowingly engage in profitable activities that defrauded the United States Treasury and burdened honest taxpayers.

The Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, or ERISA, was enacted to protect the retirement savings of retirement plan participants. The law, in theory, automatically disqualifies institutions like Credit Suisse AG who have committed serious crimes or pled guilty to serious crimes from serving as a “qualified professional asset manager” (QPAM) of ERISA assets or pension plans.

Unfortunately, the Department of Labor has not adequately enforced this law or its regulations in this area.

The Department of Labor (DOL) already has granted Credit Suisse a temporary waiver to continue conducting their pension management business. On January 15th, the DOL held a public hearing—where I testified— to discuss whether Credit Suisse and its affiliates can continue this troubling trend of avoiding the consequences of their actions indefinitely. Credit Suisse AG is hoping to completely sidestep the mechanisms of justice for their admittedly serious crimes and carry on business as usual—a result that in itself is, unfortunately, business as usual.

This routine ability to evade proper punishment is the root of the issue of so much corporate and Wall Street crime—a slap on the wrist leads to a perpetual cycle of wrongdoing with no end in sight. Their corporate lawyers turn laws into “no-law” laws. Corporate crime pays.

The Department of Labor, which exists to defend workers, now has a unique opportunity to stand proudly at its post and to send a clear message—a firm signal—to other Qualified Professional Asset Managers that if they commit unthinkable criminal violations, they lose the ability to handle pension funds. On the other hand, allowing these institutions to continue to receive permanent waivers would be a clear signal that the DOL will tolerate cutting corners and criminal wrongdoing by powerful financial institutions at the expense of workers, complying taxpayers, democracy, and the rule of law.

Credit Suisse

What Obama Wants from India

This is the first time a US president will be visiting India twice. Why is Obama placing such importance on India, and what does he expect from a country that was formerly in the Soviet camp and has disappointed so many, despite decades of “liberalization”?

Major bilateral issues are part of the trip’s agenda. Defense, energy and counterterrorism are the main course for the talks, but President Obama’s top concern is deepening economic ties with India. The visit comes at a particularly fortuitous time. Both the US and India are on promising growth curves. It is entirely possible that Obama’s visit could mark the beginning of the most vigorous US-India economic cooperation since the beginning of the liberalization process nearly a quarter century ago.

Obama’s visit can potentially help right US-India economic relations and send a clear signal to American businesses that India can be a serious, stable place to grow.

1) Tax

There is wide agreement that the Indian government’s decision to contemptuously disregard a Supreme Court decision and overturn 50 years of settled Indian law to implement retrospective taxation on certain types of major business transactions has derailed Indian economic growth and given the country a notorious reputation in investment circles. Although it was the Congress-led government that decided to overturn a court’s decision and tax past offshore M&A (mergers and acquisitions) transactions, the Modi government has done little substantively to reverse that decision, despite carefully worded promises that it would not undertake any new cases based on retroactive tax laws.

While there are signs that India and the United States will sign a significant agreement to resolve certain other types of tax cases, the Indians must understand there are no half measures for repealing a tax that marked the Indian tax regime as untrustworthy and out-of-step with modern practice.

Obama’s second priority will be to persuade India to change its inflexible and archaic labor laws.

Obama’s third priority will be to seek a reduction to India’s infamous red tape. While some “single-window” clearance systems have been implemented with fanfare, anyone who has to deal with Indian bureaucracy still has to run from pillar to post. Many promising areas of growth have ground to a halt on mistaken bureaucratic action or complete inaction.

More importantly, even a “yes” in India infamously means “maybe” rather than an unequivocal “yes,” and this ruffles American feathers.

Modi has made very public efforts to make the bureaucracy work better or, simply, to show up for work.

One testy issue that doesn’t matter a whole lot is intellectual property (IP). This is a hot-button issue in both countries, but it is almost exclusively focused on pharmaceutical patents.

India has valid concerns about providing up-to-date medicines to its impoverished population at affordable prices, but it also needs to encourage domestic innovators who are being lured abroad by countries such as Singapore. The United States has valid concerns about enforcement of IP rights, but its bargaining position must not be held hostage by the large pharmaceutical companies. The US must recognize that compared to China, India is a virgin when it comes to IP violations. The courts will enforce foreign IP holders’ rights on a timely basis, and there is little “home cooking” when it comes to such decisions. IP holders in China would love to face the comparably minor challenges one meets in India.

There is a rational way forward here, one that allows India to impose rational and just price controls on drugs while allowing a vigorous IP regime that encourages innovation in the country. India requires fresh ideas and economic thinking on this issue rather than framing this as either a leftist defense of the poor or a craven collapse to outside business interests. For its part, the United States should help India find a balance and not let the pharmaceutical lobby dominate the discussion. The best selling point for “Make in India” is that the country will not rip off American intellectual property in the manner of China.

Prime Minister Modi deserves great credit for looking at India’s greater interests and reaching out to a country that only recently had him on a blacklist and barred from entry. President Obama has a great chance to reciprocate the gesture. Both leaders have a rare opportunity to help each other unlock India’s economic potential.

Obama and Modi Meet

Ukraine Stiffing China?

Eric Zuesse writes:  China is demanding refund of $1.5 billion in cash and of an additional $1.5 billion in Chinese goods that were paid in advance by China (in 2013), for a 2012 Chinese order of grain from Ukraine, which goods still have not been supplied to China.

Alex Luponosov, a Ukrainian authority on Ukraine’s banking system, says, “Ukraine won’t be able to supply the grain to China, because we don’t have it.” The reason he gives is that “there is a big shortage of technicians: combiners, adjusters, mechanics, farm-machinery operators — all of them were taken by the army.” Those men are being required to fight in Ukraine’s ‘ATO’ or ‘Anti Terrorist Operation,’ that’s occurring in Ukraine’s former Donbass region (the far-eastern tip of Ukraine), the place where the residents don’t accept the new Ukrainian Government’s legitimacy.

The RIAN report says that, “China is angry,” and it closes: “By the way, in addition to China’s $3B loan that’s to be repaid with grain [which cannot be supplied], Ukraine also received from China a $3.6 billion loan to pay for the gasification of coal, by Ukraine’s gas company, Naftogaz, which the Ukrainian Government has guaranteed up to 2.3 billion dollars. Information on the implementation of the coal-gasification project has not been made available, but there seems to be a high probability that this matter too will be decided in a court. If China decides to call in that loan, then the result will be the bankruptcy of either Naftogaz, or the Ukrainian Government.

The IMF, and other lenders, require Ukraine to win this war, because, if the Ukrainian Government doesn’t win, the natural gas and other assets that are in the ground in that region will not become available to be sold off by the Ukrainian Government in order to pay-off those investors; instead, the residents there (the people whom the Ukrainian Government is now trying to eliminate will control those assets, as being assets of a separate state — one which has not borrowed from these investors. The IMF wants the assets that are in the ground.

Ukraine's Financial Problems

The Greek Leader Tsipras Is?

Sunday’s elections in Greece have brought Tsipras and his Syriza party closerto power.  In 2012, when Alexis Tsipras last ran to be prime minister of Greece, his compatriots were quite literally killing themselves in public squares because of the tough austerity measures that had strangled the country’s economy.

His alternative-left Syriza party, he said, may be the ticket out of the hell that Greece has become.  Tsipras did well on the reent ballot, perhaps because Greece has gotten worse. More than 200,000 Greeks have left the country in the last five years, and austerity has forced many businesses to shutter up or go off the radar. Greece’s black market economy is now estimated to account for nearly half of the country’s GDP.

There are also signs that Europeans in other countries who once fought to keep the eurozone intact at any cost now feel they could get along pretty well without Greece. After all, it has a population of only 11 million in a European Union of 500 million and it represents only about 1.4 percent of the union’s GDP.

Tsipras has promised the Greeks that Europe needs them and has no choice but to renegotiate Greece’s bailout debt conditions. And Greeks like what they hear.

Tsipras argues that in order to stay in the eurozone, Greece’s ruling party has negotiated a foolhardy payment schedule for its $378 million bailout debt that makes it impossible for the country to grow. The current repayment plan is 175 percent of the gross domestic product, and Tsipras wants a better deal, starting with his demand that Europe should simply erase most of the Greek debt.

The lessons the young leader has learned since the last elections are apparent. He has traded what amounted to fear-mongering in his last electoral campaign for consensus building, starting with a promise to some of his former naysayer European leaders. Many of Europe’s struggling countries have launched their own versions of alternative leftist Syriza parties and Tsipras had made the rounds to Italy, Spain and Portugal in recent months.

In 2012, Tsipras gave wide ranging interviews to most people who cared enough to ask. This time around, he is writing op-eds in Europe’s largest newspapers to garner support not only for voting Greeks who have moved abroad, but to get Europe’s other austerity-suffering countries to back the debt reshuffling proposal with the idea that such a precedent could help them, too.

Tsipras has come a long way in just a few years, but not all of Europe is optimistic about a Tsipras-led Greece. In an interview ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, which owns a lot of the Greek debt, quashed Tsipras’s debt renegotiation promise and said there is very little wiggle room when it comes to renegotiating debt.

Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who heads the influential Eurogroup of European ministers agreed. “There’s no political support to write off Greek debt,” he said.

And in Germany, there was that Der Spiegel report that the German government would rather have a Greek-free euro than open the way for a trend that would be costly to the richer nations.

A Greek Leader

Is Greece on the Way Out of the EU?

Greece rejected the punishing economics of austerity on Sunday and sent a warning signal to the rest of Europe as the left-wing Syriza party won a decisive victory in national elections, positioning its tough-talking leader, Alexis Tsipras, to become the next prime minister.

With 60 percent of the vote counted, Syriza had 36 percent, almost eight points ahead of the governing center-right New Democracy Party of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, who had conceded defeat. The only uncertainty was whether Syriza would muster an outright parliamentary majority or if it would have to form a coalition.

Appearing before a throng of supporters outside Athens University late Sunday night, Mr. Tsipras, 40, declared that the era of austerity was over and promised to revive the Greek economy. He also said his government would not allow Greece’s creditors to strangle the country.

“Greece will now move ahead with hope, and reach out to Europe, and Europe is going to change,” he said. “The verdict is clear: We will bring an end to the vicious circle of austerity.”

Anti Austerity WIns in Greece

Same Old King in Saudi Arabia

ing Salman, Saudi Arabia’s new ruler, will continue the policy of maintaining crude output to preserve market share even as prices have plunged.

Salman, 79, issued a royal decree to retain current ministers, according to the official Saudi Press Agency. Al-Naimi led OPEC’s Nov. 27 decision to maintain its crude production even as shale supplies spurred U.S. output to the highest in three decades. Salman said on Saudi national television that he will maintain the policies of his predecessor.

With production of 9.5 million barrels a day and exports of 7 million, Saudi Arabia accounts for more than a 10th of global supply and a fifth of crude sold internationally. The country’s refusal to surrender market share to rising U.S. output has contributed to the worst slump in prices since the global credit crisis of 2008.

Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, rose as much as 2.6 percent to $49.80 a barrel in London on Friday, before paring gains to $49.38 at 10:37 a.m. local time. West Texas Intermediate rallied as much as 3.1 percent.

The price increase following the death of King Abdullah will be temporary because it won’t alter the nation’s policies and U.S. oil output will continue rising.

In signs of a smooth succession, Salman was named king and Prince Muqrin, 69, another half-brother, has been chosen as Crown Prince. Salman appointed Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the country’s Interior Minister, as deputy crown prince and his son Mohammed bin Salman as defense minister, Saudi State Television reported today.

saudi oil production

Perjury by US Fed in AIG Case?

An  exchange, this one from Day 1 of the trial, with Q. as David Boies (representing Hank Greenberg of AIG) and A. as Alvarez. Bear in mind that after this testimony was entered into the record, Boies introduced into the record an e-mail dated Saturday September 20 that Morgan Stanley had informed Tim Geithner on September 19, a Friday, that Morgan Stanley would be unable to open the following Monday.

  1. Do you think that Morgan Stanley, on September 14th, 2008, could have continued to operate if you had taken away the primary dealer credit facility and not substituted something equal in its place?… THE WITNESS: – and I don’t know if Morgan Stanley was even borrowing on that day…. Q. Mr. Alvarez, did I hear you say that you didn’t know whether Morgan Stanley was borrowing from the primary dealer credit facility? A. On September 14th I think was your question. Q. Was it borrowing from the primary dealer credit facility at any time in September 2008? A. I don’t know the answer to that… Q. Would it surprise you that that number was as high as $100 billion? A. I just don’t know. Q. While we’re on the subject of Morgan Stanley, there came a time when the Federal Reserve System was apprised that unless Morgan Stanley got federal assistance or additional federal assistance to what they were already getting over a weekend, that Morgan Stanley would not be able to open the following Monday, correct? A. No, I’m not aware of that ever happening…I’m not aware that Morgan Stanley – I’m not aware of that. I don’t know what you’re referring to. Could you be more specific?.. Q. You were the general counsel of the Federal Reserve Board at that time? A. Yes, I was.

Boies later entered into evidence shows that the New York Fed immediately cranked up a team to analyze what to do about Morgan Stanley saying it was toast unless it got a rescue.  Federal Reserve and AIG

AIG Trial