Can Ukraine Change on $40 billion?

Leonid Bershidsky writes: Ukraine now has a four-year bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund. It’s still too early to celebrate. Like the cease-fire, the aid package isn’t very generous to Ukraine. But if it helps convince Kiev it needs economic reforms, that won’t be a bad thing.

In January, financier and philanthropist George Soros suggested putting together a $50 billion rescue deal for Kiev. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde talks about  $40 billion, but that’s pretty meaningless.

About $17.5 billion of that is supposed to come from the IMF. But even if all that money were disbursed immediately, it would only just bring Ukraine’s $6/4 billion foreign reserves to the levels they had in January 2013. That month, the reserves amounted to $24.5 billion.. The package’s small size could spur the country to more efficiency.

Lagarde said Ukraine had shown commitment to reform, but the proof she cited was meager.

The program will require the authorities’ steadfast determination to reform the economy,” If the cease-fire holds, however, the government will no longer be able to use the war in the east as an excuse.

Yatsenyuk says his government isn’t looking for excuses.  So far, Ukrainian government bonds — the three-year one trades at a 37.89 percent yield — and the hryvnia’s exchange rate have shown no positive reaction to the deal, however. The markets don’t trust the current Ukrainian government to do a better job than its predecessors.

Ukraine’s best hope is that civil society, empowered by last year’s anti-corruption revolution again former president Viktor Yanukovych, will push the political leadership and bureaucracy toward positive change.  As Valeri Pekar, head of Ukraine’s main business lobby, the Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, writes: “The political system is too slow in catching up to the growing demands of society. Our job is to help align it with the forces of reform.”

Experience tells me the fresh start, offered by the cease-fire and the IMF deal, will be one more in a long series of Ukraine’s missed opportunities. Yet I want to believe the country will finally seize this chance. If Ukraine shows that a large post-Soviet country can turn itself into an economically viable democracy, it will be a positive example for its neighbors, rather than a laughingstock or easy prey. That’s the only way for it to win a lasting victory over President Vladmir Putin’s Russia.

Ukraine Ceasefire?

Women Create A Force

Marvel Comics has a new group of Earth’s Mightiest Heroes taking over an all-new era with Marvel Comics’ A-FORCE co-written by G. Willow Wilson and Marguerite K. Bennett with artwork by Jorge Molina .

In hte Warzones of Secret Wars, a brand new team will lead the way. A-Force Assemble! Marvel Comics reimagines the Marvel Universe in one of the largest shake-ups to the Avengers mythos.

So who are the Marvel powerhouses taking center stage?

“She-Hulk, Dazzler, Medusa, Nico Minoru and other fan favorites, will take charge,” says series co-writer G. Willow Wilson. “We’ve purposefully assembled a team composed of different characters from disparate parts of the Marvel U, with very different power sets, identities and ideologies.”

And there came a day, a day unlike any other, when Earth’s mightiest heroines found themselves united against a common threat. On that day, A-Force was born—to fight the foes no single Super Hero could withstand!/  Their glory will never been denied!.  Heed the call, A-Force Assemble!.

 A Force

Indian Anti-Corruption Candidate Wins

Syed Nazakat writes: He’s known as India’s corruption buster. And now Arvind Kejriwal, a youthful-looking former tax inspector and winner pf Asia’s equivalent of the Nobel Prize, has pulled off a stunning near-sweep In New Delihi’s local elections.

The Aam Aadmi, or “Common Man,” party won 67 of 70 seats in New Delhi, the largest single victory ever in India’s capital. The party’s victory also marks the first major loss for the Hindu nationalist BJP party since its own sweep of India last spring, which brought Prime Minister Narendra Modi to power.

The scale of victory for the young, idealistic party that champions local needs – including clean water, electricity, and security for women, as well as a “clean hands” anti-graft agenda – suggests the lure of Mr. Modi’s BJP is not necessarily a deep one. The loss is being called the end of Modi’s honeymoon less than two weeks after he hosted US President Obama.

The Common Man party’s popular majority of 54 percent shows that Kejriwal’s support appears to transcend class and religious categories, though whether he can transcend Delhi politics and exercise power outside the capital remains unclear.

This is the first time Congress, the venerable party associated with the liberation movement of Mohandas Gandhi, failed to win a single seat in Delhi.  AAP stunned India in 2013 by winning 28 seats in Delhi and defeating the ruling Congress party. Kejriwal then clashed with the federal government over an anti-corruption bill and walked out of office less than two months later. He has since apologized and vows not to leave again.

The success of the Common Man party stems from its sustained campaign against corruption combined with a dedicated army of volunteers.

Kejriwal existed for years under the political radar in India, surfacing from time to time to take up “transparency” issues like clarifying the Right to Information Act.

Kejriwal entered politics in 2012 and championed transparency and anti-corruption. He launched a party that brought together activists, youth, and poor people, and his anti-graft ideas caused a stir nationwide.

Those close to Kejriwal say the tipping point in his career came when he joined forces with Anna Hazare, an anti-corruption crusader. While Ms. Hazare did not join politics, Kejriwal launched the AAP as an alternative to mainstream national political parties.

 Common Man

Warren and Cummings Request Update on Investigation of Federal Reserve Leaks

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, and Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Maryland have asked the Federal Reserve Board for a briefing about its investigation into a leak of confidential Fed policy deliberations two years ago.
They sent their request to Scott G. Alvarez, the board’s general counsel, saying that neither Alvarez
“Nor any other Federal Reserve official has made public any information about the conduct of the investigation or its outcome.”

The two wrote:
“We are disturbed by this lack of transparency regarding such an important topic. This leak contained key market-moving information, violated Federal Reserve policy on disclosure, and may have represented a violation of federal law.”
Details from discussions of the Federal Open Market Committee found their way into a financial analyst’s private newsletter. The leak occurred in October 2012, the day before the scheduled public release of committee meeting minutes that promised to shed new light on a third round of bond buying to boost the economy.

The newsletter revealed what the minutes would say as well as fresh details about the Fed’s internal plans and deliberations – information that could have provided traders with an edge. Then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke asked Alvarez and the board’s secretary to look into the matter. The Fed never revealed the investigation and only publicly acknowledged the leak in a response to a freedom of information request by ProPublica.

The Fed confirmed receiving the letter but had no comment beyond saying it would respond.

Warren is the ranking minority member of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Economic Policy and Cummings is the ranking minority member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

The letter asks Alvarez to brief Warren and Cummings’ respective staffs by Feb. 15.

The letter lays out five questions the two would like answered, including whether the inspector general or the FBI was involved in looking into the matter; the status of the investigation; and what the Fed has done to prevent such leaks in the future.

Market Making Info from the Fed

Lessons for Business from China’s Corruption Crackdown?

Vivvienne Bath writes: The scope of China’s campaign against corruption has been broad, and has swept up officials and businessmen, as well as their assets, both inside and outside China. Foreign owned companies operating in China have also found themselves under official and public scrutiny.

A conviction for bribery or for other white-collar crimes such as embezzlement can result in a substantial penalty, including a lengthy period of imprisonment or even the death penalty.

In September 2014, for example, GSK China, a subsidiary of GlaxoSmithKline. was fined almost US$500 million by the Changsha Intermediate Court in Hunan Province after a one day trial for paying bribes to non-government personnel, while four of its employees were also convicted (although given suspended sentences).

The commitment of the current government to prosecuting corruption has proved to be unexpectedly far-reaching. It has also had a number of economic effects, particularly by reducing gift-giving and hitting the luxury goods market.

Changes to the judicial system are  designed to reduce local protectionism by establishing divisional tribunals of the Supreme People’s Court and cross-jurisdictional tribunals; to improve judicial efficiency by establishing a civil service career structure and to discourage judges from avoiding potentially difficult issues by refusing to accept cases.

Does this mean the crackdown on corruption and the plans for judicial reform represent the commitment of Xi Jinping’s government to the implementation of the rule of law through a strong and independent legal and judicial system?

In relation to the reduction of corruption and the creation of a cleaner business environment, the answer to this is “probably not.” Although in January of this year, Xi Jinping ordered Party committees to enable judges and law enforcement departments to exercise their duties independently, he also emphasised the leadership of Party committees in judicial affairs and the importance of judges and procurators being loyal to the Party, the State and the people.

Despite the many improvements in the content of China’s laws and the quality of Chinese lawyers, judges and judicial system, the campaign against corruption, including decisions to investigate and prosecute corruption of officials and, in the case of officials, the entire investigation, is driven and run not by the police, the procuratorate and the courts, but by the leadership of the Communist Party.

In the case of foreign companies, there is a lack of transparency in the decision-making process relating to investigations which makes it easy to attribute political drivers to decisions to pursue foreign multinationals. This does not, however, reduce their potential legal liability.

Waiting until the trial to defend corruption charges would be a very risky strategy. After the verdict relating to GSK China was handed down, GlaxoSmithKline recognised its responsibility by taking steps to rectify the issues with its operations in China, by decoupling sales targets from compensation, reducing and changing engagement with doctors and expanding its control over invoices. Other foreign companies in China would do well to take the same precautions.

Corruption in China

Activist Shareholders Corporate Angels?

Is the activist shareholder going to save the public company?  Msybe suggests the Economist,  Passive index funds sell at the first sign of trouble.

Acitivist hedge funds take small stakes  in firms and act like political campaigners.  They solicit other shareholder support for demands to be represented on company boards, cost-cutting spin-offs and returning cash to shareholders. Acitivists are often loathed by public -company bosses for their belligerence and opportunism,

Activists have funds which are worth $100 billion and in 2014 attracted a fifth of all flows into hedge funds,  In 2014, they launched 344 attacks against public companies.  One-half of all the companies of S&P’s list o fmost valuable firms had a big activist on its shareholder register.  At least one in seven of these firms has been attacked by an activist.

They seek to improve a firm’s board, and win the support of big money managers.  Activists don’t losd up on debt, just 5% or so.  There is no takeover premium and they extract fairly low fees.  Poor performance resulting from nderperforming companies, poor managers and lazy capital can be overcome by the activists.  When they lead a revolt, they may give a company a new lease on life.

by Claudio Munoz

by Claudio Munoz

Carless in New York?

Roads are the arteries of the nation, and the automobile has been the centerpiece of American culture for decades. Despite Americans’ love for their cars, however, the rush hours are no more pleasant, and not everyone wants or can afford a car. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 9.1% of American households did not own a car in 2013. According to a review of carless households in American cities, residents in some urban areas are far less likely to own a vehicle. In New York City, 54.4% of households did not have a car, the highest percentage nationwide. Based on the percent of households who did not own a vehicle in 2013.

Curitiba in Brazil with a population of about 2 million instituted a bus system where buses ran every thirty seconds, you bought your pass in an attached shelter and exited from the other end of it.  Cited by ubran planners throoughout the world, Curitiba is one answer to getting rid of cars.

Curitiba, can buses replace cars?

Mrs. Merkel Shows Her Stuff

Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine agreed a deal on Thursday that offers a “glimmer of hope” for an end to fighting in eastern Ukraine after marathon overnight talks.

But all four leaders said there was a long way to go and accusations from Kiev of a new, mass influx of Russian armour into rebel-held eastern Ukraine further undermined the prospects for peace.

The deal envisages a ceasefire between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed.  Emerging separately from more than 16 hours of negotiations, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, one of the sponsors of the talks, differed with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the reasons they took so long.

Putin accused Kiev of prolonging the talks, the culmination of a dramatic diplomatic initiative by France and Germany following an upsurge in fighting in which the separatists tore through an earlier ceasefire line.

Merkel on the other hand, said Poroshenko “did everything to achieve the possibility of an end to the bloodshed.”

It is likely to ease pressure in the United States for Washington to send military aid to the stretched Ukrainian army, and from some in Europe for tighter sanctions against Moscow, due to be discussed at a European summit later on Thursday.

The agreement could also help protect Putin from any fallout from the deaths of Russians in the fighting, said by Ukraine to be soldiers. Moscow says they are volunteers.  As the deal was reached, Ukraine was offered a $40-billion lifeline by the International Monetary Fund to stave off financial collapse.

Russia’s economy has also suffered, from the sanctions imposed over its support for the separatists in eastern Ukraine and annexation of Crimea last year. Russian shares surged on Thursday after the deal was announced and the rouble gained, but then slipped back.

The agreement addressed a demarcation line between separatists and Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine will also get control of its border with Russia, but in consultation with the rebels and only after the regions gain more autonomy under constitutional reform by the end 2015.

The ceasefire and heavy weapons pullback would be overseen by Europe-wide security body, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

French President Francois Hollande said there was still much work to be done on the Ukraine crisis, but the agreement was a real chance to improve the situation.

The talks in Minsk took place as an International Monetary Fund mission agreed a bailout to save Ukraine from bankruptcy.  The Fund provisionally agreed a $17.5 billion facility with Ukraine, part of a $40 billion funding package, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said.

On the Russian side of the border, Moscow has begun military exercises in 12 regions involving more than 30 missile regiments, RIA news agency reported on Thursday, citing a Defence Ministry official.

Angela Merkel

How Strong is the US Economy?

Potential GDP is not the nation’s productive maximum, as would occur if all factors in the economy were employed to their fullest extent, but rather it is the maximum output that can be achieved over a prolonged period without straining productive capacity and thus increasing the risk that inflation will rise above the Federal Reserve’s goal.

GDP has never equaled potential output for a sustained period. Instead, there usually is a gap (expressed as a percentage of GDP) between the economy’s actual and potential output. Typically, that gap is negative during economic recessions and early in subsequent recoveries, when actual output is less than potential.  The gap has been positive, however—and in some cases substantially so—during later phases of economic expansions. CBO’s estimate of the output gap provides a measure of the slack or the overheating in the economy, and that assessment in turn can provide useful information to policymakers as they consider the economic consequences of various actions.

CBO’s projections of potential output guide its projections of actual output. For roughly the first half of its 10 year projection period (which currently runs through 2025), CBO projects the growth of actual output by estimating both the potential and the cyclical components of economic activity. For the latter part of the projection period, however, CBO does not estimate cyclical components. Instead, it projects that actual output will grow at the same rate as potential output but remain about one-half of one percent below potential, on average. According to CBO’s analysis, from 1961 to 2009, the nation’s actual output was below its potential by about that amount, on average, and below its potential, on average, during each of the past five complete business cycles (since 1975).  Congressional Budget Office GDP-Projections

Economic Strength?

 

Greece Making Its Case to EU-IMF

The Greek government wants to overhaul 30% of its bailout obligations, replacing them with a 10-point plan of reforms.

The EU-IMF bailout for the debt-laden country expires on 28 February and Greece does not want it extended.

Instead the new Athens government is asking for a “bridge agreement” that will enable it to stay afloat until it can agree a new four-year reform plan with its EU creditors.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government won a confidence vote with the support of 162 deputies in the 300-seat parliament.

The Athens stock exchange then fell by 4% ahead of the emergency Eurogroup meeting, which will see Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis unveil the controversial debt proposals.

The Syriza-led government says the conditions of the €240bn (£182bn; $272bn) bailout – sweeping spending cuts and public sector job losses – have impoverished Greece.

The government’s proposal for overhauling its bailout is:  1. Greece would co-operate on 70% of its bailout conditions but wants to scrap 30% – replacing it with 10 new reforms to be agreed with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). It is unclear what these would be. 2.Bond swaps 3. Reduce the primary budget surplus target for this year to 1.49% of GDP, rather than the 3%.

A swift deal with the EU is considered unlikely. Most finance ministers – including Germany’s Wolfgang Schaeuble – are insisting that Greece must not renege on its bailout conditions.

Speaking ahead of the Eurogroup meeting, its president, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said he did not expect a deal with Greece on Wednesday but that the group would listen to Greece’s ideas.

Meanwhile the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, praised Greek officials as “competent”, but warned that reaching an agreement would take time.

On the eve of the meeting, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis did not rule out clashing with his eurozone counterparts, saying: “If you are not willing to even contemplate a rift, then you are not negotiating.”

The stakes of the talks are high because of fears that a Greek debt default could push it out of the euro, triggering turmoil in the EU.

Greece’s debt currently stands at more than €320bn (£237bn) – about 174% of its economic output (GDP).

Greek Debt

Last month’s election win by radical left-wing party Syriza has led to suggestions that Greece could forge closer ties with Russia, although Greek officials have downplayed the idea.

After meeting his Greek counterpart Nikolaos Kotzias on Wednesday, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow would consider a request for financial aid from Athens if it came – despite Russia’s own financial difficulties caused by Western sanctions over the crisis in Ukraine.

The Greek Defence Minister, Panos Kammenos, previously said Greece might seek funding from Russia, China or the US if it failed to reach a new debt agreement with the eurozone.