Stress Tests Flummoxing US Banks

And this is good!  While no big U.S. bank failed the test, some of Wall Street’s marquee names were shocked by the disparity between their expectations and the Fed’s, such as projections for how banks’ assets and net income would fare in a severe economic downturn, said people close to the banks.

“We all ended up having a wake-up call on what [the Fed] thought our losses could be,” said a person close to the process.

Matt Levine estimates that discussions about how unpredictable these tests should be suggests: enough to keep the banks on their toes and make them think seriously about their crisis modeling, but not so much as to be a random outcome that makes modeling pointless.

How much the three revise-and-resubmitters took out of their revised capital plans: Morgan Stanley cut out a $4.9 billion preferred-stock buyback, JPMorgan cut out about $6 billion of capital return, and Goldman probably cut out about $3 billion.

Stress Test

Rate Cut Battles Across the Globe

Willaim Pesek writes:  The Bank of Korea has no shortage of diplomatic ways to explain yesterday’s surprise rate cut, including weak domestic demand, sluggish business investment and anemic exports. But it’s worth being clear what this move was really about: Japan.

For weeks, South Korean Finance Minister Choi Kyung Hwan and other politicians have been demanding that the BOK weaken the won so Korean exporters could better compete with their counterparts in Japan. Which was fair enough: Since mid-November 2012, when Tokyo began devaluing its currency, the won has surged 44 percent against the yen. Yesterday, BOK Governor Lee Ju Yeol finally bowed to the pressure, slashing the central bank’s repurchase rate a quarter of a percentage point to a record low 1.75 percent.

In some sense, however, South Korea still isn’t taking Japan seriously enough. South Korea should be less concerned about its short-term export woes and more concerned about the prospect of mimicking Japan’s lost economic decades since the 1990s. Unless policymakers act far more aggressively in the near future, they still riska long term state of “Japanization,” a semi-permanent deflationary funk that strangles living standards. Here are three ways Seoul can avoid that fate.

First, it should end its monetary stinginess. South Korea’s high household debt levels — currently at a record $962 billion, or 70 percent of gross domestic product — are said to have dissuaded Lee from cutting rates sooner.

Second, South Korea should prod companies to raise wages. Beginning this year, South Korea’s family-owned conglomerates, or chaebol, will be subject to a 10 percent tax on excessive hoarding of cash that could be better spent on wages or investments.

South Korean President Park Geun Hye could help change this situation by using her bully pulpit to shame companies that underpay workers. She could also push for tax laws that would give those companies financial incentives to hire their part-time staff to full-time contracts.

Third, South Korea needs to stop obsessing ovre exchange rates. The country needs to become more competitive, but it would be a mistake to pursue that goal solely through depreciation.

Park seems to recognize that South Korea must learn to thrive even when exchange rates move against it. She has pledged, for example, to build a creative economy that produces new industries, generates good-paying jobs and reduces the dominance of the chaebol. But for too long, South Korea has relied on depreciation to shield the country from creative destruction.

The BOK’s recent rate cut was the right move for now; in the short term, it should help exporters keep pace with their competitors. But if South Korea wants to avoid ending up in Japan’s economic rut, its ambitions will have to go beyond interest rates.

Interest Rates in Asia

Kleiner Trial Reveals Women’s Problem in High Tech

Katie Benner comments on the Kleiner trial and women in high tech.  The common thread that runs through the stories of both Vassallo and Ferraioli is that they were encouraged — implicitly or explicitly — to stay quiet about the way they’d been treated. Complaints were thought to be bad for “the team.”

If being on the team means giving up basic respect and safety, no wonder so few women want to make the bargain.

Silicon Valley isn’t purely bad. Ferraioli, who’s now at Google, says she’s found an engineering job she loves, with people who respect her. Vassallo, who was described by her Kleiner colleagues as a world-class investor, still serves on boards and acts as an independent adviser.

Unfortunately, most tech companies are way more comfortable attacking the pipeline problem, donating money to educational programs that draw women into the kind of math and science classes that feed into technology jobs. Apple just donated $50 million to this effort. Kleiner partner John Doerr often says something must be done to bring more women into his profession.

But if these companies want women in their ranks, they need to do more for the women they’ve already hired. They need to create a workplace where women want to be.  Kleiner Trial and Women in High Tech

Women in High Tech

 

 

Woman Power

Globally, approximately 22 percent of elected parliamentary seats go to women but in Rwanda, that figure is an impressive 64 percent. In the wake of the Rwandan genocide, 70 percent of the country’s surviving population was female, and this along with a quota requiring 30 percent of political candidates to be female, helped bring about massive change.

How does Rwanda compare to other countries across the world? Andorra, perched high in the Pyrenees between France and Spain, comes second with a 50-50 gender split in its parliament. Cuba rounds off the top three with just under 49 percent. What about the United States? It’s all the way down in 72nd position – only 20 percent of government seats in the United States are held by women.

Parliaments with the Highest Female Participation

Should the US Fed be Transparent?

Barry Eichengreen writes: The Federal Reserve is under attack. Bills subjecting the United States’ central bank to “auditing” by the Government Accountability Office are likely to be passed by both houses of Congress. Legislation that would tie how the Fed sets interest rates to a predetermined formula is also being considered.

Anyone unaware of the incoming fire only had to listen to the grilling Fed Chair Janet Yellen received recently on Capitol Hill. Members of Congress criticized Yellen for meeting privately with the president and treasury secretary, and denounced her for weighing in on issues tangential to monetary policy.

Still others, like Richard Fisher, the outgoing president of the Dallas Fed, have inveighed against the special role of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Reflecting the New York Fed’s heavy regulatory responsibilities, owing to its proximity to the seat of finance, its president has a permanent seat on the Federal Open Market Committee, the body that sets the Fed’s benchmark interest rate. This, its detractors warn, privileges Wall Street in the operation of the Federal Reserve System.

Finally, some object that bankers dominate the boards of directors of the regional Reserve Banks, making it seem that the foxes are guarding the henhouse.

This criticism reflects the fact that the United States has just been through a major financial crisis, in the course of which the Fed took a series of extraordinary steps. It helped bail out Bear Stearns, the government-backed mortgage lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and the insurance giant AIG. It extended dollar swap lines not just to the Bank of England and the European Central Bank but also to the central banks of Mexico, Brazil, Korea, and Singapore. And it embarked on an unprecedented expansion of its balance sheet under the guise of quantitative easing.

These decisions were controversial, and their advisability has been questioned – as it should be in a democracy. In turn, Fed officials have sought to justify their actions, which is also the way a democracy should function.

There is ample precedent for a Congressional response. When the US last experienced a crisis of this magnitude, in the 1930s, the Federal Reserve System similarly came under Congressional scrutiny. The result was the Glass-Steagall Act of 1932 and 1933, which gave the Fed more leeway in lending, and the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which allowed it to disregard earlier gold-standard rules.

The Banking Act of 1935, as amended in 1942, then shifted power from the Reserve Banks to the Board in Washington, DC, and confirmed the special role of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

These reforms reflected an overwhelming consensus that the Fed had been derelict in fulfilling its duties. It had failed to prevent the money supply from contracting in the early stages of the Great Depression. Heedless of its responsibilities as an emergency lender, it had allowed the banking system to collapse. When financial stability hung in the balance in 1933, the Reserve Banks’ failure to cooperate prevented effective action.

Given such incompetence, it is not surprising that subsequent reforms were far-reaching. But these reforms went in precisely the opposite direction from today’s proposed changes: fewer limits on policy makers’ discretion, more power to the Board, and a larger role for the New York Fed, all to enable the Federal Reserve System to react more quickly and robustly in a crisis. It is far from clear, in other words, that the right response to the latest crisis is an abrupt about-face.

Ultimately, whether significant changes are warranted should depend on whether the central bank’s interventions in fact aggravated the recent crisis, as they aggravated the crisis of the 1930s. But the Fed’s critics have been curiously nonspecific about what they regard as the Fed’s mistakes. And where they have been specific, as with the accusation that the Fed was fomenting inflation, they have been entirely wrong.

Fed officials, for their part, must better justify their actions. While they would prefer not to re-litigate endlessly the events of 2008, continued criticism suggests that their decisions are still not well understood and that officials must do more to explain them.

In addition, Fed officials should avoid weighing in on issues that are only obliquely related to monetary policy. Their mandate is to maintain price and financial stability, as well as maximum employment. The more intently Fed governors focus on their core responsibilities, the more inclined politicians will be to respect their independence.

Finally, Fed officials should acknowledge that at least some of the critics’ suggestions have merit. For example, eliminating commercial banks’ right to select a majority of each Reserve Bank’s board would be a useful step in the direction of greater openness and diversity.

US Fed Transparency

 

Is Deflation Good?

Daniel Gros writes:  In today’s global economy, there is no price as important as that of crude oil. More than 80 million barrels are produced (and consumed) daily, and a large part of that output is traded internationally. Thus, the sharp fall in the crude-oil price – from about $110 last year to around $60 today – is yielding hundreds of billions of dollars in savings for oil importers. For the European Union and the United States, the gain from that decline is worth about 2-3% of GDP.

For Europe, the benefits of cheap oil might grow over time, because long-term gas-supply contracts are to a significant degree indexed to the oil price. This represents another advantage for Europe, where prices for natural gas were, until recently, several times higher than in the US, which had been benefiting from lower-cost shale energy.

But many observers have argued that cheap oil also has a downside, because it exacerbates deflationary tendencies in the advanced countries, which already seem to be mired in a low-growth trap. The sharp fall in oil prices, according to this view, will make it even harder for these countries’ central banks to achieve the 2% annual inflation rate that most have targeted in fulfilling their price-stability mandate.

The eurozone, in particular, seems to be in danger, as prices are now falling for the first time since 2009. This deflation is bad, it is argued, because it makes it harder for debtors, especially in the troubled economies of the eurozone’s periphery (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain), to pay what they owe.

However,  what matters for debt-service capacity is the debtors’ income, not the general price level. As oil prices fall, households’ real (inflation-adjusted) income should rise, because they do not have to spend as much on fuel and heating. Lower oil prices make life easier, not harder, for highly indebted households in the US or the eurozone periphery. Falling consumer prices should thus be viewed as a good sign.

Most manufacturing enterprises will also benefit from lower energy costs, improving their ability to service their debts. This, too, is particularly relevant in the eurozone periphery. Lower prices make it more difficult to judge the point at which wage pressure becomes inflationary.  Government revenues depend on the value of domestic output, not only consumption. Though lower oil prices depress consumer prices, they should boost production and overall GDP.

This year, because consumer prices are falling, the GDP deflator (and nominal GDP) is still increasing, government revenues should be solid. ,

The fall in (consumer) prices that the eurozone currently is experiencing should thus be seen as a positive development for all energy importers. The eurozone periphery, in particular, can look forward to an ideal combination of low interest rates, a favorable euro exchange rate, and a boost in real incomes as a result of cheap oil. In a deflationary environment, lower oil prices appear to make it more difficult for the European Central Bank to achieve its target of an inflation rate close to 2%. In reality, lower oil prices represent a boon for Europe – especially for its most beleaguered nations.

Deflation?

India’s Infrastructure

Shahi Tharoo writes: In the days of the British Raj, when the railway budget rivaled that of the rest of the Indian government, the Parliament listened rapt to railway detials. Railway revenues today, at $23 billion, no longer dwarf the country’s budget, which now stands at some $268 billion. But India’s railways still produce other mind-boggling figures: 23 million passengers are transported daily (over eight billion per year, more than the world’s entire population) on 12,617 trains connecting 7,172 stations across a 65,000-kilometer (40,000-mile) network. And, with 1.31 million employees, the railways are the country’s biggest enterprise.

India’s trains carry four times the number of passengers as China’s, despite covering only half as many kilometers, but still lose about $7 billion annually.  A succession of railway ministers, viewing the trains as poor people’s only affordable means of transport, have refused to raise passenger fares, squeezing freight instead. This has proved popular with voters but disastrous for the country.

Though freight transport still accounts for 67% of railway revenues, with 2.65 million tons carried every day, the higher fares needed to subsidize passengers have deterred shippers. As a result, the share of freight carried across India by rail has declined from 89% in 1950-1951 to 31% today.

Instead, an increasing volume of goods is shipped by road, choking India’s narrow highways and spewing toxic pollutants into the country’s increasingly unbreathable air.

Making matters worse, politicians have continued to add trains to please various constituencies – but without adding track. Indeed, owing to land constraints, India has laid only 12,000 kilometers of rail track since independence in 1947, adding to the 53,000 left behind by the British. As a result, several lines are operating beyond their capacity, creating long delays.

But perhaps the biggest problem is how dangerous the railways are. Aging rails, tired coaches, old-fashioned signals, and level crossings dating back to the nineteenth century combine with human error to take dozens of lives every year.

Yet the railway ministers continue to insist on their populist approach. With the government losing $4.5 billion every year by subsidizing passenger fares, it has little money to spend on upgrading infrastructure, improving safety standards, or speeding up the trains. As a result, the railways run out of money before running out of plans. In the last 30 years, only 317 of 676 projects sanctioned by Parliament have been completed, and it is difficult to imagine how the railways will acquire the estimated $30 billion needed to complete the remaining 359 projects.

A technocratic new railway minister, Suresh Prabhu, has once again left passenger fares untouched and raised freight rates. Though, unlike his predecessors, he has resisted the temptation to announce any new trains, his plans for India’s railways remain inadequate.

Prabhu’s most impressive promise – to raise $140 billion from market lenders – is also his most problematic, as he has failed to clarify how exactly the railways would repay the loans. Given how high interest rates would have to be to attract investors, this will be no easy feat.

It is far from clear how Prabhu’s grand vision of a safer, cleaner, and speedier Indian railway system will be achieved in practice. The railway minister has created a dream budget –though “pipe dream” might be a more accurate description.

India's Railways

Why Does the US Have Fewer Banks?

The Richmond Federal Reserve writes: The financial crisis of 2007 – 08 was a major shock to the U.S. banking sector. From 2007 through 2013, the number of independent commercial banks shrank by 14 percent – more than 800 institutions. Most of this decrease was due to the dwindling number of community banks. While some of this decline was caused by failure, most of it was driven by an unprecedented collapse in new bank entry.  Why Fewer Banks?

Bankers and Lawyers Have Different Roles in Money Laundering?

William Hubbard, head of the American Bar Association, writes: A recent decision of the Supreme Court of Canada protects the integrity of the attorney-client privilege and the confidential lawyer-client relationship in connection with Canada’s federal anti-money laundering, anti-terror law.

The court’s Feb. 13 landmark decision in Attorney General of Canada v. Federation of Law Societies of Canada acknowledges the critical importance of the attorney-client privilege—known in Canada as the solicitor-client privilege— and strikes down portions of Canada’s Proceeds of Crime (money laundering) and Terrorist Financing Act and regulations that would intrude on the privilege.

The opinion reinforces the principles that lawyers are not agents of the state and that the government may not search lawyers’ records without a warrant. The decision also affords constitutional protection to the privilege and to a lawyer’s broader “commitment to the client’s cause,” meaning that the government cannot impose obligations on lawyers that undermine either principle.

Although the opinion is from the Canadian Supreme Court, it also has resonance for the United States. The attorney-client privilege is a bedrock legal principle of our free society. It enables both individual and organizational clients to communicate with their lawyers in confidence, which is essential to preserving all clients’ fundamental rights to effective counsel. The Canadian decision should serve as an important reminder to U.S. legislators and regulators that federal regulation of the legal profession has limits, including limits on measures that intrude on the privilege or on the broader confidential lawyer-client relationship.

Those who know of the U.S. government’s attempts to impose anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing mandates on U.S. lawyers will identify with the history behind the Canadian ruling.  Fifteen years ago, the Canadian Parliament enacted a sweeping anti-money laundering law requiring financial intermediaries—including lawyers—to collect, record and retain material. The law created a new agency to oversee compliance, and it allowed that agency to search for and seize material. Non-compliance subjected the offender to fines and imprisonment. Regulations adopted in 2002 subjected lawyers to the law’s recordkeeping and client-verification requirements and allowed the government to search and seize records, subject to a limited exception for the privilege.

The Federation of Law Societies of Canada challenged the constitutionality of these measures as they applied to lawyers and prevailed at every step of the litigation that spanned more than a decade. The court’s recent decision struck down those portions of the law allowing warrantless searches and seizures of lawyers’ offices and those requiring lawyers to monitor and report their clients’ financial activities to the government. The court reasoned that each of these actions would undermine both the privilege and the lawyer’s duty to the client.

ABA adopted voluntary good practices guidance in 2010 designed to help lawyers to detect and prevent money laundering in their practices. Last year, the ABA also collaborated with the International Bar Association and the Council of Bars and Law Societies of Europe to produce a lawyer’s guide with practical tips for detecting and preventing money laundering, highlighting the ABA’s commitment—both domestically and internationally—to educating the profession in this area.

The decision by Canada’s highest court eloquently recognizes the critical role that the attorney-client privilege and the confidential lawyer-client relationship play in our justice system. Although we are heartened by the opinion that will protect the Canadian legal profession from intrusive regulation, legislative and regulatory efforts that could imperil the same values remain in the United States.

Money Laundering and the Law

 

Did Maxine Waters, John McCain and Carl Levin Oust Credit Suisse CEO Dougan?

Dougan took over Credit Suisse in 2007, just in time to catch the worst global financial crisis in decades.

Last year Swiss lawmakers started pressuring him to resign after the bank plead guilty to helping clients evade taxes. The $2.6 billion fine the bank had to pay resulted in its first quarterly loss since 2008.

Pressure was mounting on Dougan from inside the bank too. After he testified on Capitol Hill about the tax evasion matter, a staff group representing Swiss bankers at Credit Suisse and other Swiss banks demanded that he apologize. They said Dougan’s testimony simply served to “vilify lots of employees that had nothing to do with offshore U.S. banking.”

Who knew what and when has been a continuig question in the investigation of banks, money laundering and aiding and abetting income tax evasion.  It is probable that the Department of Justice, the SEC, IRS and White House did not want to force an American banking CEO to plead guilty to criminal activities.

The Senate Committee on Investigations and a posse of legislators in the House and Senate kept insisting that top brass be brought to justice..  It is probable that a foreign bank was picked to take the rap.

Brady Dugan has claimed to have no knowledge of the schemes to aid and abet tax evasion.

When Maxine Waters insisted that the Department of Labor hold hearings on a Credit Suisse exemption from their criminal plea, evidence was submitted that Dougan did in fact know all about these schemes.  Pressure brought by the Labor Department hearing, the outcome of which has not yet been announced, may well have forced his resignation.

Credit Suisse wants the 2 billion US pension business it has been handling.  Proof that Credit Suisse had put aside its “culture of corruption” may have forced Dougan to step down.

It will be interesting to see if the exemption is now granted to Credit Suisse, and the reasons for which it is granted.  Clearly talk has been flying from the DOJ to the White House to the SEC.

Brady Dougan