Yellen Cozies Up to Congress?

Megan Wilson and Peter Schroeder write: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is upping her outreach to Capitol Hill, and one lawmaker is attracting the largest amount of her attention: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

A review of Yellen’s meeting records, obtained by The Hill, shows the Fed chief has had more than twice as many meetings and phone calls with the big bank critic as any other lawmaker.

Starting back in 2013 — the year former Fed leader Ben Bernanke announced he would retire — then-Vice Chair Yellen’s contacts with Congress began to increase. She held dozens of private meetings with senators in the months before and after her Senate confirmation hearing.

However, Warren was among the first lawmakers to approach Yellen in February. Records show the call lasted 30 minutes.

In 2013 and 2014, Warren had two phone calls and five meetings with Yellen. Rep. Maxine Waters (Calif.), the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, had one meeting and two phone calls. Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid (Nev.) also spoke with Yellen three times.

Warren’s outsize presence in Yellen’s daybook is yet another indication that, while low in Senate seniority, the prominent bank critic commands significant attention from influential people.

Yellen, for instance, on Dec. 2 went from an hourlong lunch with Warren at a Federal Reserve dining room to a meeting with Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase.

Warren’s office declined to comment on her frequent meetings with Yellen.

Sarah Binder, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that speaking most often with the Massachusetts Democrat does not a friendship make.

She noted that policymakers at this level have notoriously stringent schedules, leaving little time for pleasant chats.

“They don’t have time for nice meetings,” added Binder, who follows the interaction between the Fed and Congress.

Dennis Kelleher, head of the pro-reform group Better Markets, noted that Warren’s status as a low-ranking lawmaker may actually have made it easier for her to spend more time with Yellen. A former Senate staffer, Kelleher noted that more senior lawmakers often are spread out across multiple committees with wide-ranging jurisdictions.

Warren sits on many committees and is intensely focused on regulatory reform.

“Warren both has the time and interest to spend,” he said. “The more senior you get, the less and less time you have.”

The two last interacted in public when Warren sparred with Yellen.

During a hearing last month, Warren accused one of Yellen’s top advisers, Fed general counsel Scott Alvarez, of being uninterested in implementing some portions of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, forcing Yellen to defend the longtime Fed employee.

It may not all be adversarial, though. Warren has shown that she can be a pragmatist behind closed doors, according to emails from her first months at the newly formed Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. In the documents, she sometimes took a softer tone with the banks she vocally criticized in public.

Warren was also among a handful of Democratic lawmakers to publicly advocate for Yellen to take over for the Fed instead of Larry Summers, the president’s preferred pick. It is rare for lawmakers to publicly advocate for an individual before the president has made a selection.

She is also no stranger to other financial regulators. Records reviewed by The Hill show meetings with Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Mary Jo White and Richard Cordray, head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that Warren helped create.

Warren has helped to lead Democrats in pushing the Fed to take a tougher stance on new rules brought on by the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, while Republicans have often criticized the central bank’s monetary policy.

Yellen’s frequent meetings with lawmakers are likely an indication of lingering concern or dissatisfaction with the Fed’s work in the wake of the financial crisis, experts say.

In her congressional contacts last year, Yellen met with eight Republicans, typically over breakfast or lunch at the Federal Reserve or at congressional dining rooms on Capitol Hill. Among those dining with Yellen were staunch critics of the Fed, including House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) and Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Mark Kirk (R-Ill.). The latter two have co-sponsored legislation aiming to audit the central bank.

Yellen — who opposes the audit — said that while she may not always agree with lawmakers, she wants the Fed to be accountable to Congress.

“We have a wide range of responsibilities, and it’s entirely appropriate for me to testify and be quizzed on a range of topics by members of Congress,” she has said.

Overall, the meetings she held with lawmakers were only a fraction of her total schedule. Yellen held roughly 950 meetings during her first year at the helm of the Federal Reserve, according to a tally by The Wall Street Journal, and only reserved 23 for lawmakers.

“The real criticism might be: why aren’t more people talking to the Fed, rather than why is Elizabeth Warren talking to it so much?” asked Kelleher.

Are Long Term Bonds the Answer to Necessary Investments?

Barry Ritholtz writes:  Every once in a while, there is a way to resolve a host of problems that is so obvious it gets overlooked.

With that in mind, let’s have a look at four big problems: crumbling U.S. infrastructure; federal budget deficits;  normalizing U.S. monetary policy; and the shortage of investment-grade debt.

There is a single solution to all of them: Issue more long bonds, preferably 30- to 50- year securities.

Any rational, intelligent and prudent person would of course take advantage of prevailing ultralow rates to refinance this financial obligation. It’s fiscally conservative, it will save trillions of dollars, and it will allow the U.S. deficit to get paid down that much faster.

The main obstacle is the U.S. Congress, a collection of preening peacocks who really don’t care about the deficit.

How do we know this? Have a quick look at their past votes. Look at how they voted for unfunded tax cuts in 2001 and 2003. Tally their votes for an expensive war of choice in Iraq. Look at how they cast their votes for unfunded entitlements such as Medicare Part D. These votes reveal that most of the people currently complaining about the deficit have no interest in reducing it. They are merely using the deficit as a tool to pursue their partisan ideology.

You can do this with any issue — from Barack Obama’s stimulus plan in 2009 to George W. Bush’s Medicare Part D.

Placing political party over country is standard operating procedure; it is unacceptable.

There is a widespread belief that the Fed can achieve the same result by simply selling the $4.18 billion  fixed-income securities on its balance sheet. But that would be potentially disruptive, possibly causing an economy-crushing spike in rates. The more prudent approach is to simply let those holdings — with an average duration of about seven-years — run off as they mature. That would be the least disruptive method for the Fed to unwind the bond purchases stemming from its program of quantitative easing.Hence, we see that a variety of serious issues can be resolved by simply refinancing the country’s debt, issuing more paper and maintaining and rebuilding the U.S. infrastructure.

US Infrastructure

 

 

Booze and Other Drugs on the Road to Mandalay

Rangoon’s government bans alcohol sales after 10pm while students sit matriculation exams, and says it will re-enforce restrictions that prohibit those sales year-round after 11pm

Palaung rebels claim to have seized a heroin and methamphetamine haul worth over US$3.5 million while inspecting a mining truck in northern Shan State.

Domestic companies can now apply for wine import licenses, nearly one month after a major retail association stopped selling foreign alcohol demanding swift reforms.

Jakarta backs off from imminent execution of 10 drug smugglers, saying the sentences might not happen soon because some of them have legal appeals pending.

Road to Mandalay

De-capping the Swiss Franc

Matt Levine thinks and writes:  Up until January 15,  the Swiss franc was capped against the euro and was pretty quiet against the U.S. dollar, trading at about 1.02 francs to the dollar as of that morning. Then the Swiss National Bank removed the cap and the franc spiked to 74 centimes to the dollar, before pretty quickly bouncing back part of the way. It’s now back around parity. If you were short the franc against the dollar at 4:30 a.m. New York time that day, you had lost more than a third of your money less than half an hour later. But half an hour after that, your losses were back to a more manageable 15 percent. And two months later they had pretty much disappeared.

Unless, of course, you closed out your position on January 15, in which case your losses were permanent. And obviously someone was buying francs (selling dollars) all the way up (down). Someone bought francs at the worst possible time.

Probably a lot of people with no choice in the matter. People like “Tormar is the joint family office of former Goldman Sachs partners Ron Marks and John Tormondsen” (get it?), and it did a lot of foreign exchange trading with Citi as its prime broker. Much of that FX trading involved betting against the Swiss franc, using leverage from Citi. When the bad thing happened, Tormar’s equity vanished, and an awkward conversation became necessary:

Tormar was down $3.7 million on FX spot and forward transactions, but the bigger losses — responsible for $31.5 million of Citi’s claim — were for option trades. The biggest clusters of trades — assuming I’m reading the statement right! — were put options that Tormar sold on the dollar against the Swiss franc, betting that the dollar wouldn’t decline. 

Citi Prima Brokerage Agreeement

Prime Brokerage Termination Agreement

Citibank

 

Swiss Banking in the Shadows

Bloomberg offers scenes from the shadowy world of Swiss Banking

The Swiss banking industry is a $7 trillion secret.

It holds a third of the world’s offshore assets, including, say critics, the cash of dictators, despots, gangsters, and arms dealers—all protected by Switzerland’s strict banking secrecy laws.

UBS and Credit Suisse, which together account for half of the Swiss banking industry, have neighboring headquarters on Zurich’s Paradeplatz—one of the most expensive pieces of real estate in Switzerland. They’re said to own vast vaults beneath the square, containing gold, cash, and enough secrets to feed a myriad of spy novels and thrillers.

But the attitude toward what was once a source of national pride is shifting, fueled by politicians and even shareholders disenchanted with the apparent arrogance, incompetence, and venality exposed by huge losses, scandals, and galling bonus payments at the banks. UBS Chief Executive Officer Oswald Grübel resigned in 2011 after a rogue trader in London lost more than $2 billion, while in 2014, Credit Suisse pleaded guilty to helping Americans evade taxes and agreed to pay $2.6 billion. Meanwhile, smaller private banking outfits have banned their employees from traveling to the U.S. for fear of arrest.

Some Swiss call a clampdown on the banks an “economic war,” but there are widespread calls for greater supervision and tighter regulation. Even the hallowed banking secrecy law itself is under threat after the Swiss government agreed to hand over the names of 4,450 Americans with accounts at UBS after the bank was caught red-handed using secret codes and encrypted computers to help them dodge taxes.

The spotlight is an uncomfortable place for an industry built in the shadows. —

Anti-Austerity Demonstraters Outside the European Central Bank

Dozens of people have been hurt and some 350 people arrested as anti-austerity demonstrators clashed with police in the German city of Frankfurt.

Police cars were set alight and stones were thrown in a protest against the opening of a new base for the European Central Bank (ECB).

Violence broke out close to the city’s Alte Oper concert hall hours before the ECB building’s official opening.

“Blockupy” activists are expected to attend a rally later on Wednesday.

In earlier disturbances, police in riot gear used water cannon to clear hundreds of anti-capitalist protesters from the streets around the new ECB headquarters.

Merkel Seeks Peace with Tsipras

Alan Crawford writes:  German Chancellor Angela Merkel will seek accommodation in talks with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to calm the increasingly combative rhetoric between the nations and regain control over efforts to keep Greece in the euro.

Merkel, as leader of the biggest contributor to Greece’s 240 billion-euro ($255 billion) bailout, is willing to go a long way to find a compromise.

After weeks of sparring between Greece and Germany, Merkel is pursuing the talks now to try and get the discussion back on track. Any suggestion that she will deliver an ultimatum to Tsipras is complete nonsense and propagated by those who want to inflame the standoff, the official said.Merkel sees the meetings with Tsipras as more of a chance to get to know him, and doesn’t plan to directly negotiate the details of Greece’s fate, which she sees as a matter between Athens and its creditors, the official said. Her room for leeway on Greece is in any case limited by resistance from within her own parliamentary group, according to the official.

Merkel is convinced that now is the “right time to hold extensive talks,” Steffen Seibert, her chief spokesman, said,  “The talks will be about the situation between Greece and the other members of the euro area and how a way forward can be achieved.”
Acrimonious Exchanges

Tsipras is pinning his hopes to reach a breakthrough on a meeting he’s requested with Merkel, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, French President Francois Hollande and European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker on the sidelines of a European Union summit that starts Thursday. Merkel has also invited Tsipras to Berlin March 23 for one-on-one talks.

Euro-region finance ministers are urging Greece to draw up a plan to fix the economy in exchange for emergency loans to keep the country afloat. As Tsipras challenges his creditors to blink first, his government’s money is running out, raising the prospect of a cash crunch as early as this month. The country faces more than 2 billion euros in debt payments Friday, and government salaries and pensions must be paid at the end of March.

The ECB raised the maximum amount of emergency liquidity available to Greek lenders by 400 million euros on Wednesday, less than the about 900 million euros the nation’s central bank had requested, people familiar with the decision said.

Greek banks were cut off from regular ECB funding operations in February, forcing them onto Emergency Liquidity Assistance from the Greek central bank. The Frankfurt-based ECB has the power to curb ELA and is reviewing it weekly amid concern that banks will use it to finance the Greek government and so violate European Union law.

“People have asked us to put an end to austerity and bailout agreements, to begin the process of reclaiming the dignity of the nation,” Tsipras said. “We respond today, tomorrow and on Friday in parliament by building a wall of sovereignty and dignity.”

Merkel and Tsipras

Women Bursting into Podcasting

Alex Madison writes:  For years, if you tuned into a podcast, the voice streaming through your headphones would most likely belong to a man.

Late last year a true crime podcast hsoted by  by Sarah Koenig, became the fastest-growing podcast ever, hitting five million downloads. Women now helm two of top three most popular shows. And it’s not just those heavy-hitters: throughout the world of radio, there’s a clear shift toward recognizing the importance of getting more women behind microphones and into producing positions.

Vice President for Programming  holds up the instant success of Invisibilia as a sign of a breakthrough for women. “A lot of things that people have embraced about Invisibilia would have been deal killers years ago: two young women, who kind of sound alike, talking about science. People would have asked, ‘Can two young women really talk about science?’ Now that would be a ridiculous question.”

Podcasting, with its low barriers to entry and opportunities for experimentation, has been a much-anticipated space for media democratization since the early 2000s. It has the ability to elevate the voices of people often left out of traditional print and broadcast journalism. So why are women finding more success in podcasting now than we were just a few years ago?

1. Women who have been behind the scenes at major organizations have gained the skills, confidence, and opportunities to start their own shows. 

Since the dawn of radio, women have worked behind the scenes as producers, editors, and researchers. But recently, women are finally becoming more visible (or, audible) in hosting roles.

 “We got the skills and then we just decided, fuck it, basically. We just decided, we can do this,” said Alix Spiegel, one of cohosts of Invisibilia on the recent “Broadscasting Edition” of Slate’s DoubleX Gabfest. Invisibilia is her first full-time hosting gig, but Spiegel has worked in radio for over a decade: she was a founding producer of This American Life and worked on NPR’s science desk for ten years. Her cohost Lulu Miller was a founding producer of Radiolab before joining NPR in 2013. The Third Coast Audio Festival brought them together.

The examples go on and on. Before setting off Serial mania, host Sarah Koenig and executive producer Julie Snyder worked for years producing This American Life.

2. Feminist allies have been taking explicit action to close the gender gap.   

This isn’t just about women in radio needing to “lean in.” Even with relatively low barriers to creating new podcasts, it typically takes money, marketing, and connections to reach a wide audience.

3. Women are getting into leadership and driving development themselves. 

Of course, when women gain power in the “the machine,” progress often follows even more quickly. Eisenberg said, “I remember talking with the head of WNYC, Laura Walker. She was like, ‘God, we need more female voices, because there’s just not a lot out there.’”

4. The audience for women-hosted podcasts is getting louder and more powerful.

 5. Hearing more women’s voices on podcasts leads to even more women starting podcasts. 

Broadening the sound of radio could also expand radio’s audience.

Can Entrepreneurs Revive the Saree?

An Indian saree, six yards of utter simplicity and audacity, is the perfect garment. Folded, it looks severe and perplexing, like an extra-long bed sheet. Draped, it transforms itself and its wearer. No apparel so embodies the spirit of the region it represents. The saree suggests at once the minimalism of the ascetic and the sensuality of the tropics: lushness, sweat, sparkling white cotton, bare caramel-to-cocoa skin, loose folds of clothing that easily pull on and off.

No other garment is as antique and yet contemporary. The saree was worn by women of the Indian subcontinent thousands of years ago — and still is. No other civilization has spawned a garment that has survived so long, and yet even managed to thumb its nose at being embalmed in a museum.

The saree is worn at home and work by millions of Indian women from all walks of life. It is the perfect garment to be totally pregnant in or walk down a fashion ramp in; to transplant rice or to construct roads in; to take a presidential salute in; to get married in; to wash dishes in; to offer sports commentary in; to breastfeed a baby with total ease and modesty in; to wear to a board meeting in; to pray in or sleep in; to be covered from head to toe in; or to seduce a lover in.

No other garment is as versatile. In which other country could a nun like Mother Teresa and a Miss Universe winner wear exactly the same garment?

But the saree is becoming endangered. Pants or salwar kameez — a tunic with loose pants and a scarf — are becoming the daily clothing of choice for many urban Indian women. They are easier to wear and wash. They are seen as modern and more modest. They are more suited to the daily fight of throwing elbows in crowds and avoiding the lewd attentions of men. The saree is still a long way from being written off as a ceremonial and impractical garment like the kimono, but for increasing numbers of Indian women, sarees stay folded in wardrobes and are brought out for weddings and special occasions.

Can Entrepreneurs Revive the Saree?

Saree

 

The Netherlands Tackles Social Policies

Kaj Leers writes:  The Netherlands since World War II has been at the vanguard of social welfare reform in Europe. Social Democrats and Christian Democrats in tandem laid the foundations for a true welfare state in the late 1950s and the 1960s.

A pensions savings system, improved collective health care, basic government-financed unemployment insurance, welfare benefits, and state-financed education plans were introduced within a generation. Employers, workers, and the government all picked up part of the tab, and the discovery of huge gas fields in the north of the country removed all restraints.

From the 1970s onward, welfare schemes expanded. New benefits were designed, health care costs ballooned, and education expenditures increased. In the early 1980s, government expenditures had increased to such heights – just as the global economy pushed inflation to unsustainable levels – that the government pushed the major labor unions and trade unions to reach a national labor agreement. Unions would no longer demand outrageous raises; employers would invest in jobs.

In the mid-1980s, government expenditures accounted for more than 60 percent of Dutch gross domestic product. In those days, the Social Democrats, Christian Democrats, and Liberals were the biggest parties in parliament. They formed alternating government coalitions, with the Christian Democrats always being the centrists who pivoted to the Liberals or the Social Democrats depending on the outcome of the vote.

Since the late 1980s, much has changed – especially for the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats. Both parties, formerly responsible for the creation of the welfare state, set about tempering it, cutting back on expenses. Government-owned companies were privatized, markets were liberalized, and expenditures on government programs were cut.

But while parties dealt with the outsized welfare state, many of their voters didn’t follow. The year 2002 saw voters revolt. Out of nowhere one man, Pim Fortuyn, galvanized the discontent that part of the electorate had silently carried for years. Much to the surprise of many a complacent politician, it turned out that a sizeable non-voting portion of the population felt deeply disenfranchised and ignored by what Fortuyn dubbed “the establishment” or “the elite.”

Many of the discontended voters had grievances that had also been largely ignored. Whereas most of the political debate in the country had for decades centered on socioeconomic issues such as health care, education, social security, unemployment, and economic growth, a great number of these people were also worried about sociocultural issues.

The Netherlands saw the emergence of a PEGIDA movement avant la lettre – one made of people who didn’t demonstrate in the streets, but rather voiced their protest in the voting booth. Fortuyn played the identity politics fiddle so well that it was picked up by many other political parties, including the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats. Ever since the time of Fortuyn, who was assassinated just before the national elections of 2002, sociocultural issues such as crime, integration, and immigration have sat solidly at the forefront of Dutch politics.

Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party has pushed matters further than Fortuyn ever did.Wilders is currently in the crosshairs of the country’s Prosecution Office for alleged discrimination against Moroccans during an election rally. But the movement that supports him is unfazed; in polls, Wilders looks set to be the solid winner of the elections on March 18, handing him many new seats in the Senate.

Meanwhile, something else has changed. Among voters concerned with predominantly socioeconomic issues, even those on the right, are far less keen on cuts in health care, education, and even social security than they once were.

This has led the government coalition parties (left-wing Social Democrats and right-wing free-market Liberals) to turn the tables on the opposition.

In the Netherlands, political truisms have been turned on their heads. With even cost-cutting, small government-type voters rejecting austerity, it seems that ideas that were once vilified as leftist tax-and-spend politics have been internalized as schemes you can now take for granted.

Once again, Dutch voters in this respect may stand at the European vanguard.

Class DIvisions?