Can Greece Learn from the Baltics?

Peter Tenebrarum writes:  The privatization of the port of Piraeus, which Syriza had previously reportedly opposed is about to go forward after all, and is expected to bring in proceeds of around € 500 m. Pressure on the Greek government has recently increased, not only due to the fact that it is expected to run out of money soon, but also as a result of a downgrade of its credit rating by Fitch late last week to a lowly CCC rating. .

In a recent editorial in the FT, entitled “Greece versus the Baltics is not an argument for a heartless state”, John Dizard compares the successes achieved by the Baltic nations to the ongoing malaise in Greece.  The Baltic countries lacked faith in state-directed investment or in policies to maintain demand through accommodative monetary policy and fiscal stimulus. So they collectively decided they would have to pay themselves less, but in real money — what was called “internal devaluation”, or “austerity”.  Latvia had the sharpest fall in output, losing 24 per cent in two years, while sustaining a fiscal adjustment of 14.7 per cent. Over the same period, Greece’s fiscal adjustment was 6.6 per cent of GDP, even though its budget deficit and debt levels were far higher.

There were virtually no dismissals from the Greek civil service over this period. Salaries were cut, but public sector staffing was reduced with lay-offs of temporary contract workers and early retirements. This had the effect of reducing already low service levels and transferring costs from payrolls to pension obligations. Latvia fired one-third of its civil servants.

Even though EU money was made available to the Greek government for reducing the public’s compliance burden through the application of IT, resistance by public sector unions and the bureaucracy have left the public shuffling through even longer lines than before. The tax burden on salaried workers, compliant domestic businesses and property owners was substantially increased. In contrast, the Baltic states have fairly flat and relatively low tax rates, and are moving most of their compliance procedures online.”

David Stockman has written:  “Today’s raging crisis in Greece was hidden from view for many years in the run-up to its first EU bailout in 2010 because the denominator of its reported leverage ratio—national income or GDP—–was artificially inflated by the debt fueled boom underway in its economy.

Looking at the trend in the share of government spending to GDP in Greece, it becomes immediately clear that “austerity” essentially means “austerity for the private sector, while the State remains largely untouched”, correctly describes the prevailing state of affairs (consider that Greece has recently reported a mild recovery in GDP as well):

Latvia’s approach to the downturn was essentially the exact opposite of the standard Keynesian prescription. Since this path is only rarely chosen (one such rare instance was e.g. the 1921 recession in the US under president Harding), historical evidence is sparse, especially evidence of recent vintage. However, what evidence there is seems to confirm that the approach results in a thorough and swift clearing out of malinvestments in the economy and allows sound economic growth to resume fairly quickly. In a nutshell, it amounts to enduring severe short term pain in exchange for lasting long term gain.

One must keep in mind that every cent government spends is a cent the private sector can no longer spend or invest, since the private sector is the sole source of government funding. Whether government expenditures are financed by increasing taxation or by borrowing is secondary, as the funds must be obtained from the private sector in any case.

This should actually be blindingly obvious, but common sense has been missing in action from the public debate on this topic for quite some time.

It seems though that the idea of actually reducing the size of the State is still considered anathema in most of Europe, as tax hikes were generally favored over cutting spending in countries implementing austerity polices.

The EU and the Greek government may well come to an agreement this week that allows for the “extend and pretend” scheme to be resumed.

EU Commission president JC Juncker recently bemoaned the potential “loss of prestige” the EU would suffer if Greece were to be grexited. This remark didn’t received much attention in the press, but it basically represents word from the centralizers as to what they expect to be done. It should become clear in the course of this week whether an agreement that allows both sides to save face will indeed be struck.

 Can Greece Learn from the Baltics?

Smuggling in Thailand

SmugglingThai authorities said on Monday they had found a group of 76 migrants from neighboring Burma, including six suspected Rohingya, in a sign that one of Asia’s busiest smuggling routes is still thriving despite Bangkok’s vow to stamp out trafficking.

It follows the discovery in January of a group of 98 suspected Rohingya trafficking victims, including dozens of children, who were found in pickup trucks in southern Thailand.

Tens of thousands of Rohingya have fled Burma since 2012, when violent clashes with ethnic Arakanese Buddhists killed hundreds. Many head to Malaysia but often end up in smuggling camps in southern Thailand where they are held captive until relatives pay the ransom to traffickers to release them.

The latest group was stopped at Tong Sung district in Thailand’s southern Nakhon Si Thammarat province. They were heading to Malaysia in search of work, Police Colonel Anuchon Chamat, deputy commander of Nakhon Si Thammarat Provincial Police, told Reuters.

“They were sitting with Thai passengers and upon inspection by authorities were found to have no travel documents,” said Anuchon, adding that police have yet to determine whether traffickers were among the group.

“It seems they wanted to go to Malaysia for work and had boarded the train at different locations along the route. It is difficult to say whether traffickers are among them.”

Thailand is ranked one of the world’s centers of human trafficking. It was downgraded to the lowest “Tier 3” status last June on the U.S. State Department’s annual Trafficking in Persons Report for not fully complying with minimum standards for its elimination.

Last week, Thailand’s parliament voted overwhelmingly to introduce harsher punishments for human traffickers, including life imprisonment and the death penalty in cases where their victims had died.

Thailand’s military government said in January it was “confident” it had met the minimum standards to improve its ranking in this year’s U.S. State Department ranking.

But a government report aimed at lifting Thailand from the list of the world’s worst offenders showed it had identified fewer victims of human trafficking last year than in 2013 and convicted fewer perpetrators.

Anuchon said the 76 migrants were being questioned by immigration police and would likely be charged with illegal entry.

Greece Struggles

Greece fears it will run out of cash in April if bailout money is not released.

International creditors have suggested they are ready to extend help on Greece’s €240bn (£176bn; $272bn) bailout until the end of June.

But Mr Tsipras’s earlier reform plans met resistance from EU leaders, with Germany among the most critical.

Officials from the EU, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are examining the proposals this weekend, with a response expected in the coming week.

The Greek government said the 18-point reform programme did not include any “recessionary measures”.

 

 

Do School Children Deserve Good Food, Well Prepared?

Lenny Bernstein writes: In schools where trained chefs jazzed up fare, children ate more fruits and vegetables–and the schools themselves saved money, according to a study released online Monday in the journal JAMA Pediatrics.

Getting them to drink plain milk instead of chocolate milk was a much bigger challenge, however.Researchers at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health studied the eating habits of more than 2,600 third- through eighth-graders in two low-income urban school districts. The vast majority of the children were Hispanic, and their average age was 11 1/2. Trained chefs were randomly assigned to some schools to spice up fruits, vegetables and entrees with low-fat, low-salt recipes. In some of the schools, the project also experimented with how the foods were presented to the children in the food line.The researchers weighed the quantities of food the kids took and their “plate waste,” the food left over when they were finished eating. (Monitors collected the food before children tossed it into the trash.)

Not surprisingly, when kids were offered sauteed broccoli in garlic and olive oil or vegetable soup instead of hideous piles of indistinguishable greens, they tended to eat more of the healthful food, said Juliana Cohen, a research associate in the school’s nutrition department.

“What this study is showing is that this is an effective method to reduce plate waste,” she said in an interview. Children “are going to like the foods and they’re going to eat the foods.”

[Why do we still eat this way?]

This is no small matter, because, as the study points out, 30 million children receive meals at school each day and many of them rely on those meals for as much as half their calories. When those calories come in the form of junk food, they contribute to the current condition of U.S. school-aged children, nearly a third of whom are overweight or obese, according to an editorial that accompanies the study.

“When choosing what to eat, children are particularly influenced by the environment in which food is presented,” the editorial notes. ” ‘Choice architecture’ is the application of behavioral economic principles to the design of environments in which decisions are made.”

The Obama administration, in particular first lady Michelle Obama, has made more healthful school lunches a priority, but this study was conducted before new standards went into effect. (A separate study by Cohen and others belied accounts that kids were rejecting more nutritious food because of its taste.)

[First lady vows again to fight delays in enforcing school lunch standards]

In the current study, researchers found that consumption of entrees didn’t change much, but that didn’t bother them, because chefs were substituting low fat, low salt and whole grain meals for less healthful alternatives. After three months, the children didn’t change their selection of fruits and vegetables prepared by chefs very much, but after seven months they did. They also chose more fruit in schools where it was presented prominently. When both approaches were tried, fruit and vegetable consumption improved.

“We didn’t see the increase in consumption immediately,” Cohen said. “Schools shouldn’t abandon healthy foods if students don’t instantly” take to it, she added.

The only failure of the experiment occurred when the researchers pushed plain milk by making it more obviously available, in an attempt to persuade children to choose it over chocolate milk. That just didn’t work, and Cohen said schools might have to consider removing the sugar-sweetened beverage from cafeterias if they want children to make that change.

When I asked her how any school district could afford a chef, Cohen said the move actually saved money for the ones in this study. In addition to their training in recipes and food presentation, chefs from restaurants and caterers brought their knowledge of more efficient use of food and inventory control to the school meal operation, trimming costs for the districts.

 Broccoli?

 

Women Unrepresented in Top Health Care Positions?

Halle Tecco writes: Exactly a year ago, we decided to publish the gender data on founders at Rock Health. Despite women being the majority of our team and our board, only 30% of our portfolio companies had a female founder (today, we are at almost 34%). Because we’d like to help our portfolio companies access a diverse talent pool, we began the XX in Health initiative nearly four years ago.

The aim of this initiative is to bring women together to network and support one another. The 2,400 members of the group share resources and ideas on LinkedIn and meet regularly across the country. This week we’re hosting a webinar on the topic for both men and women, and next week we’ll host our sixth XX in Health Retreat in NYC.

Today, through this initiative, we are proud to share our third annual report on the state of women in healthcare. Our past reports on this topic have been some of our most popular content, and we encourage you to share this report with your colleagues.

Despite making up more than half the healthcare workforce, women represent only 21% of executives and 21% of board members at Fortune 500 healthcare companies. Of the 125 women who carry an executive title, only five serve in operating roles as COO or President. And there’s only one woman CEO of a Fortune 500 healthcare company.

Hospital diversity fares slightly better. At Thomson Reuters 100 Top Hospitals, women make up 27% of hospital boards, and 34% of leadership teams. There are 97 women that carry a C-level title at these hospitals and 10 women serve as hospital CEO.

We surveyed over 400 women in the industry to better understand the sentiment around gender discrimination. 96% of the women we surveyed believe gender discrimination still exists. And almost half of them cited gender as one of the biggest hurdles they’ve faced professionally.

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Having a diverse team creates a positive, virtuous cycle. Companies with women CEOs outperform the stock market, and companies with women on their boards outperform male-only boards by 26 percent. Researchers even estimate that transitioning from a single-gender office to an office evenly split between men and women be associated with a revenue gain of 41%.

 

Not only do companies with more women in leadership yield better economic returns, recent research also suggests it helps mitigate risk. One study shows that each additional female director reduces the number of a company’s attempted takeover bids by 7.6%. Another study indicates that companies with more women on their board had fewer instances of governance-related scandals such as bribery, corruption, fraud, and shareholder battles.

Empower your colleagues to promote gender equality in the workplace. This month we challenge you to reach out to that mentor, manager, peer, or mentee with whom you’ve been meaning to connect with. Ask her to grab coffee and send us a picture by April 30 so we can share it on the XX in Health website!.

 

Popular Economics?

George Will writes:

George Will writes:   Every day the Chinese go to work, Americans get a raise: Chinese workers, many earning each day about what Americans spend on a Starbucks latte, produce apparel, appliances and other stuff cheaply, thereby enlarging Americans’ disposable income. Americans similarly get a raise when they shop at the stores that made Sam Walton a billionaire.

The ranks of billionaires are constantly churned. Most of the persons on the original Forbes 400 list of richest Americans in 1982 were off the list in 2013. Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s CEO, was not born until 1984. America needs more billionaires like him, Michael Dell, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs. With the iPod, iPhone and iPad, unique products when introduced, Jobs’ Apple created monopolies. But instead of raising their prices, Apple has cut them because “profits attract imitators and innovators.” Which is one reason why monopolies come and go. When John D. Rockefeller began selling kerosene in 1870, he had approximately 4 percent of the market. By 1890, he had 85 percent. Did he use this market dominance to gouge consumers? Kerosene prices fell from 30 cents a gallon in 1869 to 6 cents in 1897. And in the process of being branded a menacing monopoly, Rockefeller’s Standard Oil made gasoline so cheap that Ford found a mass market for Model T’s.

Monopoly profits are social blessings when they “signal to the ambitious the wealth they can earn by entering previously unknown markets.” So “when the wealth gap widens, the lifestyle gap shrinks.” Hence, “income inequality in a capitalist system is truly beautiful” because “it provides the incentive for creative people to gamble on new ideas, and it turns luxuries into common goods.” Since 2000, the price of a 50-inch plasma TV has fallen from $20,000 to $550.

Henry Ford doubled his employees’ basic wage in 1914, supposedly to enable them to buy Fords. Actually, he did it because in 1913 annual worker turnover was 370 percent. He lowered labor costs by reducing turnover and the expense of constantly training new hires.

All these thoughts are from John Tamny, a one-man antidote to economic obfuscation and mystification. Thomas Carlyle (1795-1881), who called economics “the dismal science,” never read Tamny, a Forbes editor, editor of RealClearMarkets, and now author of the cheerful, mind-opening book, “Popular Economics: What the Rolling Stones, Downton Abbey, and LeBron James Can Teach You About Economics.”

In the early 1970s, when the Rolling Stones were coining money and Britain’s top tax rate was 83 percent, Keith Richards, lead guitarist and social philosopher, said: “That’s the same as being told to leave the country.” The Stones decamped to France, leaving Britain, Tamny notes, to collect 83 percent of nothing.

Economics for Fun?

Gold: US v China?

Jim Rickards writes:  A lot of people think about gold as a percentage of a country’s total reserves. They are surprised to learn that the United States has 70 percent of its reserves in gold. Meanwhile, China only has about 1 percent of its reserves in gold. People look at that and think that’s an imbalance. But those are not very meaningful figures in my view.  Gold: US v China

Gold- US v China

Banking in the UAE Hot for Social Media

Emirates NBD bank hot in social media:  Emirates NBD, Dubai’s largest lender, has been ranked 25th in the world for social media in 2014, the best performance by a bank based in the Middle East.

Compiled by The Financial Brand, a USA-based online publication, its Power 100 is the only like-for-like ranking of banks’ success rate in social media platforms.

Additionally, the bank was ranked 29 on the Top 100 banks on Twitter with over 41,000 followers, and 14 for most all-time YouTube views, in the independent survey that calculates ranking based on Facebook ‘likes,’ Facebook ‘engagement rate,’ Twitter followers, Tweets sent, YouTube views and YouTube subscribers.

Neil Halligan writes: Shayne Nelson head of the NBD bank announced income was up 22 percent to $3.9bn and net profit increased by 58 percent, to $1.38bn.

In what was reportedly one of the shortest AGMs in the bank’s recent history, shareholders approved an increased cash dividend of 35 fils per share.

A 36-year veteran of the banking industry, the Perth native admits his intended career path almost didn’t happen before it started, when he missed his stop for an interview with ANZ Bank.

From bank teller to CEO, Nelson has been involved in most parts of the banking industry, firstly in Australia and later in Asia, when he moved between Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia with Standard Chartered, before taking over as CEO of its Middle East and North Africa business.  He took over at  Emirates NBD a year ago. .

Emirates NBD’s recent conservative approach means that it can cope with any potential headwinds.

“Competition is quite tough,” he admits, “but we have scale and that’s one of the big advantages that we have in the UAE, with our branch network, our loan size, our ATM network, our point of sale, and so on. We have the right mix of business between consumer and wholesale,” he adds.

And he’s also added a few products in the bank’s treasury platform to tap into some fee-earning business that foreign banks had been capitalising on.

While the results and the changes that he put in place have all been positive for Emirates NBD, Nelson does have a number of concerns, including the price of oil and the effect on liquidity.

The Al Etihad Credit Bureau has been widely welcomed by the banking industry, including Nelson, who says banks will be able to “price the risk a lot better”, but he warns there could be a drop in consumer loan demand, and therefore spending as well, as banks “get to know what they didn’t know” about their customers.

Banking in Dubai

 

Should Central Bank’s Policies be Data Driven?

The U.S. Federal Reserve wants to get monetary policy back to normal without scaring or surprising the financial markets. Now, try defining “normal,” and you can see it’s going to be difficult.

A vital instrument of abnormal monetary policy has been the promise to keep interest rates at (roughly) zero for an extended period. Once rates have been raised off that floor, this kind of time-based commitment no longer works.

Ordinarily, incoming data would (or should) dictate how quickly interest rates go up. Quite possibly, if inflation fails to rise to its 2 percent target, the data will call for more rate cuts. The point is, nobody knows what the data will say. That’s why normal policy is inherently more confusing than policy at the zero lower bound — hence more capable of springing surprises.

In speeches during the past week, both Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer delved into this.

Fischer:

With respect to forward guidance: its role has been and continues to be important in the long period in which eventual liftoff has been the key interest rate decision confronting the FOMC and the focus of market expectations. However, as monetary policy is normalized, interest rates will sometimes have to be increased, and sometimes decreased.

The challenge, it seems, is to persuade financial markets that policy really will be data-driven.

This week the Financial Times quoted William O’Donnell, a strategist at RBS Securities, expressing a widely held view: “Data dependency and psychoanalysis of the Fed will continue to hold the reins of U.S. rates.” As long as forecasters think the Fed needs psychoanalyzing, there’s a problem with the way it’s communicating.

A Taylor-type rule for monetary policy could help in presenting Fed decisions, even if it wasn’t used to dictate them. Taylor-type rules explicitly link interest rates to inflation and the amount of slack in the economy.

Fischer said that a Taylor-type rule would ignore many factors that ought to influence interest rates, and that the Fed’s policy makers have to use their judgment in reacting to special circumstances — but he also said that it “can provide the starting-point” for decisions. If the Fed leaned more openly on a data-based rule in explaining itself, it would lighten the burden on the markets’ stressed psychoanalysts.

Optimal control is a rule-based method, but much more complex than a Taylor rule. It’s forward-looking and involves minimizing the economic losses predicted by a specific economic model. Everything therefore depends on whether the model in question is any good.

Nonetheless, the two approaches have important things in common: They put structure on one’s thinking and move data center-stage.

Starting-point, baseline, whatever. Policy rules shouldn’t be followed slavishly. Nonetheless, taking them more seriously — and being seen to do so — would help.

Data

Women: Good Sports?

Does women’s sports need more women coaches? Kavitha A. Davison writes:

The percentage of women coaching women has steadily dropped over the last four decades, owing to new positions and salaries as well as old stereotypes and biases. A common explanation, still touted by men and women alike, is that female coaches often choose their families over their careers. But that excuse doesn’t fly in the boardroom, and it shouldn’t fly on the bench. Plenty of qualified women want to be coaches, and it’s a problem with the system that they’re not.

Ironically, a major culprit seems to be Title IX, enacted in 1972 to ensure equality for women on campus. According to Women in Intercollegiate Sport, a longitudinal study conducted every two years since 1977 by R. Vivian Acosta and Linda Jean Carpenter, professors emerita at Brooklyn College, more than 90 percent of women’s college teams were coached by women when the law went into force.

Title IX has served female athletes well, helping to raise the level of competition and quality of women’s sports. But as women’s teams got better, coaching them suddenly became more desirable — and lucrative — positions for men. Head coach of a woman’s college team is now a legitimate and financially viable position for a man to hold. While their salaries don’t hold a candle to what their counterparts in men’s basketball get, Division I women’s basketball coaches can make well into the six figures, while a handful of top coaches such as legendary former Tennessee Lady Vols coach Pat Summitt and UConn coach Geno Auriemma can make millions.

With more men increasingly applying for these positions, it’s worth looking at whose doing the hiring. The Acosta/Carpenter study is a treasure trove of data, but some of its most telling sets of numbers are those on college athletic directors. Across Division I, Division II and Division III teams, the percentage of female college coaches of women’s teams is universally higher under female athletic directors.

That fewer female coaches are hired for women’s teams under male athletic directors can largely be explained by networking bias.

Gendered networking by male athletic directors isn’t necessarily intentional. But some recent high-profile personnel decisions seem to reveal the sexism female coaches can face from male administrators.

Then there’s University of Minnesota Duluth women’s hockey coach Shannon Miller, whose contract will not be renewed after March. The Boston Globe’s Shira Springer neatly sums up Miller’s bona fides: “Five NCAA Division 1 titles. Fastest coach to 300 wins in Division 1 history. Career winning percentage near .700. Head coach of the Canadian women’s Olympic team at the 1998 Nagano Games.” With 380 career victories, she’s fourth all-time in Division I women’s hockey history. Yet she’ll be out of a job after 16 seasons because of what athletic director Josh Berlo calls “financial considerations.”

Inevitably, people will ask, why does it matter whether women or men are in these jobs? Because more female athletic directors would help women’s sports be taken more seriously among university administrators, which will only help the growing number of high-quality female athletes. Diversity in coaching hires doesn’t just benefit qualified women who seek equal opportunities, it also helps the players. Much like in business or academia, female athletes need mentors and role models, women who hold positions to which they can aspire and who demonstrate that a career in athletics isn’t just for the men. Women’s college rosters include not just the next Diana Taurasi and Jenny Finch, but also the next Pat Summitt and Becky Hammon.

The good news is that the number of women doing the hiring is on the rise. According to Acosta and Carpenter, the NCAA had 239 female athletic directors in 2014, an 11 percent increase since two years before. And with women such as  Griesman and Miller refusing to stay quiet, it continues to shed light on the barriers women face until they’re fairly represented in both the front office and the sideline.

Harvard coach