Money in the New Cuba

In January 1961, a cargo ship arrived in the harbor of Santiago de Cuba bearing a load of freshly minted cash. Cuba’s pre-revolutionary peso had been stable and valuable for decades, a source of patriotic pride. Overnight, the Cuban revolution invalidated the old peso and replaced it with new bills, signed by Che Guevara and worth what the government said they were worth. The gesture sidelined opponents, reduced the independence of the professional and middle classes, and effectively seized the island’s remaining wealth in one gesture. In 1967, when Che died, it was his face that went on the currency, memorably gracing a 3-peso note that would get you lunch and a drink. Today that same bill is worth 12¢.

The end of Soviet subsidies in 1991 brought real economic desperation to Cuba. Dollars were traded on the black market. (In a dark Havana alley, I once got 125 pesos for a single greenback in a hurried transaction with a frightened man.) By 1994, in an effort to co-opt the black markets and once again take hold of the island’s resources, the government introduced the CUC. Initially this was strictly for tourists, the only legal tender for all those mojitos and langoustines. The CUC was pegged at 1:1 with the U.S. dollar, and just the commissions on exchanging it—up to 20 percent—earned the Cuban government billions a year.

No política. That’s what Yamil Alvarez Torres says as he settles onto a hotel sofa in Old Havana, his Under Armour socks showing a fashionable amount of ankle from beneath pressed jeans and a striped dress shirt. Alvarez looks the part of the new Cuban entrepreneur, a successful restaurant owner who has bourgeois hobbies—dogs and free diving—and an almost unlimited confidence in the future. But no politics. Like most Cubans, he avoids talking or even thinking about the nation’s closed and secretive political system too much.

Havana today is in physical bloom. A gallon of paint costs 30 percent of a typical monthly salary, yet half the houses in the city seem freshly painted. The once-ubiquitous and fuming thunder chariots of old Detroit are either shined up with new chrome and paint or, more often, sidelined by more recent and reliable Korean and Chinese vehicles. The people I’d known on the edge of starvation over the last 20 years of visiting are now fighting the creep of their waistlines and the return of pastries and deep-fried everything at street-corner kiosks. Even in 1991, Cuba seemed more open than it was, an island without barbed wire or machine guns, the friendly blue ocean serving as its Berlin Wall. Now the openness is tangible: In December, Cuba and the U.S. announced that the two intend to reestablish relations after more than four decades of enmity. On Havana’s streets, there’s a charge of anticipation, and one senses a people eager to embrace the world.

HSBC Massaged by DOJ Nominee?

William K. Black writes:  HSBC got a sweetheart deal from the Obama administration. It laundered vast amounts of money for Mexico’s murderous Sinaloa cartel, helped bust sanctions for terrorists and mass murderers, and did not cooperate with the investigation. The U.S. Attorney in charge of the case, Loretta Lynch, refused to prosecute any of the HSBC bankers or even sue them individually. Instead, there was a pathetic non-prosecution agreement limited to HSBC.  HSBC’s Sweetheart Deal

French Models: Thin Out Stout In

France will ban excessively thin fashion models and expose modeling agents and the fashion houses that hire them to possible fines and even jail, under a new law passed on Friday.

The move by France, with its fashion and luxury industries worth tens of billions of euros, comes after a similar ban by Israel in 2013, while other countries, like Italy and Spain, rely on voluntary codes of conduct to protect models.

The measure is part of a campaign against anorexia by President Francois Hollande’s government. Lawmakers also made it illegal to condone anorexia and said any re-touched photo that alters the bodily appearance of a model for commercial purposes must carry a message stating it had been manipulated.

“The activity of model is banned for any person whose Body Mass Index (BMI) is lower than levels proposed by health authorities and decreed by the ministers of health and labor,” the legislation says.

The lawmaker behind the bill previously said models would have to present a medical certificate showing a BMI of at least 18, about 55 kg (121 lb) for a height of 1.75 meters (5.7 feet), before being hired for a job and for a few weeks afterwards.

The law, voted through the lower house of parliament by Hollande’s Socialist majority despite opposition by conservative parliamentarians, envisages imprisonment of up to six months and a fine of 75,000 euros ($82,000) for any agency contravening it.

A second measure means that any website inciting a reader to “seek excessive thinness by encouraging eating restrictions for a prolonged period of time, resulting in risk of mortality or damage to health” will face up to a year in prison and fines of up to 100,000 euros.

Elite and IMG, two big modeling agencies present in France, both declined to comment on the moves.

Some 30,000-40,000 people in France suffer from anorexia, most of them teenagers, health experts estimate.

In 2010, Isabelle Caro, an anorexic 28-year-old former French fashion model, died after posing for a photographic campaign to raise awareness about the illness.

Minnie In and Out

Ending the Cold War with Iran

Peter Beinert writes: The United States should push for the best nuclear deal with Iran that it possibly can. But it’s now obvious, almost three decades after Reagan signed the INF deal with Gorbachev, that it’s not the technical details that mattered. What mattered was the end of a cold war that had cemented Soviet tyranny and ravaged large chunks of the world. Barack Obama has now begun the process of ending America’s smaller, but still terrible, cold war with Iran. In so doing, he has improved America’s strategic position, brightened the prospects for Iranian freedom and Middle Eastern peace, and brought himself closer to being the kind of transformational, Reaganesque president he always hoped to be.  Ending the Cold War with Iran

Ending the Cold War

Iran: The Beginning of a Beautiful Friendship for Entrepreneurs?

Tony Burman writes:  If this deal ultimately leads to a constructive new partnership with the West, which existed before the Islamic revolution of 1979, it will dramatically change the strategic balance in the Middle East. And this will be for the good.

Inevitably, as the final deadline in June approaches, the voices against this deal with Iran will be loud and alarmist. They will exploit the media’s often uncritical echo chamber to terrify. Working for peace is hard work and complicated, but sounding bold and bellicose is easy.

We only have the past century to remind us. We can still hear the voices that bellowed “treason” in response to any nuclear deal with the Soviet Union’s “evil empire” or to any accommodation with “Red China.” But those courageous acts changed the direction of the world for the good

The battle for American public opinion has only begun. A Washington Post/ABC News poll released on Tuesday showed that Americans by nearly a 2-to-1 margin support a deal with Iran but are skeptical that Iran will keep to the bargain. This week’s drama has only emboldened critics of the deal. Already, there are calls from American conservatives for Israel, the U.S. or both to bomb Iran. In the U.S. Congress, the Republicans have vowed to do what they can to block the interim accord and to try to impose added sanctions on Iran.

Three major objections to this interim agreement are wrong on all three counts:

  • “Additional sanctions would produce a better deal.”

Not true. Decades of sanctions against Iran didn’t force Iran to give up its nuclear program or convince Iranians to revolt. Additional sanctions will simply persuade Iran that negotiations are a waste of time and to conclude that the real western motive is “regime change.”

  • “Iran will be allowed to cheat.”

Why should this be so? Yes, Iran has cheated in the past but that was because the monitoring was weak. This isn’t a deal being made in the dead of night with casual drifters. This is an agreement that is being signed by six of the world’s great powers.

  • “A strengthened Iran will destabilize the Middle East.”

Again, why should this be so? Iran is a cultured, civilized country with a vibrant young population that wants to come in from the cold — in fact, they are insisting on it. If this process unfolds as outlined, why wouldn’t Iran become a positive force in the evolution of a region that we all know is clearly broken.

History is replete with self-serving politicians eager to show off their manhood by sending other people’s children to die in their name. We have miraculously survived the 20th century because enough people, eventually, said ‘no’ to them.

That challenge is no less urgent now, and this week’s historic breakthrough with Iran — because of its promise and in spite of its risks — can be a big step along that journey.

 Iran Negotiations

Yellen: Fed Interest in Inequality

In a speech defending the Federal Reserve’s interest in economic inequality issues, Chairwoman Janet Yellen said more work needs to be done to understand what conditions allow people to rise up and down the income ladder in the U.S.

“We know that families are the locus of both opportunities and barriers to economic mobility,” but from that point, there remains a lot of uncertainty about the forces that affect and shape a person’s performance in the economy, Ms. Yellen said. Her comments come from the text of a speech prepared for delivery in Washington before a Fed community development research conference.

Ms. Yellen pushed back at those who have been uncomfortable with her recent comments on income inequality. Some believe that a central bank that is charged with promoting price stability and job creation has no business addressing politically-charged matters of individual economic performance. Ms. Yellen faced considerable criticism from Republicans in her last visit before congress from some legislators who believed her comments on inequality were political in nature.

In her speech, Ms. Yellen rejected these arguments. “Economic inequality has long been of interest within the Federal Reserve System,” she said, citing a 2007 speech by then-Chairman Ben Bernanke.

She said the broader public cares, too. According to a survey, “the gap between rich and poor now ranks as a major concern in the minds of citizens around the world,” she said, adding “in advanced economies still feeling the effects of the Great Recession, people worry that children will grow up to be worse off financially than their parents were.”

Ms. Yellen observed these concerns cut across ideological lines, and that it is clear it is a matter than needs more study.

When it comes to economic mobility, Ms. Yellen said more knowledge is needed on how one’s circumstances at birth affect earnings and wealth later. Family dynamics and expectations can also play a role, as well as events over which individuals have no control.

Yellen Concerned about Inequality

Jobs, Employment, US Fed, Interest Rates?

Federal Reserve policy makers have another reason to delay an interest-rate increase after a weak March payrolls report corroborated a first-quarter slowdown in the U.S. economy. The question is whether that’s reason enough.Employers last month added the fewest jobs since December 2013, creating just 126,000 positions, the Labor Department said Friday. Revisions erased 69,000 jobs from previously reported tallies for January and February. The weaker data contrast with 12 straight months of 200,000-plus monthly gains.The Fed is watching for the economy to reach or approach full employment and generate higher inflation before raising interest rates from near zero. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues last month opened the door to an increase as soon as June, while also suggesting in forecasts that September may be a more likely time to begin tightening.

“This single report will not necessarily result in the Fed changing tack on its view of policy tightening this year,” Millan Mulraine, a research strategist at TD Securities USA LLC in New York, wrote in a note after the report. “What it will do is weaken the argument for a mid-year hike and it will place a greater premium on the next few employment reports as the Fed looks for evidence that the relapse in economic growth and labor market momentum is temporary.”

Mulraine maintained his projection for an increase in September, though he said the “balance of risks” is shifting to a later start. Policy makers will get two more employment reports before their meeting on June 16-17, when they will also release new economic and interest-rate forecasts.

Fed officials in March lowered their median estimate for the main rate at the end of 2015 to 0.625 percent, compared with 1.125 percent in December forecasts. The estimate for the end of 2016 fell to 1.875 percent from 2.5 percent, according to the Federal Open Market Committee’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections.

The weak payrolls number could cause FOMC members to turn increased attention to jobs data and away from inflation “at the margin,” said Ray Stone, managing director at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey.

He said they’ll have to see if the U.S. returns to its strong job-adding streak. “Even though we had a downshifting here, I think the FOMC has to be pretty satisfied with the broader trends in employment.”

Full Employment

The jobless rate held at a six-year low of 5.5 percent in March, near the level policy makers estimate for what constitutes full employment. Most project it’s equivalent to a 5 percent to 5.2 percent unemployment rate, down in March from the 5.2 percent to 5.5 percent range they had in December.

Because it’s difficult to tell how Fed officials will react to a single month of weak jobs data, this report makes it even harder to project the central bank’s next move, Jim Baird, partner and chief investment officer for Plante Moran Financial Advisors in Southfield, Michigan, wrote in a note.

“This data does more to muddy the waters of expectations than provide clarity around policy makers’ next steps,” he wrote.

The outlook appears more upbeat to Karen Dynan, the Treasury Department’s chief economist and a former top researcher at the Fed board during a 17-year career there. “Domestic fundamentals look strong” and the world’s largest economy remains poised for above-trend growth in 2015 even after the March slowdown in jobs creation, Dynan said in an interview in Washington following remarks at a Fed conference.

The economy expanded at a 2.2 percent annualized pace in the fourth quarter. First-quarter growth probably was 2 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The slowdown can mainly be blamed on severe winter weather, according to 18 of 37 economists in a separate survey conducted this week.

The odds on the Fed increasing interest rates, one way or the other, have decreased.  Should this really impact markets?  Moot question.  It does.

Interest Rates?

President Rouhani Key to Iran Deal

President Hassan Rouhani has emerged triumphant both at home and abroad, bringing Iran in from the cold.

Iran and world powers reached a framework agreement on Thursday on curbing Iran’s nuclear program for at least a decade, a step towards a final pact that could end 12 years of brinkmanship, threats and confrontation.

If the deal results in a comprehensive agreement in June, Rouhani’s popularity would grow even further, giving him the political capital to take on hardliners blocking his promises of political and social reforms in the Islamic Republic.

A 66-year-old mid-ranking cleric who formerly served as Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Rouhani dismisses any suggestion that his pragmatism represents a betrayal of the Islamic Republic’s founding precepts.

A comprehensive deal in June could see the West lift the trade and financial sanctions that are strangling the economy in return for limits on its atomic work, which the West says may be aimed at building weapons but that Tehran says is for peaceful purposes.

Progress has been possible in part because Rouhani has kept the confidence of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the so-called guardian of Iran’s Islamic Revolution who has the final say on all matters of state, including foreign policy.

Rouhani is bolstered by impeccable revolutionary credentials. In his early life he studied religion and opposed the then Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, joining Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in exile in Paris in 1977. After Khomeini came to power, he cemented his insider status in a series of sensitive postings.

A month after he assumed office, Rouhani and US President Barack Obama spoke by phone in September 2013 in what remains the highest-level contact between the two nations in 30 years.

The call was the culmination of a sharp shift in tone between Iran and Washington, which cut ties with Iran a year after the 1979 revolution that toppled the Shah.

Much of Rouhani’s diplomatic success has been a matter of style. The softly-spoken lawyer, who earned his doctorate in the UK, has refrained from the provocations of his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who denied the Holocaust and called for Israel to be “wiped from the pages of time.”

Known for being charismatic and eloquent, Rouhani is an active social media user, often tweeting his views about world issues, and seen as open for debate.

Rouhani kept a close eye on the talks from Tehran, and intervened a week before the interim deal by calling the leaders of France, Britain, China and Russia in an apparent attempt to break a momentary impasse.

Today, periodic bilateral talks between Washington and Iran on nuclear and regional topics appear almost commonplace, even in the absence of formal diplomatic relations, making good on Rouhani’s pledge of greater international engagement.

Iran Negotiations

Entrepreneurship Sponsored by Obama!

President Barack Obama announced he will travel to Kenya in July to lead his annual entrepreneurship summit.

One important theme from the recent Global Entrepreneurship Congress in Milan – the importance of women entrepreneurs to economic growth whether in an African village or in the Valley.

One of Silicon Valley’s most prominent venture capital firms recently hit the news for reasons other than successful investment — a suit alleging gender discrimination in the workforce.

Alicia Robb, a Kauffman Foundation senior fellow and visiting scholar at UC-Berkeley, led an insightful discussion on high growth in women’s entrepreneurship earlier this month at the Global Entrepreneurship Congress examining problems of gender diversity within the ranks of startups. She was joined by Ruta Aidis, who leads Women’s Entrepreneurship Research Forum and suppors Dell Inc.’s efforts to better understand the unique challenges women entrepreneurs face in starting and scaling their businesses.

While the U.S. leads in global rankings of women’s entrepreneurship, the data points to a glaring absence of women founding new enterprises in the high-tech sector. This, is due to a variety of reasons but the root causes are structural and cultural.

Rebeca Hwang, the cofounder of Rivet Ventures, an early stage venture fund that backs startups targeting female-centric markets, is doing something about this and highlighting the huge yet largely untapped potential that female consumers represent. Even half a century since women entered the workforce, she said, we see many opportunities that male-dominated venture funds simply miss.

She explained that when entrepreneurs, male or female, target women consumers who represent more than half the U.S. market, they must first overcome the understandably male-oriented worldview of male-dominated venture funds.

Girls, she said, are just as talented as boys and that when given the same opportunities, women achieve at the same or higher rates than men. If there is a confidence gap, she said, it’s a reflection of upbringing, not an inherent distinction.

One African Minister who inspired many last week in Milan will be pleased about today’s news of the President’s decision to visit the continent to promote entrepreneurship.

“More than anything else we must create a good environment because the people of South Africa are very creative and industrious and they are able to make their living for themselves,” said Lindiwe Zulu, South Africa’s eloquent Minister of Small Business Development.

President Obama’s Administration is unlikely to need much prodding on including a focus on women’s entrepreneurship. Much of the work that the State Department and Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes have led on advancing entrepreneurship overseas has stressed women and youth.

Obama’s personal leadership of this summit offers a unique opportunity once and for all to ensure that those in charge of economic policy around the globe never again view entrepreneurs as merely a side ring at the circus but rather the most powerful driver of new jobs, economic prosperity and innovation and political stability for all.

Debt in Emerging Countries

Andres Velasco writes:  Consider the following scenario, one that has played out time and again in emerging-market countries. Local banks and firms go on a borrowing binge and pile up dollar-denominated debt – debt that pundits consider perfectly sustainable, as long as the local currency is strong. Suddenly, something (an increase in United States interest rates, a drop in commodity prices, a domestic political conflict) causes the local currency to drop in value against the dollar. The debt burden, measured in domestic currency, is now much higher. Some borrowers miss interest payments; others are unable to roll over principal. Financial mayhem ensues.

This is how the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, the Mexican Tequila crisis of 1994, the Asian debt crisis of 1997, and the Russian crisis of 1998 unfolded. It was also how the financial crisis of 2008-2009 transmitted itself to emerging markets. Every time, borrowers and lenders claimed to have learned their lesson.

Not only could it happen again today; it could happen on a much larger scale than in the past. Taking advantage of ultra-low interest rates in advanced countries, emerging-market banks and firms have been borrowing like never before. A recent paper by the Bank of International Settlements shows that since the global financial crisis, outstanding dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the US has risen by half, from $6 trillion to $9 trillion.

The bulk of that debt is in Asia, with China alone accounting for approximately $1 trillion. Other big dollar borrowers include Brazil (over $300 billion) and India ($125 billion). Countries such as Malaysia, South Africa, and Turkey, plus Latin America’s more financially open economies, also have rising foreign-currency debts.

Yes, the almighty dollar is not as mighty as it was before the US Federal Reserve surprised markets with a more-dovish-than-expected communiqué earlier this month. But, given the likely interest-rate differential between the US and other advanced economies (particularly the eurozone and Japan), together with a more robust US economic recovery, an era of dollar strength – and, almost by definition, weak emerging-market currencies – is here to stay.

This likely means trouble for the firm that borrowed in dollars to build a shopping mall in São Paulo or Kuala Lumpur, and now must devote a much larger share of its revenues in depreciated real or ringgit to service its debt.

How did we get here? Once upon a time, conventional wisdom maintained that curbing governments’ appetite for debt would put an end to over-borrowing, because private agents would know to act prudently and weigh the costs and benefits of one more dollar of debt.

Not even stern University of Chicago economists believe that anymore. The fiscal and debt position of many emerging economies (though not of Argentina, Venezuela, and other poster children for mismanagement) is much stronger than it once was. But private-sector CFOs seem determined to prove that they can borrow as lavishly as their public-sector colleagues once did.

Conventional wisdom also once held that dollar borrowing binges occur only in countries with fixed exchange rates, with the central bank de facto insuring borrowers against currency risk. Today, most emerging-market economies have (or at least pretend to have) floating exchange rates, and yet locals continue to borrow heavily in foreign currency.

This partly reflects borrowing-cost differentials. If the local interest rate is 17% per year and the dollar interest rate is 2%, it still makes sense to borrow in dollars as long as the domestic currency is expected to depreciate 15% or less.

The other part of the explanation follows from what the economists Guillermo Calvo and Carmen Reinhart call “fear of floating.” Many market participants know from past experience (recall 2008-2009, for example) that emerging economies’ central banks fear sharp depreciations, and that in moments of stress they tend to intervene, at least temporarily, to support the exchange rate, “smoothing” its decline. So a speculator who is quick on his feet can make a handsome profit and get out while the music is still playing.

How vulnerable are emerging economies because of all this dollar debt? Optimists like to point out that emerging markets have accumulated a huge stock of international reserves since 2010, enabling them to self-insure against a run on their currencies or their foreign debt. That is true, but only up to a point.

Having tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars in the central bank’s vault sounds reassuring until you realize that dollar debt coming due in the next 12 months may not be that much smaller. The data are not fully reliable or comparable across countries, but quick calculations reveal that there are many emerging markets where such short-term debt is 50% or more of the stock of international reserves.

And dollar debtors may not be alone in staking a claim on those reserves. In a squeeze, holders of domestic currency will want to exchange it for greenbacks. If the central bank is serious about floating, it will hike local interest rates to limit price increases, causing a painful recession. Alternatively, it may intervene and sell international reserves, reducing the stock available to repay dollar debt.

Optimists also argue that some local borrowers are naturally hedged. Yes, some export companies that borrow dollars also earn dollars. But they are in the minority, and even they can have problems, because depreciation reduces the dollar value of their domestic assets, causing breaches in loan covenants and potentially impairing access to credit.

There are risks even for banks that make the effort to match their dollar borrowing from abroad with dollar loans extended at home. There may be no obvious currency mismatch for the bank, but if the local borrowers’ revenues are only in domestic currency, they may become unable to service their debt. Risk eliminated by regulations in one place reappears somewhere else.

For the many emerging-market firms that borrowed in dollars to generate local-currency revenue, the recent depreciation is triggering plenty of financial trouble. How much trouble will ultimately depend on factors that are very hard to forecast, including markets’ responses to Fed tightening and political shocks (say, the scandal enveloping Petrobras in Brazil) that shake investors’ faith in local policies and markets. One can predict only one outcome with confidence: a bumpy ride.  Debt in Emerging Countries

A Bumpy Ride