Xi Jinping Spreads His Wings

Chinese President Xi Jinping will launch energy and infrastructure projects worth $46 billion on a visit to Pakistan next week as China cements links with its old ally and generates opportunities for firms hit by slack growth at home.

Also being finalised is a long-discussed plan to sell Pakistan eight Chinese submarines. The deal, worth between $4 billion and $5 billion, according to media reports, may be among those signed on the trip.

Commercial and defense ties are drawing together the two countries, which share a remote border and long-standing mistrust of their increasingly powerful neighbor, India, and many Western nations.

“China treats us as a friend, an ally, a partner and above all an equal – not how the Americans and others do,” said Mushahid Hussain Sayed, chairman of the Pakistan parliament’s defense committee.

Pakistan and China often boast of being “iron brothers” and two-way trade grew to $10 billion last year from $4 billion in 2007, Pakistani data shows.

Xi’s trip is expected to focus on a Pakistan-China Economic Corridor, a planned $46-billion network of roads, railways and energy projects linking Pakistan’s deepwater Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea with China’s far-western Xinjiang region.

It would shorten the route for China’s energy imports, bypassing the Straits of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia, a bottleneck at risk of blockade in wartime.  If the submarine deal is signed, China may also offer Pakistan concessions on building a refueling and mechanical station in Gwadar, a defense analyst said.

China’s own submarines could use the station to extend their range in the Indian Ocean.  “China is thinking in terms of a maritime silk road now, something to connect the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean,” said a Pakistani defense official, who declined to be identified.

For Pakistan, the corridor is a cheap way to develop its violence-plagued and poverty-stricken Baluchistan province, home to Gwadar.

China has promised to invest about $34 billion in energy projects and nearly $12 billion in infrastructure.

Xi is also likely to raise fears that Muslim separatists from Xinjiang are linking up with Pakistani militants, and he could also push for closer efforts for a more stable Afghanistan.  “One of China’s top priorities on this trip will be to discuss Xinjiang,” said a Western diplomat in Beijing. “China is very worried about the security situation there.”

Xi Jinping Spreads his Wings

S&P Gives Greece Close to “D”

Ratings agency S&P has downgraded Greece’s credit rating again, saying it expects its debt and other financial commitments will be “unsustainable”.

It has dropped long and short-term sovereign credit ratings to CCC+/C from B-/B and says its outlook is negative. Markets use sovereign ratings to work out the interest rate at which investors should lend to a country.

The budget deficit – the difference between its revenue and spending – was 3.5% of GDP, compared with the prediction of 0.8%. The worsening finances of the government could see Greece’s creditors pushing for further austerity, experts said.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that an agreement between Athens and its creditors was unlikely to happen any time soon.

The Syriza government is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its eurozone partners in an attempt to lessen the burden of its debt repayments. A €750m ($800m; £540m) payment is due on 12 May, but the government will struggle to make it.

Athens faces a “choice between paying the IMF or paying the wages and pensions of its employees”, Raoul Ruparel, head of economic research at Open Europe, told the BBC.

“For a radical left-wing government such as Syriza, that is a very poisonous choice.”

The Greek economy has shrunk by 1% in six months, despite the twin benefits of a lower oil price and a weak euro..

Government finances, which appeared to be improving slightly last year, have now been dented by weaker economic activity and rising arrears on taxes.

Since the end of November 2014, Greek banks have lost about 14% of their deposit base to customer withdrawals and deposit outflows have continued.

The conditions have been made worse by the uncertainty over the negotiations between Athens and its main creditors – the IMF, the European Commission and the European Central Bank.

S&P said that economic prospects could deteriorate further unless Greece reached a deal over the next €7.2bn tranche of its bailout loan.

But time is running out.

Greek Report Card

Tentacles of Petrobras Scandal Grab Treasurer

The treasurer of Brazil’s ruling Workers’ Party, Joao Vaccari, has stepped down, after being arrested over corruption at oil giant Petrobras.

Mr Vaccari is  charged with an alleged scheme in which the party received dirty money from inflated deals between oil executives and construction firms.

Party president Rui Falcao said he still had confidence in Mr Vaccari.

He is the closest ally of President Dilma Rousseff to have been arrested in the broadening scandal.

The arrest places further pressure on the president, who has faced street protests, impeachment calls and plummeting opinion ratings since her re-election four months ago.

Ms Rousseff served as the head of Petrobras for much of the period when the corruption took place, but she has not been implicated in the scandal.

More than 40 politicians, including the heads of both houses of congress, are being investigated over the affair.

Prosecutors say Mr Vaccari served as the Workers’ Party’s liaison in a scheme where oil officials colluded with construction firms to artificially inflate billions of dollars worth of contracts.

According to oil officials who are testifying for the prosecution, some of the cash skimmed from the deals was diverted to the party and its allies.  The party remains sure of Mr Vaccari’s innocence, “not only because of his conduct, but because in a democratic state everyone has the fundamental right to be considered innocent until proven guilty”.

When he was first questioned in February Mr Vaccari said in a statement that the Workers’ Party only receives legal contributions and that he would co-operate with investigators.  He said he answered their questions “with transparency”.

Mr Vaccari was charged last month, becoming one of the most powerful political figures to have been named in the scandal.His arrest was reportedly ordered because of concerns that he may influence the investigation or flee the country.Corruption in Brazil

Ruble on the Rebound?

Jamila Trindle writes: The Russian ruble is rebounding, outpacing all other world currencies against the dollar this year. The 20 percent recovery this month alone stands in stark contrast to last year, when U.S. officials smugly pointed to Russia’s plummeting currency as proof that Western sanctions against Moscow for meddling in Ukraine were working.

That doesn’t mean the sanctions no longer have teeth. But it does add another complication to Western leaders’ already difficult task of trying to forge a lasting peace in Ukraine.

Some analysts have ascribed the ruble’s upward march to the tenuous cease-fire agreement reached between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists in February. Rising oil prices could be giving the ruble a boost, since the Russian government is dependent on money coming in from the country’s state energy giants. And yet another theory is that the ruble is not really strengthening, but just recovering to a reasonable level after plummeting too far last year.

The dramatic turnaround has prompted some investors to scramble to get back in. Bond investors, who had steered clear of Russia, are now returning in droves.

Some cautione against viewing the success of sanctions or Russia’s economy through only its currency.

While the appreciating ruble is welcome news for Russians who want to travel abroad and buy foreign goods, it may not be the sign of brighter days quite yet for the overall economy.

While oil prices have recovered somewhat, they’re still far away from the $100 a barrel that the Russian government budgeted for last year, or even the $70 a barrel Siluanov said they were hoping for this year. Russian oil sells at a slight discount to Brent crude, which traded around $58 a barrell.

European leaders struggle to hold together the fragile consensus on sanctions against Moscow, the ruble surge is giving some parts of the Russian economy a shot in the arm. Companies that borrowed in dollars, for instance, are likely breathing a sigh of relief, as their debts deflated a little bit as the ruble strengthened.

But whether or not it continues, the currency rally is unlikely to be enough to save the Russian economy, or Putin, from another round of sanctions.

Rouble

Meaning of China’s Slowing Growth?

The growth rate in China was lower than the 7.3% posted for the three months to December.  Last year, China’s economy, which is the world’s second largest, grew at its slowest pace since 1990.

It expanded by 7.4% in 2014, missing its annual growth target of 7.5% for the first time in 15 years.  Despite the slowdown, the Chinese economy was still one of the world’s fastest-growing and analysts have said it was proving to be more resilient than expected.

However, they have also said that slower growth, together with the country’s cooling property market – a key economic driver – was likely to mean further easing by China’s central bank this year, including further rate cuts among other measures.

In February the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cut interest rates for the second time since last November.  Interest rate cuts together with injections of liquidity are some of the tools Beijing uses to fine tune its economic growth.

The latest growth numbers were by no means a hard landing – which some had feared – and were in line with the latest government target, analysts said.  “Still, it represents a slowdown from the previous read of 7.3%,” Nicholas Teo from CMC Markets said.  “And is one of the weakest numbers reported in quite a few years.”

In the first three months of 2009, amid the financial crisis, China’s economy expanded 6.6% from a year earlier.

China also released industrial production (IP) figures on Wednesday which fell to 5.9% month-on-month in March, down from forecasts for an expansion of 6.9% and the lowest since 2008.

Analysts said these figures were more glaring than the growth data. Mr Teo described the latest IP numbers as “unfavourable”.

“Together with the slower trade numbers reported earlier this week, the industrial production number may just set the tone for a quickening pace with regards further easing measures,” he said.

Evan Lucas from IG Markets said the IP numbers highlighted “the real issue facing China” as exports declined “and falls in work done were being felt across the board”.

Markets were lacklustre following the numbers.

China's Economy?

EU’s Competition Commissioner Anti-Trusting Google.

The European Union’s competition commissioner, Margrethe Vestager has filed a complaint against Google that alleged the company violated anti-trust laws. The complaint stated that the company’s promotion of its own shopping links amounted to an abuse of its search dominance. (Google accounts for 90 percent of web searches in the EU.) The company has 10 weeks to respond.

The complaint follows a years-long investigation into Google’s practices. Since 2010, a number of companies, including Microsoft, Tripadvisor, and Streetmap, have leveled anti-trust allegations.

Google rejected the claim that it had acted inappropriately. “While Google may be the most used search engine, people can now find and access information in numerous different ways,” wrote its search chief Amit Singhal. “[A]llegations of harm, for consumers and competitors, have proved to be wide of the mark.”

The legal process could carry on for years and ultimately lead to billions of euros in fines.

Isn’t the point of proviing a useful free service to leverage it into exposure for your other profitable services?

Google?

Woman CFO to Google for $70 million

Another run from Wall Street finalized with negotiations reached. Google Inc. has agreed to pay Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat more than $70 million after she begins in May, ranking her among the highest paid CFOs in the business.

Porat who will be resigning from her position as the CFO of Morgan Stanley will receive a signing bonus of $5 million along with a $25 million stock grant this year that will continue through 2017 says Google, after as of a regulatory filing on Thursday. In addition, the CFO is entitled to a $40 million biennial stock grant in 2016 and a salary base of $650,000 annually.

Patrick Pichette, current Google Inc. CFO announced he would step down this month. Porat is expected to leave Morgan Stanley sometimes in April and replace Pichette the following month on May 26th. Google said it would pay Pichette pro-rated outstanding equity grants that were set to vest in 2016 and 2018 to ensure “that he continues performing in the role until such time as Google determines that there has been a smooth transition to the new CFO” said a spokesperson for the company.

Porat was paid $40.3 million after her first four years serving as chief Financial Officer of Morgan Stanley. Her total pay for last year has not yet been disclosed. The powerful female CFO owned 920,000 Morgan Stanley shares amounting to $32.7 million as indicated by regulatory filling.

As Porat joins the great Wall Street migration to Silicon Valley, she will undertake the rivalry against Google’s competitors like Apple, Inc. and Facebook Inc. With over 25 years at Morgan Stanley, Porat should bring better fiscal discipline to the company so; Google can cut costs in order to invest in new businesses.

Other ex-wall street executives have enjoyed the same pay raise on the west coast. Anthony Noto, Twitter Inc. CFO received a one-time stock award of 1.5 million restricted shares vesting over four years amounting to nearly $65 million last July.  He served previously as a top banker at Goldman Sachs and the CFO of the National Football League.

The rush to the west is in part due to the lure of an overwhelming number of start-ups turning into gold mines practically overnight. Years of financial insecurity on Wall Street has redirected young college graduates to more promising avenues in “the golden state”. Robert Reffkin, who left Goldman Sachs in 2012 after 7 years to create his own real estate star-up Compass said, “Smart people go to where they feel there is the most growth.”

In a statement released last Tuesday, after Porat’s appointment was announced, Google Chief Executive Officer Larry Page said “We’re tremendously fortunate to have found such a creative, experienced and operationally strong executive.”

Ruth Porat

Chile Cleans Up Its Act

Alicia Chevy writes: As one of the most competitive economies and financial market in the region and worldwide, Chile projected itself as a strategic destination for foreign investments over the past two decades. Emerging from the disastrous Pinochet dictatorship in 1990, the Andean country established strict political and legislative safeguards to lower corruption levels and protect judicial processes, democratic values, and investments.

The new government’s efforts successfully created strong confidence in the new political system, improving transparency and corruption indexes, and solid financial and legal institutions. From these reforms, high inflows of FDI followed and Chile became the world’s 11th largest recipient of FDI in 2012.

Thus, over the past 10 years, it became clear that Chile had the potential to become a powerful player in the region, as its GDP grew at an average annual rate of 4.6% from 2005 to 2012.

Influential institutions like the World Economic Forum recognized Chile as one of the top countries with the best macroeconomic environment.  Investors have benefited from Chile’s strongly legislated guarantees, such as protection on copyrights, and from its strategic trade agreements with 59 countries, including Free Trade Agreements.

With no restrictions on capital flows, promotion of private investment incited by tax exemptions, and a flat tariff of 6% on imports from other countries, Chile became the Golden Boy of Latin America for investments.

While the country proved its resilience in facing international crisis, its flexibility to address domestic problems has been challenged over the past year. Corruption and finance-related scandals in the public sector erupted, shaking Chile’s image as a regional role model.

Incoming accusations involving influential politicians in illegal campaign financing were the cherry on top. The Chilean Miracle became a mirage.

Along with the political scandals and a harsh month of natural disasters, President Bachelet was sidetracked from implementing her reform agenda and addressing the economic slowdown.

As its main export is copper, Chile’s energy sector’s and economy’s health depends heavily upon commodities’ global development and the growth of its major consumer, China. Along with changing global energy policies, China’s demand for copper and commodities has slowed down, deeply affecting Chile.

Moreover, sharp declines in the price of copper weakened investments in the mining sector and GDP growth over the past two years. Economists have also accounted falling employment rates and limited monetary tools for driving the economy and currency value down.

Consequently, major manufacturing and mining companies have expressed their concerns regarding Chile’s current economic environment.

To tackle the recent political and economic crises, Bachelet’s administration proposed several reforms. For instance, tougher regulations on government and public sector officials aim to reduce pervasive corruption in the public sector and help the president regain her popularity.

Overall, Bachelet and her administration have sought to reassure investors in health, energy and other major sectors in recent months. Energy Minister Maximo Pacheco devised a plan to boost energy investment and stopping the nefarious impact that drastic change in copper prices have on the economy.

Through early signs of economic recovery in January, Chile showed its aptitude in facing challenging domestic and international conditions.

Chile’s reputation as an ideal business destination and its institutional strengths remain largely spotless.

Despite the recent corruption scandals and financial problems, Chile remains an attractive investment destination.

The Appeal of Chile

Reform in Italy?

Walter Russell Mead writes:  Italy has made some progress on spending cuts, but reform seems to be slowing down at just the point when real gains could be locked in. The FT reports on Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s announcement that the country will see spending cuts of €10 billion next year. That number, however, still leaves the country €6 billion behind the target savings the government was originally aiming at. Future savings gained by making the Italian government more efficient are promised, but the FT reports that some are skeptical these savings will materialize.

There’s a reason why many advanced governments today have trouble meeting budget cut targets. At the end of the day, the cuts that would be least painful for Italian society would be unbearably painful for special interests that are well-entrenched in the political system. Making government procurement more effective, with less room for waste and corruption, for example, wouldn’t harm any of those who depend on government services — but it would reduce the profits of the well-connected crony capitalists and the local politicians who are hand in glove with them.

Similarly, reducing bloated staffing, rationalizing government administration, and otherwise making government more transparent and effective would enable taxpayers to enjoy the same level of services with less debt and taxes. A clear gain, you would think, but politics (and not just in Italy) has a hard time delivering this kind of result.

In the U.S. as well as in Italy, many of our debt and spending problems don’t come from the ‘greed’ of those who receive government services. They come from government ineptitude and from those who profit from bloated and irrational delivery systems. From our defense procurement system to infrastructure to the health care system to higher ed, our country—like many of the other advanced industrial democracies—suffers from the high costs of a badly-run state.

The left characteristically attacks all forms of spending discipline as a cold-hearted assault on the poor even while it continues to serve the special interests in the governance machine. For its part, the right howls rhetorically about the evils of spending, but is also unwilling to go after deep-pocketed special interests who profit from government inefficiency (think, for example, of state politicians everywhere who suck up to crony capitalist highway construction firms, or presidential candidates bowing to the Iowa ethanol lobby).

The left—in Italy as in the U.S.—needs to learn that budget discipline properly done helps the poor rather than hurts them. The right needs to learn the importance of governing well so as to govern less intrusively and less expensively. There is an agenda here that could electrify voters and put us on the road to better societies with less debt. Let’s hope that a new generation of real reformers will come along to give us the government we need at a price we can pay.

Italian Reform?

Joining the AIIB?

Will Kickey writes: March 31 marked the deadline for charter founders to line up for the new China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, 亚洲基础设施投资银行, or AIIB initiative. At the last moment Norway, Taiwan and others rushed to find the good graces of the Chinese opportunity. Many countries seek Asian influence, and Washington has been miffed by Chinese rejection of its traditional actors – the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank. The US and Japan, initially cool but now perhaps contemplating some eventual partnership, will remain on the sidelines.

A Chinese proverb says “they sleep in the same bed but dream different dreams.” The AIIB founding members are a diverse group with a range of investment agendas:
South Korea, marginalized in the Asian Development Bank, and despite US misgivings, expects to take a stake of upwards of 5 percent in the AIIB. With it heavy equipment industry, Hyundai, Doosan and infrastructure prowess in everything from roads to ports to bridges with GS, Hanwha and POSCO, South Korea will not play second-place against Japanese industry.

Australia, another country the US had leaned heavily on not to join, counts China among its main export markets for coal, copper and iron ore through its mining giants BHP, Rio Tinto and Leighton – creating the industrial might for major infrastructure projects.
The United Kingdom, the first major EU country to clamor for AIIB membership, mystified Washington by keeping it out of the loop during secret negotiations. While the UK’s major interests in accomodating China are unclear, it undoubtedly hopes to regain Asian outcome could prove controversial: a technological marvel, but wracked  with social and environmental concerns.    Joining the AIIB

AIIB