To Grexit or Not?

Nikos Chrysoloras and Eleni Chrepa write:  Running out of options to keep his country afloat, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras ordered local governments to move their funds to the central bank.

With negotiations over bailout aid deadlocked, Tsipras needs the cash for salaries, pensions and a repayment to the International Monetary Fund. Greek bonds fell after the move, pushing three-year yields to the highest since the nation’s debt restructuring in 2012. The order was questioned by local officials and slammed by the leading opposition party.

The decree to confiscate reserves now held in commercial banks and transfer them to the central bank could raise about 2 billion euros ($2.15 billion), according to two people familiar with the decision. The move, reminiscent of step that cash-strapped Argentina has taken over the past decade, shows how time is running out for Tsipras, a point made by European officials who addressed the matter at IMF meetings in Washington in recent days.

A default on the country’s 313 billion euros of obligations and a euro exit would be traumatic for the currency area and plunge Greece into a major crisis.

The new funds may be just enough for salaries and a 770 million-euro payment to the IMF due on May 12, the people said.

The move is a sign of the “dire liquidity situation for the Greek financial system as the government pools all liquidity available,” said Gianluca Ziglio, executive director of fixed-income research at Sunrise Brokers LLP in London. The “next step may be forcing all public-sector entities, including public-sector companies to do the same,” he said.

Greece and its creditors remained at loggerheads with time running out. The sides haven’t even set 2015 budget targets, let alone policies to meet them, an official representing creditors said Monday, asking not to be named as talks aren’t public.

European leaders want Greece to do more to revamp its debt-burdened economy, with progress to be reviewed on April 24 in Riga, Latvia, when finance ministers from the currency bloc meet. European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said in an interview in Washington that creditors might need to wait until mid-May to see what

“The situation with Greece needs to be resolved soon,” Cypriot Finance Minister Harris Georgiades said.

Greek officials, including Deputy Prime Minister Yannis Dragasakis, remained defiant saying the government won’t betray its electoral promises and worsen the pain that came from previous austerity measures.

While “so-called” partners, including unidentified IMF officials, want to “blackmail” Greece into adopting measures that would hurt the working class, “we won’t betray the people’s mandate,” Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis said, according to an interview published in Athens-based Real News newspaper.

Greece?

Is Germany’s Current-account Surplus Good?

Stefan RiecherBirgit Jennen writes:  The leaders of Germany’s economy fired back at U.S. criticism of their swelling current-account surplus, arguing it reflects the strength of their companies and the weakness of the euro rather than a lack of domestic demand.

“It would be absurd to discuss whether German competitiveness should be reduced to narrow the current-account surplus,” Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in Washington on Friday.

There has been a drumbeat of complaints this month from the U.S. that the surplus, now topping 7 percent of gross domestic product, is a fault line in the global economy and that Chancellor Angela Merkel needs to pare it by stimulating demand at home. Both the U.S. Treasury Department and former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke have made that case, implying criticism of Germany’s bias towards tight fiscal policy.

“Stronger demand growth in Germany is absolutely essential, as it has been persistently weak,” the U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said in the department’s semiannual report on foreign-exchange policies, which it published last week.

Bernanke used his recently begun blog to say “in a slow-growing world that is short aggregate demand, Germany’s trade surplus is a problem.” He advised Merkel’s government to act to raise infrastructure spending and wages.

“The fact that Germany is selling so much more than it is buying redirects demand from its neighbors (as well as from other countries around the world), reducing output and employment outside Germany at a time at which monetary policy in many countries is reaching its limits,” Bernanke said.

Also speaking in Washington, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble blamed the surplus on exchange rates as a declining euro makes products from companies such as carmaker Volkswagen AG cheaper in the international marketplace.

“When I have to defend the surplus, which I do sometimes these days, I point out that the exchange rate contributes to the surplus,” Schaeuble said.

Weidmann said “the depreciation of the euro of course plays a role because German products have become cheaper abroad as a consequence.”

US Looks at Europe

700 Illegal Immigrants Dead in Transit

Foreign Policy reports:  Some 700 people are feared dead after a boat carrying up to 950 migrants bound for Europe capsized off the coast of Libya. The incident is the deadliest accident involving migrants from Africa to Europe yet. Only 28 people have been rescued and only 24 bodies have been recovered. Witnesses say the capsizing may have occurred after hundreds on board all rushed to the same side on the ship to get a better view of a passing Portuguese vessel.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has asked has that European leaders discuss irregular migration at a meeting in Brussels. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherii saidi that Europe has a “moral duty” to solve the crisis. Pope Francis appealed to the international community “react decisively and quickly to see to it that such tragedies are not repeated.

Libya: A new video from Islamic State-affiliated militants in Libya claims to show the murder of 30 Ethiopian Christian migrants, 15 of whom were shot and 15 of whom were beheaded. The Ethiopian government has not confirmed not that its citizens were the victims. The video featured speeches and interviews with Islamic State members in Syria and Iraq suggesting, close cooperation between the jihadi group their and the Libyan affiliate.

We are trying to trace the money trail on illegal immigration, which often goes from drug dealers to underground contacts in the destination country.

Illegal Immigration

Elizabeth Warren Asks the Right Questions

Elizabeth Warren: Real accountability also requires big changes within our regulatory agencies. In 2013, the Fed and the OCC entered into a $9.3 billion settlement with more than a dozen mortgage servicers who had improperly foreclosed on thousands of homes across the country.[13] Congressman Cummings and I started asking some questions about this, and we stumbled onto a pretty amazing fact. The Fed’s Board of Governors – the ones who were nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate – didn’t even vote on whether to accept the settlement. A recordbreaking $9.3 billion on the table, and the settlement decision was left to the Fed’s staff. Elizabeth Warren on Financial Reform

Elizabeth Warren

Mellody Hudson: A Most Influential Woman

One of Time Magazine’s 100 Most Influentail People:

Former US Senator Bill Bradley writes:  I met Mellody Hobson when she was a senior in high school at a breakfast for Chicago business elite. Quite frankly, I don’t remember any of the Chicago business elite, but I did remember Mellody because she made such a deep impression.

Mellody is determined, disciplined and enormously curious. I’ve seen her abilities manifested in the boardroom at Starbucks, where we both serve. She’s always very direct. You do not have to wonder what Mellody’s opinion is. She also has a deep commitment to improving financial literacy among moderate and low-income Americans.

From her efforts as president of Ariel Investments to her work in my presidential campaign, Mellody exudes a cheerful confidence that makes people want to follow her. She has said her goals are to do well, surrounded by interesting people, and change the world for the better. Since she’s already doing those things now, just imagine what the next 30 years will bring.

Mellody Hudson

 

Mules and Smuggling

Metan Gurcan writes:  Mules are known for their tenacity and stamina. Now they have also become “accessories to crime” targeted by the Turkish army. For hundreds of years for the people living in the Turkey-Iraq border’s hard climate and rough terrain, mules have been the primary mode of moving cargo on the ancient trade routes. With the demarcation of the Turkey-Iraq border in 1926, this traditional cross-border trade was re-branded as cross-border smuggling and the mules were made accessories to the crime of smugglling.

Decadeslong socio-economic dynamics clashed with political dynamics recently in disturbing events on the Turkey-Iraq border. Kurdish-origin villagers living there said that near the village of Ortasu, not far from Uludere (also known as Roboski) Turkish soliders killed eight mules.  At Uludere and nearby villages, people demonstrated for three days, but soldiers, armed with a court order, continued to shoot the mules.

Since the end of February there has been significant growth in smuggling on the Turkey-Iraq border.. It has become massive and organized, using mule trains of 200 to 300. To keep psychological pressure on security forces serving the area, the PKK makes good use of smuggling operations and constantly provokes villagers against soldiers. There are also allegations that guns are sometimes smuggled to terrorists strapped under bellies of mules.

The Turkish security sources point to visibly improved living conditions of the villagers along the border as evidence of their allegations. They said that in front of every village tenement there are two or three cars, at least one a luxury model. According to the sources, mules have been shot when clashes broke out after smugglers reacted to the soldiers’ order to halt by opening fire.

HDP Deputy Chairman Aydan Bilgen said the issue is not only about mules. “Borders have become an obstruction to peoples’ interests.”

The solution is simple. The state can legalize this trade, now classified as cross-border smuggling. Local people always point to the existence of a legal crossing point at Habur, which is about 300 kilometers (186 miles) away i Customs officials and security officials posted there can then regulate the cross-border trade and collect taxes. He said, “If the state wants it, this can be done in one day.”

According to a retired military officer who has served in border units and become an expert on smuggling, the people running mules are laborers who make little money. The real profit-makers are the middlemen.

Border operations require a bit of diplomatic soldiering,” adding that no matter what the soldiers do, they won’t be able to stop smuggling. To the contrary, the tougher the soldiers are, the worse their relations with the people of the area will be. The state must target the smuggling barons at the top. He warned, “The state should not tamper with the bread of the people living here. In these parts, people die for two causes: The first is honor and the second is his bread.”

Mules and Smuggling

 

Upheaval in US Power Business

Hawaii is at the forefront of a global upheaval in the power business. Rooftop systems now sit atop roughly 12 percent of Hawaii’s homes, according to the federal Energy Information Administration, by far the highest proportion in the nation.

Other states and countries, including California, Arizona, Japan and Germany, are struggling to adapt to the growing popularity of making electricity at home, which puts new pressures on old infrastructure like circuits and power lines and cuts into electric company revenue.

As a result, many utilities are trying desperately to stem the rise of solar, either by reducing incentives, adding steep fees or effectively pushing home solar companies out of the market. In response, those solar companies are fighting back through regulators, lawmakers and the courts.

The shift in the electric business is no less profound than those that upended the telecommunications and cable industries in recent decades. It is already remaking the relationship between power companies and the public while raising questions about how to pay for maintaining and operating the nation’s grid.

In solar-rich areas of California and Arizona, as well as in Hawaii, all that solar-generated electricity flowing out of houses and into a power grid designed to carry it in the other direction has caused unanticipated voltage fluctuations that can overload circuits, burn lines and lead to brownouts or blackouts.

The economic threat also has electric companies on edge. Over all, demand for electricity is softening while home solar is rapidly spreading across the country. There are now about 600,000 installed systems, and the number is expected to reach 3.3 million by 2020, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association.

The Edison Electric Institute, the main utility trade group, has been warning its members of the economic perils of high levels of rooftop solar since at least 2012.

In Hawaii, the current battle began in 2013, when Hawaiian Electric started barring installations of residential solar systems in certain areas.  The utility wants to cut roughly in half the amount it pays customers for solar electricity they send back to the grid. But after a study showed that with some upgrades the system could handle much more solar than the company had assumed, the state’s public utilities commission ordered the utility to begin installations or prove why it could not.

It was but one sign of the agency’s growing impatience with what it considers the utility’s failure to adapt its business model to the changing market.

Hawaiian Electric is scrambling to accede to that demand, approving thousands of applications in recent weeks. But it is under pressure on other fronts as well. NextEra Energy, based in Florida, is awaiting approval to buy it, while other islands it serves are exploring defecting to form their own cooperative power companies.

It is also upgrading its circuits and meters to better regulate the flow of electricity. Rooftop solar makes far more power than any other single source, said Colton Ching, vice president for energy delivery at Hawaiian Electric, but the utility can neither control nor predict the output.

For customers, such explanations offer little comfort as they continue to pay among the highest electric rates in the country and still face an uncertain solar future.

Installers — who saw their fast-growing businesses slow to a trickle — are also frustrated with the pace. For those who can afford it, said James Whitcomb, chief executive of Haleakala Solar, which he started in 1977, the answer may lie in a more radical solution: Avoid the utility and its grid altogether.

Customers are increasingly asking about the batteries that he often puts in along with the solar panels, allowing them to store the power they generate during the day for use at night. It is more expensive, but it breaks consumer reliance on the utility’s network of power lines.

Solar Power

Drilling Oil and Climate Change

Jeffrey D. Sachs writes: ExxonMobil’s current business strategy is a danger to its shareholders and the world. We were reminded of this once again in a report of the National Petroleum Council’s Arctic Committee, chaired by ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson. The report calls on the US government to proceed with Arctic drilling for oil and gas – without mentioning the consequences for climate change.

While other oil companies are starting to speak straightforwardly about climate change, ExxonMobil’s business model continues to deny reality.

The year 2014 was the hottest on instrument record, a grim reminder of the planetary stakes of this year’s global climate negotiations, which will culminate in Paris in December. The world’s governments have agreed to keep human-induced warming to below 2º Celsius (3.6º Fahrenheit).

Many of the world’s biggest oil firms are beginning to acknowledge this truth. Companies like Total, ENI, Statoil, and Shell are advocating for a carbon price (such as a tax or permit system) to hasten the transition to low-carbon energy and are beginning to prepare internally for it. Shell has stepped up its investments in carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology, to test whether fossil-fuel use can be made safe by capturing the CO2 that would otherwise go into the atmosphere.
Exxon’s management, blinded by its own vast political power, behaves with a willful disregard for changing global realities. It lives in a cocoon of Washington lobbyists and political advisers who have convinced the company’s leaders that because the US Senate is currently in Republican hands, the business risks of climate change have somehow been nullified, and that the world will not change without or despite them.

At the same time, ExxonMobil is not some marginal actor in the planetary drama. It is one of the central protagonists.  So what does ExxonMobil say about the new climate realities? How does it reconcile its corporate policies with planetary needs?  Unfortunately, the company basically ducks the issue.

The development of the Arctic’s oil and gas resources would contribute to warming far above the 2º limit. The Arctic itself is warming far faster than the planetary average, potentially causing massive, global-scale climate disruptions – which may include the extreme weather patterns recently observed in the US mid-latitudes.

For these reasons, the best recent science, including an important study published in Nature this year, provides a clear and unequivocal message: Keep the Arctic oil in the ground and beneath the deep seas; there is no safe place in the climate system for it.”

ExxonMobil’s brazenness should be deeply troubling for its shareholders. The company’s management is planning to spend vast sums – perhaps tens of billions of dollars – to develop Arctic oil and gas reserves that cannot safely be used. Just as the global shift toward renewable energy has already contributed to a massive drop in oil prices, climate policies that will be adopted in future years will render new Arctic drilling a huge waste of resources.

Pension funds, universities, insurance pools, and sovereign wealth funds worldwide are grappling with the increasing risks, both moral and financial, of owning shares in oil, gas, and coal companies. As Lisa Sachs and I recently explained, responsible investors must urgently query these companies about their business plans to comply with the 2º limit on warming.

Drilling for Oil in Alaska

Dealing with Debt Globally

Adair Turner and Susan Lund write: Greece’s divisive negotiations with the EU have placed debt back at the center of debates about economic growth and stability. But Greece is not the only country struggling to repay its existing debt, much less dampen borrowing. Its fraught negotiations with its creditors should spur other countries to take action to address their own debt overhangs.

Since the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, the world’s debt has risen by $57 trillion, exceeding GDP growth. Government debt has increased by $25 trillion, with the advanced economies accounting for $19 trillion – a direct result of severe recession, fiscal-stimulus programs, and bank bailouts.

Much of this debt accumulation was driven by efforts to support economic growth in the face of deflationary headwinds after the 2008 crisis. That was especially so in China, which, together with other developing economies, accounts for nearly half of the debt incurred since 2008.

To be sure, debt itself is not bad. But excessive reliance on debt creates the risk of financial crises, which undermine growth. Given this, the world needs to find both less credit-intensive routes to growth and ways to eliminate existing debt burdens.

To help limit future debt accumulation, countries have three options. First, they can employ countercyclical macroprudential measures to dampen credit cycles and prevent excessive borrowing. For example, stricter loan-to-value-ratio limits and higher capital requirements for banks could slow credit growth when housing or commercial real-estate markets are overheating. Yet precisely the opposite approach is now being taken in the United States, where some first-time homebuyers have now been given access to 97% loan-to-value mortgages.

A second strategy for curbing the buildup of debt could be to introduce mortgage contracts that enable more risk sharing between borrowers and lenders, essentially acting as debt/equity hybrids. As the Great Recession grimly illustrated, when a period of soaring real-estate valuations and rising household debt is followed by a period of falling prices, and households attempt to deleverage, the results can be catastrophic. The talent for financial innovation that produced harmful new home-mortgage options before the crash should now be harnessed to develop more flexible mortgages that help borrowers avoid default.

One example is “shared responsibility” mortgages, in which payments are reduced under certain circumstances, such as when home prices dip below the borrower’s purchase price. In exchange for this flexibility, the lender receives a share of any capital gain that is realized when the home is sold. Similarly, the continuous-workout mortgage adjusts payments and terms in specific cases, such as job loss.

A third option for limiting debt accumulation is to reconsider tax rules that favor debt. In many countries, interest accrued on a mortgage remains tax deductible. Though phasing out this policy is politically contentious, some countries – such as the United Kingdom in the 1980s – have managed to do so. Similarly, it would be difficult – but not impossible – to reduce the incentives, created by almost all countries’ tax regimes, for corporate leverage.

Governments must also work to reduce existing debt – and the deficient global demand to which it contributes. It is simply not feasible for the most highly leveraged governments to grow their way out of debt. Nor can austerity alone suffice, as it would require countries to make such large fiscal adjustments – 5% of GDP, in Spain’s case – that citizens would likely resist them, as the Greeks have done.

A more effective approach would employ a broader range of tools, including debt restructuring. In some countries, sales of public assets and the levying of one-off wealth taxes would also be helpful.

The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan now own 16%, 24%, and 22%, respectively, of all bonds outstanding.

Given that central banks are owned by the government, and that interest paid on outstanding bonds is remitted back to the national treasury, these government bonds are fundamentally different from those owned by other creditors. Focusing on “net” government debt (which excludes intra-government debt holdings, such as the bonds owned by central banks) is a more effective approach to assessing and ensuring the sustainability of public debt.

The global economic crisis laid bare the challenge of debt reduction – and the risks that excessive indebtedness raises. Yet the crisis also intensified government and household dependence on leverage, causing debt levels to continue to rise – a trend that, left unchecked, will lead to more crises in the future.

 Global Debt

Putin Makes Nice to US

Russia has key interests in common with the United States and needs to work with it on a common agenda, Russian President Vladimir Putin said  in a television interview.

In his comments to the state-run Rossiya channel, Putin appeared to soften his anti-American rhetoric after being highly critical. Relations between Moscow and Washington and other Western powers have soured over the conflict in Russia’s neighbor Ukraine, sinking to an all-time low.

“We have disagreements on several issues on the international agenda. But at the same time there is something that unites us, that forces us to work together,” Putin said.

“I mean general efforts directed at making the world economy more democratic, measured and balanced, so that the world order is more democratic. We have a common agenda.”

Putin has in the past fiercely attacked the United States and the West in general, blaming them for the Ukraine crisis, which Russia says was the result of a Western-backed “coup” against Ukraine’s former leader Viktor Yanukovich.

Russia has repeatedly denied accusations from Kiev and the West that it is supporting pro-Russian rebels with troops and weapons in eastern Ukraine, where more than 6,000 people have been killed since last April.

Both Russia and the West say they back a peace deal agreed in Minsk in February, as a result of which a ceasefire in the Donbass region is largely holding.

Putin