How to Address Currency Manipulation?

Kemal Davis writes: It is impossible to deny that trade and exchange rates are closely linked. But does that mean that international trade agreements should include provisions governing national policies that affect currency values?

Some economists certainly think so. Simon Johnson, for example, recently argued that mega-regional agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership should be used to discourage countries from intervening in the currency market to prevent exchange-rate appreciation;

As it stands, the relevant international institutions — the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund — are not organized to respond effectively to possible currency manipulation on their own. Incorporating macroeconomic policies affecting exchange rates into trade negotiations would require either that the WTO acquire the technical capacity (and mandate) to analyze and adjudicate relevant national policies or that the IMF join the dispute-settlement mechanisms that accompany trade treaties.

The most direct method is purchases of foreign assets. But, in a world of large short-term capital flows, central-banks’ policy interest rates – or even just announcements about likely future rates — also have a major impact. Moreover, quantitative easing affects exchange rates and trade, even if central banks purchase only domestic assets, as demonstrated by recent movements in the exchange rates of the dollar, the euro, and the yen.

Consider the problem that would be posed by the eurozone.  Most eurozone countries have lately been forced to tighten fiscal policy, thereby reducing or eliminating their current-account deficits.  As a result, the total eurozone trade surplus is now massive. Because individual eurozone members have no monetary-policy tools at their disposal, the only way that Germany can reduce its surplus while remaining in the eurozone is to conduct expansionary fiscal policy. The economist Stefan Kawalec has explicitly referred to the current policy mix in the eurozone as “currency manipulation.”

None of this means that macroeconomic policies that affect exchange rates are not problematic. They are. But trade negotiations are not the right forum for discussing the causes and consequences of current-account imbalances.

A better approach would include strengthening the IMF’s multilateral surveillance role. Doing so would broaden discussions of macroeconomic policy to include employment issues — specifically, the potential impact of large foreign-trade surpluses on domestic jobs. And it would give trade negotiations a chance to succeed.

Currencies

Ten Sustainable Companies for Earth Day

Andrew Winston writes in the Harvard Business Review:   The NGO Ceres has gotten an impressive array of companies to sign onto the Climate Declaration, which states that climate change is both a threat and a major economic opportunity. But this year, a smaller Ceres group, BICEP, which is calling for more aggressive policies like a tax on carbon, added some very mainstream companies such as General Mills, Kellogg’s, and Nestle (perhaps not coincidentally, General Mills announced early this year that its earnings were reduced by extreme weather).

In the wonky, trendy vocabulary of working together, “collaboration” isn’t exciting enough without the now-hot modifier of “pre-competitive” (meaning: stuff fierce rivals can do collectively that doesn’t diminish their ability to compete). Walmart and Target demonstrated how this works by convening a Personal Care Products Sustainability Summit. All the major players in the personal care product value chain — the giants of consumer products, chemicals, and fragrances — were there (as was I). The general topic was how this group could reduce the physical and chemical impacts of all those gels and liquids we use on our bodies, and the group will continue to work together and convene to tackle thorny issues in the value chain.  Sustainability

Sustainability

Can Policy Change on High Speed Trading?

Everett Rosenfeld writes:  A UK trader is charged for manipulation contributing to 2010 flash crash.

A high-frequency futures trader has been charged with illegally manipulating the stock market, contributing to the May 2010 “flash crash,” according to documents unsealed Tuesday.

The US Justice Department charged the United Kingdom’s Navinder Singh Sarao with wire fraud, 10 counts of commodities fraud, 10 counts of commodities manipulation and one count of spoofing (which is when a trader places a bid or offer with the intent to cancel before execution).

Sarao was arrested Tuesday in the U.K., and the U.S. is requesting his extradition, the DOJ said. The charges were filed in a federal complaint in February, but were unsealed Tuesday following the arrest.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also filed parallel civil charges against Sarao on Tuesday, calling him a “very significant player in the market.”

The CFTC alleged that Sarao was believed to have profited by about $40 million for his scheme. U.S. authorities have frozen nearly $7 million worth of his assets and accounts, Aitan Goelman, CFTC director of enforcement.

 

Spoofing

Illegal Wildlife Traffic on eBay?

Ted Williams writes:   Illegal trade in imperiled wildlife is rampant, and attempted controls are few and largely ineffective. Log on to most any international internet store that deals in wildlife or wildlife parts, and you’ll find a charnel house of endangered and protected species hawked openly or under phony names and in violation of US law and international agreements.

The world’s largest online marketplace by far, eBay, is one of the few that makes a serious effort to control wildlife smuggling by deleting ads for illegal products — but only the few it notices or hears about. Chris Nagano of the US Fish and Wildlife Service’s Endangered Species Division is a trained lepidopterist. When I asked him if he sees any ads for illegal butterflies on eBay he replied: “There are a number of imperiled butterflies openly advertised on eBay, including some listed under the Endangered Species Act or protected under laws of countries they inhabit. Some of these species are sold to collectors for hundreds or even thousands of dollars.”

Ivory products are the most popular wildlife items on internet markets, despite a global ban on ivory sales imposed by the 180-nation Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES). The National Academy of Sciences, a body of scholars established by the US Congress, estimates that 100,000 elephants were killed by poachers between 2010 and 2012, mostly to sate ivory demand of China’s newly-moneyed middle class. At that unsustainable rate elephants are likely to be extinct in the wild within two decades.  Illegal eBay Wildlife Sales

Illegal Butterfly Sales

EU Takes on Gazprom?

Keith Johnson writes:  European Union competition officials will likely throw the book at Russian energy giant Gazprom on Wednesday, flexing Brussels’s strongest muscle and potentially reshaping an energy sector that has worked largely to Moscow’s advantage since the 1970s.

EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager is expected to charge Gazprom with a bevy of anti-competitive practices, including denying pipeline access to other energy suppliers and charging discriminatory prices to certain customers.

This threatens to further ratchet up tensions between Brussels and Moscow that have been severely strained over the Ukraine crisis.

The EU case takes aim at three pillars of Gazprom’s longtime business model in the European market, the Russian firm’s biggest outlet for natural gas. At issue are Russian restrictions on the free flow of gas between European countries; limits on third-party access to gas pipelines; and the linkage of gas prices to crude oil prices, which EU officials argue has led to discriminatory pricing. All three practices under investigation potentially undermine Europe’s energy security. If they can be resolved either through negotiations with Gazprom or in the courts, it would help create a genuinely unified European energy market better able to withstand supply shocks.  EU Tightens Screws on Gazprom

Gazprom?

 

Renzi: End Slave Driving and Set up Immigration Centers in Africa

Dan Bilefsky writes: Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of Italy has issued a plea for collective action, and he alluded to a call for the creation of centers in Africa that would process asylum applications in a bid to spare many the perilous sea crossing to Europe.

Italy has become the main target of a wave of migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea on often unseaworthy vessels such as the ship that capsized off the coast of Libya over the weekend, killing as many as 900 people.

Mr. Renzi called for the European Union to have a more coordinated strategy, including expanding search-and-rescue patrols and taking action against smugglers in Libya and elsewhere, whom he referred to as “21st-century slave drivers.”

He also evoked an idea that has previously circulated in Brussels: the establishment of migration centers in African countries, in cooperation with the United Nations, so that would-be migrants could apply for asylum in the European Union from their home countries rather than set off on potentially deadly journeys in search of refuge in Europe.On Thursday, European leaders are expected to discuss proposals to double the size of search-and-rescue operations in the Mediterranean; increase the budget for Frontex, the European Union’s border agency; improve cooperation between the police across the bloc; and intensify the battle against smugglers and human traffickers.

European Union officials said on Wednesday that the current budget for the bloc’s border protection operation, known as Triton, was about 3 million euros, or $3.2 million, a month, and that the operation’s resources included two aircraft, two helicopters, six coastal patrol vessels and about 65 officers. Even doubling that would probably not be enough to deal with the scale of the migration crisis, analysts said.

The number of people who have died in the Mediterranean Sea this year is thought to have already reached 1,727 migrants, according to the International Organization for Migration — more than 30 times last year’s death toll.

However, efforts to forge a common and robust European approach to immigration have faced several challenges in recent years, including weak political will at a time when budgets are stretched and far-right parties that have gained in popularity across the Continent by tapping into resentment against immigrants.

The efforts to forge a new European strategy on immigration have also been stymied by the fact that migration policy in the 28-member union is mostly the preserve of national governments rather than Brussels.

QE and the Fate of the Yen

Walter Kurtz writes:  At the end of last October the Bank of Japan annnounced a large stimulus increase which was followed by a sharp decline in the yen. In 2015, however, even though the extraordinary monthly securities purchases are continuing, the declines have stopped as USD/JPY remains range-bound.

In the long run however, further yen weakness seems inevitable. The reason has to do with the sheer relative size of Japan’s quantitative easing. Based on the latest projections, the BoJ’s balance sheet will be above 90% of Japan’s GDP within a year or so. This dwarfs other major central banks’ monetary expansion efforts, including that of the ECB. Furthermore, given the scope and size of this program, it is unclear if the Bank of Japan can ever effectively exit it without a massive disruption to the nation’s economy. While we could see the yen strengthen briefly in the near-term, the currency will remain under pressure for some time to come.

The Yen

Repaying the Greek Debt in Drachmas

George Friedman writes: The Greek crisis is moving toward a climax. The issue is actually quite simple. The Greek government owes a great deal of money to European institutions and the International Monetary Fund. It has accumulated this debt over time, but it has become increasingly difficult for Greece to meet its payments. If Greece doesn’t meet these payments, the IMF and European institutions have said they will not extend any more loans to Greece. Greece must make a calculation. If it pays the loans on time and receives additional funding, will it be better off than not paying the loans and being cut off from more?

A strategy inspired by Budapest would have the Greeks print drachmas and announce (not offer) that the debt would be repaid in that currency. The euro could still circulate in Greece and be legal tender, but the government would pay its debts in drachmas.

In considering this and other scenarios, the pervading question is whether Greece leaves or stays in the eurozone. But before that, there are still two fundamental questions. First, in or out of the euro, how does Greece pay its debts currently without engendering social chaos? The second and far more important question is how does Greece revive its economy? Lurching from debt payment to debt payment, from German and IMF threats to German and IMF threats is amusing from a distance. It does not, however, address the real issue: Greece, and other countries, cannot exist as normal, coherent states under these circumstances, and in European history, long-term economic dysfunction tends to lead to political extremism and instability. The euro question may be interesting, but the deeper economic question is of profound importance to both the debtor and creditors.  Repaying the Greek Debt

The Triumph of the Drachma

Women Helping Women Make Peace in Colombia

Jacqueline O’Neill writes:  After 50-plus years, 222,000 deaths, $9 billion in U.S. aid, and 34 rounds of negotiations, one of the world’s longest civil wars might finally be nearing its end. The Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (known by its Spanish acronym, FARC) have agreed to terms for political participation, land reform, mine clearance, and stemming the cocaine trade.

The stakes are enormous. If this process is ineffective, as it’s been in so many countries, the risk is not just that men and women from the FARC will return to the mountains to take up arms. There’s also a high chance that disaffected or underemployed ex-combatants will be recruited by drug traffickers, who added thousands of demobilized paramilitaries to their ranks after the country’s last peace process.

But perhaps the most critical factor for the viability of the coming peace is the inclusion of women in the conversation.

.As a first step, implementers need an accurate picture of how many women are in the FARC, what roles they play, and how their experiences and needs differ from those of their male counterparts.  For over half a century of conflict, Colombian women have filled a wide variety of tactical, recruitment, support, and combat roles in the FARC.

Peace planners also frequently underestimate the extent and nature of women’s participation during conflict. At the end of Liberia’s second civil war in 2003 to 2004, for instance, the U.N. expected to disarm no more than 2,000 women, but ended up working with over 22,000 (missing an estimated 14,000 others).

This will require disseminating information in ways that explicitly target women, using language and imagery that reflects their reality.

Job-training programs to provide ex-combatants with economic alternatives to armed struggle will be essential. During the conflict, many women rose to leadership positions within the FARC. They’re unlikely to desire a return to previous social roles. Yet, globally, jobs envisioned for female ex-combatants are often stereotypically traditional.

The best way to ensure programs are designed in ways that meaningfully incorporate women is to interview former and current FARC members and hear directly from the women themselves. Starting now, the peace process must consult a diverse swath of Colombian women — making sure to include minority Afro-Colombians, for example.

In Colombia, as elsewhere, women in the community can help dictate whether returning fighters are welcomed or ostracized. They can also provide services through civilian groups; share resources like childcare, clothes, and food; and facilitate skills training and education for ex-combatants, which will ultimately ease fighters’ return to society.
Getting this right is critical for both sides at the negotiating table.

Woman warrior in Colombia

Tweaking the Chinese Economy?

In the Economist:  China’s premier is fond of saying that the government has plenty of tools in its toolbox to combat the economy’s slowdown. Rummaging through the kit, the central bank produced a big wrench on Sunday: a 1 percentage-point reduction in the amount of cash that lenders must lock up as reserves. It is the largest cut in Chinese banks’ required reserve ratio (RRR) since late 2008, the nadir of the global financial crisis. It frees up nearly 1.3 trillion yuan ($210 billion) for new lending, money that should help shore up growth. It is likely, however, to also pour fuel on an already-sizzling stockmarket.

Judging by economic data alone, the move comes as little surprise. Nominal growth in the first quarter slumped to 5.8% from a year earlier, the lowest since the first quarter of 2009. Factory production is weak, lending growth has slowed and deflation is beginning to rear its head. China launched its easing cycle last November (it has cut interest rates twice and RRR once since then), and Mr Li has pledged to do more to support growth if needed. Additional policy easing seemed a foregone conclusion after all the sluggish recent data.

But the timing of the cut is something of a surprise. Required reserves play little role in the monetary policies of developed economies. In China, however, they have formed a crucial component of the framework for keeping the yuan steady. In the past, when foreign cash streamed into China via its trade surplus and amid speculative inflows, the central bank printed billions of yuan every month to soak up the flood. That would normally have been expected to cause inflation, but the central bank counteracted the effect by forcing lenders to lock up a large portion of the resulting cash as reserves. At its peak in 2011, China’s RRR reached 21.5%, a level with little precedent in other countries.

While China is still running a hefty trade surplus, speculative flows have become much more volatile. Cash enters the country some months and leaves it other months. With reduced inflows from abroad, the central bank no longer needs to intervene so heavily in the currency market. But it does need to come up with new ways of creating liquidity for the financial system. The most obvious is to normalise monetary policy by cutting RRR. Even with Sunday’s reduction, the ratio for the biggest banks sits at 18.5%—amounting to more than 20 trillion yuan worth of cash. Mr Li’s toolbox is far from empty.

Li Keqiang