Can Frackers Survive Low Oil Prices?

Justin Fox writes: Whenever anybody struck oil in the U.S. in the late 19th century, Standard Oil’s pipeline guys showed up within a few days and offered to hook the new well up to the network.

The Middle East emerged as the center of world oil production.  Oil-rich countries joined forces in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and began nationalizing their resources. After the Arab oil embargo of 1973, they imposed their own sort of order on the oil market.

This is what OPEC’s members are still trying to do, with Ali Al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s longtime minister of petroleum and mineral resources, doing his best to play the part of Rockefeller.  Al-Naimi and his counterparts from Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have made clear they are out to thwart an unruly new band of competitors who have helped send oil prices plummeting over the past six months.

These competitors are the frackers, American wildcatters who have been pumping huge quantities of oil and natural gas from ground.

Al-Naimi doesn’t, however, have all the tools at his disposal that Rockefeller did. He can’t send a bunch of Saudi Aramco toughs to Pennsylvania or Texas or North Dakota to threaten the wildcatters. He can’t really buy out the frackers, either. So what he and his closest Arab allies are doing instead is pumping more oil in an attempt to drive prices even lower — so low that the American frackers start losing money and shutting their wells.

With fracking, the break-even oil price is above $50 a barrell for almost every U.S. shale-oil project.

If OPEC succeeds in shutting down a lot of frackers, the Saudis and friends would then presumably cut production and return global oil markets to a state of order and higher prices. Of course, if the prices go high enough, fracking will recommence.  Big players might well buy in.  Al-Naimi would like a market dominated by a few big players.  It is just so much more civilized than a scrum of wildcatters.

It may even be that a more civilized, orderly oil market would be better for consumers of petroleum, too. When it comes to resource prices, predictability is good. Rockefeller’s OPEC successors have never really succeeded, though, in keeping prices steady enough to be predictable. Repeated discoveries outside of OPEC territory (the North Sea, the North Slope, and now the U.S. shale fields), and the inevitable ups and downs of the global economy have kept crude prices swinging from high to low and back since the early 1970s. Still, we can expect that Al-Naimi and his closest OPEC allies will keep striving for control. That’s just what oil magnates do.

OPEC and Fracking

Push EU and US Trade Agreement?

Carl Bildt and Javier Solana write:  Europe must capitalize on its significant significant strengths. It is a hub of high-level thought and innovation; it is home to some of the world’s most competitive regions and industries; and, perhaps most impressive, it has built a community and market encompassing a half-billion people.

But the world is changing: the Asia-Pacific region is increasingly influencing global developments, economic and otherwise. The Trans-Pacific Partnership – by which the United States and 11 other countries would create a mega-regional free-trade zone – would most likely accelerate this shift (all the more so if China eventually joins. Though the TPP faces no shortage of hurdles to clear before an agreement is finalized, its potential to augment Asia’s economic power cannot be underestimated.

Europe must work to secure its position in the new world order – beginning by enhancing its own trade and investment ties with the US.  Business leaders on both sides of the Atlantic are convinced that a successful Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement would bring substantial economic benefits – a perception that many studies reinforce. Yet trivial issues continue to dominate the debate.

The TTIP’s goal is to unleash the power of the transatlantic economy, which remains by far the world’s largest and wealthiest market.  If the TTIP was opened to other economies – such as Turkey, Mexico, and Canada – the benefits would be even greater.

There are the potentially catastrophic consequences of failure. For starters, a breakdown of TTIP talks would give considerable ammunition to those in the United Kingdom who advocate withdrawal from the EU.

Moreover, the perception that the EU’s internal squabbles had led it to squander a strategic opportunity would probably drive the US to accelerate its disengagement from the continent. And Russian President Vladimir Putin would invariably regard the EU’s failure as a major opportunity to exert more influence over parts of Europe.

All of this contributes to a starkly fundamental strategic risk: If the TTIP stalls or collapses, while the TPP moves forward and succeeds, the global balance will tip strongly in Asia’s favor – and Europe will have few options, if any, for regaining its economic and geopolitical influence.

When the TTIP was first proposed, Europe seemed to recognize its value and wanted to sign a deal quickly. But then EU leaders essentially abandoned the project, seemingly confirming American fears.

EU leaders must revive their commitment to conclude the talks successfully in 2015. This is not to say that resolving the remaining issues will be simple.  When the TTIP negotiations resume next month, EU leaders must push for genuine progress, with the goal of completing a deal by the end of the year.

EU and US Trade Agreement

Carbon Taxes?

The case for carbon taxes has long been compelling. With the recent steep fall in oil prices and associated declines in other energy prices, it has become overwhelming. There is room for debate about the size of the tax and about how the proceeds should be deployed. But there should be no doubt that, given the current zero tax rate on carbon, increased taxation would be desirable.

The core of the case for taxation is the recognition that those who use carbon-based fuels or products do not bear all the costs of their actions. Carbon emissions exacerbate global climate change. In many cases, they contribute to local pollution problems that harm human health. Getting fossil fuels out of the ground involves both accident risks and environmental challenges. And even with the substantial recent increases in U.S. oil production, we remain a net importer. Any increase in our consumption raises our dependence on Middle East producers.

All of us, when we drive our cars, heat our homes or use fossil fuels in more indirect ways, create these costs without paying for them. It follows that we overuse these fuels. Advocating a carbon tax is not some kind of argument for government planning; it is the logic of the market: That which is not paid for is overused. Even if the government had no need or use for revenue, it could make the economy function better by levying carbon taxes and rebating the money to taxpayers.

While the recent decline in energy prices is a good thing in that it has, on balance, raised the incomes of Americans, it has also exacerbated the problem of energy overuse.

Would a carbon tax place an unfair burden on some middle- and low-income consumers?  Those who drive long distances to work, say, or who have homes that are expensive to heat would be disproportionately burdened. Now that these consumers have received a windfall from the fall in energy prices, it would be possible to impose substantial carbon taxes without them being burdened relative to where things stood six months ago.

Could taxing fossil fuels will hurt the competitiveness of U.S. industry and encourage offshoring?   A well-designed tax would be levied on the carbon content of all imports coming from countries that did not impose their own carbon levies.

What size levy is appropriate? Here there is more danger of doing too little than too much. Once the principle of taxation is accepted, its level can be adjusted. A tax of $25 a ton would raise more than $100 billion each year and seems a reasonable starting point.

How should the proceeds be used? Perhaps the funds to be split between investments in infrastructure and pro-work tax credits. Progressives who are most concerned about climate change should rally to a carbon tax. Conservatives who believe in the power of markets should favor carbon taxes on market principles. And Americans who want to see their country lead on the energy and climate issues that are crucial to the world should want to be in the vanguard on carbon taxes.

Carbon Tax

French Fries Crisis in Japan?

McDonald’s Holdings Co (Japan) Ltd has embarked on the emergency measure of only offering small-sized french fries to customers as a protracted labor dispute at U.S. West Coast ports has contributed to long delays in imports.

The fast-food chain said it was importing more than 1,000 tonnes of frozen fries by air, which began arriving last Monday and had begun routing another 1,600 tonnes through ports on the U.S. East Coast which should begin arriving in late January.  Those steps alone, however, are not sufficient to prevent a shortage.

rToyama said the company, which has 3,100 stores in Japan, was not placing any limit on the number of small-sized fries a customer may buy but the resumption of medium-sized and large-sized fries remains unclear. She declined to comment on the impact on earnings.

The cargo backups at U.S. West Coast ports dragged on into a third month amid industry reports of prolonged shipment delays for goods ranging from yoga apparel and rice to NBA bobblehead collectibles and frozen french fries.

Cargo that normally takes two to three days to flow through the affected ports, accounting for nearly half of U.S. maritime trade and over 70 percent of imports from Asia, now faces lag times of up to two weeks, the National Retail Federation said.  The congestion has been most pronounced at the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the nation’s two busiest cargo hubs, where marine officials reported 11 ships anchored on Thursday waiting for berths to open.

The number of freighters kept waiting outside the two ports has fluctuated from about eight to 18 on any given day since the slowdown began there around mid-October, said port of Los Angeles spokesman Phillip Sanfield.  Smaller backups have hit other West Coast ports, including Seattle and Tacoma in Washington state.

The slowdowns have coincided with prolonged labor talks between 20,000 dockworkers and the Pacific Maritime Association, representing terminal operators and shipping lines at 29 West Coast ports. Their latest contract expired June 30.

Management has accused the International Longshore and Warehouse Union of orchestrating some slowdowns on the docks to bolster its leverage at the bargaining table.  Union officials deny organizing protest delays but acknowledge individual dockworkers may have acted out of frustration over the pace of contract talks.

Other factors cited are a shortage of tractor-trailer chassis used for hauling cargo containers from the ports, a situation created when shippers decided to sell off their chassis to equipment-leasing companies.

Union and port officials also cite record import levels at the peak cargo season, rail service delays and the advent of super-sized container vessels delivering greater cargo volumes.

Smiles Are Free, Fries are in Short Supply

How Rice Gets to the Table in Japan

As Japan began reconstruction after the end of World War II, the paramount issue was to feed a nation of hungry people. Infrastructure was ruined and farmland abandoned. Agricultural reforms compelled landlords to sell off their large land holdings to the tenant farmers who worked those lands. Newly-incentivized farmers quickly brought the agricultural sector back into production.

Japan has been doing all right for itself. In terms of total volume of food produced, it is number five in the world. It’s a nation obsessed with food self-sufficiency and food security.

With the distorting forces of the global economy, a graying of the population who till the land, a huge agricultural cooperative that may not be representing the true needs of its constituents, and a ruling government party that actively opposes the cooperative, Japan is going through some huge changes.

JA Zenchu (Central Union of Agricultural Co-operatives) is a mammoth organization that not only represents the interests of 47 prefectural agricultural co-ops and controls a huge insurance company and one of Japan’s largest banks. JA Zenchu has been steadfast in supporting tariffs on foreign rice (up to nearly 800 percent) and has been opposed to Japan joining the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).

In the other corner of the struggle over food, there’s the current government, controlled by Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Abe and his allies would love to break JA Zenchu.

In the current battle between JA Zenchu and the LDP, the LDP seems to be winning. And it’s not just on the political front. Market concerns are changing the roles of middlemen, unions and wholesalers. A huge grocery store chain, Aeon, is beginning to buy rice directly from producers.

The farmers average age around 66 – and they’ve long depended on the advocacy of the JA Zenchu and protectionist policies of the government. Even parties like the LDP still depend on rural turnout during elections.  They’re pushing for an end to production controls by 2018, but still subsidizing farmers who switch to other crops or produce rice for livestock.

On one hand, a system is in place that supports small farmers and crop diversity. But the co-op that protects these farmers seems more concerned with insurance and banking.  The current government is focused on pushing Japan out of its decades-long economic slump through monetary policy and a rush to corporatize farming.   What direction Japan takes remains the big question.  Rice will remain on the Japanese table. How it gets there is up for grabs.

Growing Rice in Japan

Entrepreneurial Opportunities in Cuba?

A.. J.  Corchado writes:  When the news of the biggest political thaw in more than half a century between the U.S. and Cuba finally came, Cynthia Thomas discovered an unusual longing.  For more than 14 years, Thomas faced an uphill battle in helping lay the foundation for Texas companies to do business in Cuba. President Barack Obama’s Dec. 17 executive order to normalize relations with Cuba provides Texans with a new opportunity.

While normalization won’t be complete until Congress ends its economic embargo, Thomas and others believe the move is a milestone for the United States, particularly Texas. Over the years, Texas leaders have touted possible deals for beans, cotton, rice, grain, packaged desserts, organic soaps, livestock, even airlines and ports. Success has come slowly, with overall sales of Texas agriculture products topping $89 million in 2009 before falling. Some agricultural products are exempt from the embargo.

The fact that Texas doesn’t carry the political baggage of the swing state of Florida bodes well for the Lone Star State.

Texas and Cuba — the Western Hemisphere’s last communist nation — may seem like an odd match, but they share intriguing bits of history. Both have had revolutions. Both have a passion for gritty cowboys, fine cattle and baseball. And both have unwavering pride in their independent spirit, underscored by their flags, each emblazoned with a single star.  On Fidel Castro’s first and only trip to the United States in 1959, he stopped in Houston, met with a Texas cattlemen’s group and donned a cowboy hat for the cameras.

Texas lore fascinates Cubans. Near Cuba’s heartland town of Camaguey, where Texas’ King Ranch once owned thousands of acres and raised the most prized cattle herd around, locals readily embrace norteño music, known in Texas as Tex-Mex. The properties were expropriated by the Cuban Revolution and are now known as Rancho King, said to be one of Fidel Castro’s favorite places for quiet reflection.

Cuba will require patience for investors and tourists. The island is packed with well-educated residents hungry for technology, new fashion styles, restaurants, etc. Yet much of the population of more than 11 million people is mired in poverty. With a per capita gross domestic product of about $3,900, most Cubans cannot afford pricey foreign products.  The key, he added, will be the development of the Cuban tourism industry, which boasts of its stunning beaches.

 Cuba Opens Up

Do Women Prefer Male Bosses?

The higher women climb up the career ladder, the bigger the gender gap grows. Women still hold just 5 percent of CEO positions and 17 percent of board seats, according to research group Catalyst. One of the biggest obstacles to narrowing the gender gap for female leaders may be the employees who work for them.

According to a recent Gallop poll, employees of both genders prefer male bosses to female bosses. Among the 60 percent of employees who have a preference either way, women (40 percent) actually are more likely to prefer a male boss than men (29 percent).

Yet research from leadership consultancy Zenger Folkman shows that women are actually more effective leaders than men, scoring higher on 12 of 16 leadership attributes, according to Robert Sherwin, chief operating officer at Zenger Folkman.

So why don’t we like them more?

Misguided perceptions and stereotypes about female leaders at all levels of the workplace may be playing at play. People believe that women are less effective leaders.  But women score higher than men on developng others, building relationships and collaboration.

Women also scored higher on leadership traits often attributed to men, such as taking initiative, driving results and being a champion for change.

Another reason for the disconnect between the effectiveness of female leaders and the preference for male bosses simply may be that few employees actually know what it’s like to work for a woman.  One of the few subgroups in Gallup’s poll that did not tilt toward a male leader was the 30 percent of employees who work for a female boss. Those employees were equally split in their preferences—perhaps showing that gender equality among leaders creates gender equality among workers as well.

For workers to see the benefits of working for a female boss firsthand, the number of women leaders must increase.  Female role models help inspire women who are aspiring to leadership positions. But they also help educate men who already are in the executive suite about the strength of female leaders and the ways they can improve a company’s performance and results.

The increased adoption of family-friendly workplace polices such as paid maternity and paternity leave also could help drive the growth of female leaders.

Women Bosses Have An Unfair Reputation

Belly Dancing: An Opportunity for Entrepreneurs

Belly dancing has always been a popular profession for women in Turkey.  When the profession first started, men ‘zennas’ participated as much as women.  Zennes used to be young. In the days of the Ottoman Empire, boys at the age of 7 (mostly from non-Muslim families) started training and they performed until they could no longer hide their beards. That is no longer an issue, Tarik said. “I can dance with a beard, as long as it is stylish. However, body hair is still a no-no.”

Another male dancer, Ali Murat Sahiner, in his mid-30s, is open about his identity. Sahiner, better known as Diva has been dancing since 2000, and his family knows about his profession. He has danced at the most prestigious nightclubs in Turkey, such as Al Jamal, Cahide and Zarifi.

In the early 2000s, Diva says, my friends who had a restaurant in Ankara asked if I could perform one night because there was a shortage of male dancers in those days. That is how I started. Then I went to a popular resort town on the Mediterranean] during the summer, and I now live in Istanbul and earn my living exclusively by dancing.

Diva is passionate about his art, and he is known to have inspired many young dancers. He said, “Initially, it was a secret but once I appeared on television, we could no longer hide it. My family was concerned, but now they understand this is my profession.” Diva, like many other dancers, has a website since he does not hide his identity or wear a veil during performances for fear of cameras.

The most famous belly dancer in Germany is a Turkish male dancer, Mehmet Sasmaz.

Women still find belly dancing satisfying work and welcome men to their ranks.

Men Belly Dancing in Turkey

Entrepreneurs: Sell 1, Give 1 Away?

 

US Money Toms
Blake Mycoskie founded Tom’s in 2006.  It was the first one for one company. 

Five years after he lost his shot at winning $1m in the first season of The Amazing Race, Mycoskie returned to Argentina to explore the country – and Malbec. Few days into his trip, he found himself joining in on a shoe drive, collecting shoes in a better-off areas and then driving them to places outside the city to be distributed to the poor.  “When we started pulling out the shoes, you’d have thought it was Christmas day. These kids were so excited to get these shoes and they weren’t even new. They weren’t even in the package.”

Mycoskie was excited, too. Until he realized that come next year, the 250 children they had outfitted with shoes would need a new pair again. Taking few extra weeks in Argentina, he came up with a plan: he had a local shoe maker make about 250 pairs of shoes, he would sell them back in California and then use the money to get another 250 pairs to give the kids.

Simple, right?

That’s until the Toms shoes, as he called them, actually took off. After being rejected by a couple of places, a store agreed to sell about 80 pairs of Toms shoes. Mycoskie had sold another 30 to friends and relatives, through a website he had created, with one or two orders coming in each week. The day after an article appeared in the LA Times, Toms received orders for 2,200 pairs of shoes by 2 o’clock that afternoon.

“But I only had 140 pairs in my apartment. This was the first of my many supply chain problems to come,” says Mycoskie. “I did what I think a lot of entrepreneurs do in a time of dire need – I started posting as many ads for interns on craigslist as possible. And that strategy worked.”

Within a week, he had three interns contacting all the people who placed their and whose cards were already charged, to let them know that they were working on filling their orders. At the same time, Mycoskie was on a plane to Argentina to figure out how to make more shoes.

The new supply chain, consisting of six to seven guys making about 800 to 900 shoes a week, worked– that is, until Anna Wintour’s office called.  Vogue Magazine [made] it look like I know exactly what I am doing,” Mycoskie says of the article. “This does not look like a guy who is selling shoes out of his apartment with interns and they are making them in garages all throughout Buenos Aires and because it was Vogue magazine – all of a sudden everyone through we were a real company.”

That year Toms ended up selling 10,000 shoes out of Mycoskie’s apartment. Since then Toms’ ‘One for One’ has grown beyond shoes to eyewear and coffee.

Says Mycoskie in interview:  II am a very curious person and I need to be stimulate, to stay engaged. If I was just doing shoes all the time and working on just giving shoes, I think I’d get bored. Part of the reason we do these other products is, one, so we can help people in more ways and that’s very gratifying.

I think companies are starting to realize that there is real opportunity to address needs and build sustainable, profitable businesses at the same time.

Did you anticipate that consumers would be so enthusiastic about your social mission?

No, of course not. We figured out early on that people were interested in what we were doing but never did we anticipate the demand that we’ve had.

What are some of the more interesting things you are hearing from your customers? Do they want to do more?

The most interesting thing is that customers really want to be connected, not just at a time of the purchase, but through the life cycle of the purchase.

Is there anything you would have done differently?

I wish that I had more experience on the retail side.

Hiring:

As the company grows there is this pressure to hire all these people that have the right things on their resume and have done the job before and all that stuff. But the truth is there is not so much about doing the job before, it’s about being the right mentality and attitude so that you can learn the job and you can do it with the right spirit.

 

 

Investors Shun Turkey

Mehmet Cetingulec writes:  Turkey is in urgent need of investment to stem rising unemployment. It is all but obvious now that the construction sector alone cannot sustain economic growth and reduce unemployment. Investment is needed from both foreign and local sources to build plants and create jobs. Yet, economic data for the first nine months of the year shows that foreign direct investment (FDI) in Turkey is on the decline, while Turkey’s own investors are increasingly fleeing abroad.

Optimism was high earlier in the year. FDI stood at $5.1 billion in the first four months, and was estimated to reach $16 billion at year end.  What happened in the second half of the year that made investors lose their appetite?

While the impact of the conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Ukraine on Turkey grew, expectations rose that emerging economies would have trouble following the US decision to stop monetary expansion. Domestically, unrest in the mainly Kurdish southeast and escalating political tensions have also discouraged foreign and local investors.

Even the revised growth target lowered from 4% to 3.3%, has become unattainable amid a downturn in investment and industrial output.

The official jobless rate, 10.1% in August, climbed to 10.5% in September. No fewer than 3,064,000 Turks are looking for work.

According to the latest data on investment, the key factor affecting unemployment, FDI inflows amounted only to $750 million in September. FDI in the first nine months of the year stood at $9.12 billion. This figure, however, includes $3.1 billion invested in real estate, which means that foreigners put only about $6 billion in business.

CHP lawmaker Umut Oran, who has conducted a comprehensive study on domestic and foreign investments, told Al-Monitor, “For years, the government managed the system with hot money. Now it is about to face the bitter reality.”

Oran argued that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government wasted time with economic models that failed to create jobs. Turkish capital invested abroad hit an all-time high of $4.2 billion in the first nine months of the year, up 113% from the same period last year.

“Turkey is no longer able to lure foreign capital, as it keeps drifting away from democracy and the rule of law to being a country whose judiciary is paralyzed and public auditing mechanisms are used as a weapon by the government, and which is increasingly becoming a third-world country where one-man rule is taking root amid rampant corruption,” Oran said. “Local capital is looking for countries to flee [to]. Its new destinations are the Netherlands, Germany, Azerbaijan and the United States.”

Faik Oztrak, CHP deputy chairman for relations with the business community and a former Treasury undersecretary, told Al-Monitor he had obtained more recent figures, which indicate that FDI in the first 10 months of the year amounted to $10 billion, while Turkish investment abroad reached $4.7 billion in the same period.

“Our businesspeople seem to believe that the investment climate in Turkey has deteriorated. And they have good reasons for that. To expect them to make investments in a country where the rule of law takes blows each and every day, where the concept of justice is eroding and political interference in the economy is increasing, would be over-optimistic,” Oztak said.

Oztrak’s point is of critical importance. The Turkish economy faces an uphill track, even though it benefits from falling oil prices. Before anything else, Turkey has to guarantee law and justice, stamp out nepotism and make sure to address people’s fears.

Turkey's Economy