Is the American Dream Over?

Richard Reeves writes about the Horatio Alger awards:  Twelve new members (11 men, one woman) were honored for having risen from childhood poverty to positions as captains of commerce or celebrated public servants. Colin Powell, a 1991 award recipient, was among those in the audience. The new members’ speeches were brief, striking a balance between pride and humility, and all hewing to the rags-to-riches theme.

The climax of the evening came with the arrival on stage of more than 100 students from poor and troubled backgrounds to whom the Society had awarded college scholarships. . The ceremony had the feel of an act of worship and thanksgiving before the altar of the society’s namesake. It was a genuinely moving experience, even for me—and I’m a Brit.

Vivid stories of those who overcome the obstacles of poverty to achieve success are all the more impressive because they are so much the exceptions to the rule. Contrary to the Horatio Alger myth, social mobility rates in the United States are lower than in most of Europe. There are forces at work in America now—forces related not just to income and wealth but also to family structure and education—that put the country at risk of creating an ossified, self-perpetuating class structure, with disastrous implications for opportunity and, by extension, for the very idea of America.

In his second inaugural address in 2013, Barack Obama declared: “We are true to our creed when a little girl born into the bleakest poverty knows that she has the same chance to succeed as anybody else, because she is an American; she is free, and she is equal, not just in the eyes of God but also in our own.”

Strive and Succeed cover

The United States was to be a self-made nation comprised of self-made men. Alexis de Tocqueville—the first of many clever Frenchmen to wow the American reading classes—suffused his Democracy in America with admiration of the young nation’s “manly and legitimate passion for equality,” while Abraham Lincoln extolled his countrymen’s “genius for independence.”

There is a simple formula here—equality plus independence adds up to the promise of upward mobility.   Hence the toddlers who show up at daycare centers in T-shirts emblazoned “Future President.” Hence Americans’ culture of competitiveness, their obsession with sports, their frequent and all-purpose references to “the rules of the game” and to “fairness.” Hence the patriotism-tinged pride of the successful, exulting not only in their own grit and prowess, but also in the meritocratic system that gave them scope and opportunity.   Can Americans Still Dream

Criminals on Trial and at Large

Matt Levine deliciously balances his take on financial matters.  One story he tells is of an information security director at the Multi-State Lottery Association who won a $14.3 million jackpot after he allegedly accessed the secure room housing the computer and infected the random number generator with software that allowed him to control the number generated. He goes on trial next week.

For your edification, Mr. Tipton changed the settings of the cameras so that they only filmed one second of every minute, so he had 59 seconds to break in, insert his thumb drive and watch the progress bar crawl across the screen as the klaxons rang in the distance.

image015Mr. Levine also notes that Jesse Drucker went to Switzerland to visit with 21 financial advisors who remain under US indictment and are at large.  He reports they have adapted well to fugitive life.

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Entrepreneurs Alert: US and Cuba Talking

Entrepreneur Alert: Maple Syrup Cartel

Twenty-five years ago, Quebec made a bold move to produce the most maple syrup in the world. Today, the syrup giant is unstoppable.

Just ask those in its path, like small producer Angèle Grenier, who will face criminal charges if she sells this year’s harvest to her buyer of choice.

In previous years she has sold syrup to a broker in New Brunswick. But this year, a Quebec court order will force her to hand all the syrup produced on her small patch of land to the Federation of Quebec Maple Syrup Producers.

The family has three choices for the upcoming harvest — capitulate to the demands of the court, cease production, or continue to sell it outside the province and face criminal charges.

“The federation’s goal by taking our maple syrup is that by taking our income, we cannot pay our lawyers,” says Grenier. “We’ll send our syrup to them this year because we need the money.”

Welcome to Big Syrup.    Maple Syrup Cartel in CanadaMaple Syrup

Should Indian Entrepreneurs Embrace Robots?

Avainish Persaud writes:  Prime Minister Narenda Modi’s declaration on the ramparts of the Red Fort last year that the world should come and make products in India, did not upset workers. Rightly or wrongly, they do not worry that India will eat their lunch. They are convinced that machines are already doing so.

What kept the angst in check was that while robots were increasingly doing complex things, like  IBM’s Deep Blue beat world champion Garry Kasparov at chess, they couldn’t get the hang of simple things. Computers could make human tasks easier but they could not do away with the human altogether and so a Nobel Laureate was able to say that “we see the computer age everywhere except for the productivity statistics”.

But after 50 years of the application of Moore’s Law—where the power of computers doubles every 18 months—that barrier has finally cracked.
Amazon’s Kiva Robots lift shelves that weigh around 1,360kg, 24×7, without a toilet break, lunch hour, health insurance or pension plan.  No surprise then that the world’s largest manufacturer of electronic products, Taiwan’s Foxconn, is considering replacing its workforce with one million “Foxbots”.
Economists tend to reject the lump of labour idea—that there are only so many jobs and if they no longer exist people would not have work. Back in 1810, 90% of the US workforce was employed in agriculture. Today it is just 2% and the 88% are not unemployed.  Yet John Maynard Keynes said our discovery of means of economizing the use of labour outruns the pace at which we find new uses for labour.
Some believe this process has been underway for a while and underscores a secular stagnation and worsening inequality in the advanced economies. The typical worker in the US has not seen a rise in their living standards since 1979 and since then income inequality has steadily worsened.
The rise of robots also questions whether this is the time for India to don the overalls of the world’s manufacturer and for Indian workers to compete against the Foxbots. In 1983, Wassily Leontief, the economist, predicted that the role of humans as the most important factor of production is bound to diminish in the same way that the role of horses in agricultural production was first diminished and then eliminated by the introduction of tractors.
Is the geography of manufacturing not about to change from production economies of scale to a world in which consumers pay to download the software that allows their robot to make the product they want? In which case is this not the time to build on India’s brand as a software powerhouse?
Perhaps the government should eliminate the high barriers to doing things in India, whatever it may be, and redistributing enough income to provide greater equality of opportunity for as many as possible. If the robots are coming, we should not try to compete against them or hide from them. We should embrace them, write their code, own them or tax their owners.
Manufacturing in India?

Women Entrepreneurs: Can-Do Dubai Culture

Dubai is a can-do environment for entrepreneurs.

Handbags:  Luxe bag designer Zufi Alexander has found a fan base among such fashionable red carpet walkers as Cate Blanchett, Sienna Miller, Alicia Keys and Beyoncé.

After a university education that combined the US with the ivory towers of Oxford, she cut her business teeth at one of London’s most established auction houses. “I love art and vintage jewellery and have always been good at drawing,” she says. “A role at Christie’s fitted the bill perfectly.”

It soon became clear that the surroundings – and perhaps the sale of the odd vintage Chanel clutch – were inspiring her own artistic aspirations as a handbag designer.

Zufi Alexander’s eponymous label now sells more than 10,000 bags a year to women across the world. Married to an Englishman and living between London and Dubai, she personifies the international woman she designs for.

“Dubai is a land of opportunity and that opportunity is not tied to a particular bracket or class of people,” she says. “At the same time, I love it because I get to experience all different types of people and culture.”

That vow has been superseded by her love of what she has achieved: “It’s all worthwhile when I see a confident woman walking down the street clutching one of my bags.”

Luxury Leather goods:  Nicole Silvertand, founder of luxury leather marque Complete, grew up every inch the sophisticated lady. Nurturing an appreciation of elegant, quality product, her craftsman father spoilt her generously with one-off handbags and shoes he made especially for her.

Inspired by the vibrant business culture of Dubai, Silvertand took the plunge in 2002 and set about launching her own leather business. Complete’s range of leather goods are made bespoke for key movers and shakers of the region including Armani Dubai, Al Maha Desert Resort & Spa and Burj Al Arab.

Silvertand offers clients a range of 12 leather colours from black and brown to vibrant turquoise, orange and silver. All of the items are made to order so everything can be uniquely branded and personalised.

“Because of spending so much time in my father’s atelier while I was growing up, with education, age and experience I became aware of the vast opportunities for a company providing commercial organisations, government departments and five-star hotels with beautifully designed leather goods,” says Silvertand. “The word ‘Complete’ perfectly summarises that sense of entirety; of being able to satisfy all clients’ needs.

Dubai Entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurs: How to Adapt

Mohamed A. El-Erian writes:  Like many readers, I still vividly recall when Nokia was the dominant player in mobile phones, with over 40% of the market, and Apple was just a computer company. I remember when Amazon was known only for books, and when dirty taxis or high-priced limousines were the only alternative to public transport or my own car. And I recall when the Four Seasons, Ritz Carltons, and St. Regises of this world competed with one another – not with Airbnb.

These changes happened recently – and fast. How did they occur? Will the pace of change remain so rapid – or even accelerate further? And how should companies respond?

Central to these companies’ success has been their understanding of a fundamental trend affecting nearly all industries: individual empowerment through the Internet, app technology, digitalization, and social media. Most traditional companies, meanwhile, remain focused on their macro environment, at the expense of responding adequately to the new micro-level forces in play.

Companies must recognize that both demand and supply factors are or will be driving the transformation of their competitive landscapes. On the demand side, consumers expect a lot more from the products and services they use. They want speed, productivity, and convenience. They want easy connectivity and expanded scope for customization. And, as the success of services like TripAdvisor show, they want to be more engaged, with companies responding faster to their feedback with real improvements.

On the supply side, technological advances are toppling long-standing entry barriers. The online car service Uber adapted existing technologies to transform a long-sheltered industry that too often provided lousy and expensive service. Airbnb’s “supply” of rooms far exceeds anything to which traditional hotels could reasonably aspire.

An existing company would have to be highly specialized, well protected, or foolish to ignore these disruptions. But, while some well-established companies in traditional industries are already looking for ways to adapt, others still need to do a lot more.

Banks are adapting, but much more slowly and hesitantly. If they are to make progress, they must move beyond simply providing apps and online banking. Their aim should be holistic engagement of clients, who seek not only convenience and security, but also more control over their financial destiny.

· First, companies should modernize core competencies by benchmarking beyond the narrow confines of their industry.

· Second, they should increase their focus on customers, including by soliciting and responding to feedback in an engaging way.

· Third, managers should recognize the value of the data collected in their companies’ everyday operations, and ensure that it is managed intelligently and securely.

· Finally, the micro-level forces that have the potential to drive segment-wide transformations should be internalized at every level of the company.

Companies that apply these guidelines stand a better chance of adapting to what is driving today’s rapid reconfiguration of entire industries.

Adaptability

The Impact of Hi Tech in Latin America

Luis A. Moreno: At the upcoming Summit of the Americas in Panama City, business and government leaders will discuss the economic challenges facing the Western Hemisphere, especially how to support inclusive growth in the wake of the commodities bonanza that endured for the better part of the last decade. Any strategy will have to account for an inescapable global phenomenon: the so-called “Second Machine Age.”

The MIT economists Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson, among others, identify the Second Machine Age with the rise of new automation technologies and artificial intelligence. While optimists predict that these innovations will usher in an era of unprecedented abundance, less sanguine analysts estimate that nearly half of all jobs currently performed by humans are vulnerable to replacement by robots and increasingly sophisticated software.

Advanced technologies are already making inroads into some of Latin America’s principal industries. For example, carmakers, which employ hundreds of thousands of people across the region, are rapidly deploying robots that are more efficient and precise than humans. I

Service industries, which already account for two-thirds of all jobs in Latin America, are particularly vulnerable. One Brazilian startup’s tax-management software, for example, can perform in seconds operations that would demand thousands of billable hours from an army of accountants.

Is Latin America ready for this epochal change?

Most notably, Latin American and Caribbean economies must address their productivity gap – the result of their failure, with few exceptions, to boost productivity significantly since the 1960s. As they adjust to lower prices for oil, metals, and grain – and the eventual upturn in global interest rates – they will have to pursue productivity-enhancing reforms. Ensuring that the region’s already-skewed income distribution does not worsen – and, indeed, improves – is also essential.

The good news is that Latin America’s agendas for technology, productivity, and inclusivity overlap; for example, improvements in education and the encouragement of formal employment advance all three objectives.

First, companies can boost their own human capital by providing on-the-job training – a proven tactic that remains rare in Latin America. Here, there has been some progress.

Second, Latin American companies should increase their investment in research and development.

Latin American businesses can change this by emulating their counterparts in the Brazilian state of São Paulo, which have research contracts with leading public universities. Such links, common throughout North America, have helped to lift São Paulo’s R&D spending to 1.6% of GDP – higher than that of Spain or Italy.

Third, Latin American companies can help to improve education – often much faster than the government can implement effective reforms. In Peru, one businessman took matters into his own hands, commissioning the creation of an entirely new education model. Four years later, Carlos Rodriguez-Pastor has established 23 Innova schools, serving 13,500 students, where teachers’ knowledge and skills are continuously updated. He hopes to build a 200-school network in the coming years.

Finally, Latin American business leaders should support budding entrepreneurs, who lack not only the capital, but also the support system needed to turn their ideas into viable ventures.

Von Ahn, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University in the United States, has already sold one innovative company to Google. That company, reCAPTCHA, harnesses CAPTCHAs to have people decode a word from, say, a newspaper article that a computer scanner has been unable to recognize and digitize.

Latin America cannot afford to lose gifted innovators like von Ahn. It is in the interest of established business leaders to help mentor and finance these visionaries, enabling them to flourish at home so that they do not set up shop abroad.

Impact of Technology in Latin America

 

US and Central Asia

Casey Michel writes:  The United States is often – and often fairly – maligned for a distinct lack of strategy in its relations with Central Asia. Tacked on to Chinese or Afghanistan policy, bogged in securitization or stilted democratization efforts, Washington has seemed unable to formulate a distinct, coherent policy for the region for years. Unlike Beijing’s economic expansion or Moscow’s military ties, Washington’s Central Asian policy, if one appears, often comes across as an afterthought.

That’s not to say efforts haven’t been made to bring a policy to bear. Earlier this week, Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke at the Brookings Institute, attempting to provide a sketch of Washington’s current regional plans. But in lieu of innovation or revamp, Washington appears content to continue along the muddled path it’s followed prior, with stale plans and retread ideas bundled once more.

For instance, Blinken cited the New Silk Road initiative, which has had little impact on the ground in its four years of existence. Pointing to attempts at “helping develop the region’s connectivity,” Blinken cited the CASA-1000 project, which will “help bring surplus hydro-electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan.” The CASA-1000 project, as it is, stands as one of America’s foremost efforts at regional integration – but makes little sense when Kyrgyzstan is a net electricity importer, as it experienced during 2014. Washington hasn’t attempted to explain just how the CASA-1000 will function with Tajikistan as the sole provider of surplus electricity. Blinken didn’t offer any explanation, either.

Blinken also cited Washington’s “three important objectives” in the region: strengthening partnerships to advance mutual security; forging closer economic ties; and advancing and advocating for improved governance and human rights.” The ordering – security foremost – speaks louder than the content. Blinken later reiterated the primacy of security, noting that “our policy in Central Asia [is] founded on two distinct ideas:  US and Central AsiaEveryone Competes for Central Asis

Iran: The Beginning of a Beautiful Friendship for Entrepreneurs?

Tony Burman writes:  If this deal ultimately leads to a constructive new partnership with the West, which existed before the Islamic revolution of 1979, it will dramatically change the strategic balance in the Middle East. And this will be for the good.

Inevitably, as the final deadline in June approaches, the voices against this deal with Iran will be loud and alarmist. They will exploit the media’s often uncritical echo chamber to terrify. Working for peace is hard work and complicated, but sounding bold and bellicose is easy.

We only have the past century to remind us. We can still hear the voices that bellowed “treason” in response to any nuclear deal with the Soviet Union’s “evil empire” or to any accommodation with “Red China.” But those courageous acts changed the direction of the world for the good

The battle for American public opinion has only begun. A Washington Post/ABC News poll released on Tuesday showed that Americans by nearly a 2-to-1 margin support a deal with Iran but are skeptical that Iran will keep to the bargain. This week’s drama has only emboldened critics of the deal. Already, there are calls from American conservatives for Israel, the U.S. or both to bomb Iran. In the U.S. Congress, the Republicans have vowed to do what they can to block the interim accord and to try to impose added sanctions on Iran.

Three major objections to this interim agreement are wrong on all three counts:

  • “Additional sanctions would produce a better deal.”

Not true. Decades of sanctions against Iran didn’t force Iran to give up its nuclear program or convince Iranians to revolt. Additional sanctions will simply persuade Iran that negotiations are a waste of time and to conclude that the real western motive is “regime change.”

  • “Iran will be allowed to cheat.”

Why should this be so? Yes, Iran has cheated in the past but that was because the monitoring was weak. This isn’t a deal being made in the dead of night with casual drifters. This is an agreement that is being signed by six of the world’s great powers.

  • “A strengthened Iran will destabilize the Middle East.”

Again, why should this be so? Iran is a cultured, civilized country with a vibrant young population that wants to come in from the cold — in fact, they are insisting on it. If this process unfolds as outlined, why wouldn’t Iran become a positive force in the evolution of a region that we all know is clearly broken.

History is replete with self-serving politicians eager to show off their manhood by sending other people’s children to die in their name. We have miraculously survived the 20th century because enough people, eventually, said ‘no’ to them.

That challenge is no less urgent now, and this week’s historic breakthrough with Iran — because of its promise and in spite of its risks — can be a big step along that journey.

 Iran Negotiations