China Finances Nicaragua Canal?

Chinelse company to build green canal in Nicaragua.

The Nicaragua Canal project now under construction is expected to link the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and be a green project as well, an offical with China’s HKND Group that holds the concession for the canal told local media on Monday.

The 279-km-long mega project, which began at the end of 2014, will take five years to build with a total cost of 50 billion U.S. dollars.

It will provide a more convenient interoceanic passage for large vessels that can not go through the Panama Canal, such as 25,000-TEU container ships, said Bill Wild, HKND Group’s chief project adviser.

Moreover, over the past two years, HKND has also made great efforts on the environmental and social impact assessment, which has been submitted to the local government and is waiting for approval.

Wild said the company will launch a re-forestation program for watersheds along the canal. Also, the canal will serve as a protective barrier once the program is completed. There will be a 10-km-wide “no-go area” in the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor so that no human activities will affect wildlife in this area.

Material excavated during construction will be used to create some 30,000 to 40,000 hectares of land for agriculture, Wild said.

He said two islands with rock walls will be built in Cocibolca or Nicaragua Lake, the country’s largest lake and part of the canal route, where the extracted material can be deposited.

The material will be extracted through a system that uses giant suction tubes, with a mechanism similar to a vacuum cleaner, ensuring the sediment is not simply disrupted and floating around, he said.

“The lake is one of the people’s biggest concerns. We will make sure to protect it,” Wild said.

Nicaraguan Canal?

Expanding the Suez

Egypt will inaugurate a “new Suez canal” shipping route in August aimed at speeding up traffic along the existing waterway and boosting revenues.  Dubbed the Suez Canal Axis, the new 72-kilometre (45 mile) project will run part of the way alongside the existing canal that connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.  It involves 37 kilometres of dry digging and 35 kilometres of expansion and deepening of the Suez Canal, in a bid to help speed up the movement of vessels.

Once the president inaugurates it, vessels will start moving through the new waterway,.  Eighty-five percent of the project that is being executed by the army has been completed so far.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi launched the project in August and set an ambitious target of digging the new canal in one year.

The project is part of an ambitious plan to develop the zone around the canal into an industrial and commercial hub, that would include the construction of ports and provide shipping services.

Authorities raised $9 billion (7.9 billion euros) to build the new canal by selling shares in the project to domestic investors, with private Egyptian companies tasked with its construction.

The new canal is expected to more than double Suez revenues from $5.3 billion expected at the end of 2015 to $13.2 billion in 2023, according to official estimates.

The new canal is considered a “national project” that aims to kick-start an economy battered by years of political turmoil since the ouster of president Hosni Mubarak in 2011   About 250 million cubic metres (8.8 billion cubic feet) of soil that had to be dredged, 219 million had already been dealt with.

The main idea behind the expansion is to reduce the waiting period of vessels.  By building this new canal, we are serving the whole world and international trade… By bringing the waiting hours down to 11 from 22… this makes it one of the fastest waterways in the world.

Built 146 years ago, the existing Suez Canal is one of the world’s most heavily used shipping lanes and has been a key source of international trade, earning Egypt billions of dollars in annual revenues.

The canal is a symbol of prestige and national pride for Egypt, apart from being vital for its economic stability.

Suez Canal

Infrastructure Repair

Paris will say goodbye to  the Pont des Arts loved by couples worldwide. On Monday 1 June, the padlocks which represent a love pledge will all be removed. One of the barriers had collapsed.  After almost a million couples have declared their love by plaing padlocks on the bridge, 54 tons of metal threaten to sink the deck.

The mayor of Paris has found a solution: the Plexiglas panels will be installed this fall, but as of Monday 1 June, the bridge will be closed for a week to remove the padlock.. Artists will display their work this summer.

o-PONTS-DES-ARTS-facebook

 

The Silk Road Opens

Angela Stanzel writes:  Since 2013, China has been hyping its New Silk Road project. It launched a massive public relations campaign – which even held out the prospect of “Silk Road Tourism” – to turn the idea of a global transportation network into an incentive to cooperate with China and an expression of an Asian “community of destiny”. But China will face huge challenges in making the New Silk Road a reality. One of the places where China had begun re-construction of ancient Silk Road links early on is Pakistan. But after decades, progress has been limited. Despite China’s commitment to the Silk Road project, it’s not clear that it is going anywhere.

The “Belt and Road” initiative” includes two elements, a Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road; the aim is to create a northern road corridor and a southern maritime corridor to connect China with Europe. Beginning with Jiang Zemin in 1996, the Silk Road narrative has been long used by Chinese leaders to increase China’s – mainly economic – cooperation with other countries in Central Asia, South Asia and the Middle East, Africa – and in Europe.  Since 2013, the new Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping has developed this narrative that integrates existing projects in two mega “Belt and Road” initiatives.

The Silk Road initiative has also given a new impetus to China’s infrastructure development in Pakistan. China’s construction of the Karakoram Highway/Road from China to Pakistan dates back to the beginning of the 1970s – long before the “Silk Road” hype of the last few months. China has financed and developed the Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea since the 1990s. Since 2013, China and Pakistan have been planning a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which connects Gwadar with China’s western Xinjiang region. According to Chinese president Xi Jinping, the Economic Corridor is “a major project of the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative”  How Does the Silk Road Wind

 Silk Road?

Infrastructure: A Life and Death Matter

Robert Puentes writes:  When a bridge falls, when a water main fails, or when a train crashes, news crews and commentators report on the sorry state of our nation’s infrastructure. Policymakers on both sides of the aisle say we need to do something to fix our roads and rails, our ports and pipes. This flurry of activity lasts for a few days, but then little to nothing happens.

Why isn’t there more action?

Despite infrastructure’s fundamental role in the health and safety of the American people and the economy, the United States has underinvested for decades. Today, infrastructure spending as a share of gross domestic product is about 2.5 percent, much lower than the 3.9 percent in peer countries such as Canada, Australia, and South Korea. The figure for Europe as a whole is closer to 5 percent and between 9 and 12 percent for China.

The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that the United States should spend at least an additional $150 billion a year on infrastructure through 2020 to meet its needs. This investment is expected to add about 1.5 percent to annual GDP and create at least 1.8 million jobs.

Unfortunately, the federal government has not taken the actions required to reinvest in our nation’s infrastructure. For the foreseeable future, federal support for programs such as the Highway Trust Fund and State Revolving Funds for water will likely continue to face cuts and budgetary shortfalls.

Other experiments, such as the National Infrastructure Bank (though noteworthy), seem too complex and politically challenging in the current legislative environment. Furthermore, given the rise in interest payments, increases in entitlement spending, and decline in traditional sources of government revenue such as the gasoline tax, competition for limited resources is fierce.

Cost in Lives

Cost in Lives

AIIB Connects with the World, US Excepted

Andrew Sheng writes: Despite official American and Japanese opposition, 57 countries have opted to be among the founding members of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Regardless of what naysayers believe, this remarkable turn of events can only benefit global economic governance.

According to former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, the AIIB’s establishment “may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system.”

Who is right will depend largely on the decisions that the AIIB’s top shareholders make regarding its operating structure. So far, the AIIB has not sought to amend the principle that the largest contributor to a multilateral organization gets the largest say in running it.

This implies a larger global leadership role for China. Massive debts have lately undermined the ability of the US – not to mention Europe and Japan – to continue making such large contributions to hte IMF.  Fortunately, China is willing and able to fill the gap.

China has a 3.8% voting share in the IMF and World Bank, even though it accounts for more than 12% of world GDP.

The AIIB has its own objectives, which do not align precisely with those of, say, the World Bank. Specifically, the bank is a critical element of China’s “one belt, one road” strategy, which encompasses two initiatives: the overland Silk Road Economic Belt, connecting China to Europe, and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, linking China to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

Connectivity is vital to economic growth. Over the last three decades, the construction of roads, railways, ports, airports, and telecommunications systems in China has fostered trade, attracted investment, and, by linking the country’s land-locked western and southern provinces to its more prosperous coastal areas, helped to reduce regional disparities.

China’s Silk Road initiative, which aims to boost prosperity among China’s trading partners largely through infrastructure investment, is a logical next step – one on which China is spending significantly.t.

Given massive global demand for infrastructure finance – which, according to ADB estimates, will amount to $8 trillion in Asia alone over the next decade – the AIIB should not be considered a threat to the World Bank, the ADB, or other multilateral lenders.

The AIIB’s operations will most likely resemble those of the World Bank in the 1960s, when engineers with hands-on development experience dominated the staff and could design lending conditions that worked for borrowers.

The acid test of the AIIB’s effectiveness will be its governance model. One failing of the Bretton Wood institutions is their full-time shareholder boards of directors, which tend to undermine effectiveness by micro-managing and often requesting conflicting lending conditions.

US and AIIB

Even if the AIIB does not deliver as promised, its establishment is an important reminder that in a fast-changing world, economic governance cannot remain stagnant. If Western leaders really do believe in innovation, competition, and meritocracy, they should welcome the AIIB.

Turkey Stream?

Mehmet Cetingulec  writes:  Russia cancelled the South Stream oil pipeline in December.  Without the commission’s approval, Bulgaria declared South Stream could not cross its territory. Russia, upset with the Europeans’ position, responded with the Turkey Stream project.

Putin’s move surprised the Europeans. Federica Mogherini, EU foreign affairs and security policy chief, declared on Euronews TV that the Russian decision illustrated the urgent need for Europe to diversify its gas procurement channels. The scrapped project was to have been 3,600 kilometers (2,237 miles) long and would have transported gas to Croatia, Hungary, Serbia and Slovenia.

Andras Deak, of the World Economy Institute, told Euronews: “The European Commission, by explaining why reconciliation would be more beneficial to both sides, could induce Russia to take a step back and thus boost its own prestige as well.” Neither Europe nor Putin, however, chose to step back. In fact, Putin moved forward, on his new project, meeting in February with Hungarian Prime Minister to discuss Turkey Stream.

After keeping Hungary onboard, Putin met with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in Moscow April 7, Putin proposed that Turkey Stream provide natural gas via Greece to the central Europe countries of Austria, Hungary, Macedonia and Serbia. Putin noted that the project could earn Greece hundreds of millions of euros every year. Tsipras’ only objection was to the name of the project — Turkey Stream.

As with South Stream, the European Commission is not in favor of Turkey Stream. With debate continuing over the project, Russia issued a warning to the European Union on April 14. the CEO of Gazprom, said EU obstruction of Turkey Stream would be a grave mistake that might prompt Gazprom to suspend the project and redirect its natural resources to Asian markets. He said that for Turkey Stream to be ready by 2019, construction should have already begun.

Gas will be brought to Trachea [on the European part of Turkey], and the project will be financed by finding buyers from the spot market. Greece, Serbia, Macedonia and Hungary want to participate in this project, but if Russia and Ukraine fully sort out their problems, this project could be forgotten. In its current form, it is not really economical. There is no buyer other than Turkey.

On the other hand, Yardim believes the Russians will not go back on their word and that the Turkey Stream project will be realized. He said four pipelines will be laid to carry 63 billion cubic meters of gas annually to Turkey.

Yardim said Russia, in delivering natural gas to Europe’s border via Turkey Stream, does not anticipate encountering financial problems. Will Russia give up on Turkey Stream? According to Yardim, “I know that Russia has decided on this issue. I worked with Russians for 25 years. They don’t easily change their minds. I don’t think they will revert to South Stream.”

Turkey Stream

China and the US in the Global Economy?

Jeffrey Frankel writes: China and the United States seem to regard Asia-Pacific relations similarly: as a zero-sum game. Are countries signing up for China’s Asian Infrastructure Bank or America’s Trans-Pacific Partnership?  Will China be welcomed, or humiliatingly rebuffed, in its effort to persuade the International Monetary Fund to include the renminbi in its unit of account, Special Drawing Rights (SDR)? Is the US still the world’s largest economy, or did China surpass it in 2014?

However tempting it may be to focus on such questions, they are the wrong way to think about the global economy. There is no reason why some countries should not join both China’s AIIB and America’s TPP, or why overlapping memberships should not expand over time – or, indeed, why the hostesses should not eventually attend each other’s parties.

There is nothing wrong with joining the AIIB. Asia needs more help with infrastructure investment than the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank can provide; China can play a useful leadership role; and the participation of countries with high governance standards can help prevent the cronyism, corruption, and environmental damage to which large-scale infrastructure projects are prone.

Likewise, the TPP negotiations are sometimes characterized as a US attempt to isolate China. But, given the Asia-Pacific region’s high trade volumes, and its dense set of trading arrangements running in every direction, no one, including China, is about to be isolated.

Exchange rates are another area where zero-sum thinking prevails.

Every five years, the IMF reconsiders its composition, which currently is defined in terms of the dollar, euro, yen, and pound.  A misplaced focus on country rankings can do real damage.

Such is the case with the stalled IMF quota reform, an issue where the rankings in fact are of some importance, but not in a zero-sum way. quota shares, implying greater financial contributions and greater voting weights.

Thirty years ago, the West wanted nothing more than for China to become a capitalist economy. It has done so, with spectacular success. The rules of the game now require that China be given a bigger share in the governance of international institutions.

China and the US

Financial and Economic Markets Might Mix Like Oil and Oil!

Open letter to the FInancial Times:

Sir, The European Central Bank forecasts unemployment in the eurozone to remain at 10 per cent even after €1.1tn of quantitative easing. (FT View, March 25). This is hardly surprising: the evidence suggests that conventional QE is an unreliable tool for boosting GDP or employment.

Bank of England research shows that it benefits the well-off, who gain from increasing asset prices, much more than the poorest. In the eurozone, where interest rates are at rock bottom and bond yields have already turned negative, injecting even more liquidity into the markets will do little to help the real economy.

There is an alternative. Rather than being injected into the financial markets, the new money created by eurozone central banks could be used to finance government spending (such as investing in much needed infrastructure projects); alternatively each eurozone citizen could be given €175 per month, for 19 months, which they could use to pay down existing debts or spend as they please. By directly boosting spending and employment, either approach would be far more effective than the ECB’s plans for conventional QE.

The ECB will argue that this approach breaks the taboo of mixing monetary and fiscal policy. But traditional monetary policy no longer works. Failure to consider new approaches will unnecessarily prolong stagnation and high unemployment. It is time for the ECB and eurozone central banks to bypass the financial system and work with governments to inject newly created money directly into the real economy.

 Print Money

Issues for Hillary Clinton

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will announce her run for the presidency tomorrow.   Here are the words we are looking for:

Inequality

End Glass Steagall

Break up of banks

Education reform

Afforable housing for all

Diversion of public funds by corruptioin

Commodities trading

High speed trading

Inclusive foreign policy

Mrs. Clinton AnnouncesAdd to the list on twitter or below.