The Social and Economic Cost of Incarceration

Robert Rubin, Secretary of the Treasury and Nicholas Turner, head of a criminal ustie institute write on the problem of high incarceration rates in the US.  They cite a comprehensive report  published this year.

This is not only a serious humanitarian and social issue, but one with profound economic and fiscal consequences. In an increasingly competitive global economy, equipping Americans for the modern workforce is an economic imperative. Excessive incarceration harms productivity. People in prison are people who aren’t working. And without effective rehabilitation, many are ill-equipped to work after release.

Interestingly one person exploring a possible Presidential candidacy in 2016, former Senator Jim Webb of Virginia, has been trying to address this problem for a very long time. He first became interested in inarceration rates when he visited prisons in Japan, a country half our size with incarceration rates about 1/20th of ours.

He then tried to develop ths issue as he was campagining.  When asked whether this was foolish for a US politician, whose popularity is usually determined by ‘tough on crime’ caveats, he said he felt a politican should lead on issues, not follow.

Clearly in the US our punishment of victimless crimes is out of control.  Clearly also, the majority of people incarcerated are of African American descent.

In addressing on a deeper level the cause of racial division in the US, we would do well to listen to Jim Webb.

Robert Rubin seldom bills as one his crednetials his position as a partner of Robert Freeman on the arbitrage desk of Goldman Sachs.  Freeman was led out of Goldman in handcuffs for insider trading, although he ended up only pleaing to a mail fraud charge. He did spend 4 months in jail, a rare event for people of Freeman and Rubin’s ilk.   Is Rubin’s recent interest a mea culpa or a way of lobbing an issue up in the air that is more apporpriately Jim Webb’s than Rubin’s good friend Mrs. Clinton’s.

Let’s hope that if this is poitics as usual that the issue sticks and begins to be addressed in the US.

Behind Bars

 

 

 

 

Counterfeits on Canal

Popular fashion designs have been copied throughout history—and a new exhibition reveals the blurred line between stealing an idea and celebratory homage.
Today, counterfeit fashion evokes heaving piles of fake designer bags on Canal Street. Or fast-fashion chains like Zara and H&M churning out runway imitations.But the phenomenon of counterfeiting is as old as couture itself. In the early 1900s, fashion forgers often sketched designs they saw in Paris shows and sold reproductions in France and overseas. By 1914, more than two million fake couture labels had been sewn into garments, several of which are currently on view in New York City at the Museum at FIT’s exhibition.
The superb economic writer for the New Yorker magazine pointed out that counterfeits are really a win-win business.

The only people who can afford the real thing buy it six months before counterfeits are on the market.  By the time they have competition on the street, they have moved on to the next luxury item.  Rich people are flattered as the peons pick up their Vuitton bags and Chanel suits.  Designers are inspired to move on more quickly to catch the next wave.

If we don’t solve the inequality problem this way, at least we make everyone happy for a moment.  Wiin. Win.

Counterfeits

Does Inequality Drive Growth?

Dani Rodrik writes:  The belief that boosting equality requires sacrificing economic efficiency is grounded in one of the most cherished ideas in economics: incentives. Firms and individuals need the prospect of higher incomes to save, invest, work hard, and innovate. If taxation of profitable firms and rich households blunts those prospects, the result is reduced effort and lower economic growth. Communist countries, where egalitarian experiments led to economic disaster, long served as “Exhibit A” in the case against redistributive policies.

In recent years, however, neither economic theory nor empirical evidence has been kind to the presumed tradeoff. Economists have produced new arguments showing why good economic performance is not only compatible with distributive fairness, but may even demand it.  In high-inequality societies, where poor households are deprived of economic and educational opportunities, economic growth is depressed. Then there are the Scandinavian countries, where egalitarian policies evidently have not stood in the way of economic prosperity.

Early this year, economists at the International Monetary Fund produced empirical results that seemed to upend the old consensus. They found that greater equality is associated with faster subsequent medium-term growth, both across and within countries.
Moreover, redistributive policies did not appear to have any detrimental effects on economic performance. We can have our cake, it seems, and eat it, too.
Economics is a science that can claim to have uncovered few, if any, universal truths. Like almost everything else in social life, the relationship between equality and economic performance is likely to be contingent rather than fixed, depending on the deeper causes of inequality and many mediating factors. So the emerging new consensus on the harmful effects of inequality is as likely to mislead as the old one was.
Consider, for example, the relationship between industrialization and inequality. In a poor country where the bulk of the workforce is employed in traditional agriculture, the rise of urban industrial opportunities is likely to produce inequality, at least during the early stages of industrialization. As farmers move to cities and earn higher pay, income gaps open up. And yet this is the same process that produces economic growth; all successful developing countries have gone through it.
In China, for example, rapid economic growth after the late 1970s was associated with a significant rise in inequality. Roughly half of the increase was the result of urban-rural earnings gaps, which also acted as the engine of growth.
Or consider transfer policies that tax the rich and the middle classes in order to increase the income of poor households. Many countries in Latin America, such as Mexico and Bolivia, undertook such policies in a fiscally prudent manner, ensuring that government deficits would not lead to high debt and macroeconomic instability.
On the other hand, Venezuela’s aggressive redistributive transfers under Hugo Chávez and his successor, Nicolás Maduro, were financed by temporary oil revenues, placing both the transfers and macroeconomic stability at risk. Even though inequality has been reduced in Venezuela (for the time being), the economy’s growth prospects have been severely weakened.
Latin America is the only world region where inequality has declined since the early 1990s. Improved social policies and increased investment in education have been substantial factors. But the decline in the pay differential between skilled and unskilled workers – what economists call the “skill premium” – has also played an important role. Whether this is good news or bad for economic growth depends on why the skill premium has fallen.
If pay differentials have narrowed because of an increase in the relative supply of skilled workers, we can be hopeful that declining inequality in Latin America will not stand in the way of faster growth (and may even be an early indicator of it). But if the underlying cause is the decline in demand for skilled workers, smaller differentials would suggest that the modern, skill-intensive industries on which future growth depends are not expanding sufficiently.
In the advanced countries, the causes of rising inequality are still being debated. Automation and other technological changes, globalization, weaker trade unions, erosion of minimum wages, financialization, and changing norms about acceptable pay gaps within enterprises have all played a role, with different weights in the United States relative to Europe.  While technological progress clearly fosters growth, the rise of finance since the 1990s has probably had an adverse effect, via financial crises and the accumulation of debt.

It is good that economists no longer regard the equality-efficiency tradeoff as an iron law. We should not invert the error and conclude that greater equality and better economic performance always go together. After all, there really is only one universal truth in economics: It depends.

Inequality

Overeducated Chinese?

John Morgan and Bin Wu write:  The number of university students in China, including those in part-time higher adult education, expanded from 12.3m students in 2000 to 34.6m in 2013. China has become an exceptional example of increasing access for students to higher education – but this expansion has also been accompanied by some unexpected and even negative consequences.

The annual number of graduates is expected to reach 7.27m in 2014.  The challenge is to find them appropriate jobs, especially as the supply of over-educated graduates exceeds labour market demand.

The unevenness of China’s economic and social development over the past three decades has created a stratified scoiety which has had a major impact on educational inequality.

The renewal of higher education was a key part of Deng Xiaoping’s development strategy, begun in 1978, to open China to the world. State control was maintained and the universities continued to serve the policy requirements of the Communist Party.

Yet gradual adjustments were made. A high value was placed on scientific knowledge, innovation and the application of research, compared with traditional Chinese knowledge. University curricular were de-politicised and direct political control over student recruitment and behaviour was relaxed.

In contrast with the Maoist era, the most significant change has been that universities are now essentially centres for the production of elites in the manner of similar institutions in capitalist economies. The possession of university credentials is now emphasised as a key criterion for recruitment or promotion in both the public sector and in the emerging private sector.

In the late 1990s, China’s higher education system entered a new era, with the introduction of a new set of policies focused on developing world-class universities.

These led to strict ranking of higher education institutions with privileged state financial support. This was followed by the devolution of responsibility for around 300 other universities to provincial governments.

The most significant change has been a funding system which has led to both an expansion of public universities and the emergence of private higher education.

These changes have taken place in the context of an economic growth which has created a highly stratified society.  Now policy programmes have aimed to increase the number of disadvantaged students accessing key universities, while state funds have been allocated to improve teaching conditions in higher education in the disadvantaged west of China.

Students from migrant workers’ families have been allowed to take the national university entrance examination at their place of residence rather than at their place of family origin. There has also been improved state financial support for students from poor families alongside promotion of entrepreneurship to enhance employment prospects.

The dilemma faced by Chinese higher education officials is how to build both world-class universities and a system that meets the needs of the Chinese people.

Chinese Universities

MIT Scientists: We Can Do It!

Three female computer scientsts at MIT offer to asnwer questions.  They are doctoral candidates at MIT’s largest department, the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence laboraoty.  They say, “As computer science PhD students, we were interested in fielding questions about programming, academia, MIT CSAIL, and how we got interested in the subject in the first place. As three of the few women in our department and as supporters of women pursuing STEM [Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics], we also wanted to let people know that we were interested in answering questions about what it is like to be women in a male-dominated field. We decided to actively highlight the fact that we were three female computer scientists doing an AMA, to serve as role models in a field that’s less than 20 percent female.”

They conitnue: As it turned out, people were extremely interested in our AMA, though some not for the reasons we expected. Within an hour, the thread had rocketed to the Reddit front page, with hundreds of thousands of pageviews and more than 4,700 comments. But to our surprise, the most common questions were about why our gender was relevant at all. Some people wondered why we did not simply present ourselves as “computer scientists.” Others questioned if calling attention to gender perpetuated sexism. Yet others felt that we were taking advantage of the fact that we were women to get more attention for our AMA.

The interactions in the AMA itself showed that gender does still matter. Many of the comments and questions illustrated how women are often treated in male-dominated STEM fields. Commenters interacted with us in a way they would not have interacted with men, asking us about our bra sizes, how often we “copy male classmates’ answers,” and even demanding we show our contributions “or GTFO [Get The **** Out]”. One redditor helpfully called out the double standard, saying, “Don’t worry guys – when the male dog groomer did his AMA (where he specifically identified as male), there were also dozens of comments asking why his sex mattered. Oh no, wait, there weren’t.”

As for the question of whether we brought this treatment upon ourselves by mentioning our two X chromosomes, it is well known people give women on the internet a hard time whether they call attention to their gender or not. And as one redditor says, “Gender neutrality and a push for equal rights is prevalent precisely because men and women have fought for it to become a topic of discussion.”

The dynamics of our AMA reflects gender issues that lead to disparities in who chooses to pursue careers in STEM fields. People treat girls and boys differently from an early age, giving them different feedback and expectations. There is strong evidence that American culture discourages even girls who demonstrate exceptional talent from pursuing STEM disciplines.

We made gender an explicit issue in the AMA to engage our audience in a discussion about both the existing problems and potential solutions.

This is how change happens. Though we were surprised by the sheer amount of sexist and undermining comments. We hope to help women and other minorities feel more supported pursuing careers in STEM. We won’t keep quiet. You can keep asking us anything.

Why Not?

Pink Tide Rises in Latin America

Across Latin America the pink tide continues to rise.  As opposed to red, pinks relfect more moderate socialist ideas.  Leaders eschew pro-market, free-trade-policies such as privitization and deregulaion.  Anti-poverty policies are the cornerstone of the movement.

When Hugo Chavez died last year, some said pink tide would fade. Since then, Dilma Rousseff fended off a strong challenge in Brazil and in Bolivia Ewa Morales easily won a third time of office.

Leftist politicians have been so popular that more conservative politicians have to move to the center to stay in contention.  Efforts to overturn social security programs have been abandoned.

Extension of term limits in some countries has caused democrats to cry foul.  Some left leaders are accused of not leaning left enough.  Mr. Morales is critisized for supporting a market economy.

Tabare Vasquez victory in Uruguay shows that after 16 years the Pink Tide is still rising.

Swedish Women Against Putin

Nathalie Rothschild writes: Everywhere one looks on the eastern fringes of Europe, the Russian bear menaces. From Ukraine to Estonia, Russian troops are either engaged in outright warfare or testing the borders of Russia’s neighbors. In Sweden and Finland, Russian planes and vessels are prodding at coastal defenses. Nordic defense officials now speak of a fundamentally altered security environment in the Baltics.

There is a measure of the surreal to these developments and Sweden’s response to them. When in October Swedish forces hunted what was all but certainly a Russian submarine in the Stockholm archipelago, Swedish media dispatched reporters into dinghies, where they breathlessly tried to intuit news in the movement of naval vessels. And when Sverker Göranson, the supreme commander of Sweden’s armed forces, went before the media last month to present concrete evidence that a submarine had violated his country’s territorial waters, a Russian newspaper responded by calling the officer “unmanly.”  Swedish Women and Putin

Swedish Foreign Minister Speaks Up

Is Turkey A Bad Place for Women?

Yüksel Sezgin writes:  On Nov. 24, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced at a women’s rights conference that he did not believe in gender equality because it contradicted the laws of nature.

Turkey before the 2002 election of the AKP was no feminist utopia. In 2001, under the rule of a secular coalition government led by the social democrat Bulent Ecevit, Turkey ranked only 81 out of 175 countries in the United Nations Development Program’s Gender-related Development Index, which measures the gender gap in human development in terms of health, education and income. Turkey lagged behind not only the Western European democracies but also such Muslim-majority states as Saudi Arabia (68), Lebanon (70), Jordan (75) and Tunisia (76). Similarly, according to the UNDP’s 2001 Gender Empowerment Measure.

In pre-AKP Turkey, about one in 10 women in the east lived in polygamous marriages (despite the prohibition of polygamy since 1926), and about 200 girls and women every year were killed by close relatives in the name of protecting “family honor.” In July 2001, the social democratic-led coalition government passed a regulation requiring female nursing students to undergo virginity tests before being admitted into their studies.

The first AKP government under Erdogan’s premiership was actually cause for some hope among many Turkish women. In 2004, Erdogan’s government passed a new penal code.  It criminalized marital rape, eliminated the old penal code’s patriarchal and gender-biased language and imposed a number of measures to prevent sentence reductions traditionally granted by Turkish courts to perpetrators of honor crimes.

Despite these positive legislative initiatives, things have not improved on the ground. Indeed, Turkey has become one of the worst countries in terms of violence against women.

Nor has economic growth offered significant improvements. According to the UNDP, Turkey’s GDP per capita income (in 2011 purchasing power parity terms) rose from $13,090 in 2000 to $18,167 in 2012. In other words, there was about a 39 percent increase in per capita income over a period of 12 years – the last 10 years of which were under AKP rule. According to the World Economic Forum’s Gender Gap Index, in 2013 Turkey ranked 123 out of 136 countries in terms of women’s participation in the labor force.

On the same index, Turkey ranked 103 in terms of women’s political empowerment.

According to the UNDP, economic expansion did not translate into better health and education opportunities for Turkish women. In 2002, Turkey ranked 70 out of 169 countries on UNDP’s GDI. In 2007, about five years after AKP came to power, Turkey was still 70 on the GDI index, even though its rank on the Human Development Index improved from 88 to 79 over the same period. In 2008 on UNDP’s Gender Inequality Index (GII, a composite index that replaced the earlier GDI and GEM) Turkey ranked 77, while in 2013 it ranked 69 out of 187 countries. Over the same period, Turkey’s HDI rank also improved from 83 to 69. Despite an overall increase in income and access to education and health care, the Turkish government has largely failed to improve the status of women and reduce persisting gender inequalities, especially with respect to women’s participation in the labor force and political empowerment.

While this sorry record reflects poorly on the AKP governments, it should not be used to forget the long history of struggles for Turkish women. Turkey was one of the worse places in the world to be a woman before the AKP, and it still is today.

Turkish Women

Kirchner Not Singing for Argentina

Cristina Fernanez de Kirchner has a 30% approval rating in Argentina, but people protest corruption, runaway inflation, and crime more than they protest her.  She cannot run again for President net year.

Argentina’s economy has been suffering from a combination of global slowdown, an a series of self-inflicted wounds: exchange controls and debt defaults.

Unemployment rates are higher than the 7% reported.  Inflation has soared to 41 percent this year. In real terms, wages are lower.  Car sales have plummeted.

The threat of social turmoil coninues.  Police officers and school tachers strike.

The next step is a January meeting with creditors.  And after that, the elections in October, where everyone looks better than Kirchner right now.   The popular mayor of Buenos Aires is running.  He is pro market and in favor of a global presence and good trading relatiions with neighbors.

Mrs. Kirchner does not make women leaders look good.

Kirchner

Women Twice as Likely As Men to Suffer from Poverty in Asia

Women make up two-thirds of Asia’s poor, according to the UNDP, which means that women are twice as likely as men to suffer from poverty. And poverty is continuing to rise among Asia’s women, not only because they have lower incomes, but because of discriminatory attitudes which result in lower capabilities and opportunities. Asia has one of the world’s worst gender gaps, with Africa being the only continent behind it, based on a combination of indicators covering economic participation, educational attainment, health and survival, and political empowerment. Asia is the worst region in the world for women’s health and survival relative to that of men.

In short, the benefits of Asia’s very rapid growth are not being shared in the region. And naturally the adverse situation of Asia’s women trickles down to many children, except for a family’s eldest son who is usually spoiled rotten. Child poverty is a particularly important issue in countries like Laos, Mongolia, the Philippines and Vietnam where one-third or more of the population are children.

It may seem surprising that the state of poverty is not so rosy in Asia. Many Western tourists are dazzled by the bright lights of Shanghai, Singapore, Hong Kong and Bangalore. But poverty is substantially a rural phenomenon in Asia, with more than half of Asia’s population living in the countryside.

The rural poor represent over three-quarters of Asia’s total poor population. Many of the rural poor are subsistence producers, family farmers or landless agricultural producers. And the poverty of urban slums is usually hidden away from tourists, despite the new fad of “slum tourism” in cities like Mumbai and Jakarta. To reduce rural poverty requires improving agricultural productivity, rural infrastructure, and access to social services. Poverty in Asia

Poverty in Asia