Is the Beetle Over?

Can VW survive emissions manipulation scandal?

Volkswagen AG’s designated Chairman Hans Dieter Poetsch warned managers that the diesel-emissions scandal could pose “an existence-threatening crisis for the company.”

The German carmaker faces a Wednesday deadline to present a plan to fix some 2.8 million vehicles in its home market.

Volkswagen and German industry have been rocked by charges, first made by U.S. regulators on Sept. 18, that the carmaker had used software to hoodwink regulators about the true emissions of its diesel cars for years. As owners of 11 million affected cars across the globe, regulators and investors await answers, the crisis has wiped out almost 30 billion euros ($34 billion) of the company’s value.

 

After mostly remaining silent on the cheating scandal, ChancellorAngela Merkel on Sunday called the disclosure by Germany’s largest carmaker “a dramatic event” and said Volkswagen must clarify the affair swiftly. She ruled out a longer-term impact on the country’s industry.

An internal investigation has already yielded several engineers who admitted to installing the fraudulent software in 2008 for EA 189 diesel-motor models. The result was a so-called defeat device that disengaged emissions controls when an auto wasn’t being tested, breaching emissions rules and prompting a raft of government investigations and lawsuits since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency cited the violations last month.

Volkswagen has also found more executives are involved in the scandal than previously acknowledged.

The manipulated software may have been put into parts supplied by Hanover, Germany-based Continental AG for 1.6-liter engines.  Upgrading models with Continental parts would entail replacement parts, not just a software upgrade, Bild said.

Another engine-parts supplier, Robert Bosch GmbH, warned VW in 2007 that its planned use of the software was illegal.

In contrast with Merkel, European Parliament President Martin Schulz, a German Social Democrat, said the scandal is a “grave blow for the German economy as a whole.”

VW Emissions Deceit

Is Systematic Investing Safer?

Robin Wigglesworth writes: Since the bruising losses of the financial crisis investors have sought out novel and complex ways to play markets more safely. Many have increasingly turned to computer-driven “systematic” investment strategies that aim to maximise returns while mitigating risks — whatever the market conditions.

The attractions are understandable. Many traditional fund managers’ investment returns have consistently underperformed, though this has not diminished their hefty fees. This has burnished the appeal of the systematic investment industry, the creation of a new generation of scientist asset managers who use complex algorithms to beat the market. Freed from the shackles of human bias and slow reaction, their funds harness computer power to constantly and automatically exploit millions of minuscule investment opportunities, using sophisticated risk management tools that aim to tame volatility rather than be terrorized by it.   Systematic Investing

Computer trading

SEC Insists on Compliance in Bond Offerings

Matt Levine comments on the trend to file required financial documents when municipalities issue bonds:

The SEC found that between 2010 and 2014, the 22 underwriting firms violated federal securities laws by selling municipal bonds using offering documents that contained materially false statements or omissions about the bond issuers’ compliance with continuing disclosure obligations. The SEC also found that the underwriting firms failed to conduct adequate due diligence to identify the misstatements and omissions before offering and selling the bonds to their customers.

Sampling the individual settlements brings up a lot of due diligence errorslike this:

Respondent acted as either a senior or sole underwriter in a municipal securities offering in which the official statement essentially represented that the issuer or obligated person had not failed to comply in all material respects with any previous continuing disclosure undertakings. In fact, certain of these statements were materially false and/or misleading because the issuer or obligated person had not complied in all material respects with its previous continuing disclosure undertakings. The offering in which the official statement contained false or misleading statements about prior compliance was

  • A 2011 negotiated securities offering in which an issuer failed to disclose that it filed an audited financial report on the MSRB’s Electronic Municipal Market Access system 499 days late, and failed to file the required notice of late filing.

That is: Municipalities issue bonds. When they do that, they promise to file current financial statements in a publicly accessible way. Sometimes — quite frequently, it seems — they forget to do that, or stop doing it, or whatever explains being a year and a half late with the financials. Then they want to issue new bonds. As part of issuing the new bonds, they again promise to file current financial statements, and also promise that they’ve never been late on their financials in the past. Even though in fact they have been 499 days late on their financials in the past. And somehow neither the issuer, nor the underwriters, nor the buyers of the bonds notice that this isn’t true.

That is an obvious failing of due diligence and the underwriters should definitely be in trouble. But I’m kind of more worried about the fact that the municipality here was 499 days late on its filings, and no one noticed, or at least, no one cared enough that it was hard to sell the bonds in the future. And there are lots of cases like this; here’s one with an issuer who “filed three annual financial reports which were between two and 50 months late.” One gets the rather strong impression that no one is reading these filings, and that the whole disclosure system for issuing municipal bonds might be more or less ignored.

by William Haefell, The New Yorker

by William Haefell, The New Yorker

Can Media Reports Constitute Insider Trading?

When can a media company be considered a dispenser of “inside trading information?”

Matt Levine writes:   This Wall Street Journal article begins “A high-profile investigation into a leak of sensitive information from the Federal Reserve in 2012 has escalated to an insider-trading probe led by a key market surveillance agency and federal prosecutors in Manhattan, according to people familiar with the matter,” and it is always fun to wonder who those people are. I suppose it is possible that they work for the target of the probe, “macro policy intelligence” firm Medley Global Advisors, but that seems unlikely; later in the article a Medley spokesman is quoted on the record. So that leaves … the investigators? Leaking news about their investigation into leaks of news? The irony is compounded by the fact that this investigation is into information about Fed deliberations that were apparently leaked to Medley only after they were leaked to the Journal:

The important details of the Fed’s internal deliberations at the September meetings were supposed to be disclosed by the Fed in early October.

Before that happened, The Wall Street Journal published a story reporting that Fed officials at the September meeting were considering further action to stimulate the economy. The Sept. 28 story said there was a “strong possibility” the Fed would begin purchasing large amounts of Treasury bonds.

The next week, Medley sent a research note to its clients saying with more certainty that the Fed was “likely to vote as early as its December meeting” to begin monthly purchases of $45 billion worth of Treasury bonds.

Medley is fighting the investigation on the grounds that it is a media organization, and publishing news can’t really qualify as insider trading. Medley, though, is the sort of media organization that sells expensive subscriptions to fewer subscribers (who trade on it) rather than cheaper subscriptions to more subscribers (who are entertained and enlightened by it). This seems like a hard line to police: The Wall Street Journal, which apparently got this leak before Medley did, also charges for subscriptions. How many subscribers do you need, or how cheap must your subscription be, to qualify as a media organization?

Insider Trading

Did Marc Rich Tutor Glencore?

Thomas Biesheuvel, Eddie van der Walt and Jesse Riseborough write:  Ivan Glasenberg is running out of luck.  The South African-born accountant, whose Glencore Plc rode the China-fueled boom in commodities the past 10 years like no one else, is emerging as the most prominent casualty of the bust.

The descent has been so swift that many investors are now wondering where it will end. As Glencore’s share price plunged by almost a third, bringing its losses since March to 76 percent, the credit markets registered mounting worries about its debt load: Its bonds tumbled and derivatives traders started demanding upfront payments to protect against a default by the company, the first time that’s happened since 2009.

While traders were at a loss to identify the catalyst for Monday’s rout, the underlying reasons have remained constant: commodity prices are too low, Glencore’s debt is too high and growth in China, the engine that drove prices for everything from copper to coal to oil is the weakest it’s been in a quarter century.

In recent weeks, Glencore has sought to reassure investors by promising to prepare its finances for any doomsday scenario.

At its height in 2014, Glencore was worth more than $85 billion after its $29 billion all-share takeover of Xstrata Plc, then the world’s biggest coal exporter. Even as recently as August 2014, Glasenberg made an approach to buy Rio Tinto Group, the second-biggest miner. That was rebuffed. As of Monday in London, Rio’s market capitalization was $59 billion, almost four times Glencore’s.

Glencore, based in Zug, Switzerland, trades everything from wheat to oil to cobalt. It’s the world’s biggest exporter of power-station coal, with more than 30 mines in Australia, Colombia and South Africa and is among the top three agricultural exporters in Russia, the European Union, Canada and Australia. The company controls more than 150 mining and metallurgical, oil production and agricultural assets and employs about 180,000 people.

For all that, Investec Plc, an investment bank, said Monday that there would be little left for shareholders should low prices persist. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said last week that Glencore’s steps to reduce debt and bolster its balance sheet were inadequate.

Glasenberg, a former coal trader, honed his skills over more than 30 years in the commodity trading business since he joined a predecessor firm, Marc Rich & Co., in 1984. He was part of a $1.2 billion management buyout from Rich in 1994, which saw the company renamed Glencore. The 2011 IPO made him a billionaire on paper with his stake worth almost $10 billion.

Glasenberg has also been one of the industry’s most outspoken figures, railing against rivals for oversupplying the market and saying fellow executives had “screwed up” by

building too many mines. He has also taken the lead on trying to remedy the problem, cutting output at its Australian coal mines and saying last month that it would close copper mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia that account for about 2.2 percent of global supply.

Glencore’s rivals haven’t been left unscathed. In London trading, BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, has fallen 26 percent this year, while Rio Tinto has declined 30 percent. Anglo American Plc, which like Glencore is highly leveraged, has slumped 53 percent. The Bloomberg World Mining Index of producers has shed 32 percent this year.

Glencore announced a debt-cutting program earlier this month in an attempt to reduce the company’s borrowings to $20 billion from $30 billion. The company has also has hired Citigroup Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG to sell a minority stake in its agricultural business, a person familiar with the situation said Friday.

David-Simonds-shareholder-010

 

Is Long Term Equity the Best Risk Protection?

Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo spoke about “Capital Regulation Across Financial Intermediaries”:

The scope and nature of a firm’s liabilities provide the justifications for capital requirements regulation. Differences in liabilities can, accordingly, sometimes warrant different capital requirements for portfolios of similar assets across firms. At the risk of packing too much into these introductory points, let me also note that an emphasis on a firm’s liabilities is related to, but not synonymous with, an emphasis on its activities. Thus, for example, simply deciding that an intermediary provides mostly commercial banking services or insurance products does not fully answer the question of what its capital requirements should be.

There is a lot here, including on prudential regulation of asset managers, but I particularly liked this:

When concerns are raised about regulatory arbitrage or a level playing field, they are usually in the context of a similar asset being held, or a business activity conducted, by financial firms with different regulatory structures. My discussion today would suggest that attention must be paid to the liability structure of the different firms before deciding whether the asymmetric regulatory treatment is prudent or an invitation to the propagation of new financial risks.

This is it seems to me the core question of financial regulation. There are assets. They are risky; they might go down in value. Someone bears the risk of those assets. If regulation tends to push that risk into entities that are funded with short-term debt from investors who expect it to be money-good, that leads to potential crises. If regulation tends to push that risk into entities with long-term equity-like funding from investors who knowingly bear the risk, that is the best it can do. You can’t get rid of risk, but you should try as much as possible to keep it from being funded by short-term debt with no capital buffers.  Tartullo Speech

Long term Equity?

Honest Mistakes Encouraged at UBS?

Last week the chief executive of UBS told all the bankers who work for him that henceforth UBS chief says it is ok to make honest mistakes.
A culture in which everyone was petrified of taking risks, Sergio Ermotti said, was not in the interests of the bank or its clients.

How mature, came the response. How refreshing to hear a bank chief acknowledge that risks need to be taken and honest mistakes will sometimes be made.

The point is that “This mistake-loving nonsense is an export from Silicon Valley, where ‘fail fast and fail often’ is what passes for wisdom,” but that it is inappropriate in the banking context. Tech is an industry of moving fast and breaking things. Finance is an industry of moving fast, breaking things, being mired in years of litigation, paying 10-digit fines, and ruefully promising to move slower and break fewer things in the future.”

Of course there’s a reason that Ermotti said what he said. A workplace culture of experimenting, taking risks, being unafraid to try new things, not being harshly penalized for messing up is nicer than one of zero-tolerance striving for boring perfection. That’s why people want to work at tech startups and are less keen on working at banks these days. Regulators want to turn banks into utilities — boring and mistake-free — but the bankers look back on their mistakes with nostalgia.

Deutsche Bank prepared to fire traders for Libor manipulation. “Thank you for making yourself available for this call today,” it begins, and then “We have decided that your employment agreement should be terminated with immediate effect by reason of your gross misconduct,” which is the way to do it. Rip the band-aid right off; don’t mince any words about exactly how gross the misconduct was.

UBS Honest Mistakes

Who Dares: Petit, Gordon-Levitt, Snowden?

What does it take to do the impossible?  To step up and take on an enterprise that is way beyond most people’s imagination?

A new movie about Steve Jobs in opening soon in the US.  WIll the movie capture Jobs particular genius of anticipating what his market wants before they know they want it?

In the meanwhile, Robert Zemeckis’ The Walk, opened the New York Film Festival.  It captures the daring spirit in a beautifully moving and incomparably arresting rendition of the story of Philippe Petit, who walked a hire wire between the two towers of the World Center before it opened in 1974.

A part of the ultimately indescribable Zemeckis’ genius is his willingness to tell the story of one person and imbed it in a thrilling, grand visual adventure.  Ten years ago, Zemeckis said he would only make films in 3D from now on.  Yet he does not adopt the form as a hokey was of drawing an audience in.  He extends the emotional experience with his digital visualizations.

Walking a high wire 100 stories above New York City is a terrifying, mind-blowing experience the filmmaker and artist generously share with the audience.  Audiences weep and vomit.  One member of Petit’s team has the fear of heights many of us share, and somehow his experience helps us get through this quiet roller coaster ride.

We were interested to read that Joseph Gordon Levitt, the actor who plays Petit, thinks that Edward Snowden, the whistleblower who revealed the National Security Agency’s transgressions, has that same daring spirit.  Gordon-Levitt met with Snowden while he was in Russia.  He will appear as Snowden in a 2016 film by Oliver Stone.  Hollywood may be the best whistleblower we have.

Go see this extraordinary Walk, and contemplate what it takes to boldly take on the world.

Walking the Walk

 

 

 

Does Saying I’m Sorry Mean Anything?

Harold James writes:  So far, the Volkswagen scandal has played out according to a well-worn script. Revelations of disgraceful corporate behavior emerge (in this case, the German automaker’s programming of 11 million diesel vehicles to turn on their engines’ pollution-control systems only when undergoing emissions testing). Executives apologize. Some lose their jobs. Their successors promise to change the corporate culture. Governments prepare to levy enormous fines. Life goes on.

This scenario has become a familiar one, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis. Banks and other financial institutions have enacted it repeatedly, even as successive scandals continued to erode confidence in the entire industry. Those cases, together with Volkswagen’s “clean diesel” scam, should give us cause to rethink our approach to corporate malfeasance.

Promises of better behavior are clearly not enough, as the seemingly endless number of scandals in the financial industry has shown. As soon as regulators had dealt with one case of market manipulation, another emerged.

The trouble with the banking industry is that it is built on a principle that creates incentives for bad behavior. Banks know more about market conditions (and the likelihood of their loans being repaid) than their depositors do. This secrecy lies at the heart of financial activity. Polite analysts call it “management of information.” Critics consider it a form of insider dealing.

Banks are also uniquely vulnerable to scandal because many of their employees are simultaneously behaving in ways that could influence the reputation, and even the balance sheet, of the entire firm. In the 1990s, a single Singapore-based trader brought down the venerable Barings Bank. In 2004, Citigroup’s Japanese private bank was shut down after a trader rigged the government bond market. At JPMorgan Chase, a single trader – known as “the London Whale” – cost the company $6.2 billion.

What these repeated scandals show is that apologies are little more than words, and that talk about changing the corporate culture is usually meaningless. As long as the incentives remain the same, so will the culture.

The Volkswagen case is a useful reminder that corporate wrongdoing is not confined to the banking industry. There were incentives in the automobile industry to game the system. Everyone knows that actual fuel economy does not correspond to the numbers on the showroom sticker, which are generated by tests carried out with the wind blowing from behind or on a particularly smooth road surface. Anyone who has stood next to a diesel vehicle could tell that it was smellier than cars powered by gasoline.

There are two important similarities between the scandals in the finance industry and at Volkswagen. The first is that large corporations, whether banks or manufacturers, are deeply embedded in national politics, with elected officials dependent on such firms for job creation and tax revenues.

The second similarity is that both industries are subject to multiple regulatory objectives. Regulators may want banks to be safer, but they also want them to lend more to the real economy.

The regulation of automobile emissions faces a similar problem. As regulators’ focus turned toward limiting global warming, there were tremendous incentives to manufacture vehicles that produced fewer greenhouse-gas emissions,

As the Volkswagen crisis so vividly illustrates, we need more than corporate apology and regulatory wrist slapping. It is time for a sustained discussion about how to craft regulations that provide the proper incentives to achieve the objectives we truly desire: economic and social wellbeing. It is only when that discussion takes place that we will get the banks, cars, and other goods and services that we want.

Does Saying I'm Sorry Mean Anything?

Admati: Realistic Banking Policies?

Dean Starkman writes”  Anat Admati, a professor of finance and economics at Stanford’s business school, is an unlikely player in Washington, D.C.’s financial-reform scene.

The 58-year-old Israeli-born economist arrived at Stanford in 1983 with an interest in mainstream financial issues and a firm belief that markets — with their unique ability to assign a price to risk and channel capital to its most efficient use — were a powerful force for good.

The 2008 financial crisis upended that faith. She turned her gaze to the industry at the center of the crisis: banking.

Admati made waves on the national financial-reform scene in 2013 with the book “The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong With Banking and What to Do About It,” co-authored with economist and banking expert Martin Hellwig.

She argues that requiring banks to rely more on shareholders’ money instead of borrowing funds would increase stability, harness market forces to deter risky behavior and lead to a smaller, safer system as banks pulled back on bets that didn’t make financial sense.

Her arguments have drawn fierce pushback from the banking industry, but got the attention of financial policymakers.   Dean Starkman Interviews Anat Admati

Bankers' New Clothes