Subprime Mortgage Crisis Revisted on Film

Will US citizens wake up when they see the new film, “The Big Short,” which describes the origins of the subprime mortgage crisis?

The mortgage crisis as primarily the fault of mortgage originators and mortgage securitization financiers, aided and abetted by the executives of the largest banks.  At the heart of this story is a court case in California where the defense successfully proved financial fraud was not committed by mortgagors induced by mortgage issuers to sign “lairs loans” paper work.  Why? Because they were compensated for writing mortgages and securitizing them, not for the quality of the mortgages for repayment.  The perverse incentives built into the system created the crisis.  The “liars” were often victims of a Pied Piper system to which they were susceptible because of their financial naivety.

he securitization process put purely junk mortgages into AAA-rated securities based on the assumption that only 1% (the historical limit) would default.  When several times that previous limit occurred AAA-rated securities defaulted.

mortgage-default-rate-history

US Court Says Online Fantasy Sports Gambling

A decision came down supporting NY State’s case against the fantasy sports business.  As with many aspects of the new economy and technology active in areas where the ordinary citizen has an opportunity to invest for profit or loss, we wonder where lines are drawn.

Under New York Penal Law 225.00, “gambling” is defined as the staking or risking of something of value on the outcome of either (1) “a contest of chance,” or (2) “a future contingent event not under [that person’s] control or influence,” each with the agreement or understanding that the person will receive something of value in the event of a certain outcome. (At least eight other states employ the same test: Alabama, Alaska, Hawaii, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Oregon and Washington.)

This definition sets forth two separate categories of gambling: (1) wagering on a “contest of chance,” and (2) wagering on the outcome of a “future contingent event” over which the bettor has no “control or influence.” The latter of these two categories is not dependent on a “skill vs. chance” assessment, but, rather, looks to whether an alleged bettor can “control” or “influence” the outcome of the “future contingent event.”

The statute, however, does not define these words. But the plain meaning of the words “control” and “influence” would seem to connote being able to have an “impact” or an “effect” on the event itself, which brings us back to the ultimate question: What is the “future contingent event” in a DFS contest? Is it the real-world sporting event or events on which scoring is based? Or is it the DFS contest itself?

Online Gambing

Too Big to Jail? Jail the Little Guys?

Bankers too big to jail, so jail the small players?

Matt Levine writes: Richard Choo-Beng Lee, who cooperated with prosecutors in their long-running investigation of insider trading at and around SAC Capital Advisors, was sentenced to 21 days in jail, which is not a particularly long sentence as insider-trading sentences go, but which was still rather a shock to him since other insider-trading cooperators have normally avoided prison. I guess now that the Newman decision has more or less killed thehedge-fund-insider-trading crackdown, there is less reason to make cooperation appealing.

In related news, “The Securities and Exchange Commission’s case against hedge fund billionaire Steven Cohen is moving forward again, after prosecutors Monday withdrew their request for a two-year freeze imposed while they pursued criminal insider trading charges against his employees.” That case is a civil failure-to-supervise case connected with insider trading, and one fact that may be relevant to SAC’s supervisory culture is that Richard Choo-Beng Lee is one of two SAC Capital traders named Richard Lee who pled guilty to insider trading and cooperated with the government.

Meanwhile in England, poor Tom Hayes is appealing his barbaric 14-year prison sentence for Libor manipulation. “Hayes ‘Didn’t Invent’ Libor Rigging, Lawyer Says in Appeal Fight,” is the Bloomberg headline, and while I am sympathetic, no one appeals a murder sentence on the grounds that he didn’t invent murder.

In Switzerland, Hervé Falciani, a former HSBC private bank employee who leaked secret documents led to revelations “that HSBC’s Swiss banking arm turned a blind eye to illegal activities of arms dealers and helped wealthy people evade taxes,” was sentenced to five years in prison for his troubles. “He is currently living in France, where he sought refuge from Swiss justice, and did not attend the trial.”

And in Brazil, is Andre Esteves too big to jail? I mean, he’s in jail, but that is creating nervousness at his investment bank, BTG Pactual, and in the Brazilian financial system more generally.

Too Big to Jail

Bank Equity Requirements Up. Size of Banks May Be Up Too

Equity requirements upped for banks and questions about the size of banks subject to US Fed regulation.

The largest U.S. banks would face a $120 billion total shortfall of long-term debt under a Federal Reserve proposal aimed at ensuring their failure wouldn’t hurt the broader financial system.

Banks such as Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. will be required to hold enough debt that could be converted into equity if they were to falter, according to a Fed rule that was approved by a unanimous vote on Friday. The Fed’s proposal, which applies to eight of the biggest U.S. banks, requires debt and a capital cushion equal to at least 16 percent of risk-weighted assets by 2019 and 18 percent by 2022.

Ian Katz writes: The broad strokes of the proposal, including the lengthy phase-in period and the 18 percent target instead of what some bankers thought could be as high as 20 percent, are easier than many in the industry expected.

The proposal, along with other measures regulators have taken to avoid chaotic bank failures, “would substantially reduce the risk to taxpayers and the threat to financial stability stemming from the failure of these firms,” Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a statement. The plan “is another important step in addressing the ‘too big to fail’ problem,” she said.

The rule on total loss-absorbing capacity, or TLAC, is a key part of regulators’ efforts to avoid another financial crisis. If U.S. banks were to fail, investors in their stock would lose everything, but the debt would be converted into equity in a new, reconstituted bank under the plan. It’s an element of the so-called living wills banks must submit to the Fed and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. each year to map out their hypothetical demise.

The reason for the provision: When a bank fails, regulators want it to have a war chest to fund a new, healthy version of the company — hopefully without a dime from taxpayers.

Wells Fargo had been perceived as facing the toughest road under the rule because of its reliance on deposits rather than debt.

Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at Guggenheim Securities LLC, said in a research note that the Fed “passed up several opportunities to be even more onerous.”

The Financial Stability Board, a group of global regulators that makes recommendations to the Group of 20 nations, plans to phase in a TLAC rule requiring long-term debt of at least 16 percent of risk-weighted assets starting in 2019 and 18 percent by 2022.

The Fed also approved mandatory levels of minimum long-term debt, which vary depending on how large and complex the banks are.

Since the financial crisis, the Fed has consistently written rules that have been more stringent than global regulatory accords on capital and liquidity.

Banks are now subject to regulation if they have $50 billion in assets.  Banks have asked to up this to $500 billion.  The Fed set new requirements to help protect against bank failures;  “The final rule establishes a number of enhanced prudential standards for large U.S. bank holding companies and foreign banking organizations to help increase the resiliency of their operations. These standards include liquidity, risk management, and capital. It also requires a foreign banking organization with a significant U.S. presence to establish an intermediate holding company over its U.S. subsidiaries, which will facilitate consistent supervision and regulation of the U.S. operations of the foreign bank. The final rule was required by section 165 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.”  from the US Fed.

Bank Regulation?

 

Balance Between Criminal Charges in Banking and Fines?

The Rocky Road to Globalization

French companies are complaining that they pay huge fines to the US government when they do not comply with American law, but that France is not benefitting by reciprocal fines.  In the US, the policy has been to exact fines, big by the ordinary citizen’s standards, but the cost of doing business for most corporations.  There are no crimes charged.

Only when Credit Suisse was forced to plea one criminal charge as citizens and some lawmakers joined the hue and cry against big banks’ seeming immunity.  Promises made by the SEC and the Department of Justice helped the Swiss bank accept the charge.  They must have been told that the bank would not loose its 2 billion dollar pension business in the US if they pleased guilty.

US Representative Maxine Waters and Senator Elizabeth Warren demanded that the US Labor Department justify its exemption for Credit Suisse, enabling the bank to continue its pension business in the US despite its criminal status.

Hearings were held last January 15th.  Testimony about Credit Suisse’s corrupt culture was given by important people in finance around the globe.

The outcomeL  Instead of granting the ten-year exemption Credit Suisse had applied for, they were given a five-year exemption.  The criminal plea counted for almost nothing.

Do we want laws on the books that are not enforced?  Why exact a criminal plea if it is not enforced?   ANd where do these monies the government collects go?

Jail Bankers?

 

 

Fantasy Sports Gambling and the Market Not?

A hearing on the fantasy sports case mounted by the New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman ended inconclusively.

Daily fantasy sports sites FanDuel and DraftKings have always maintained that the services they offer don’t count as gambling because they’re contests of skill.  Schneiderman defines daily fantasy sports as illegal gambling under New York state law, saying that “winning or losing depends on numerous elements of chance to a ‘material degree.’” If public officials in other states agree, it could be the end of the daily fantasy sports industry in the U.S.

FanDuel and DraftKings have cited a 2006 federal law to distinguish themselves from illegal gambling. But that law explicitly defers to state definitions of what counts as betting. In most cases, states determine the legal status of contests with cash prizes by examining whether the activity is based on skill (like playing in a bowling tournament) or chance (like pulling the arm on a slot machine). Many activities are a mix of both, of course, and states have different thresholds for how much chance is acceptable before something becomes gambling. For Schneiderman, season-long fantasy sports are tolerable in part because they involve long-term strategy over several months. Daily fantasy games can turn on a single play.

New York’s standard is in the middle of the pack, according to Daniel Wallach, a sports and gaming attorney with the firm Becker & Poliakoff. Wallach says about 10 states have said games involving any amount of chance count as gambling, while about 20 states say chance must be the “predominant factor” in the outcome.

 Given New York’s influence, states with similar thresholds may follow its lead.

While the legality of daily fantasy sports turns on the skill-vs.-chance question, the cases made by both advocates and critics have a fundamental contradiction. At the same time Schneiderman argues that participating in daily fantasy sports resembles playing the lottery, he complains that a small number of top players win almost all the time. He even compares the games to poker, which many academics see as heavily skill-based. Considering that Schneiderman’s letter doesn’t weigh in on allegations of cheating, it stands to reason that some players win all the time because they’re just better than everyone else.

FanDuel and DraftKings, on the other hand, describe daily fantasy as a skill-based activity when discussing legal matters. But they push back against the idea that the success of elite players makes it less likely for less-savvy users to win.

Schneiderman raises concerns that daily fantasy sports will lead to the same kinds of public-health and economic problems that illegal gambling has caused. Potential problem gamblers are likely to be lured by “the quick rate of play, the large jackpots, and the false perception that it is eminently winnable,” Schneiderman wrote. “Ultimately, it is these types of harms that our Constitution and gambling laws were intended to prevent in New York.”

 None of these points directly address the legal standard of chance vs. skill.

 

Esteves, Better Than Goldman, Gets a CarWash

The Petrobras scandal has widened to indict Andre Esteves, who claims he is better than Goldman Sachs bankers.

The chief executive of Brazil’s largest independent investment bank and a powerful ruling party senator were arrested early Wednesday as part of an investigation into a massive corruption scandal at state-controlled oil company Petróleo Brasileiro SA.

Authorities in Brasília arrested Sen. Delcídio do Amaral, a member of the governing Workers’ Party and the Senate whip, whose help is seen as critical for President Dilma Rousseff to pass unpopular austerity measures to shore up Brazil’s shaky finances.

Prosecutors say the two men were conspiring to pay millions in bribes to a key witness in the Petrobras investigation, then spirit him out of Brazil on a private jet to prevent him from turning state’s evidence that could implicate them in the sprawling graft scheme.

The arrests were stunning even by the standards of Brazil’s biggest-ever corruption probe, which has toppled elites at the highest levels of the nation’s business and government. The developments are yet another blow to Ms. Rousseff, whose popularity has plummeted as Brazil’s economy has deteriorated and her party, known as the PT, has become mired in the scandal.

Through his attorney, Mr. Esteves denied wrongdoing. Mr. Amaral’s lawyer said his client is fighting the charges against him.

Messrs. Esteves and Amaral were taken into custody on suspicion they were trying to stop a former Petrobras executive, Nestor Cerveró, from cutting a plea bargain with prosecutors and providing testimony that would link the men with the corruption scandal, according to Brazil’s Supreme Court, which authorized the arrests.

Mr. Cerveró is accused of taking bribes in exchange for awarding supplier contracts as part of a massive graft ring that operated at Petrobras for more than a decade. Court documents portray the efforts by Messrs. Esteves and Amaral to free Mr. Cerveró from custody.

At a November meeting at an upscale Brasília hotel, Mr. Amaral met with Mr. Cerveró’s son, Bernardo Cerveró and two other men to discuss ways to free Mr. Cerveró from prison and have him flee the country, according to the documents.

According to the documents, Mr. Amaral proposed using a legal maneuver to secure Mr. Cerveró’s release from prison while he awaits trial.

Supreme Court Justice Teori Zavascki said that Mr. Amaral “is part of a criminal organization,” citing the senator’s alleged participation in “an escape plan” that could jeopardize the corruption probe known as Operation Car Wash.

The court documents didn’t expressly indicate a link between BTG and the investigation.

But Brazilian authorities have been investigating BTG’s $1.5 billion purchase of a 50% stake in the African operation of Petrobras in 2013 following allegations that the price paid the bank may have been too low.

BTG also is a major investor in troubled oil rig supplier Sete Brasil Participações SA, which also was ensnared in the Operation Car Wash investigation.

Mr. Esteves’s arrest is a dramatic setback for one the nation’s best-known financial executives. One of Brazil’s richest men, Mr. Esteves, 46, has a net worth estimated at $2.1 billion, according to Forbes.

Mr. Esteves quickly developed a reputation for innovative deal making and built BTG into Brazil´s largest independent investment bank, with 245 partners and 3,500 employees. The bank manages about $112 billion and has offices in 20 countries.

 

ISIS Elusive?

IS and its ilk are skilled recruiters, using the internet and informal networks. They can therefore rely on a steady flow of terrorists ready and willing to fight. Instead of going through a tightly controlled and highly competitive recruitment process, IS has a well-funded web and social media propaganda campaign disseminating videos of brutal violence and destruction to appeal to potential followers. It also distributes an English language magazine,.

Taking advantage of improvements in technology and transportation, the Islamic State (like al-Qaeda) contrasts with past terrorist groups that remained more domestic and nationalist. Today’s terrorist groups are transnational – European and North African recruits are incorporated into cells based in Europe and beyond. Unable to migrate to fight in Syria, they are being used to stage attacks in the countries in which they are based.

Driven by ideology, the conventional terrorist organisations of yesteryear mostly received their support from state sponsors. But today, most terrorist groups engage in organised criminal activities to keep their organisations thriving. IS has flexible and lucrative sources of funding. Most of this comes from illicit proceeds from occupying territory such as controlling banks, oil and gas reservoirs, extortion and theft of economic assets. IS also earns funds by donations from non-profits and foreign fighters.

By not relying on foreign funding, the group is not vulnerable to a sudden loss of support. Additionally, the group’s motives also mutate. Lucrative criminal opportunities motivate the group. They also provide a constant flow of funding for further attacks.

Holding territory

Occupying territory is also a something that distinguishes terrorist-hybrid organizations from terrorist groups of the past. Typically it is insurgencies that hold territories by force, whereas terrorist groups have been too weak to hold territory and must rely on a safe haven provided either passively or actively by a state sponsor.

IS holds territory roughly the size of Belgium, which it uses as a base to train its militias and conduct and plan its operations. More than 60% of its funds goes towards paying its military. By holding territory and providing services to the people who live there, it can operate more freely than groups which lack a large base for its headquarters.

Though the organization is transnational and cellular, it also has a robust organization capable of planning carefully orchestrated attacks and offering the financial and logistical support necessary to make its attacks highly deadly. The Paris attacks were too sophisticated and effective to be the work of leaderless resistance or lone-wolf terrorism. As the French prime minister, Manuel Valls, said, they were very probably planned from the top in Syria, rather than by an autonomous cell based in France.

But in spite of its unusually clear hierarchical leadership structure, simply killing IS’s top leaders and destroying its resources and supply lines will still be ineffective. The only way to deal effectively with the group will require a long-term plan of eliminating the deep sources of frustration in the region, such as government corruption, mismanagement and state violence.

Isis Power

Cutting Off ISIS Funds?

Cutting off the financing for ISIS is critical.  Mark Gilbert writes: Dr. Christina Schori Liang, a senior fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, notes in a paper for the IEP that IS (also known as ISIL or ISIS) is “the richest terrorist organization in history, with an estimated wealth of $2 billion.” IS earns about $1.5 million a day from selling oil, producing as many as 40,000 barrels per day and selling for as little as $20 a barrel. The oil is smuggled through Iraq and Kurdistan, border guards are bribed, while donkeys and trucks traverse deserts and mountain passes to avoid detection. IS has its own underground pipelines and refineries; while coalition forces had destroyed 16 mobile refineries by the end of last year, they can be rebuilt for as little as $230,000.

Its income is boosted by trafficking people and auctioning slaves, kidnapping for ransom (raising $45 million last year), extortion, taxes on income, business revenues and consumer goods in the lands it controls, as well as looting and selling antiquities. The Financial Action Task Force reckons IS stole about $500 million late last year just by raiding state-owned banks in the territories it controls. As Liang argues, “the West has so far failed to impede ISIL’s financial gains which are marked by a fluidity and wealth never seen before.”

Strangling the flow of cash that allows IS to arm its jihadists and fund the local infrastructure in the regions it occupies could smother the organization in ways that may prove even more effective than bombing its bases. As the journal Studies in Conflict and Terrorism noted as long ago as 2004 in a report on al-Qaeda, though, terrorist groups typically rely on informal money transfer networks and under-regulated Islamic finance channels which are harder to close down.

Thomas Sanderson, co-director of the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said:

Our options and appetite for more investment of blood and treasure in the fight against terrorism may be limited, but without addressing all dimensions of the financing threat, our progress over the years may be lost. If groups like ISIS can fill their coffers, run economies and consolidate their hold on power, we may be facing a new, more dangerous brand of global terrorism that will threaten the United States and its allies for years to come.

Driving a wedge between IS and the dollars it needs demands greater cooperation between the various countries that profess to oppose the group, more punishing sanctions against any nation found to have turned a blind eye to stolen oil crossing its borders, a coordinated refusal to pay ransoms, and severe retributions against anyone found to participate in the trading of looted treasure. Waging financial war on IS to undermine its ability to operate as a nation state should clearly be more of a priority than it has been so far.

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Are Whistleblowers Adequately Protected?

Are whistleblowers protected in the US?

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Republican Chuck Grassley, of Iowa, urged the Securities and Exchange Commission this week for an update on the performance of so-called “whistleblower” protections created under the Dodd-Frank Act.

Warren and Grassley, in a letter to SEC Chair Mary Jo White, requested information on the agency’s Office of the Whistleblower, as well as asked about implementation of 2013 SEC Office of Inspector General recommendations, among other things.

According to Warren’s office, a 2013 OIG report regarding the implementation of protections created under the law, recommended that the Office of the Whistleblower establish standardized performance criteria for whistleblower complaints.

“The whistleblower program is an important tool in the SEC’s efforts to combat securities fraud and almost three years have passed since the SEC OIG evaluation of this program,” the senators stated in their letter. “We are writing to seek an update on the program’s performance and on OWB’s progress in implementing the OIG recommendations.”

Warren and Grassley urged the SEC chair to provide answers to several questions by Nov. 26, including: a description of progress in implementing the 2013 recommendations; the number of whistleblower tips, complaints and referrals received from July 2013 to June 2015; and the average time it took the office to review them upon receipt.

The senators also requested information regarding the average amount of time between posting a Notice of Covered Action and contacting the relevant whistleblower and the percentage of tips, complaints and referrals under investigation, among other data.

Under Dodd-Frank Congress expanded protections afforded to whistleblowers and provided incentives for reporting potential SEC violations, Warren’s office said. Two key provisions included in the law to expand whistleblower participation provided the SEC the authority to award cash payments to those who provide actionable tips and instructed the agency to create a new division to oversee the whistleblower program.

Warren’s letter came a week after the Democratic senator called on the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission to implement rules that protect taxpayers and the financial system following Dodd-Frank changes.

whistleblower hat