Enhancing EU Capital Markets

Jonathan Hill writes:  Europe needs stronger, deeper capital markets. Our economy is about the same size as America’s, but our equity markets are less than half the size of theirs — and our debt markets less than one-third.

In the US, small and medium-sized companies raise about five times as much funding from capital markets as in the EU. If European venture capital markets were as deep as those in the US, our companies could have raised an extra €90bn over the past five years. And the differences between EU countries are even bigger than those between Europe and the US.

The benefits of stronger capital markets are also clear. We could give Europe’s businesses more choices over funding, helping them to invest and grow; increase investment in infrastructure; draw in more funding from outside the EU; help businesses sell into bigger markets; and help those saving for their old age. And, by reducing reliance on bank funding, we could help make the financial system more resilient, particularly in the eurozone.

All 28 members of the EU share this view. So does the European Parliament.

Some of the big questions are longstanding. How will we encourage investors to make cross-border investments when national insolvency laws are so different? How can investors gain access to comparable credit information on SMEs? How do we overcome national barriers, such as “passporting fees” if businesses operate in multiple countries?

Here are some clear priorities for early action.

To help free up banks’ balance sheets, making it easier for them to increase lending, I am proposing a new EU framework, with lower capital requirements, to encourage simple, transparent and standardized securitization. We need to make it more attractive to invest in infrastructure. A new infrastructure asset class that will attract lower capital requirements under the Solvency II regime for insurers.

Start-ups in need of capital should not be forced to go to the US, so I propose measures — including changes to legislation — to encourage the European venture capital scene to thrive. We need to make it easier for companies to raise funds on the public markets, too.

To channel more investment from Europe’s citizens to its businesses, we need to improve retail financial services. This means looking at them from the consumer’s point of view.

The creation of a capital markets union is a big opportunity for Europe. The UK, as Europe’s leading financial services centre, has a major contribution to make.

This is a good example of the practical benefits that membership of the single market can bring. But to make the most of it, and to help influence the rules which will set the terms of engagement for years to come, the UK needs to be shaping the system — not looking on while others set the rules.

EU Capital Markets

Entrepreneur Alert: Tech Services for Registered Investment Advisors

Sophisticated tech support now available for registered investment advisors allows them to strike out on their own.

A group of Bank of America Corp. private bankers that helped anchor the firm’s wealth-management practice in one of California’s wealthiest enclaves has defected to start an independent company.

The seven advisers managed about $3.3 billion in client assets out of Newport Beach.

The group is joining a stream of advisers and private bankers leaving big banks and brokerages to start their own boutiques, hoping to exert more control over their dealings and keep a greater share of the revenue. They’re making use of technology ventures that provide record-keeping, custody services and product offerings once available only at the largest firms.

The new tech ventures that aid the boutiques are a growing nuisance for banks and brokerages, which have long focused on wresting each others’ talent.

While it’s difficult to find figures that rank the size of teams leaving the largest brokerages to form their own ventures, the Corient group counts as “a very large practice” with an average of about $470 million in client assets managed by each person.

As independents, the group will be freer to go after new customers. Bank of America advisers often compete with other employees such as those at its U.S. Trust and advisory units in trying to attract or service the same clients, Henderson said.

Four of Corient’s seven advisers attended Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah, and met after college, Henderson said. Bel Air’s Halladay also is an alumnus of the Mormon church-affiliated institution.

The group bolted with help from Dynasty Financial Partners, a firm founded by formerCitigroup Inc. executives that finds office space, sets up trading systems and handles such details as printing business cards and marketing materials. Chicago-based HighTower Advisors LLC, Focus Financial Partners LLC in New York and Tru Independence LLC in Portland, Oregon, also are in the business.

Corient is among the biggest teams that Dynasty has helped turn into independent investment advisers over its five-year history, according to Shirl Penney, Dynasty’s founder. In June, the firm helped a group managing $3 billion at Deutsche Bank AG to break away and form their own firm.

The 20,000 independent RIAs in the U.S. have gained market share every year since 2007, more than doubling their assets to $2.7 trillion as of 2014, according to Aite Group. Client assets at the largest retail brokerages of UBS Group AG, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America rose 14 percent to $6.6 trillion in the same period, Aite said.

by Robert Manoff

by Robert Manoff

Is Long Term Equity the Best Risk Protection?

Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo spoke about “Capital Regulation Across Financial Intermediaries”:

The scope and nature of a firm’s liabilities provide the justifications for capital requirements regulation. Differences in liabilities can, accordingly, sometimes warrant different capital requirements for portfolios of similar assets across firms. At the risk of packing too much into these introductory points, let me also note that an emphasis on a firm’s liabilities is related to, but not synonymous with, an emphasis on its activities. Thus, for example, simply deciding that an intermediary provides mostly commercial banking services or insurance products does not fully answer the question of what its capital requirements should be.

There is a lot here, including on prudential regulation of asset managers, but I particularly liked this:

When concerns are raised about regulatory arbitrage or a level playing field, they are usually in the context of a similar asset being held, or a business activity conducted, by financial firms with different regulatory structures. My discussion today would suggest that attention must be paid to the liability structure of the different firms before deciding whether the asymmetric regulatory treatment is prudent or an invitation to the propagation of new financial risks.

This is it seems to me the core question of financial regulation. There are assets. They are risky; they might go down in value. Someone bears the risk of those assets. If regulation tends to push that risk into entities that are funded with short-term debt from investors who expect it to be money-good, that leads to potential crises. If regulation tends to push that risk into entities with long-term equity-like funding from investors who knowingly bear the risk, that is the best it can do. You can’t get rid of risk, but you should try as much as possible to keep it from being funded by short-term debt with no capital buffers.  Tartullo Speech

Long term Equity?

Honest Mistakes Encouraged at UBS?

Last week the chief executive of UBS told all the bankers who work for him that henceforth UBS chief says it is ok to make honest mistakes.
A culture in which everyone was petrified of taking risks, Sergio Ermotti said, was not in the interests of the bank or its clients.

How mature, came the response. How refreshing to hear a bank chief acknowledge that risks need to be taken and honest mistakes will sometimes be made.

The point is that “This mistake-loving nonsense is an export from Silicon Valley, where ‘fail fast and fail often’ is what passes for wisdom,” but that it is inappropriate in the banking context. Tech is an industry of moving fast and breaking things. Finance is an industry of moving fast, breaking things, being mired in years of litigation, paying 10-digit fines, and ruefully promising to move slower and break fewer things in the future.”

Of course there’s a reason that Ermotti said what he said. A workplace culture of experimenting, taking risks, being unafraid to try new things, not being harshly penalized for messing up is nicer than one of zero-tolerance striving for boring perfection. That’s why people want to work at tech startups and are less keen on working at banks these days. Regulators want to turn banks into utilities — boring and mistake-free — but the bankers look back on their mistakes with nostalgia.

Deutsche Bank prepared to fire traders for Libor manipulation. “Thank you for making yourself available for this call today,” it begins, and then “We have decided that your employment agreement should be terminated with immediate effect by reason of your gross misconduct,” which is the way to do it. Rip the band-aid right off; don’t mince any words about exactly how gross the misconduct was.

UBS Honest Mistakes

Can Inflation Be Measured?

Michael D. Bauer and Erin McCarthy of the San Francisco Fed write:  The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate requires monetary policy to aim for both maximum employment and price stability. Although employment has recovered since the recession, inflation has consistently remained below the Fed’s 2% longer-run objective. Because expectations of future inflation play an important role in determining current inflation, decreases in measures of inflation expectations based on market prices have raised some concerns. For example, between June 2014 and January 2015, one-year inflation swap rates, which measure market-based expectations of inflation in the consumer price index (CPI) one year ahead, dropped over 2.5 percentage points. Large decreases were also observed in breakeven inflation rates, the difference between yields on nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury securities, known as TIPS.

Market-based measures of inflation expectations are calculated from the prices of financial securities. Their advantage is that they are readily available at high frequency and therefore are widely monitored. However, they reflect not only the public’s inflation expectations but also other idiosyncratic factors that affect market prices, which are difficult to quantify. For example, they include a risk premium to compensate investors for inflation uncertainty and are affected by changes in liquidity, unusual demand flows, and, more broadly, “animal spirits” that change prices but are unrelated to expectations (see Bauer and Rudebusch 2015). Hence it is unclear how much useful information they provide, and how much one should pay attention to these rates when forecasting inflation.

If market-based inflation expectations provided accurate inflation forecasts, then one surely would want to pay close attention to their evolution. In this Economic Letter, we evaluate their performance in comparison with a variety of alternative forecasts for CPI inflation.

There are two types of market-based measures that one can use to gauge inflation expectations: TIPS breakeven inflation rates and inflation swap rates. Both of these reflect market-based expectations for future headline CPI inflation that includes food and energy prices. TIPS breakeven inflation rates are reliable only at longer maturities, such as five- and ten-year horizons. Since TIPS only started trading more broadly in the early 2000s, there simply are not enough data to analyze the forecast accuracy of these rates.  Measuring Inflation

Measuring Inflation

Does Saying I’m Sorry Mean Anything?

Harold James writes:  So far, the Volkswagen scandal has played out according to a well-worn script. Revelations of disgraceful corporate behavior emerge (in this case, the German automaker’s programming of 11 million diesel vehicles to turn on their engines’ pollution-control systems only when undergoing emissions testing). Executives apologize. Some lose their jobs. Their successors promise to change the corporate culture. Governments prepare to levy enormous fines. Life goes on.

This scenario has become a familiar one, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis. Banks and other financial institutions have enacted it repeatedly, even as successive scandals continued to erode confidence in the entire industry. Those cases, together with Volkswagen’s “clean diesel” scam, should give us cause to rethink our approach to corporate malfeasance.

Promises of better behavior are clearly not enough, as the seemingly endless number of scandals in the financial industry has shown. As soon as regulators had dealt with one case of market manipulation, another emerged.

The trouble with the banking industry is that it is built on a principle that creates incentives for bad behavior. Banks know more about market conditions (and the likelihood of their loans being repaid) than their depositors do. This secrecy lies at the heart of financial activity. Polite analysts call it “management of information.” Critics consider it a form of insider dealing.

Banks are also uniquely vulnerable to scandal because many of their employees are simultaneously behaving in ways that could influence the reputation, and even the balance sheet, of the entire firm. In the 1990s, a single Singapore-based trader brought down the venerable Barings Bank. In 2004, Citigroup’s Japanese private bank was shut down after a trader rigged the government bond market. At JPMorgan Chase, a single trader – known as “the London Whale” – cost the company $6.2 billion.

What these repeated scandals show is that apologies are little more than words, and that talk about changing the corporate culture is usually meaningless. As long as the incentives remain the same, so will the culture.

The Volkswagen case is a useful reminder that corporate wrongdoing is not confined to the banking industry. There were incentives in the automobile industry to game the system. Everyone knows that actual fuel economy does not correspond to the numbers on the showroom sticker, which are generated by tests carried out with the wind blowing from behind or on a particularly smooth road surface. Anyone who has stood next to a diesel vehicle could tell that it was smellier than cars powered by gasoline.

There are two important similarities between the scandals in the finance industry and at Volkswagen. The first is that large corporations, whether banks or manufacturers, are deeply embedded in national politics, with elected officials dependent on such firms for job creation and tax revenues.

The second similarity is that both industries are subject to multiple regulatory objectives. Regulators may want banks to be safer, but they also want them to lend more to the real economy.

The regulation of automobile emissions faces a similar problem. As regulators’ focus turned toward limiting global warming, there were tremendous incentives to manufacture vehicles that produced fewer greenhouse-gas emissions,

As the Volkswagen crisis so vividly illustrates, we need more than corporate apology and regulatory wrist slapping. It is time for a sustained discussion about how to craft regulations that provide the proper incentives to achieve the objectives we truly desire: economic and social wellbeing. It is only when that discussion takes place that we will get the banks, cars, and other goods and services that we want.

Does Saying I'm Sorry Mean Anything?

Admati: Realistic Banking Policies?

Dean Starkman writes”  Anat Admati, a professor of finance and economics at Stanford’s business school, is an unlikely player in Washington, D.C.’s financial-reform scene.

The 58-year-old Israeli-born economist arrived at Stanford in 1983 with an interest in mainstream financial issues and a firm belief that markets — with their unique ability to assign a price to risk and channel capital to its most efficient use — were a powerful force for good.

The 2008 financial crisis upended that faith. She turned her gaze to the industry at the center of the crisis: banking.

Admati made waves on the national financial-reform scene in 2013 with the book “The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong With Banking and What to Do About It,” co-authored with economist and banking expert Martin Hellwig.

She argues that requiring banks to rely more on shareholders’ money instead of borrowing funds would increase stability, harness market forces to deter risky behavior and lead to a smaller, safer system as banks pulled back on bets that didn’t make financial sense.

Her arguments have drawn fierce pushback from the banking industry, but got the attention of financial policymakers.   Dean Starkman Interviews Anat Admati

Bankers' New Clothes

 

Warren Fighting for Americans, Not Running for President

“You’re one of the household names in American politics,” Colbert said, “and yet you are one of the few household names that is not running for president of the United States. Are you sure you’re not running for president of the United States? Have you checked the newspapers lately? Because a lot of people have jumped in. You might have done it in your sleep.”

“I’m sure I’m not,” Warren said.

“These days, politicians actually have to check the opt-out button,” Colbert said. But he wasn’t ready to give up.

“Can you tell us why you’d be such a terrible choice?” Colbert said. “… Why we shouldn’t be clamoring for an Elizabeth Warren presidency?”

“I’m out there every single day,” Warren said, “in the middle of a huge fight. And it’s a fight about what this country is going to look like going forward. The game is rigged.”

“What is the game you’re talking about?” Colbert said.

“I’m talking about our country and how it’s run,” the senator said. “… We have a federal government that works great for millionaires, it works great for billionaires, it works great for giant corporations.”

But many, Warren said, were left out.

“For the rest of America, it’s just not working,” Warren said. “It’s time for us to take that government back.”

Colbert’s crowd erupted in applause.

“Well, you don’t sound like you’re running for president,” the show’s host said.

In Colbert’s previous life as a buffoonish right-winger on Comedy Central’s “Colbert Report” in 2014, the talk-show host needled Warren about the benefits of lax financial regulation – mostly to her benefit.

“Have you ever heard of the invisible hand of the market?” Colbert said. “You can’t put handcuffs on an invisible hand. The cops can’t find it… . What you call breaking the law, I call pushing the envelope.”

“You can put handcuffs on people that break the envelope,” Warren said. “When they break the law, they deserve to have handcuffs.”

warren

Does Structure of German Corporations Work Against Whistleblowing?

Leonid Bershidsky writes: As it accepted the resignation of Chief Executive Martin Winterkorn on Wednesday, the executive committee of Volkswagen’s supervisory board praised his “towering contributions” to the company that stands to lose much of its $37 billion cash stash making amends for major fraud committed on Winterkorn’s watch. Such graciousness is a German tradition, and it raises the question whether there’s something fundamentally wrong with the country’s corporate establishment.

The committee declares as fact that Winterkorn “had no knowledge of the manipulation of emissions data.” There was no way to establish that in the short time since VW’s use of special software to cheat emissions tests came to light. The board, which in April backed Winterkorn in a battle with company patriarch Ferdinand Piech, must have taken the chief executive’s world for it.

When Anshu Jain stepped down as co-chief executive of Deutsche Bank in June, the bank’s stock price was down 17 percent from this year’s high in April, dogged by continuing heavy fines for all sorts of past misdeeds — many committed on Jain’s watch — and a helpless restructuring plan he had proposed. Yet Paul Achleitner, chairman of Deutsche’s supervisory board, expressed his appreciation for the contribution of Jain and the other co-chief executive, Juergen Fitschen, who is leaving at the end of this year, in almost the same words the VW board used for Winterkorn.

In 2013, the supervisory board of Siemens, Germany’s fifth biggest company by revenue, announced the resignation of Peter Loescher, whose time as chief executive was marked by costly delays in important projects and woeful strategic errors, noting that “Under his leadership, the company achieved a substantially higher level of performance and profitability.” Loescher was credited with cleaning up Siemens after the company was caught bribing officials in a number of countries to land contracts.

It may be that malfeasance of the kind seen at VW, Deutsche Bank and Siemens over the years, as well as a lack of executive responsibility for it — beyond the nuisance of having to resign and be sorely missed — is built into the German corporate governance system.

This system is distinctive in that it recognizes the interests of more than just the shareholders. Other stakeholders, such as workers, local governments and often creditors are represented on supervisory boards. Half of Volkswagen’s board consists of employee representatives elected by the workforce. Besides, two of the board’s 20 members are delegated by the state of Lower Saxony. Votes by the workers and the local bureaucrats secured Winterkorn’s boardroom triumph in April. Workers’ representatives, including labor union leaders, take up half the seats on the boards of Siemens and Deutsche Bank, too.

This is called “co-determination.” The term has more to it, though, than joint decision-making. As a result, employees’ and other stakeholders’ interests become closely aligned with those of management.

It is a feature of every scandal that it is followed by promises of a clean-up.

No wonder it often takes intervention from foreign authorities to uncover wrongdoing by German corporations. In the cases of VW and Siemens, U.S. probes led to the damaging revelations. At Deutsche Bank, shady practices might have continued but for the attention of financial regulators in the U.S. and the U.K.

Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has run Germany for the last decade, has done a lot to turn it into a values-based society

The German corporate establishment is out of step with a society that is actively atoning for its 20th century sins. If it cannot cleanse itself, perhaps changes are needed to the corporate governance system to give investors a bigger role and give other stakeholders a stronger voice.

Fixing VW

What’s on Yellen’s Mind?

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. central bank is on track to raise interest rates this year, even as she acknowledged that economic “surprises” could lead them to change that plan.

“Most FOMC participants, including myself, currently anticipate that achieving these conditions will likely entail an initial increase in the federal funds rate later this year, followed by a gradual pace of tightening thereafter,” Yellen said during a speech Thursday in Amherst, Massachusetts. “But if the economy surprises us, our judgments about appropriate monetary policy will change.”

 While “there wasn’t anything significant enough that changed in one week for her to give us a different take,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets LLC in New York, Yellen “finally acknowledges that she, specifically, does believe that a rate hike is appropriate this year.”

Porcelli expects a December increase, but thinks there’s a high hurdle to moving this year.

Slower demand from China, where growth is projected to drop below 7 percent this year, has helped push down commodity prices, sapping already low inflation in the U.S. The Fed’s preferred gauge of price pressures rose 0.3 percent in the year through July and has been under its 2 percent target since April 2008.

“We cannot be certain about the pace at which the headwinds still restraining the domestic economy will continue to fade,” Yellen said in her remarks Thursday. “Recent global economic and financial developments highlight the risk that a slowdown in foreign growth might restrain U.S. economic activity somewhat further.”

The Fed has been forced to weigh headwinds against signs of continued growth in the domestic economy. U.S. employers have added 1.7 million jobs to payrolls this year, pushing unemployment down to 5.1 percent in August, its lowest in more than seven years.

“On balance the economy is no longer far away from full employment,” Yellen said in her speech. “In contrast, inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s objective over the past several years, and over the past 12 months it has been essentially zero.”

Yellen highlighted that inflation expectations have remained well-anchored, but said that the central bank shouldn’t take it for granted that they will stay that way. She said she thinks “temporary effects” of falling energy and non-energy import prices are the driver behind the tepid inflation, and expects price pressures to rebound barring further decline in crude oil prices and further appreciation in the dollar.

janet-yellen-cartoon-poker-face-clip-art-texas-holdem-interest-rates-Fed-FOMC-FRB-playing-cards-hand