Money Transfers in Somaliland

Barclays was one of the last major international banks to still accept accounts held by money-transfer operators (MTOs), whose activities are seen in the West as open to abuse. But a record $1.9 billion fine slapped on HSBC by U.S. authorities for conducting business with banks in Mexico and Saudi Arabia with possible links to drug trafficking and terrorism appears to have tipped the balance for Barclays. The profit margins no longer seem worth the reputational risk. Now, ironically, Barclays finds itself in the role of “bad guy” by dint of its slowness in pulling out of the MTO sector.

“At the end of the day, the money will still come in, but at much higher transaction cost and with less transparency,” says Shire, Somaliland’s minister of planning. “So who do you punish by doing this? Is it the pirate, the terrorist, or the poor man?”  Money Transfers in Somaliland

Money Transfers in Africa

US Infrastructure Spending

 

Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco look at the impact of intrastructure repair on the economy:  Highway spending in the United States between 2008 and 2011 was flat, despite the serious need for improvements and the big boost to state highway funds from the Recovery Act of 2009. A comparison of how much different states received and spent shows that these federal grants actually boosted highway spending substantially. However, this was offset by pressures to reduce state highway spending due to plummeting tax revenues. In fact, analysis suggests national highway spending would have fallen roughly 20% over this period without federal highway grants from the Recovery Act.  Fueling Road Spending with Federal Stimulus

Infrastructure Repair

 

Protests at Jackson Hole

More and more people realize that government fiscal policies impact them.  Protesters, worried that the central bank is about to put its foot on the brakes, have come to the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole retreat this year to urge the central bank to hold off and give the economy more time to heal. This is believed to be the first time there ever has been protesters at the event.

“We strongly urge the Federal Reserve to reject the calls to raise interest rates and slow the economy down,” said The Center for Popular Democracy, a coalition of 70 organizations, in a letter to Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and her colleagues.

“Although the stock market has roared back to life, and the wealthiest Americans are richer than ever before, too many of us struggle to secure even basic levels of dignity,” the letter said.

Becky Dernbach, 28, an organizer with Neighborhoods Organizing for Change — an advocacy group for low-income residents in Minneapolis — said she came to Jackson Hole to make sure that the voices of average workers were being heard by the Fed.

Kendra Brooks, 42, a resident of Philadelphia who has an MBA but still found herself out of work even after her unemployment benefits ended, said the American dream has “fizzled” in this economy.  “We are not their [the Fed’s] primary concern. They are more focused on the top end of the [income] scale,” she said.

The activists said the Jackson Hole protest was the start of a new effort to get officials to understand the economy is broken.  The group held a two-hour meeting with Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who has been one of several regional bank presidents advocating for a rate hike sooner rather than later.

Ady Barkan, a staff attorney with the Center for Popular Democracy, said that the group appreciated the meeting but that the two sides had talked past each other.  George told the group that higher rates might not come soon, but said are coming and will balance the economy, he said.

“That is completely wrong,” Barkan said. The way to combat imbalance in the economy is through strong regulation “not throwing people out of work,” he said.

Debate Over Monetary Policy

What Will Central Bankers Discuss in Wyoming?

Mohammed A. El-Erian writes:  Minutes released yesterday from the latest policy-making meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England confirm that central bankers will have plenty to discuss when they gather for their annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, starting Friday.

Most important, the minutes illustrated unusual disagreements over how much more central banks can and should do to support economic growth and combat persistent unemployment.

At the Bank of England, two members of the monetary policy committee broke ranks with the majority, favoring an immediate interest-rate increase despite low inflation and no wage growth. In the case of the Fed, officials disagreed not only about how much slack remains in the labor market, but also about how to measure it — both crucial issues in determining how much longer the central bank should keep trying to stimulate economic growth.These issues will be front and center at the Jackson Hole conference, and will probably be the subject of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s keynote speech Friday. Time is of the essence, because much of the discussion will explore whether central bankers’ moment to change course could be drawing near. As the Fed put it in its minutes, officials “generally agreed that both the recent improvement in the labor market conditions and the cumulative progress over the past year had been greater than anticipated and that labor market conditions had moved noticeably closer to those viewed as normal in the longer run.”

The minutes also displayed a reluctance to talk about an issue that is gaining attention as prices in financial markets become increasingly detached from underlying economic conditions: the trade-off between the immediate gains from stimulus and financial stability. A number of prominent economists are warning that the developed world may have fallen into a low-growth equilibrium known as secular stagnation, in which the extraordinary measures adopted by central banks to achieve more robust growth could ultimately destabilize financial markets. Paraphrasing what Ben Bernanke said in his 2010 speech to the Jackson Hole conference, policy makers will have to consider whether they are near or past the point where the benefits of their actions are harder to justify given rising costs and risks.

Finally, the minutes said little about what the global impact will be if the Bank of England and the Fed start easing off the accelerator at a time when the European Central Bank is likely to intensify its stimulus efforts. If the divergence persists, the further shifts in interest rates and currencies could trigger volatility in financial markets around the world. It’s a topic that definitely should also be on the agenda in Jackson Hole.

Monetary Policy

How Banks Can Really Make Money

Karl-Theoor zu Guttenberg and Richard Werner write: By extending credit, banks actually create 97% of the money supply. Given that a dollar in new bank loans increases the money supply by a dollar, banks are not financial intermediaries; they are money creators.

The growing recognition of banks’ true function will be a game-changer in areas like monetary policy and financial regulation, enabling officials to tackle effectively problems like recurring banking crises, unemployment, and underdevelopment. But it will take time to be fully accepted – not least because it challenges a fundamental tenet of traditional economics. Indeed, according to this new paradigm, savings, while useful, are not an essential prerequisite to investment and thus to economic growth. The United States, which experienced a prolonged period of growth without savings, is a case in point.  How Banks Can Make Money

Bank Loans

 

Overzealous Prosecutor in Bank of Tokyo Case?

Matt Levine of Bloomberg, a tough and fair-minded appraiser, assesses the meaning of the New York State Department of FInance’s settlement with PriceWaterhouseCoopers in their consultancy on the Bank of Tokyo’s illegal dealings in Iran and Sudan:

Levine writes:  There’s much that is strange about this story of PricewaterhouseCoopers’s consulting work for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, starting with the fact that PwC is accused of “lacking the objectivity and integrity expected of consultants but not actually breaking the law.” There are some pretty big assumptions in that sentence! What objectivity and integrity do you expect from consultants?

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi had done some illegal transactions with Iran and Sudan and so forth, and it hired PwC to do a historical transaction review of all those illegal transactions. The idea was that PwC would write a report, and the bank would submit it to the New York Department of Financial Services as part of its plea for leniency for, you know, doing all those illegal transactions. PwC wrote the report, and the bank sent some edits to basically make it sound less bad.   Facts and Non-Facts

A Problem of Tone

 

Fed Reserve of Kansas in Jackson Hole

Here are the questions the financial press will be asking:

Why is the job market improving so steadily when output growth is slow and erratic? How low can the unemployment rate go before officials need to worry about wage pressure and inflation? Can the long-term unemployed be drawn back into the workforce in a more vibrant economy? Is workforce productivity waning?  Jackson Hole 2014

US Federal Reserve

Bank of America Fines Total $70 Billion

BofA rewarded Mairone for creating Countrywide’s “Hustle” fraud by hiring her. So far that woman’s criminal expertise contributed toward mounting costs to BofA of $70 billion. Quite an accomplishment!
Her portrait ought to hang right next to CEO Ken Lewis’s at corporate headquarters as among the bank’s most costly mistakes in its history. As CEO, Lewis bought Countrywide for $4 billion, but the $70 billion of fines directly related to that purchase bring the direct cost up to $74 billion and counting.

As Bloomberg notes, Moraine’s Hustle program:

“lasted only nine months yet managed to write almost 30,000 subprime mortgages, which Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bought for about $5 billion. Defect rates on stated-income loans (in which the borrower’s income isn’t verified) reached 70 percent.”

Mairone is now at JPMorgan, and one must wonder how much she’s going to cost that bank.

Bloomberg editorial notes that these settlements provide no incentive to the Banksters to change behavior. First, they’ve insured themselves against their frauds, so insurance companies pay much of the fine. Second, while the fines sound big, they are peanuts compared to what the banks raked-in as they sucked wealth out of the housing sector. Banksters view this as a cost of doing (fraudulent) business. Third, at worst, stockholders suffer, not top management. Fourth, the Attorney General refuses to go after the top management, so none of those who actually benefited from the control frauds have been prosecuted for criminal activity. Indeed, they haven’t even been held personally liable for civil fines. And Fifth, all these negotiations and the settlement details are Top Secret-so no one really knows what was admitted. That is no way to make an example of fraudsters.

Mairone was the exception, and the judge in the case clearly meant to make an example of her. As Bloomberg reports:

“[Judge] Rakoff said the Countrywide loan-approval program was ‘the vehicle for a brazen fraud by the defendants, driven by a hunger for profits and oblivious to the harms thereby visited, not just on the immediate victims but also on the financial system as a whole.'”

Bloomberg goes on to argue that this case against BofA and Mairone disproves all the conventional arguments against prosecuting the fraudsters. It is often claimed that the cases will be too hard to win: they are too complex for juries to understand; or it is too hard to prove that individuals are culpable.

Bloomberg rejects all that:

“This case is the only one in which a large bank has had to defend its conduct in the housing boom, and it challenges the idea that bringing fraud prosecutions in this area is a hopeless endeavor. Apparently juries can cope with financial complexity after all. An assistant U.S. attorney explained what went on at Countrywide without needing to dwell on the arcana of collateralized mortgage obligations….

Other reasons, aside from complexity, have been advanced to justify the lack of prosecutions. One is that the U.S. government was itself involved because of its housing policies. The trial showed it was Countrywide, not a U.S. official, who told loan officers not to screen out risky borrowers and to fill their quota of applications before going home at night. It was Countrywide that rewarded bankers with the speediest approval rates, no matter how poorly underwritten their loans.

The idea that well-shielded executives can’t be implicated also got debunked. Testimony emerged that Mairone silenced and penalized bankers who complained about the quality of hustle loans. Rakoff is requiring Mairone to personally pay her $1 million penalty. Perhaps most important, the case suggests that midlevel employees could have been persuaded to give evidence against their seniors, enabling prosecutors to move up the chain….

The jurors in last year’s trial sent out a note during deliberations asking why more senior Countrywide executives weren’t being sued with Mairone. Many American taxpayers, homeowners and investors cannot be blamed for wondering the same thing.”

Exactly. Why isn’t Eric Holder going after the senior executives? Start with Bob Rubin, Hank Paulson, Bryan Moynihan, Ken Lewis, and Jamie Dimon. Seek prison terms on conviction. That would incentivize the banks.

How to Stop Fraud in Banking?

 

China to Continue Monetary Policies to Shore up Economy

China’s central bank said on Wednesday that it will continue to implement a targeted approach in monetary policy in the second half of 2014 and shore up weak links in the economy.
More financial support will be provided to rural areas and small businesses to reduce their financing costs, according to a statement on the website of the People’s Bank of China.  It said it will accelerate work to establish a deposit insurance scheme in the coming months.

The statement came after a meeting between the central bank governor and heads of the bank’s branches across the country to review monetary policy in the first half and map out policies for the second.  The central bank also said it will strengthen monitoring of financial risks in key sectors and industries, and handle the risks in a timely manner to prevent regional and systemic risks.

Chinese Targets

Bringing Back Glass Steagall in the US

For over half a century, the Depression-era law known as Glass-Steagall kept traditional banks separate from the high-risk world of investment banks and hedge funds. Uncle Sam agreed to insure our deposits. And the banks, in return, agreed not to use these deposits for gambling in the Wall Street casino. That all changed with the industry-backed deregulation of the 1980s and ‘90s. Once again, banks gained the ability to play risky games with government-backed funds, setting the stage for the financial and economic meltdown of 2008.

After Senators Elizabeth Warren, John McCain, Maria Cantwell, and Angus King introduced their bill to bring back Glass-Steagall, AFR and our allies wanted to show the strength of the support for making the biggest banks simpler and smaller and once again ending the public subsidy to Wall Street speculation.

Return to Glass Steagall