The Illusion of Global Regulation

Howard Davies writes: The global system of financial regulation is extraordinarily complex. Partly for that reason, it is little understood.

Many people show some spark of recognition at the mention of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which sets capital standards for banks. They may also have heard of the Bank for International Settlements, the central banks’ central bank, in which the Basel Committee sits. And the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO), which sets standards for exchanges and securities regulators, has name recognition in some quarters. But when you get to the International Association of Insurance Supervisors, brows furrow.  Financial Regulation

Global Financial Regulation

Domestic Banks Face Different Challenges than Global Banks

Economists at the New York Federal Reserve write: Large global U.S. banks—that is, those that have offices in foreign countries and are able to move liquidity from affiliates across borders have an advantage over large domestic U.S. banks, which have to rely on financing raised in capital markets and from depositors to extend credit and issue loans..  The internal liquidity management by global banks has, on average, mitigated the effects of aggregate liquidity shocks on domestic lending by these banks.

If a bank has stable deposit funding or maintains more liquid assets on its balance sheet, its lending might be less affected by aggregate liquidity shocks.

There also might be different responses to liquidity risk by U.S. banks that are domestically oriented compared with banks that are global.   Because these two types of banks have very different business models, the channels and magnitude of transmission of liquidity risks into bank lending may differ significantly. Small domestic banks have relatively strong lending responses to liquidity risks.  By contrast, banks with foreign affiliates, particularly large banks, move funds across their organizations to offset such risks, and potentially insulate lending in their home markets.  However, these same banks may decrease lending abroad as they move liquidity into their home country.

For both types of banks, changes in aggregate private liquidity are likely to influence lending differently in crisis than in normal periods, in part because of the availability of and willingness to use official sector liquidity facilities in periods of aggregate liquidity stress. When banks have access to central bank liquidity facilities priced at terms below private market rates, this might relax the constraints imposed by the composition of banks’ balance sheets on their access to external funding, leading to a different relationship between those balance sheet characteristics and the banks’ lending,  Is Liquidity a Measure of Stability

Bank Liquidity

 

 

 

Tirole, Who Argues for Regulation of Big Businesses, Wins Nobel

A French researcher whose life’s work has been devoted to regulating large companies has won the Nobel Prize for Economics. Jean Tirole, scientific director of industrial economics at Toulouse University, was named the 2014 winner of the Economics Nobel prize on Monday “for his analysis of market power and regulation.’

A mathematician by training, Tirole’s work focuses heavily on game theory and information theory, which focuses on how people use strategic information. His research is focused on the problems that regulators often face when taming oligopolies. Tirole, 61, has advocated for tailored approaches in favor of blunt regulations such as price caps. In 2013, he contributed to a report that called to “complete the euro” with deeper European integration. His research on “Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivation” challenges the notion that individuals always respond to incentives. Triole has shown that the best regulation should carefully be adapted to each specific industry.

“His analysis of firms with market power provides a unified theory with a strong bearing on central policy questions: how should the government deal with mergers or cartels, and how should it regulate monopolies?” the academy said. “Tirole showed theoretically that such rules may work well in certain conditions, but do more harm than good in others. Price caps can provide dominant firms with strong motives to reduce costs — a good thing for society — but may also permit excessive profits — a bad thing for society. Cooperation on price setting within a market is usually harmful, but cooperation regarding patent pools can benefit everyone. The merger of a firm and its supplier may encourage innovation, but may also distort competition.”    Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivation

Regulation

 

 

 

 

Interest Rates Impacts Different Economies Differently

Daniel Gros writes: Within the eurozone, where until recently external accounts were nearly balanced, a similar creditor/debtor spectrum has emerged, with Germany and the Netherlands at one end, and much of the eurozone south at the other. This partly explains both the hostile stance toward QE adopted in the German financial press and the over-indebted periphery countries’ increasingly desperate calls for more action by the ECB.

In the eurozone, however, QE is a questionable response to such calls. QE is a special instrument used when a central bank’s short- and medium-term policy rates are already at zero and it wants to lower long-term interest rates. This implies that QE can be effective only in economies in which changes in long-term (market) interest rates play an important role in the private sector.

But this is not the case in Europe, where most investment is financed via bank loans that typically do not have long-term maturities – often less than five years – because banks themselves have little secure long-term financing. Moreover, the interests rates charged on these loans are not linked to market rates, but rather to the bank’s refinancing cost, which is already close to zero     Credit and Debt

Quantitative Easing

Bankruptcy in Large USFinancial Institutions

The Jeffrey M. Lacker of the Federal Reserve of Richmond reports;  Here are the highlights of my speach at the National Conference of Bankruptcy Judges Annual Meeting at Chicago, Ill.

  • The bankruptcy process is an effective tool for reconciling the incentives of creditors and debtors. Yet the government has a long history of handling large complex financial institutions outside the Bankruptcy Code.
  • This has created two mutually reinforcing conditions: Investors feel protected by an implicit commitment of government support, and policymakers feel compelled to provide that support to avoid a disruptive adjustment of expectations.   Jeffrey Lacker’s Speech

Bankruptcy

Why Does the Fed Not Raise Interest Rates?

EconMaters writes:  We are not talking about raising the Fed Fund’s Rate to 4% we are just talking about raising rates more in line with basically a normal functioning economy growing at 2 plus percent on an annual basis with an unemployment rate in the fives. If the Federal Reserve cannot raise rates after 7 long years, this either says a lot about their lower rate and QE strategy in the first place, i.e., it hasn’t worked, or they need to quit making excuses and raise the freaking rate already. This has gone on long enough; I want the Federal Reserve out of financial market manipulation with absurdly idiotic interventionist policies. There is something seriously wrong if the Federal Reserve cannot raise the Fed Fund’s Rate a measly 100 basis points after 7 longs years of ZIRP! Seven years is an entire business and economic cycle, shoot the economy has been at ZIRP for so long it literally could cycle back to recession just because it has been so long, and business cycles have normal patterns of growth and contraction, we did study this in business school, this is economics 101!

Interest Rates?

Credit Crunch in Russia After Sanctions

Russia companies face a looming credit crunch unless sanctions imposed by the west are relaxed and access to international capital markets is regained, according to Moody’s, the rating agency.

Debt issuaance by Russian companies in July when EU and US tightened sanctions.  Analysts said crunch would hit metals and mining, real estate and construction sectors could suffer most.

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Central bank statistics show that of $220bn in loans disbursed to non-banking corporates and households in Russia last year, almost $93bn came from jurisdictions that are home to large numbers of Russian offshore holdings but are not typical sources for large amounts of bank lending, including Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg and the British Virgin Islands.

Credit Crunch

 

 

 

Argentina’s Bonds

Joseph E. Stiglitz and Martin Guzman write:   In the midst of the ongoing dispute between Argentina and the “vulture funds” that hold its bonds, a broad consensus has emerged concerning the need for sovereign-debt restructuring mechanisms (SDRMs). Otherwise, US Federal Judge Thomas P. Griesa’s ruling that Argentina must pay the vultures in full (after 93% of other bondholders agreed to a restructuring) will give free rein to opportunistic behaviors that sabotage future restructurings.   Argentina’s Bonds

Argentina's Bonds

Security Breaches in Computer Systems of US Banks and Department Stores

Katie Benner writesL

Was Round 1 only a set-up? Photographer: Ron Antonelli/Bloomberg

When hackers broke into JPMorgan Chase’s computer systems they nabbed name and contact information for 83 million households and small-business account.

But it seems like they didn’t take more sensitive data like account numbers, passwords and Social Security numbers, the stuff that someone can use to steal your money or your identity. The bank says that the breach hasn’t given way to an uptick in fraudulent activity.

This sounds like very good news — burglars entered, looked around, took some family photos and left the cash and jewelry behind.

Unfortunately that’s not quite how cyber breaches work. Talk to enough people in the security field and you’ll hear some version of this story: Once the attackers knew they had been discovered, they went into hibernation for months or a year and then they started moving around and doing damage. It’s more like the robbers hid when the cops arrived, only to emerge months later when you thought they were all gone.

Is the US ready for a series of re-breaches of seurity next year?

Security Breaches

Draghi Proposes Buying Junk Bonds of Greece and Cyprus

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is set to push the ECB to buy junk-rated Greek and Cypriot bank loans, a move that may increase tensions betweenGermany and the bank.

The central bank’s executive board will propose that current requirements on the quality of assets accepted by the bank be relaxed to allow the ECB to buy repackaged debt, or safer slices of Greek and Cypriot asset-backed securities, the FT reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

If the proposal is accepted by a majority of the ECB’s governing council, the central bank will be able to buy investment instruments from all 18 euro zone member states, the newspaper reported.

As part of its stimulus, the ECB plans to buy top tranches of certain asset-backed securities. The central bank said it would also ‎buy riskier tranches if governments guaranteed them, an idea swiftly rejected by France and Germany.

Draghi unk Bonds