Is A Euro Treasury the Answer?

Joerg Bibow writes:The crisis of growth in the eurozone economy is now in its seventh year.  A new consensus is gradually emerging that could help lift euro countries out of this ongoing crisis. It emphasises the need for Europe’s currency union to reinvigorate public investment by some joint endeavour.

Some version of this is recognised by all the EU’s key leaders. Back in July, now-president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, called for a €300 billion public-private investment program. European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi lent his support to the idea in his Jackson Hole speech, acknowledging that the eurozone is suffering from deficient aggregate demand.

And former EU Commission president, Mario Monti, has said that public investment has been crushed by the Stability and Growth Pact and relentless austerity drive undertaken across the continent in its name. The IMF also highlighted that public investment is currently as close to a free lunch as it ever gets in its latest World Economic Outlook. So countries renege on their grandchildren’s possibilities by not going for it.

For far too long, the debate in Europe was exclusively focused on the liability side of the public ledger: debt. But it is the asset side – whether or not investment is made in public infrastructure such as transport and energy, health, education and research – that is far more relevant in shaping the  future.  Creating a joint treasury for eurozone members would be a simple and straightforward way of doing this.

This euro treasury would act as a vehicle to pool future eurozone public investment spending and have it funded by proper eurozone treasury securities. The euro treasury would allocate investment grants to member states based on their GDP shares. And it would collect taxes to service the interest on the common debt, also exactly in line with member states’ GDP shares.

The arrangement amounts to a rudimentary fiscal union, not a transfer union though, as benefits and contributions are shared proportionately. Nor would the joint public debt issued for investment purposes cancel out any existing national debts. Instead, the euro treasury securities would provide the means to fund the joint infrastructure spending which is the basis for the union’s joint future.

Currently, eurozone public investment spending is at a very depressed level of around 2% of members’ GDP. Public investment should be boosted to 3 or 4% of GDP for a few years and thereafter grow at an annual rate of, say, 5%. Once the key parameters are set, there would be no discretion in fiscal decision making at the centre.

Public investment should be debt financed. Member states would still be required to abide by all the rules of the current euro regime, but this would apply to current public expenditures only – as national public capital expenditures would form a separate capital budget funded through common securities.

Lacking a euro treasury partner and euro treasury debt, the ECB is subject to legal challenges to its quasi-fiscal policies, as applied to national debts. There is little the ECB can safely buy without opening the can of worms that has the “transfer union” label on it – the unpopular idea that the wealthier sections of the eurozone must prop up the poorer parts. The euro treasury would establish the vital axis of power between treasury and central bank.

And, while the flawed euro regime has caused a massive investment slump, the treasury scheme would steady public investment spending. This would safeguard the eurozone’s infrastructure and common future – and it would also help stabilise economic activity and investment spending generally.

With public investment organised at the centre and funded through common debt, national public debt ratios can decline to low and safe levels. The term structure of euro treasury debt would become the common benchmark for financial instruments issued by debtors of euro member-states, irrespective of nationality – the promise of the common market and common currency would finally be fulfilled.

The original euro experiment has failed and it is high time to relaunch it on sounder footing. The euro treasury would not only heal the euro’s potentially fatal birth defects but would also contribute to overcoming the ongoing crisis.

 Euro Tresury

Is the US Going to Waive Hello to Credit Suisse?

The Labor Department announced it would hold a public hearing in January to review whether Credit Suisse should be granted a waiver to continue overseeing many pension funds and individual retirement accounts. The agency gave the bank a temporary exemption to continue doing such work while the review continued to “avert possible disruptions in retirement plan investments.”

The Labor Department also announced that it had proposed a waiver for Credit Suisse, but that no decisions would be finalized until after the public has had its say at the Jan. 15 hearing.

After intense scrutiny from some lawmakers, Credit Suisse pleased guilty in May to helping U.S. citizens evade taxes, making it the largest bank in the last two decades to do so.

Credit Suisse on Waivers

Lawsky to Leave NYS Department of Financial Regulation

Lawsky was a tiger in his job.  Reports on his departure talk about is interest in the Bitcoin and bringing it into the monetary system.  He came to know many people prominrent in the Bitcoin community.

But more than virtual currency, Lawsky fought Payday Loans,  He was also a spokeman for ‘No Banker Too Big to Jail.”  He irritated NY State Attorney General Eriic Schneiderman, who he also got to be more active in looking into banking activities.  Lawsky had shamed him by speaking out.

One wonder why this brave soul is leavaing before his work is done.  Maybe no one wants him to do his work.

Lawsky

 

Why Did Obama Nominate Loretta Lynch to the Post of US AG?

The Attorney General in Waiting for Senate confirmation has treated big banks with kid gloves in the past. As a lawyer, her clinets were often white collar criminals from the financial industry.  She was involved in LIBOR, many issues involving subprime mortgages and also security ratings agencies.

Lynch basically got her first six years of white collar criminal defense experience working at the firm that is currently responsible for keeping the bankers behind the great subprime mortgage grift out of jail. The firm is also defending the financial institutions that jacked up interest rates on everything from student loans to home loans out of greedy self-interest. They even defended the agencies that knowingly rated worthless mortgage-backed securities as AAA, setting up millions to lose their retirement savings in a snap.

After six years of exemplary work at this law firm, Lynch walked through the revolving door to the U.S. Attorney’s office in the Eastern district of New York, which plays a major part in investigating financial crimes.   She was chief of the office’s Long Island division by 1998, and was tapped as U.S. Attorney by June of 1999, where she remained until 2001. Then, Lynch walked back through the revolving door to return to defending white collar criminals.

From 2003 to 2005, Lynch sat on the board of the New York Federal Reserve, working directly under future US Treasury secretary Geithner.

Unless some unforesenn issue arises, Lynch will survive her senate confirmation hearing. Senator Dick Durbin once referred to his chamber as overly subservient to the big banks, saying,  “They own the place.”  It is well to remember that Hillary Cinton, the presumptive democratic Presidential nominee got to know the same bankers in her husband’s administration that have continued in the Obama administration, are connected to Lynch and of course Mrs.Clinton’s favoirte Wall Street bank, Goldman Sachs.

Banks

Too Big To Fail Means Too Big to Jail

The Attorney General of New York State remarked:  “I am concerned that the size of some of these institutions becomes so large that it does become difficult for us to prosecute them when we are hit with indications that if you do prosecute, if you do bring a criminal charge, it will have a negative impact on the national economy, perhaps even the world economy. And I think that is a function of the fact that some of these institutions have become too large. Again, I’m not talking about HSBC; this is just a more general comment. I think it has an inhibiting influence—impact on our ability to bring resolutions that I think would be more appropriate.

What were the banks doing?  Mortgage lenders  would go out into neighborhoods, and during this boom period, they were giving mortgages to anybody and everybody with a pulse, essentially. They were especially low-income neighborhoods. They were offering these very advantageous loans to people, whether they could afford the houses or not. They were buying huge masses of these loans.  They were called like “liar’s loans,” or stated income where no one even checked whether the person had the income to actually pay it off.

Investigative journalist Matt Taibbi writes: Tthese settlements, they always come up with a big number, but the number is always actually—when you actually look at the accounting, it turns out to be smaller than they announce. In the case of the Chase settlement, the number they announced was $13 billion. But there’s a couple of really important factors here. One is that $7 billion of that—it’s $7 billion, right?—was tax-deductible, which means that all of us, American citizens, anybody who pays taxes, actually picked up the check for about $2.4 billion worth of the settlement. So we paid part of that settlement, which is crazy. I mean, the ordinary person, if we get a speeding ticket, we can’t deduct that when we go to pay our taxes. But these people cratered the world economy, and they get to write a tax deduction for it.

Bankers who condcut business this way are careful not to do anything illegal, although their activities are often immoral, unethical and wrong.

In most developed countries there are laws on the books which prevent bankers from conducting fradulent business.  These laws are often not enforced.  If we are goiing to clean up corrupt business practices of banks, we must enforce the laws on the books.   Banks have to be treated as a special form of business.  They deal in other people’s money and be watched like hawks by public officals and citizens alike.

Watching Bankers

 

Is the US Government’s Investigation of Foreign Banks a Diversionary Tactic?

US regulators are re-upping their case against Standard Chartered, a British bank.  They are doing this under US domestic laws which forbid trading with Iran.   These laws do not apply to foreign banks, so the case is a false one.  Nonetheless, shares in the bank fell precipitously when the US announced its new investigation.

British politica leaders have refused to get involved.  Some think that the bank has no choice but to move back to Shanghai where it began in 1858.

US regulators will not touch a US banker like Jamie Dimon, who until recently was the President’s personal banker among his many roles.  They are trying to defend themselves to US citizens cangry at banks by attacking foreign banks like Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank.  Meanwhile Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Citibank are sailing through with no criminal charges lodged against them.  Fines which seem huge to ordinary citizens are just the cost of doing business for big banks.

Fining Big Banks

The “Living Will” Provision of Dodd Frank

Is this a solution to ‘too big to fail?”

Jeffrey M. Lacker, had of the Federal Reserve of Richmond, spoke on ‘too big to fail’

Here are his main points:

  • “Too big to fail” results from two mutually reinforcing conditions: Investors feel protected by an implicit commitment of government support, and policymakers feel compelled to provide that support to avoid a disruptive adjustment of expectations.
  • The origins of too big to fail can be traced back to the introduction of federal deposit insurance in 1933. The problem was exacerbated by a series of rescues by the Federal Reserve and the FDIC that began in the 1970s, and by policymakers’ actions during the financial crisis of 2007–08.
  • The Orderly Liquidation Authority created by the Dodd-Frank Act retains many of the flaws of ad-hoc pre-crisis practices and does little to improve creditors’ incentives to monitor risk-taking.
  • A better strategy for ending too big to fail is the provision in the Dodd-Frank Act requiring large financial firms to prepare “living wills” detailing how they could be resolved under the Bankruptcy Code.
  • Resolution planning is difficult work, but living wills must be credible in order for policymakers to commit to using them rather than relying on government backstops.

Living Wills?

Israel Arrests 14 for Tax Evasion

Steven Scheer writes:   Israel arrested 14 people, including a senior UBS investment adviser, as part of an investigation into Israelis allegedly holding undisclosed bank accounts with UBS worth hundreds of millions of euros, the Tax Authority said on Wednesday.  All 14 had been released on bail soon after their arrests.
In addition to the unnamed senior investment adviser at UBS who was arrested in June in Tel Aviv, 12 Israelis with accounts at UBS had also been arrested, including two suspects who own a chain of health clinics abroad, said the tax authority. An accountant for the clinics was also arrested.  An Israeli court allowed publication of the arrests and allegations following a petition by an Israeli newspaper. The court is considering whether to release the names of those arrested.
Israel is starting to crack down on foreign bank accounts held by its citizens after a similar move by the United States to track accounts held by Americans abroad.  The tax authority said it had carried out a long investigation into accounts held by Israelis in Swiss banks and received information that thousands of Israelis maintain accounts in Switzerland, worth hundreds of millions of euros.

The authority said that the UBS adviser had arrived in Israel the day before he was arrested. He had met Israeli clients at a luxury hotel in Tel Aviv the following day.
“The meetings were held under secret surveillance of tax authority investigators,” it said. “At the end of the meeting …all the participants were arrested.”
Searches were subsequently made in the hotel room of the UBS adviser, UBS’s office in Israel and in other locations.  Among the adviser’s possessions, investigators found lists of hundreds of Israelis with unreported bank accounts in Switzerland, the authority said, adding that he is accused of helping clients intentionally and deliberately avoid reporting and paying taxes.
It said the adviser — directly responsible for dealing with the accounts — would visit Israel for secret meetings with clients who did not want to send instructions and documents to the bank by phone, mail or fax to avoid revealing that they held Swiss bank accounts.
Leumi, Israel’s second largest bank, last week said a settlement with U.S. authorities over possible tax evasion by the bank’s American clients could be far higher than previously estimated.
The total penalty could reach as much as $600 million, based on Leumi’s previous estimate as well as a settlement offer from New York State’s financial regulator.

Arrests

QE in Japan

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) stunned the financial markets by unexpectedly expanding its programme of quantitative easing. The bank’s existing measures, a “different dimension” of easing from past efforts, were already daringly bold. Now it will swell Japan’s monetary base at an even faster pace, by around ¥80 trillion ($712 billion) each year, up from ¥60 trillion-70 trillion currently. To do so, it will hoover up still larger quantities of Japanese government bonds (JGBs).

The bank’s action is also an admission of partial failure thus far. Its bond-buying has succeeded in sparking some inflation, yet its goal of achieving price rises of 2% a year by around April 2015 remains a distant possibility. Along with the government, it badly underestimated the dampening effect of a hike in the consumption tax in April this year, which caused the economy to shrink by 1.7% in the second quarter.

Economists had started to question Mr Kuroda’s oft-stated commitment to banishing Japan’s entrenched deflationary psychology. Mr Kuroda admitted that matters had reached a “critical point”, as the bank’s efforts were losing momentum.

Now a fresh round of no-holds-barred QE will immediately boost Mr Abe’s economic plan. The Nikkei stock index—a vital gauge of success for the government—rose to its highest level in seven years on the news. The yen lurched further downwards, which will help import inflation.

As well as buying an additional ¥30 trillion of JGBs a year, the BoJ will also purchase more risky assets in the form of exchange-traded funds and investment trusts in Japanese property.

A motivation for Mr Kuroda—in addition to visibly slowing inflation and weak growth—may have been an intensifying political debate over whether or not Mr Abe should again raise the unpopular consumption tax from 8% to 10% in 2015.

But this latest round of QE is not without its detractors. In April 2013 the BoJ’s nine-strong policy board voted unanimously in favour of its radical new monetary drive, this time it revealed a rare split.

QE in Japan

AIG Against the US

Lawyer David Boies has a shot at an upset win in the trial of Maurice “Hank” Greenberg’s $25 billion bailout case against the U.S. government, a turnaround from the weak odds he was given just a month ago.

Boies, representing Greenberg and other AIG shareholders, has had a series of evidentiary rulings go his way since the trial began Sept. 29 in Washington.

Beyond the money at stake, Justice Department lawyers are also fighting to prevent a verdict that the Federal Reserve acted illegally by charging a high interest rate and demanding equity as a condition for the loan. Such a ruling could limit the tools available to the government in a future economic crisis.

In their defense, the three top designers of the bailout, former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner, the former Treasury secretary who was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 2008, all testified that the U.S. rescued AIG to avert the catastrophic damage that would have occurred if the insurer went bankrupt.

The heart of Starr’s argument is that however noble the government’s aims, it used power it didn’t have to take over AIG and further harmed shareholders by failing to pay just compensation.

As an example of how shareholders’ due process rights were violated, Boies highlighted the more favorable treatment troubled investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

U.S. Court of Federal Claims Judge Thomas Wheeler frequently overruled government objections to Boies’s questions and handed him beneficial evidence rulings.

In a skirmish over the so-called Doomsday Book, the New York Fed’s compendium of confidential legal opinions on its emergency powers, Wheeler said he was inclined to grant broad access to Starr.

Wheeler rebuked Justice Department lawyers several times for attempting to rely on hearsay testimony, introducing exhibits in violation of trial rules about redactions, and dragging out proceedings by reading lengthy passages from documents.

The case going to trial at all was a victory for Boies and Greenberg, because the judge’s refusal to dismiss it was a rejection of the notion by some legal experts that the lawsuit was without merit.  .

Wheeler in July 2012 wrote that he agreed with Starr’s argument that the only consideration for a loan under the Fed’s emergency powers can be an interest rate set by the Board of Governors — not a demand for equity.  In the same 2012 ruling, Wheeler wrote that he didn’t buy a government assertion that authority for demanding equity came from the “incidental powers” section of the Federal Reserve Act, which deals with unspecified actions needed “to carry on the business of banking.”

Boies’s position that the U.S. didn’t have authority to demand equity was bolstered by testimony from Bernanke, who told Boies that he didn’t read the word ‘rate’ in the emergency-powers section of the Federal Reserve Act to include equity.

The government countered with testimony from the general counsel for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Alvarez said he concluded that the board could empower a reserve bank “to extend credit and in giving that authorization can set whatever limits and restrictions and rules the Federal Reserve Board believes is appropriate,” including demanding equity..

Geithner testified he barely looked at the Doomsday Book because much of its counsel for the Fed was formulated during the Great Depression.

If guidance for the future is Wheeler’s goal, it may nonetheless have little impact, said Philip Wallach, a fellow at the Brookings Institution.  Regulators faced with a crisis will do what they think is necessary and worry about the consequences later.

Bailing Out