Should Big Banks Be Primary Dealers for Central Banks?

What impact do primary dealers have on the economics of any country, the EU, or the world economy for that matter, Lee Adler asks.  Here is a table of primrary dealers he has prepared.  World Primary Dealers

Adler looks around at the central banks: The PBoC (China) is also playing a growing role as it integrates its financial markets with the rest of the world’s, but its system does not use Primary Dealers, per se, and its linkages to the rest of the world are more obscure. The BoE (UK) is a small player.

Adler aruges that Central Banks’ policy doesn’t mean much. With Quantitative Easing, the central banks bring the money into existence by making deposits in the Primary Dealers’ accounts at the central banks in payment for the securities the central banks purchase from the Primary Dealers, or by making loans to them. What the dealers do with the money from there is up to them, although they are loosely required to purchase government securities when the central government auctions them. Since there are always plenty of other bidders for the government paper, the Primary Dealers end up with billions in excess cash.

Certainly the US is making the break up of Big Banks a big issue, and this may be why it is important to simplify and clarify their role and divide up their functions.

The Tentacles of Big Banks Crush Governments

 

Citigroup Takes Space in the US Capital

Citigroup to Move Its Headquarters to the Capital Building   The banking giant Citigroup announced on Friday that it would move its headquarters from New York to the U.S. Capitol Building, in Washington, D.C., in early 2015.

Tracy Klugian, a spokesperson for Citi, said that the company had leased thirty thousand square feet of prime real estate on the floor of the House of Representatives and would be interviewing “world-class architects” to redesign the space to suit its needs.

According to sources, Citi successfully outbid other firms, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, for the right to move its headquarters to the House floor.

The Citi spokesperson acknowledged that the extensive makeover of the House is expected to cost “in the millions,” but added, “It’s always expensive to open a new branch.”

Explaining the rationale behind the move, Klugian told reporters, “Instead of constantly flying out from New York to give members of Congress their marching orders, Citigroup executives can be right on the floor with them, handing them legislation and telling them how to vote. This is going to result in tremendous cost savings going forward.”

Klugian said that Citi’s chairman, Michael E. O’Neill, will not occupy a corner office on the House floor, preferring instead an “open plan” that will allow him to mingle freely with members of Congress.

“He doesn’t want to come off like he’s their boss,” the spokesperson said. “Basically, he wants to send the message, ‘We’re all on the same team. Let’s roll up our sleeves and get stuff done.’ ”  (Borowitz Group)

Who Stole the People's Money?

Should US Treasury Nominee Be Opposed?

Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) on Sunday called on supporters to reject one of President Obama’s nominees to the Treasury Department.  Franken criticized nominee Antonio Weiss in no uncertain terms, arguing Obama had nominated the wrong person for the job of Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance.

He argued Weiss would not put the middle class first, and that he was too close to Wall Street.  Franken wrote that Weiss has worked on manuevers called “inversions,” which are mergers that seek to lower a company’s tax burden in the United States.

“More than six years after the crash, the American economy is still recovering,” Franken writes. “We got into that mess because we were willing to let Wall Street police itself. Foxes make poor guards of henhouses. We know that through bitter experience, and I’m not willing to let it happen again.”

Franken is joining Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and others in opposing Weiss, setting up an internal Democratic Party fight with Obama. Weiss is an executive at the investment banking firm Lazard.

When Gary Gensler direct from Goldlman Sachs was nominated to head the Commodities Futures Tradiing Commission, Carl Levin spoke to him early on. Cutting to the chase, levin asked, “Does speculation affect prices?”  “Yes,” said Gensler.  There was long silence.  The answer had come with astonishing ease,  Here was someone ‘tainted’ by Wall Street who was clearly capable of being honest.  Has anyone asked Weiss tough questions?  Asnwers could surprise?

Antonio Weiss and Elizabeth Warren

Jamie Dimon Got What He Wanted in the US Budget

The sudden dramatic collapse in the price of oil could cost trillions of dollars in oil derivative losses; and the FDIC could be liable, following repeal of key portions of the Dodd-Frank Act last weekend.  That means taxpapers will pay for mistakes the banks made — yet again.

Some have argued that the small section of Dodd-Frank that was repealed when the budget was passed came to not very much.  But why then did Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase and President Obama lobby lawmakers to vote for the bill.

Ellen Brown writes:  Quibbling over a mere 5% of the derivatives business sounds like much ado about nothing, but Jamie Dimon and the president evidently didn’t think so. Why?

Under Dodd Frank, FDIC-insured banks were not allowed to put depositor funds at risk for their bets on derivatives, with certain broad exceptions.  At FDIC insured banks, interest rate, currency, gold/silver, credit derivatives referencing investment-grade securities, and hedges werepermissible activities within an insured depositary institution. Those not permitted included “equity, some credit and most commodity derivatives.”

A fraction, but a critical fraction, as it included the banks’ bets on commodities. Five percent of $280 trillion is $14 trillion in derivatives exposure – close to the size of the existing federal debt.  $3.9 trillion of this speculation is on the price of commodities.

Among the banks’ most important commodities bets are oil derivatives. An oil derivative typically involves an oil producer who wants to lock in the price at a future date, and a counterparty – typically a bank – willing to pay that price in exchange for the opportunity to earn additional profits if the price goes above the contract rate. The downside is that the bank has to make up the loss if the price drops.

The drop in the price of oil by over $50 a barrel was completely unanticipated and outside the predictions covered by the banks’ computer models. The drop could cost the big banks trillions of dollars in losses. And with the repeal of the Lincoln Amendment, taxpayers could be picking up the bill.

It may well be that the head of JPMorgan Chase, the President’s personal banker, wanted his losses covered and that’s what he got when the budget was passed.  Jamie Dimon got the public to pay again.

The Budget Passed

 

Japanese Draw Down Savings

Keith Ujikane and Tru Fujioka write:  Japanese drew down savings for the first time on record while wages adjusted for inflation dropped the most in almost five years, highlighting challenges for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as he tries to revive the world’s third-largest economy.

Real earnings fel 4.3 percent in November from a year earlier, a 17th straight decline and the steepest tumble since December 2009, the labor ministry said today.

A higher sales tax combined with the central bank’s record easing are driving up living costs, squeezing household budgets and damping consumption. Abe’s task is to convince companies to agree to higher wages in next spring’s labor talks to sustain a recovery.

Abe is trying to generate a virtuous cycle in the economy, where higher incomes fuel consumer spending, which in turn prompts companies to boost investment and wages. Last week he secured a pledge from business leaders to do their best to boost pay next year.  The government will aim for wages to increase faster than inflation.

The savings rate, which the Cabinet Office calculates by dividing savings by the sum of disposable income and pension payments, peaked at 23.1 percent in fiscal 1975.

As Japan’s population ages, its growing ranks of elderly are tapping their savings, according to the Cabinet Office. Consumers also ran down savings to make purchases ahead of a sales tax-increase in April, the first since 1997.

Japanese officials for years rebutted American pressure on their commerce policies by attributing much of the trade gap between the two nations to Japan’s higher savings rates. The central bank chief said in 1993 that Japan’s trade surplus would remain because of its high savings rate. The country’s top trade negotiator was cited in 1994 saying “Americans should save more, and Japanese should spend more” to balance trade.

Japan’s shrinking workforce is intensifying a labor shortage that Kuroda has said will prompt an increasing number of companies to boost pay to secure workers. So the Bank of Japan and Abe hope.

Savings in Japan

 

Role of the US Fed in Crises?

DIrk Ehnts asks: Can the private sector — firms ahd households, borrow from the central bank?  The answer is “no, but…”   The definition of a financial crisis should be “things are so bad that rules are broken, procedure ignored”. Let’s look at one of the instances of financial crisis: the Federal Reserve Bank in the last financial crisis.

The Fed has “emergency powers”, which have been granted by Congress in 1932 and expanded in 1991.  The Emergency Banking Act of 1933 contains this clause.

Subject to such limitations, restrictions, and regulations as the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System may prescribe, any Federal reserve bank may make advances to any individual, partnership, or corporation on the promissory notes of such individual, partnership, or corporation secured by direct obligations of the United States or by any obligation which is a direct obligation of, or fully guaranteed as to principal and interest by any agency of the United States. Such advances shall be made for periods not exceeding 90 days and shall bear interest at rates fixed from time to time by the Federal reserve bank, subject to the review and determination of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

The Fed has this question in its FAQ section:

What types of investment funds are eligible borrowers?
Investment funds that are organized in the United States and managed by an investment manager that has its principal place of business located in the United States are eligible borrowers for purposes of the TALF. However, any investment fund which is not a U.S. company in accordance with the last sentence of the first FAQ in the “Borrower Eligibility” section is not an eligible borrower for purposes of the TALF.

The Fed also extended credit to rescue Bear Stearns and American Insurance Group (AIG), which was highly controversial when it happened.  The Fed was forced to reveal some information about the balance sheet operations.  There were also swap programs with five central banks. The Fed writes:

In November 2011, the Federal Reserve announced that it had authorized temporary foreign-currency liquidity swap lines with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. These arrangements were established to provide the Federal Reserve with the capacity to offer liquidity to U.S. institutions in currencies of the counterparty central banks (that is, in Canadian dollars, sterling, yen, euros, and Swiss francs). The Federal Reserve lines constitute a part of a network of bilateral swap lines among the six central banks, which allow for the provision of liquidity in each jurisdiction in any of the six currencies should central banks judge that market conditions warrant. In October 2013, the Federal Reserve and these central banks announced that their liquidity swap arrangements would be converted to standing arrangements that will remain in place until further notice. Since their initial establishment in 2009, the Federal Reserve has not drawn on any of the foreign-currency liquidity swap lines.

In the longer term and as its authorities permit, the Treasury will seek to remove from the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, or to liquidate, the so-called Maiden Lane facilities made by the Federal Reserve as part of efforts to stabilize systemically critical financial institutions.

By now, all the Maiden Lane facilities have been resolved.  What has not been resolved is the role of Central Banks in financial crises.  In the US, the Fed has come out smelling quite good.  Whether or not recorvery will trickle down to the middle and low class remains to be seen.

Federal Reserve Swaps Currency?

Do Fines Deter Banks?

Howard Davies writes:  In November, the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announced a settlement in which six banks would be fined a total of $4.3 billion for manipulating the foreign-exchange market. And yet share prices barely reacted. Why?

The nefarious practices and management failings uncovered during the yearlong investigation that led to the fines were shocking. Semi-literate email and chat-room exchanges among venal traders revealed brazen conspiracies to rig the afternoon exchange-rate “fix” for profit and personal gain. Using nicknames like “the three musketeers” and “the A-team,” they did whatever they liked, at an enormous cost to their institutions.

But, despite the huge FCA fine, no top executive was forced to leave and investors did little more than shrug.  Even $4.3 billion is small change when compared to the total fines and litigation costs incurred by the major banks over the last five years. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that the top 22 banks in the United States and Europe have been forced to pay $230 billion since 2009 – more than 50 times the cost of the FCA settlement. This is over and above the heavy losses that banks incurred from bad lending and overambitious financial engineering.

American banks have incurred more than half of these massive penalties. The European bill amounts to just over $100 billion – roughly half of which was paid by the top seven British banks.

In the US, the penalties have been dominated by fines for sales of misleadingly marketed mortgage-backed securities, often to the two government supported entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

In the UK, by contrast, the biggest penalties have come in the form of compensation payments made to individual mortgage borrowers who were sold Payment Protection Insurance.

The Morgan Stanley analysis suggests that we can expect another $70 billion in fines and litigation costs over the next two years from already identified errors and omissions.

The irony here – not lost on the major banks’ finance directors – is that as fast as banks add capital from rights issues and retained earnings to meet the demands of prudential regulators, the funds are drained away by conduct regulators.

Some of the money, especially in the UK, has gone back to individual customers. Today, the payments have become so large that the government has seized them and channeled revenues exceeding the regulator’s enforcement costs to veterans’ charities.

In the US, the end recipients are less clear; indeed, they are undisclosed. Charles Calomiris of Columbia University has challenged what he calls “a real subversion of the fiscal process” as funds are raised and spent in non-transparent ways.

Do fines on this scale serve as useful deterrents?  Clearly, the post-crisis period has revealed unacceptable behavior in many institutions. It will be some time before we know whether large fines on corporations, paid principally by their shareholders, contribute to keeping the system honest.

Whether the current approach serves as an effective deterrent is a question that should be widely debated. Senior bank managers and regulators have a common interest in developing a more effective system – one that punishes the guilty and creates the right incentives for the future.

Bank Fines

Campaign 2016: Breakup Banks?

Simon Johnson writes:  Citigroup took advantage of the budget approval process in te US Congress to tuck into thousands of pages of law the repeal of some of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reforms. The passages were drafted by Citigroup lobbyists and inserted in legislation at the last moment.

At a stroke, Citi executives demonstrated both their continued political clout in Washington and their continued desire to take on excessive amounts of financial risk.  This is exactly what Citi did during the 1990s and 2000s under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush – with catastrophic consequences for the broader economy in 2007-09.

Breaking up Citigroup is under serious consideration as a potential campaign theme. For example, in a powerful speech – watched online more than a half-million times – Senator Elizabeth Warren responded uncompromisingly to the megabanks’ latest display of muscle: “Let’s pass something – anything – that would help break up these giant banks.”
Warren is attracting a great deal of support from the center and the right.

Senator David Vitter of Louisiana is the most prominent Republican member of Congress in favor of limiting the size and power of the biggest banks, but there are others who lean in a similar direction. The vice chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporatio consistently warns about the dangers associated with megabanks. Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, a Republican from Kansas, argues strongly for additional measures to rein in the biggest banks.

From the perspective of anyone seeking the nomination of either of America’s political parties, here is an issue that cuts across partisan lines. “Break up Citigroup” is a concrete and powerful idea that would move the financial system in the right direction. It is not a panacea, but the coalition that can break up Citi can also put in place other measures to make the financial system safer.

Megabanks are accused of abuse of power and the great rip-off of the middle class. Crony capitalism is implicit in the massive implicit government subsidies that these banks receive. Both left and right agree on the fundamental asymmetry that the recent “Citigroup Amendment” implies: Bankers get rich whether they win or lose, because the US taxpayer foots the bill when their risky bets fail.

Potential Republican presidential candidates have hesitated to take up this issue in public – perhaps feeling that it will inhibit their ability to raise money from Wall Street. Among the Democrats, however, the opportunity seems to be much more compelling; indeed, avoiding a confrontation with Wall Street might actually create problems for a candidate like Hillary Clinton who is close to Wall Street.

This idea would attract support from centrists. “Break up Citigroup, end dangerous government subsidies, and bring back the market.” The US presidential candidate who says this in 2016 – and says it most convincingly – has a good chance of winning it all.

Break up the Banks

Tobacco Bonds, Wall Street and the Raters

Cezary Polkul writes:  When the economy nosedived in 2008, it didn’t take long to find the crucial trigger. Wall Street banks had peddled billions of dollars in toxic securities after packing them with subprime mortgages that were sure to default.
Behind the bankers’ actions, however, stood a less-visible part of the finance industry that also came under fire. The big credit-rating firms – S&P, Moody’s and Fitch – routinely blessed the securities as safe investments. Two U.S. investigations found that raters compromised their independence under pressure from banks and the lure of profits.

Now there is evidence the raters also may have succumbed to pressure from the bankers in another area: The sale of billions of dollars in bonds by states and municipalities looking to quickly cash in on the massive 1998 legal settlement with Big Tobacco.

Credit-rating agencies are supposed to make independent judgments about the risks of a deal. But in their pitches for state business in tobacco bonds, bankers bragged they could manipulate the raters to get favorable treatment for their transactions.

A review by ProPublica of documents from 22 tobacco bond offerings sold by 15 state and local governments shows that bankers routinely bragged about having their way with the agencies that rated their products. The claims were brazen, the documents show, with bankers saying they routinely played one firm against its competitors to win changes to rating methods, jack up a rating or agree to rate longer-term, riskier bonds.

“Fitch reached out to UBS for input so that they would fall in line with the other ratings agencies,” UBS said after it and other financial services firms dropped Fitch from deals because of its “constraining” stress tests. Following the conversation, “Fitch amended their stress criteria,” UBS told officials in Michigan as it readied a 2006 deal.

In 2007, JPMorgan promised to negotiate Fitch to their knees if Ohio hired the bank for a $5.5 billion deal that was the largest sale, or “securitization” of tobacco settlement payments.

The 140 documents, unearthed through public records requests, show that bankers from six Wall Street firms – UBS, Bear Stearns, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs – claimed they could persuade the rating agencies to make favorable changes to their criteria.

Garnering better grades for the tobacco bonds meant the bankers could sell more of them, get a leg up on their competition and win millions of dollars in fees from the governments issuing the debt. The state and local governments were trading their annual tobacco payments for up-front cash by making the bond deals. As ProPublica has reported in a series of stories, the bonds have proved much riskier than advertised, leading to fiscal headaches for the issuers and losses for investors.

While there are no indications that the bankers did anything illegal, their claims further undermine the argument by the raters that their opinions are only the result of independent analysis.

Since the economy tumbled in 2008, the estimated $36 billion of bonds issued in the tobacco sector – like so many other corners of Wall Street – have proven to be founded on shaky assumptions.

The future may be even bleaker for a $3 billion sliver of the debt. Those securities, known as capital appreciation bonds, promised balloon payoffs so large – $64 billion, all told – that they are almost certain to default. The documents show bankers pressed rating agencies to ease criteria for evaluating those bonds as well.

ProPublica shared the tobacco bond documents with S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. All denied changing their methodologies, also known as rating criteria, in response to demands from bankers.

In an interview, Nicolas Weill, who oversees Moody’s rating methodologies for tobacco bonds and similar securities, said, “We don’t negotiate criteria.” Those criteria – such as stress tests that gauge how much cash is available to repay the bonds under various scenarios – are “never, ever’’ open to deal-by-deal changes. He said the firm may evaluate different deal structures but only if they meet those criteria.

Fitch said: “With respect to every one of the examples provided to us by ProPublica, we can affirm that no banker or other outside party unduly influenced any of these ratings decisions … We determine our ratings – they are not open to negotiation with issuers and bankers.”

S&P said “On the whole, the assertion that S&P’s cash-flow stress assumptions for tobacco settlement bonds were relaxed is false … credit ratings change because factors that affect credit risk change.”

ProPublica shared the documents with each of the banks. All declined to comment except UBS, which said the bankers involved no longer work for the firm, which exited the municipal bond business amid the 2008 market turmoil.

ProPublica also shared the materials with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which regulates rating agencies and has been working to reform the rating process since the abuses in mortgage-backed securities.

The SEC also has been investigating whether S&P bent its criteria to win ratings of commercial mortgage bonds. The regulator is now seeking to suspend S&P from that part of the business in what would be its toughest action yet against one of the big three raters.

The SEC declined to comment on the documents provided by ProPublica.

The documents give the bankers’ version of what happened, and some degree of exaggeration can be expected in any sales pitch. Nevertheless, former rating analysts, lawyers and regulatory experts who reviewed the documents said the consistency of the bankers’ claims across multiple years, deals and states, compared with known criteria changes and ratings, suggests the banks’ influence was real.

“Banks have a right to advocate for their clients – that’s normal,” said Mayra Rodriguez-Valladares, a financial regulatory consultant who reviewed the documents at ProPublica’s request. “What’s going on here is very different … this is the banks trying to convince rating analysts to make changes to their methodology, and that’s really crossing the line.”  Same Old Ratings

A Present for MF Global Holdings, Jon Corzine’s Company

Federal Court in New York Orders MF Global Holdings Ltd. to Pay $1.212 Billion in Restitution for Unlawful Use of Customer Funds and Imposes a $100 Million Penalty

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has obtained a federal court consent Order against Defendant MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MFGH) requiring it to pay $1.212 billion in restitution or such amount as necessary to ensure that claims of customers of its subsidiary, MF Global Inc. (MFGI), are paid in full. The CFTC previously filed and settled charges against MFGI for misuse of customer funds and related supervisory failures in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC Regulations (see CFTC Press Release 6776-13). MFGI was required to pay $1.212 billion in restitution to its customers, as well as a $100 million penalty. MFGH’s restitution obligation is joint and several with MFGI’s restitution obligation, pursuant to which a substantial portion of the restitution obligation has already been paid (see CFTC Press Prelease 6904-14). The consent Order, entered on December 23, 2014, by Judge Victor Marrero of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, also imposes a $100 million civil monetary penalty on MFGH, to be paid after claims of customers and certain other creditors entitled to priority under bankruptcy law have been fully paid.

The consent Order arises out of the CFTC’s amended Complaint, filed on December 6, 2013, charging MFGH and the other Defendants with unlawful use of customer funds. In the consent Order, MFGH admits to the allegations pertaining to its liability based on the acts and omissions of its agents as set forth in the consent Order and the amended Complaint.

The CFTC’s amended Complaint charged that MFGH controlled MFGI’s operations and was responsible for MFGI’s unlawful use of customer segregated funds during the last week of October 2011. In addition to the misuse of customer funds, the amended Complaint alleged that MFGH is responsible for MFGI’s (i) failure to notify the CFTC immediately when it knew or should have known of the deficiencies in its customer accounts, (ii) filing of false statements in reports with the CFTC that failed to show the deficits in the customer accounts, and (iii) use of customer funds for impermissible investments in securities that were not considered readily marketable or highly liquid, in violation of CFTC regulations.

The CFTC’s litigation continues against the remaining Defendants, Jon S. Corzine and Edith O’Brien.

Fines Levied on MF Global Holdings