Corporate Rehabilitation?

Jed S. Rakoff writes:  In Too Big to Jail, Brandon Garrett, a highly regarded law professor at the University of Virginia, presents for a lay readership a detailed and comprehensive examination of deferred corporate prosecutions, and corporate criminal prosecutions generally, and concludes that they have been, on the whole, ineffective. According to Garrett, “the big story of the twenty-first century” in corporate prosecutions is that “prosecutors now try to rehabilitate a company by helping it to put systems in place to detect and prevent crime among its employees and, more broadly, to foster a culture of ethics and integrity inside the company.”

But Garrett—on the basis of his own painstaking gathering of evidence (for neither the Department of Justice nor any other governmental entity keeps detailed and complete records of how such agreements are implemented over time)—finds that many, perhaps most such agreements, while often obscuring who was personally responsible for the company’s misconduct, fail to achieve meaningful structural or ethical reform within the company itself (a good example being the Pfizer cases described below). Nonetheless, Garrett does not urge the abandonment of deferred prosecution agreements, or of comparable non-prosecution agreements and corporate guilty plea agreements, but recommends instead that various steps be taken to improve their efficacy, including greater judicial oversight, greater use of court-appointed monitors, and greater attention to breaches of the agreements.   Does Corporate Rehabilitation Work

Corporate Rehab?

Sharp Drop in Prices in the EU

The eurozone experienced negative inflation for the second month in a row, according to a flash estimate published today (30 January) by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office. Inflation is expected to be at -0.6%, with consumer prices falling further than economists had forecast.

The fall represents the biggest decline in prices in the history of the euro. It is down from -0.2% in December. Economists had expected a -0.5% drop. A separate paper published today recorded eurozone unemployment at 11.4% in December, compared with 9.9% across the EU as a whole.

The drop was driven by the fall in energy prices (-8.9%, compared with -6.3% in December). Prices are expected to fall for food, alcohol and tobacco (-0.1%, compared with 0.0% in December) and non-energy industrial goods (-0.1%, compared with 0.0% in December). Only prices for services are expected to increase (1.0%, compared with 1.2% in December).

The deflationary spiral comes as Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), is trying to tackle deflation with a policy of quantitative easing. Last week he announced a bond-buying plan that will inject €60 billion a month into the economy from March this year until September 2016.

The ECB’s target rate for inflation is close to, but below, 2%.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and unprocessed food prices, was at 0.6% in January, down from 0.7% over the previous three months. The ECB has characterised any rate below 1% as a “danger zone”.

Headline inflation has also been in what the ECB calls the “danger zone” below 1% since October 2013. The ECB aims to keep inflation just under 2% over the medium term.

Bond Buying in EU

Currency Manipulation and Trade

Has currency manipulation had been raised in the TPP talks?  Although Congress has been pushing the administration to bring up currency provisions in the negotiations for years, doing so would significantly alter, and perhaps torpedo, the deal with Japan.

Of course, currency manipulation is difficult to combat with a domestic law — since unlike trade pacts, domestic laws are not agreements with other nations that include internationally binding enforcement mechanisms. The bill would require the Department of Commerce to include currency manipulation subsidies in its calculations of unfair trade practices prohibited under other trade pacts, making it easier for the U.S. government to win trade cases against other countries, and to secure heftier judgments.

Both Republicans and members of the Obama adminsitration stress that they are seeking a “high-standards” agreement that would counter the power of China to weaken global regulations.   Three of the countries involved in the talks — Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam — are serial human rights abusers.  They simply do not have the institutional infrastructure in place to enforce strong protections.

Is there a strong intellectual property proivision  included in TPP. Those copyright, patent and other provisions, however, are the subject of hot debate, with many tech experts warning they will crimp the development of new digital applications.

By granting pharmaceutical companies long-term monopolies on prescription drugs, moreover, those policies dramatically inflate the cost of medicine. The Indian government, for instance, recently authorized a generic version of a patented cancer medicine for $157 a month.

Doctors Without Borders, a humanitarian group that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1999, points out the human cost of these provisions.

A fast-track bill would not only apply to TPP talks, but also to another pending deal with the European Union and any other future trade pacts covered by the timeframe of the bill. Any EU deal must include a financial services chapter. European negotiators have pressed U.S. regulators to loosen financial regulations for years in other international forums. Meanwhile, Republicans seeking to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank bank reform law have crafted bills to help banks dodge U.S. oversight by substituting weaker European rules and overseers.

Froman, Obama’s representative who worked at Citigroup before joining the Obama administration in 2009, pushed back against Hatch on that issue, saying USTR did not support a bank regulatory chapter in the EU deal.

TPP?

Is Devaluation Hurting Putin?

No says Leonid Bershidsky. Russia’s central bank lowered its key interest rate from 17 percent to 15 percent today in a move few had predicted, causing the ruble to dip. This sequence of events shows the Kremlin still sees devaluation as its best friend and is eager to help banks and companies weather the crisiis.

As for the Russian people, who face double-digit inflation as a result, they are just expected to be patient while their government does its best to deal with a Western attack on Mother Russia.

The central bank had hiked the rate to 17 percent from 10.5 percent on December 16, as the ruble more or less tracked the free-falling price of oil. Meanwhile, the central bank’s 17 percent policy rate remained, and it made no one happy. Banks and companies said it was stifling all lending activity. On Jan. 13, former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, one of the most respected figures among Russian conservatives, particularly the military-industrial lobby, was sharply criticical of the central bank.

Russian business lobbied hard  to have the rate lowered. It was only a matter of time before the central bank would react; the bank’s high lending rate wasn’t serving a useful purpose anyway, because the ruble kept falling. This month it is the world’s second worst-performing currency after the Belarussian ruble.

The tricky part was lowering the rate without triggering panic. The central bank said that it estimated 2014 economic growth at 0.6 percent.

In the first six months of 2015, the central bank expects the devaluation to be insufficient to avoid negative growth of 3.2 percent. That may be because it’s underestimating the ruble’s downside potential.

There is no political will in the Kremlin to prop up the currency. Even at the current oil price, Russia will still have a healthy current account surplus, which — so long as reserves aren’t used up trying to defend the ruble — will enable Russia to handle the $105 billion in foreign debt payments due this year. With that and the ruble-based needs of Putin’s relatively poor electorate taken care of, all the government has to worry about is preventing a banking crisis and keeping industrial investment from falling too steeply, after a 2.9 percent contraction in 2014. Societe Generale predicts a 6.5 percent year-on-year investment decrease for this year, but lowering the central bank rate should theoretically ameliorate that. So expect more interest rate cuts in the coming months.

The continuing devaluation will only hurt the Russian middle class, which regularly travels overseas and buys a lot of imported goods.

There are enough people who subscribe to this kind of thinking for Putin to be confident that things will work out fine for him.  55 percent of Russians believe the country is on the right path. It’s a drop from the August high of 66 percent, but still a comfortable enough majority.

As for Putin’s personal support, it has been frozen at 85 percent for the last three months. Russia’s president is surviving sanctions and a decimated oil price just fine.

 Putin's Popularity in Russia

The End of EU Austerity?

Joschka Fischer writes:  Not long ago, German politicians and journalists confidently declared that the euro crisis was over; Germany and the European Union, they believed, had weathered the storm. Today, we know that this was just another mistake in an ongoing crisis that has been full of them. The latest error, as with most of the earlier ones, stemmed from wishful thinking – and, once again, it is Greece that has broken the reverie.

Austerity – the policy of saving your way out of a demand shortfall – simply does not work. In a shrinking economy, a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio rises rather than falls, and Europe’s recession-ridden crisis countries have now saved themselves into a depression, resulting in mass unemployment, alarming levels of poverty, and scant hope.

Warnings of a severe political backlash went unheeded. Shadowed by Germany’s deep-seated inflation taboo, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government stubbornly insisted that the pain of austerity was essential to economic recovery; the EU had little choice but to go along. Now, with Greece’s voters having driven out their country’s exhausted and corrupt elite in favor of a party that has vowed to end austerity, the backlash has arrived.

The euro, as the Swiss National Bank’s recent  move implied, remains as fragile as ever.  The subsequent decision by the European Central Bank to purchase more than €1 trillion ($1.14 trillion) in eurozone governments’ bonds, though correct and necessary, has dimmed confidence further.

If negotiations between the “troika” (the European Commission, the ECB, and the International Monetary Fund) and the new Greek government succeed, the result will be a face-saving compromise for both sides; if no agreement is reached, Greece will default.

Though no one can say what a Greek default would mean for the euro, it would certainly entail risks to the currency’s continued existence. Just as surely, the mega-disaster that might result from a eurozone breakup would not spare Germany.

A compromise would de facto result in a loosening of austerity, which entails significant domestic risks for Merkel.  Given the impact of the Greek election outcome on political developments in Spain, Italy, and France, where anti-austerity sentiment is similarly running high, political pressure on the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers – from both the right and the left – will increase significantly. It does not take a prophet to predict that the latest chapter of the euro crisis will leave Germany’s austerity policy in tatters.

There is no indication that she does. So, regardless of which side – the troika or the new Greek government – moves first in the coming negotiations, Greece’s election has already produced an unambiguous defeat for Merkel and her austerity-based strategy for sustaining the euro.

The question now is not whether the German government will accept it, but when. Will it take a similar debacle for Spain’s conservatives in that country’s coming election to force Merkel to come to terms with reality?

Nothing but growth will decide the future of the euro. Even Germany, the EU’s biggest economy, faces an enormous need for infrastructure investment. If its government stopped seeing “zero new debt” as the Holy Grail, and instead invested in modernizing the country’s transport, municipal infrastructure, and digitization of households and industry, the euro – and Europe – would receive a mighty boost.

The eurozone’s cohesion now depends on whether it can overcome its growth deficit. Germany has room for fiscal maneuver. The message from Greece’s election is that Merkel should use it, before it is too late.

Color-Greece-austerity-WEB

Wall Street and US 2016 Election

Simon Johnson writes:   America’s presidential election is still nearly two years away, and few candidates have formally thrown their hats into the ring. But both Democrats and Republicans are hard at work figuring out what will appeal to voters in their parties’ respective primary elections – and thinking about what will play well to the electorate as a whole in November 2016.

The contrast between the parties at this stage is striking. Potential Republican presidential candidates are arguing among themselves about almost everything, from economics to social issues; it is hard to say which ideas and arguments will end up on top. The Democrats, by contrast, are in agreement on most issues, with one major exception: financial reform and the power of very large banks.

The Democrats’ internal disagreement on this issue is apparent. On Dodd-Frank, Democrats differ on the extent to which they should stick up for their own reforms. In December, the White House agreed to a Republican proposal to repeal a provision of Dodd-Frank that would have limited the risk-taking of the country’s largest banks (in fact, the proposal’s language was drafted by Citigroup).

More recently, however, Obama has threatened to veto any further attempts to roll back financial reform.  He a proposing a small tax on the largest banks’ liabilities, which he hopes will encourage “them to make decisions more consistent with the economy-wide effects of their actions, which would in turn help reduce the probability of major defaults that can have widespread economic costs.”

In contrast, the Center for American Progress report devoted very little space to financial-sector reform.

But a serious challenge to all of these views has now emerged, in proposals by Senator Elizabeth Warren, a rising Democratic star who has become increasingly prominent at the national level.  In her view, the authorities need to confront head-on the outsize influence and dangerous structure of America’s largest banks.

Warren’s opponents like to suggest that her ideas are somehow outside the mainstream; in fact, she draws support across the political spectrum.

Warren’s message is simple: remove the implicit government subsidies that support the too-big-to-fail banks. That single move would go a long way toward reducing, if not eliminating, crony capitalism and strengthening market competition in the financial sector.

The big Wall Street banks have enormous influence in Washington, DC, in large part because of their campaign contributions. They also support – directly and indirectly – a vast influence industry, comprising people who pose as independent or moderate commentators, edit the financial press, or produce bespoke “research” at think tanks.

The Democrats need to figure out their policy on Wall Street. In the past, they have simply gone for the campaign contributions, doling out access and influence in exchange. It is now obvious that this is not consistent with defending what remains of Dodd-Frank.

Warren offers a plausible, moderate alternative approach to financial-sector policy that would attract a great deal of support in the general election. Will the Democrats seize the opportunity?  Hillary Clinton is on Wall Street’s payroll.

Who Sides with Wall Street?

Is QE the Answer?

Stephen S. Roasch writes:  Predictably, the European Central Bank has joined the world’s other major monetary authorities in the greatest experiment in the history of central banking. By now, the pattern is all too familiar.  Central banks take the conventional policy rate down to the dreaded “zero bound.”  They then embrace the unconventional approach of quantitative easing (QE).

Unable to cut the price of credit further, central banks shift their focus to expanding its quantity.  For the ECB and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), both of which are facing formidable downside risks to their economies and aggregate price levels, this is not an idle question. For the United States, where the ultimate consequences of QE remain to be seen, the answer is just as consequential.

QE’s impact hinges (1)  transmission (the channels by which monetary policy affects the real economy); (2) traction (the responsiveness of economies to policy actions); and (3) time consistency (the unwavering credibility of the authorities’ promise to reach specified targets like full employment and price stability).

In terms of transmission, the Fed has focused on the so-called wealth effect. First, the balance-sheet expansion of some $3.6 trillion since late 2008 – which far exceeded the $2.5 trillion in nominal GDP growth over the QE period – boosted asset markets. The ECB, however, will have a harder time making the case for wealth effects, largely because equity ownership by individuals (either direct or through their pension accounts) is far lower in Europe than in the US or Japan. For Europe, monetary policy seems more likely to be transmitted through banks, as well as through the currency channel, as a weaker euro – it has fallen some 15% against the dollar over the last year – boosts exports.

The real sticking point for QE relates to traction. The US, where consumption accounts for the bulk of the shortfall in the post-crisis recovery.

Japan’s massive QQE campaign has faced similar traction problems. After expanding its balance sheet to nearly 60% of GDP – double the size of the Fed’s – the BOJ is finding that its campaign to end deflation is increasingly ineffective. Japan has lapsed back into recession, and the BOJ has just cut the inflation target for this year from 1.7% to 1%.

Finally, QE also disappoints in terms of time consistency. The Fed has long qualified its post-QE normalization strategy with a host of data-dependent conditions pertaining to the state of the economy and/or inflation risks. Moreover, it is now relying on ambiguous adjectives to provide guidance to financial markets, having recently shifted from stating that it would maintain low rates for a “considerable” time to ‘paatience’ in determining whether to raise rates.

In the QE era, monetary policy has lost any semblance of discipline and coherence. As Draghi attempts to deliver on his nearly two-and-a-half-year-old commitment, the limits of his promise – like comparable assurances by the Fed and the BOJ – could become glaringly apparent. Like lemmings at the cliff’s edge, central banks seem steeped in denial of the risks they face.

To QE or Not?

Great Recession Haunts Us

J. Bradford DeLong looks at two books on the Great Recession and concludes that we acted incorrectly to solve the problems:

The first book is The Shifts and the Shocks, by the conservative British journalist Martin Wolf, who begins by cataloguing the major shifts that set the stage for the economic disaster that continues to shape the world today. His starting point is the huge rise in wealth among the world’s richest 0.1% and 0.01% and the consequent pressure for people, governments, and companies to take on increasingly unsustainable levels of debt.

The second book: Hall of Mirrors, traces our tepid response to the crisis to the triumph of monetarist economists, the disciples of Milton Friedman, over their Keynesian and Minskyite peers – at least when it comes to interpretations of the causes and consequences of the Great Depression. When the 2008 financial crisis erupted, policymakers tried to apply Friedman’s proposed solutions to the Great Depression. Unfortunately, this turned out to be the wrong thing to do, as the monetarist interpretation of the Great Depression was, to put it bluntly, wrong in significant respects and radically incomplete.    What Caused the Great Recession

Can We Get from QE to QED?

Dick Ehnts writes:  With quantitative easing, a central bank creates additional deposits for banks as it buys some of their assets, like bonds. What can banks do with these reserves? They can lend them out to other banks, but that is not very likely since all banks will receive additional reserves and none will lose some.

Banks can use reserves to buy financial assets, but this would increase their exposure to risk since they would have to take any losses resulting from this business. Plus the reserves are moved to the balance sheets of another bank, so we’re still unsure of where they go. In the end, the banks will move the reserves into the deposit facility at the European Central Bank, forinstanace, which offers a fantastic interest rate of -0.2%. And this creates inflation how?

Bank loans are created by banks when they mark up the deposits of their client and simultaneously create an item called loan on the asset side of their balance sheet. Banks do not need reserves to make loans, which should by now by common knowledge among macroeconomists.

The monetary circuit in the euro zone is damaged, because the private sector repays net debt. This destroys deposits, which are not available for spending. We need additional deposits to grow faster. Some confuses deposits in the central bank (reserves) with deposits in banks. Only the latter can lead to more spending and hence more inflation. Banks owning more central bank deposits will not be able to spend them on goods and services produced. QE was a failure in Japan, in the US, and the UK. It will be a failure in the euro zone as well. The only thing it does is to lower the long-term yields, but given that firms have problems with demand this will not be the cure of the aggregate demand weakness that is hurting the euro zone so much.

Creating Inflation

Ralph Nader Exposes Credit Suisse

Nader writes:  In May of 2014, financial firm Credit Suisse AG pled guilty to serious criminal charges. The giant bank aided and assisted approximately 22,000 wealthy U.S. taxpayers (whose names Credit Suisse AG escaped having to send to the Justice Department for law enforcement) for over a decade in filing false income tax returns and other documents with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

The full extent of these crimes, according to a Department of Justice news release, are as follows: “assisting clients in using sham entities to hide undeclared accounts;” “soliciting IRS forms that falsely stated, under penalties of perjury, that the sham entities were the beneficial owners of the assets in the accounts;” “failing to maintain in the United States records related to the accounts;” “destroying account records sent to the United States for client review;” “using Credit Suisse managers and employees as unregistered investment advisors on undeclared accounts;” “facilitating withdrawals of funds from the undeclared accounts by either providing hand-delivered cash in the United States or using Credit Suisse’s correspondent bank accounts in the United States;” “structuring transfers of funds to evade currency transaction reporting requirements;” and “providing offshore credit and debit cards to repatriate funds in the undeclared accounts.”

These elaborate illegal acts over many years are quite revealing. They show a deliberate willingness by Credit Suisse AG officials to knowingly engage in profitable activities that defrauded the United States Treasury and burdened honest taxpayers.

The Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, or ERISA, was enacted to protect the retirement savings of retirement plan participants. The law, in theory, automatically disqualifies institutions like Credit Suisse AG who have committed serious crimes or pled guilty to serious crimes from serving as a “qualified professional asset manager” (QPAM) of ERISA assets or pension plans.

Unfortunately, the Department of Labor has not adequately enforced this law or its regulations in this area.

The Department of Labor (DOL) already has granted Credit Suisse a temporary waiver to continue conducting their pension management business. On January 15th, the DOL held a public hearing—where I testified— to discuss whether Credit Suisse and its affiliates can continue this troubling trend of avoiding the consequences of their actions indefinitely. Credit Suisse AG is hoping to completely sidestep the mechanisms of justice for their admittedly serious crimes and carry on business as usual—a result that in itself is, unfortunately, business as usual.

This routine ability to evade proper punishment is the root of the issue of so much corporate and Wall Street crime—a slap on the wrist leads to a perpetual cycle of wrongdoing with no end in sight. Their corporate lawyers turn laws into “no-law” laws. Corporate crime pays.

The Department of Labor, which exists to defend workers, now has a unique opportunity to stand proudly at its post and to send a clear message—a firm signal—to other Qualified Professional Asset Managers that if they commit unthinkable criminal violations, they lose the ability to handle pension funds. On the other hand, allowing these institutions to continue to receive permanent waivers would be a clear signal that the DOL will tolerate cutting corners and criminal wrongdoing by powerful financial institutions at the expense of workers, complying taxpayers, democracy, and the rule of law.

Credit Suisse