GE Leaves Banking. A Dodd Frank Success Story?

For decades, General Electric was happy to reap the enormous profits that arose from its finance arm as it swelled into one of the country’s biggest lenders.

GE will beign by selling $26.5 billion worth of real estate assets, G.E. is hastening to return to its roots as one of the mightiest industrial companies in the world, whose operations include jet engines, oil drilling equipment and medical devices. What it will mostly shed is GE Capital, a lender with hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of assets.

The move announced Friday reflects the shifting landscape of the financial world, especially for the largest players. They face greater regulatory scrutiny and calls from analysts and investors to slim their operations or break up. Some are shifting their focus to areas like wealth management as traditional activities like trading prove less profitable. It is no surprise that G.E. decided to re-evaluate its role in this ecosystem.

The divestiture campaign, code-named Hubble within G.E. and put together in about six weeks, will erase one of the main legacies of the conglomerate’s vaunted former chief executive, John F. Welch Jr. But it is also a recognition that manufacturing, not finance, represents the company’s future.

“We’re not sentimentalists,” Jeffrey R. Immelt, the multinational’s current chairman and chief executive, said in an interview.

G.E.’s expansive campaign will bring other changes as well. In shrinking its far-flung empire, the company will also bring back $36 billion in cash that now resides overseas, taking a $6 billion tax hit in the process. And it will also press to relieve itself from the burdens of being considered a too-big-to-fail lender, a status that brings stricter regulatory requirements.

The wide range of asset sales will help finance a huge return of money to shareholders, which G.E. estimates will eventually reach $90 billion. About $50 billion will come from a stock repurchase, one of the biggest on record.

For years, the financial tilt looked smart and relatively easy. In an interview in 2010, Jeffrey  Immelt recalled, if a deal looked like a moneymaker, it got the nod. “And you don’t have to build a factory,” he said.

Yet the big bet on finance badly wounded G.E. after Lehman’s demise, when the market upheaval left the conglomerate hard-pressed to borrow debt for its day-to-day operations.

GE Capital

Entrepreneurs: How to Adapt

Mohamed A. El-Erian writes:  Like many readers, I still vividly recall when Nokia was the dominant player in mobile phones, with over 40% of the market, and Apple was just a computer company. I remember when Amazon was known only for books, and when dirty taxis or high-priced limousines were the only alternative to public transport or my own car. And I recall when the Four Seasons, Ritz Carltons, and St. Regises of this world competed with one another – not with Airbnb.

These changes happened recently – and fast. How did they occur? Will the pace of change remain so rapid – or even accelerate further? And how should companies respond?

Central to these companies’ success has been their understanding of a fundamental trend affecting nearly all industries: individual empowerment through the Internet, app technology, digitalization, and social media. Most traditional companies, meanwhile, remain focused on their macro environment, at the expense of responding adequately to the new micro-level forces in play.

Companies must recognize that both demand and supply factors are or will be driving the transformation of their competitive landscapes. On the demand side, consumers expect a lot more from the products and services they use. They want speed, productivity, and convenience. They want easy connectivity and expanded scope for customization. And, as the success of services like TripAdvisor show, they want to be more engaged, with companies responding faster to their feedback with real improvements.

On the supply side, technological advances are toppling long-standing entry barriers. The online car service Uber adapted existing technologies to transform a long-sheltered industry that too often provided lousy and expensive service. Airbnb’s “supply” of rooms far exceeds anything to which traditional hotels could reasonably aspire.

An existing company would have to be highly specialized, well protected, or foolish to ignore these disruptions. But, while some well-established companies in traditional industries are already looking for ways to adapt, others still need to do a lot more.

Banks are adapting, but much more slowly and hesitantly. If they are to make progress, they must move beyond simply providing apps and online banking. Their aim should be holistic engagement of clients, who seek not only convenience and security, but also more control over their financial destiny.

· First, companies should modernize core competencies by benchmarking beyond the narrow confines of their industry.

· Second, they should increase their focus on customers, including by soliciting and responding to feedback in an engaging way.

· Third, managers should recognize the value of the data collected in their companies’ everyday operations, and ensure that it is managed intelligently and securely.

· Finally, the micro-level forces that have the potential to drive segment-wide transformations should be internalized at every level of the company.

Companies that apply these guidelines stand a better chance of adapting to what is driving today’s rapid reconfiguration of entire industries.

Adaptability

What Kind of Bank Helps?

Kenneth Rogoff writes: With China set to lead a new $50 billion international financial institution, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), most of the debate has centered on the United States’ futile efforts to discourage other advanced economies from joining. Far too little attention has been devoted to understanding why multilateral development lending has so often failed, and what might be done to make it work better.

Multilateral development institutions have probably had their most consistent success when they serve as “knowledge” banks, helping to share experience, best practices, and technical knowledge across regions. By contrast, their greatest failures have come from funding grandiose projects that benefit the current elite, but do not properly balance environmental, social, and development priorities.

Dam construction is a leading historical example. In general, there is a tendency to overestimate the economic benefits of big infrastructure projects in countries riddled by poor governance and corruption, and to underestimate the long-run social costs of having to repay loans whether or not promised revenues materialize. Obviously, the AIIB runs this risk.    What Kind of Bank Helps and How

China and Infrastructure?

 

 

Are Bank Holding Companies’ Stress Tests Meaningful?

In March, the Federal Reserve and thirty-one US bank holding companies announced the results of the latest Dodd-Frank mandated stress tests.   Somehave arguedthat that the bank holding companies have strong incentives to mimic the Fed’s stress test results, since the Fed’s results are an integral part of the Federal Reserve’s supervisory assessment of capital  adequacy for these firms.  Stress Tests- Dodd Frank versus US Fed

Dodd Frank Stess Test 2015

Bank Stress Tests?

Dutch Banks

The Economist:  Misreading the public mood can be costly when the government owns your bank, as the directors of ABN AMRO found out last week. The bank has been in the hands of the Dutch state since it was bailed out in 2009 as part of the global financial crisis that also dumped Royal Bank of Scotland in the laps of British taxpayers. The Dutch government had hoped to begin privatising ABN AMRO this autumn—until the news broke that the bank’s directors had awarded themselves a salary bump of €100,000 ($107,000) a year. An outcry in parliament led the directors to forgo their raises and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Netherlands’ finance minister, to postpone indefinitely the bank’s return to the markets.

The directors’ error of judgment is perhaps understandable. As in Britain, public sentiment in the wake of the collapse was furious with fat-cat bankers. But the Dutch board had been correspondingly cautious. The directors receive no bonuses, and their raise had been approved by parliament in 2011 but renounced each year until now.

Why, despite the good economic news, is the Dutch public mood still sour? Partly because of a problem that many European governments face: they have not delivered the policies their constituents were promised. The Dutch government, like the German one, is a centrist, two-party grand coalition. In the 2012 election, leftists voted for the largest centre-left party, Labour (PvdA), in opposition to austerity and the dismantling of the welfare state. Conservatives voted for the largest centre-right party, the Liberals (VVD), in opposition to redistribution, Europe and immigration. What they got instead was a Liberal prime minister, Mark Rutte, at the head of a hybrid government whose horse-trading led to an unsatisfying mix of policies.

That Dutch government has carried out a series of far-reaching reforms which have left nobody entirely happy.

Confusingly, voters have scattered in all directions.

It all chimes oddly with a brightening economy. The government’s reforms, disruptive at first, have started working, says Dimitry Fleming, an economist at ING Bank. “People feel we have seen the major necessary reforms, so policy uncertainty is diminishing.” House prices and residential investment are rising. Exports are up. The tulips are sprouting. Maybe public enthusiasm will too.

Dutch Banks

HSBC Massaged by DOJ Nominee?

William K. Black writes:  HSBC got a sweetheart deal from the Obama administration. It laundered vast amounts of money for Mexico’s murderous Sinaloa cartel, helped bust sanctions for terrorists and mass murderers, and did not cooperate with the investigation. The U.S. Attorney in charge of the case, Loretta Lynch, refused to prosecute any of the HSBC bankers or even sue them individually. Instead, there was a pathetic non-prosecution agreement limited to HSBC.  HSBC’s Sweetheart Deal

Yellen: Fed Interest in Inequality

In a speech defending the Federal Reserve’s interest in economic inequality issues, Chairwoman Janet Yellen said more work needs to be done to understand what conditions allow people to rise up and down the income ladder in the U.S.

“We know that families are the locus of both opportunities and barriers to economic mobility,” but from that point, there remains a lot of uncertainty about the forces that affect and shape a person’s performance in the economy, Ms. Yellen said. Her comments come from the text of a speech prepared for delivery in Washington before a Fed community development research conference.

Ms. Yellen pushed back at those who have been uncomfortable with her recent comments on income inequality. Some believe that a central bank that is charged with promoting price stability and job creation has no business addressing politically-charged matters of individual economic performance. Ms. Yellen faced considerable criticism from Republicans in her last visit before congress from some legislators who believed her comments on inequality were political in nature.

In her speech, Ms. Yellen rejected these arguments. “Economic inequality has long been of interest within the Federal Reserve System,” she said, citing a 2007 speech by then-Chairman Ben Bernanke.

She said the broader public cares, too. According to a survey, “the gap between rich and poor now ranks as a major concern in the minds of citizens around the world,” she said, adding “in advanced economies still feeling the effects of the Great Recession, people worry that children will grow up to be worse off financially than their parents were.”

Ms. Yellen observed these concerns cut across ideological lines, and that it is clear it is a matter than needs more study.

When it comes to economic mobility, Ms. Yellen said more knowledge is needed on how one’s circumstances at birth affect earnings and wealth later. Family dynamics and expectations can also play a role, as well as events over which individuals have no control.

Yellen Concerned about Inequality

US Fed in the Line of Fire?

Peter Schroeder and Vicki Needham write:  With an interest rate hike looming, the Federal Reserve’s credibility is on the line.

Chair Janet Yellen has professed unflinching confidence in the Fed’s ability to steer policy back to normal. That confidence will now be put to the test as the central bank sifts through a pile of economic data to find the right time to act

The big question at the Fed is when to pull the trigger on the first interest rate increase since 2006.

Yellen has said “policymakers cannot wait until they have achieved their objectives to begin adjusting policy.”

“Doing so would create toogreat a risk of significantly overshooting both our objectives … potentially undermining economic growth and employment,” she warned.

And while the unemployment rate is one of the most prominent measures of economic health, the Fed has to rely on many other pieces of competing data to form the most complete picture it can.

The unemployment rate used to be the only number you had to look at. Now of course there are many dimensions.

How smoothly Yellen is able to steer through the first interest rate hike in nearly a decade could significantly affect the brewing debate in Congress about altering how the Fed operates.

For years, Republicans have criticized the Fed’s extremely accommodative policy, arguing it is sowing the seeds of damaging inflation and encouraging bad habits in financial markets.

Diane Swonk, chief economist of Mesirow Financial, said Yellen and Fed officials are cognizant of the political pressure as they try to lay a path for a smooth series of rate increases.

That pressure stems from the Fed’s move to stop the collapse of AIG and Lehman Brothers as the 2008 financial crisis took hold.

“The Fed has zero experience with doing what they’re doing right now because they’ve never done it before,” said Andrew Busch, editor of the political and financial newsletter The Busch Update.

Historically, Busch said, the Fed has acted late. The concern now, he said, is that the Fed will ultimately get too aggressive and go too far.

Prominent Republicans in both chambers have indicated that they will pursue some form of Fed reform, whether it be tying the bank to a formal monetary policy rule, changing the number of Fed districts nationwide or reforming how the system is audited.

If an interest rate increase leads to havoc in financial markets, it could lead to some “I told you so” from Fed skeptics who have criticized its decisions for years.

At its last policy meeting, the Fed updated its policy statement to remove language saying it would be “patient” in raising rates. At a subsequent press conference, Yellen emphasized that the change did not suggest a rate hike was imminent but that the central bank was beginning to monitor the landscape for the appropriate moment to do so. She ruled out a rate hike when the Fed next sets policy in April.

Like Bernanke, Yellen has exuded steadfast confidence in the Fed’s ability to raise rates without disrupting the overall economy. But now her reputation as an expert among experts will be put to the test.

Some  Fed-watchers believe the reform chatter will remain just that, because many policymakers ultimately will want to leave the steering of the economy to an independent central bank.

Fed in the Line of Fire?

Banking in the UAE Hot for Social Media

Emirates NBD bank hot in social media:  Emirates NBD, Dubai’s largest lender, has been ranked 25th in the world for social media in 2014, the best performance by a bank based in the Middle East.

Compiled by The Financial Brand, a USA-based online publication, its Power 100 is the only like-for-like ranking of banks’ success rate in social media platforms.

Additionally, the bank was ranked 29 on the Top 100 banks on Twitter with over 41,000 followers, and 14 for most all-time YouTube views, in the independent survey that calculates ranking based on Facebook ‘likes,’ Facebook ‘engagement rate,’ Twitter followers, Tweets sent, YouTube views and YouTube subscribers.

Neil Halligan writes: Shayne Nelson head of the NBD bank announced income was up 22 percent to $3.9bn and net profit increased by 58 percent, to $1.38bn.

In what was reportedly one of the shortest AGMs in the bank’s recent history, shareholders approved an increased cash dividend of 35 fils per share.

A 36-year veteran of the banking industry, the Perth native admits his intended career path almost didn’t happen before it started, when he missed his stop for an interview with ANZ Bank.

From bank teller to CEO, Nelson has been involved in most parts of the banking industry, firstly in Australia and later in Asia, when he moved between Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia with Standard Chartered, before taking over as CEO of its Middle East and North Africa business.  He took over at  Emirates NBD a year ago. .

Emirates NBD’s recent conservative approach means that it can cope with any potential headwinds.

“Competition is quite tough,” he admits, “but we have scale and that’s one of the big advantages that we have in the UAE, with our branch network, our loan size, our ATM network, our point of sale, and so on. We have the right mix of business between consumer and wholesale,” he adds.

And he’s also added a few products in the bank’s treasury platform to tap into some fee-earning business that foreign banks had been capitalising on.

While the results and the changes that he put in place have all been positive for Emirates NBD, Nelson does have a number of concerns, including the price of oil and the effect on liquidity.

The Al Etihad Credit Bureau has been widely welcomed by the banking industry, including Nelson, who says banks will be able to “price the risk a lot better”, but he warns there could be a drop in consumer loan demand, and therefore spending as well, as banks “get to know what they didn’t know” about their customers.

Banking in Dubai

 

Should Central Bank’s Policies be Data Driven?

The U.S. Federal Reserve wants to get monetary policy back to normal without scaring or surprising the financial markets. Now, try defining “normal,” and you can see it’s going to be difficult.

A vital instrument of abnormal monetary policy has been the promise to keep interest rates at (roughly) zero for an extended period. Once rates have been raised off that floor, this kind of time-based commitment no longer works.

Ordinarily, incoming data would (or should) dictate how quickly interest rates go up. Quite possibly, if inflation fails to rise to its 2 percent target, the data will call for more rate cuts. The point is, nobody knows what the data will say. That’s why normal policy is inherently more confusing than policy at the zero lower bound — hence more capable of springing surprises.

In speeches during the past week, both Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer delved into this.

Fischer:

With respect to forward guidance: its role has been and continues to be important in the long period in which eventual liftoff has been the key interest rate decision confronting the FOMC and the focus of market expectations. However, as monetary policy is normalized, interest rates will sometimes have to be increased, and sometimes decreased.

The challenge, it seems, is to persuade financial markets that policy really will be data-driven.

This week the Financial Times quoted William O’Donnell, a strategist at RBS Securities, expressing a widely held view: “Data dependency and psychoanalysis of the Fed will continue to hold the reins of U.S. rates.” As long as forecasters think the Fed needs psychoanalyzing, there’s a problem with the way it’s communicating.

A Taylor-type rule for monetary policy could help in presenting Fed decisions, even if it wasn’t used to dictate them. Taylor-type rules explicitly link interest rates to inflation and the amount of slack in the economy.

Fischer said that a Taylor-type rule would ignore many factors that ought to influence interest rates, and that the Fed’s policy makers have to use their judgment in reacting to special circumstances — but he also said that it “can provide the starting-point” for decisions. If the Fed leaned more openly on a data-based rule in explaining itself, it would lighten the burden on the markets’ stressed psychoanalysts.

Optimal control is a rule-based method, but much more complex than a Taylor rule. It’s forward-looking and involves minimizing the economic losses predicted by a specific economic model. Everything therefore depends on whether the model in question is any good.

Nonetheless, the two approaches have important things in common: They put structure on one’s thinking and move data center-stage.

Starting-point, baseline, whatever. Policy rules shouldn’t be followed slavishly. Nonetheless, taking them more seriously — and being seen to do so — would help.

Data