Nisid Hajari writes: When they meet on Sunday, legislators from China’s rubber-stamp National People’s Congress are expected to disregard even modest proposals to open up Hong Kong’s political system. In all likelihood the decision will provoke street protests, drive moderates into the more radical pro-democracy camp and call into question the former British colony’s standing as a global financial center and bastion of free enterprise. And for what? The good of Hong Kong, of course.
Wang Zhenmin, a Chinese law professor who sat on the committee overseeing Hong Kong’s constitution, laid out the case most blatantly on Thursday: the interests of the city’s powerful tycoons had to be safeguarded from unchecked democracy. “If we just ignore their interest, Hong Kong capitalism will stop,” he said. “Democracy is a political matter and it is also an economic matter.”
On the face of it, Beijing’s intransigence makes little sense. Pro-democracy groups proposed a system of open nominations with a much lower threshold — about 5 percent of the voting population. Even if some anti-Communist radical were able to get on the ballot, the chances of him or her winning would still be negligible. In addition, any victor would be sworn into office with an oath that acknowledges China’s suzerainty over Hong Kong; a leader could be ousted for violating it.
Compromise proposals supported by moderates would have entailed even less risk. For example, China could have expanded the nominating committee, adding more members directly elected by the public, while lowering the nominating threshold. Thus the choices available to voters would have expanded beyond a tight circle of pro-Beijing cronies without threatening China’s hold over Hong Kong.
According to Credit Suisse, a few wealthy businessmen now account for 60 percent of the city’s wealth. Those who have prospered most are engaged in sectors such as banking and real estate, where political connections matter. Hong Kong recently topped the Economist’s “crony capitalism index” just ahead of oligarch-ridden Russia. Frustration over Hong Kong’s yawning wealth gap is rising dangerously. While gross domestic product has grown about 50 percent in the past decade, median household income has only risen 10 percent.
The cost of defending the plutocrats is high. A Chinese government has raised doubts about the continued independence of Hong Kong’s judiciary and the city’s commitment to the rule of law, which have been pillars of its success. Raids this week on high-profile opposition supporter Jimmy Lai were hardly more reassuring. Perhaps leaders in Beijing feel they are defending a principle greater than the pocketbooks of Hong Kong’s elite. They have long feared that showing leniency toward Hong Kong would encourage other disgruntled parts of China, such as Tibet and Xinjiang, to demand greater autonomy.
Sooner or later, Chinese leaders are going to have to get more comfortable with the idea of autonomy in outlying regions. So far Beijing is failing.
