Ciao Chase!

Jamie Dimon and his Chase bank are crucial to the success of a €5 billion capital raised by Monte dei Paschi di Siena, which was recently found to be the worst lender in Europe by regulators. J.P. Morgan is the lead bank on the deal, charged with finding investors for the huge share sale. That is a tall order since MPS is trying to raise a sum equivalent to 7 times its current market value. No matter. Senior figures in Italy’s banking elite draw confidence from the fact that Dimon has personally been involved. “If Dimon thinks we can do this, then we probably can,” one banker told me.

Dimon was in Rome in July, ostensibly to celebrate a century of J.P.Morgan’s activities in Italy. But he paid a visit to Matteo Renzi to discuss MPS. While there, he gave a slightly od interiew odd interview to Il Sole 24 Ore, in which he was reported as saying that “government intervention in banks could have its merits.” I say odd because Dimon is a well-known critic of government.

The best solution may be to have MPS’ capital raise after the referendum. That way, if the capital raise fails, Renzi could launch a public rescue of the Siena bank without risking a public backlash that could boost the 5Star Movement in the referendum campaign. (Hey, nobody said that Italian politics was straightforward …). Since Renzi can call the referendum between October and December, that means MPS will have to wait a while to tap investors.

J.P.Morgan and the many other banks who are working on these deals will get some pretty hefty fees to arrange the share sale. Dimon’s bank should also get handsomely rewarded if in fact the bank is providing a €7 billion bridge loan to help the Atlante Fund buy MPS’ bad loans. Plus, of course, the gratitude of, and further deals from, the Italian government for helping out when needed. Plus, bragging rights. Don’t forget bragging rights.

Dimon