The Barack Obama administration went into the talks with a lot to brag about, including new fuel-efficiency standards, proposed rules on power plants and a commitment to cut emissions by as much as 25% by 2025. Meanwhile, solar power production is set to double this year for the seventh year in a row.
Except for one number: 9 percent. That’s the share of electricity generation that will come from renewable power, excluding hydroelectric sources, in 2030, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. (Include hydro, and that figure is still just 16 percent.) And that’s with the proposed power-plant rule. Without it, the EPA projects renewables will make up just 8 percent of generation capacity, or 14 percent including hydropower.
In other words, the Obama administration’s signature change to electricity production will lead to an increase in the share of power from solar, wind and similar sources of just one percentage point. The fast growth in solar and wind still isn’t fast enough to make a significant dent in the national power fleet.
Compare that with other countries. The European Commission has a target to reach 20 % renewable power by 2020. Mexico’s target is to get a third of its power from renewable sources by 2020. Even China, in its deal last month with the U.S., pledged to get 20 percent of its power from non-fossil-fuel sources by 202.
Why is the U.S. trailing on renewables, even with the new rule? One reason is how the EPA structured that rule, giving each state enormous flexibility to meet emissions targets. That flexibility includes the ability to choose whether, and how much, renewable power is used to hit those targets.
Also U.S. renewable power depends in part on better storage technologies, which the EIA says are “in early stages of development or not yet commercially avialable” When that will change is anyone’s bet; I asked the Department of Energy two weeks ago how much it’s spending on researching storage technology, and have yet to get an answer.
Why does it matter how much of the country’s power supply comes from renewables, so long as emissions are going down? Meaningful, lasting emissions reductions require moving away from fossil fuels, not just making them more efficient or shifting the distribution from oil to natural gas. “In the long term, we’re going to have to get away from gas.
If the government’s own projections are right, it means that absent more aggressive policy — such as increasing the renewable targets in the EPA’s final power-plant rule, action from Congress or tougher renewable mandates from states — the U.S. won’t break double digits on solar and wind by 2030. And at that rate, we’re not fixing the climate problem.
