Deutsche Bank Strikes Out Against Central Bank Easing

 

A Wounded Deutsche Bank Lashes Out At Central Bankers: Stop Easing, You Are Crushing Us

 Tyler Durden writes:  Ten days ago, when Deutsche Bank stock was about 10% higher, the biggest German commercial bank declared war on Mario Draghi, as we put it, warning him that any further easing by the ECB would only push stocks (with an emphasis on DB stock which has gotten pummeled over the past few months) lower. What it got, instead, was a slap in the face in the form of a major new easing program when the Bank of Japan announced it is unveiling negative rates just three days later.

Which is why overnight a badly wounded Deutsche Bank has expanded its war against the ECB to include the BOJ as well, and in a note titled “The Risks From Further ECB and BOJ Easing” it wants that with the Zero Lower Bound already breached in nearly a third of global markets, the benefits to risk assets from further easing no longer exist, and in fact it says that while central banks have hoped that such measures would “push investors out the risk spectrum” the “impact has been exactly the opposite.”

In other words, we have reached that fork in the road within the monetary twilight zone, where Europe’s largest bank is openly defying central bank policy and demanding an end to easy money. Alas, since tighter monetary policy assures just as much if not more pain, one can’t help but wonder just how the central banks get themselves out of this particular trap they set up for themselves.

Here is DB’s Parag Thatte explaining the “The risks from further ECB and BOJ easing”

The BOJ surprised with a move to negative rates last week, while ECB rhetoric suggests additional easing measures forthcoming in March.While a fundamental tenet of these measures, in particular negative rates, has been to push investors out the risk spectrum, we remind that arguably the impact has been exactly the opposite:

  • Declining bond yields have been robustly associated with larger inflows into bonds at the expense of equities. Though a large over allocation to fixed income at the expense of equities already exists as a result of past Fed QEs and a lack of normalization of rates, further easing by the ECB and BOJ that lower bond yields globally will only exacerbate the over allocation to bonds;
  • Asynchronous easing by the ECB and BOJ while the Fed is on hold risks speeding up the dollar’s up cycle, pushing oil prices lower and exacerbating credit concerns in the Energy, Metals and Mining sectors. It is notable that the ECB’s adoption of negative rates in mid-2014 which prompted the large move in the dollar and collapse in oil prices, marked the beginning of the now huge outflows from High Yield. These flows out of High Yield rotated into High Grade, ironically moving up not down the risk spectrum. The downside risk to oil prices is tempered somewhat by the fact that they look cheap and look to be already pricing in the next leg of dollar strength;
  • Asynchronous easing by the ECB and BOJ that is reflected in the US dollar commensurately raises the trade-weighted RMB and increase the risk of a disorderly devaluation by China. The risk of further declines in the JPY is tempered by the fact that it is already very (-29%) cheap, but there is plenty of valuation room for the euro to fall.

Broad-based move across asset classes towards neutral amidst uncertainties

  • US equity fund positioning inched closer to neutral; as anticipated the returning buyback bid is being offset by large persistent outflows (-$42bn ytd);
  • European equity positioning is also close to neutral amidst slowing inflows; Japanese funds trimmed exposure from very overweight levels while flows turned negative for the first time in 2 months;
  • The large short in US bond futures has started to be cut; 2y bond shorts were cut by half this week while short-dated rates futures are already long. Robust inflows into government bond funds which began this year have continued while the pace of outflows from HY and EM funds has slowed;
  • A move toward neutral was also evident in FX positions. The surprise BoJ cut to negative rates caught yen longs by surprise, with the large initial subsequent depreciation in the yen partly reflecting a paring of positions. Meanwhile, the euro rose to a 3 month high as crowded leveraged fund shorts were being covered despite the ECB’s dovish rhetoric;
  • As the dollar fell, net speculative long positions in oil rose, reflecting mainly an increase in gross longs while shorts remain at record highs; copper shorts continue to edge back from extremes; gold longs are rising.

Declining bond yields mean larger inflows into bonds at the expense of equities

  • A fundamental tenet of central bank easing has been to push investors out the risk spectrum. The impact has arguably been exactly the opposite
  • Beyond any negative signal further monetary easing sends on underlying growth prospects, historically falling bond yields with the attendant capital gains on bonds have seen inflows rotate into bonds at the expense of equities. The correlation between equities and bond yields remains strongly positive. Notably, the best period of inflows for equities was after the taper announcement in 2013 when bond yields rose sharply

Large over-allocation to fixed income already

  • Past Fed QEs, a lack of normalization of Fed rates and easing by other central banks means that a large over-allocation already exists in fixed income while the underallocation in equities remains massive
  • Additional easing by the ECB and BoJ by encouraging inflows into bonds will only exacerbate the over allocation to fixed income

Asynchronous easing behind decline in oil and flight from HY

  • Asynchronous monetary easing by the ECB or BoJ while the Fed is on hold puts upward pressure on the dollar, downward pressure on oil prices and heightens credit concerns in the Energy, Metals and Mining sectors
  • It is notable that the huge outflows from HY began to the day with the ECB’s adoption of negative rates in Jun 2014. Those outflows from HY moved into HG, ironically moving up not down the risk spectrum
  • The risk to oil prices is somewhat tempered by the fact that oil prices are cheap to fair value and look to be pricing in the next leg of dollar strength

Asynchronous easing that is reflected in a higher dollar is reflected commensurately in the trade-weighted RMB

  • By virtue of the near-peg to the US dollar, by early 2015 the trade-weighted RMB had risen along with the US dollar by 32% in trade-weighted terms and has been in a relatively narrow range since
  • A variety of Chinese economic indicators have been strongly negatively correlated with the US dollar: Chinese data surprises (-42%); IP (-65%); and retail sales (-59%)

Further dollar strength raises the risk of a disorderly Chinese devaluation

  • Asynchronous easing by the ECB and BOJ reflected in the US dollar and in turn the trade-weighted RMB increases the risk of a disorderly devaluation by China
  • The risk of further declines in the JPY is tempered by the fact that it is already very cheap (-29%), but there is plenty of valuation room for the euro to fall
  • The surprise BoJ easing in January prompted a paring of longs, while investors are unwinding short positions in the euro despite dovish rhetoric by the ECB

 

 

Reducing Illegal Ivory Trade?

It is inconceivable to imagine Africa without its elephants. Yet as poaching reaches critical levels, we are heading ever-closer to that grim reality. We take an in-depth look at why the demand for ivory skyrocketed, how the illegal wildlife trade is a threat to global security and what is being done to save Africa’s elephants from extinction.

Over the next two years, Hong Kong will embark on the world’s largest ivory burn, setting 28 tons of illegally harvested tusks aflame to signal a shift in its valuation of elephants. AsNational Geographic reports, this is actually the latest in a string of public ivory disposals around the world. China crushed six tons of tusks and ivory ornamentson January 6; the United States smashed six tons in November 2013; and the Philippines burned five tons in June 2013, making history as the first “ivory-consuming nation” to destroy almost all of its national stock. Gabon burned its stockpile in June 2012.

 

Brexit Progress?

A draft deal to reform Britain’s relationship with the European Union has fiercely divided the Square Mile, prompting cheers from big business groups and drawing sharp criticisms from sceptical economists and industry leaders.

European Council President Donald Tusk tabled a tentative agreement yesterday for a “new settlement” for the UK in the EU, and in a letter to the leaders of all 28 EU member states, Tusk said his proposals go “really far in addressing all the concerns raised” by Prime Minister David Cameron.

But Tusk added: “This has been a difficult process and there are still challenging negotiations ahead. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.”

The circulation of the draft kicks off another two weeks of high-stakes negotiations ahead of a meeting of EU leaders later this month. Cameron has said that he wants to secure a final deal at the meeting, paving the way to hold an in/out vote as soon as June.

TheCityUK and Confederation of British Industry (CBI) welcomed yesterday’s draft, calling it a “milestone” in the reform process, while the Institute of Directors said the proposals were “better than expected”.

Economists and industry leaders, however, slammed the deal, saying it fell short of earlier promises made by the Prime Minister and chancellor George Osborne.

“Britain’s business leaders and finance professionals will remain to be convinced that today’s draft deal is the right formula for a better future in Europe,” said ICAS chief executive Anton Colella.

Quidnet Capital Partners chief executive Richard Tice agreed, telling City A.M.: “There is no genuine reform in any of this. The Prime Minister talks about substantial changes, but this is a restatement of the existing system.”

Osborne wrote in City A.M. last September: “One of the greatest threats to the City’s competitiveness comes from misguided European legislation. A central demand in our renegotiation will be that Europe reins in costly and damaging regulation.”

But Jon Moynihan, former executive chairman of PA Consulting Group, said he saw little in the draft that would curb harmful regulations.  “Even the small set of concessions achieved will either be just ignored by the EU as such agreements have in the past,” Moynihan said. “They are sort of meaningless as far as business is concerned.”

Among the proposals included in the draft is a so-called safeguard mechanism protecting non-euro countries from being discriminated against by the Eurozone.

The draft calls on Eurozone countries to “respect the competences, rights and obligations of member states whose currency is not the euro” and allows the UK to call a summit of EU leaders if it is concerned about punishing Eurozone rules, including those related to financial services. But the draft stops short of allowing the UK and others to veto Eurozone legislation.

“It’s not a mechanism that has any actual impact,” Europe Economics executive director Andrew Lilico told City A.M., calling the measure “completely worthless”.

Should Central Banks Arbitrate the Global Economy?

Michael Haltman writes: The December increase was implemented despite inflation remaining well below the Fed’s target rate of 2% and in the face of a recovery that could be, at best, termed tepid.

At the time some speculated that the Fed needed to raise rates so that they would have the ability to lower them again should the economy weaken. Still others thought that to retain any credibility they needed to make a move.

Neither one of those could be called solid reasoning when making decisions impacting the U.S. economy.

And since the rate hike suggests the counterintuitive track of 2-year treasury note yields courtesy of treasury.gov…

The Federal Reserve has acknowledged that the U.S. economy has slowed down but provided little guidance about when it would raise interest rates again.

The central bank began pulling back its support for the recovery in December and signaled it anticipated increasing its benchmark rate four times this year. But weeks of turmoil on Wall Street have spurred doubts about whether the Fed will forge ahead.

For now, the central bank is standing pat. In a unanimous vote Wednesday, the Fed left the range for its benchmark interest rate unchanged between 0.25 and 0.5 percent. Its official statement emphasized the resilience of the job market despite the weakened recovery and pointed out strength in consumer spending and the housing sector.

So do we feel that the Fed as an institution with HUGE responsibilities, has a firm grasp on accomplishing its mandate?

Is the Federal Reserve, in effect the arbiter of the global financial system is run by academicians with little to no actual experience with business.

The Federal Reserve has no need to innovate or to push the envelope.

Government in effect has no responsibility to a bottom-line or a need to grow in any way other than raising taxes to bring in more revenue or to increase infrastructure to create more jobs.

Either way, whether through taxes or through government growth, the cost is borne by you and I, the taxpayer.

To further compound the problem of government bureaucrats setting policy for businesses and individuals is that I would venture to guess that many if not the majority have little to no actual business experience.

A perfect example might be the government mandated minimum wage of $15 an hour that might sound great to the voter, but will undoubtedly have unintended consequences politicians can’t be bothered with worrying about.

The above mentioned description certainly seems to be the case with Fed Chair Janet Yellen, an appointed government official who has much of the worlds financial future (at least in the near to medium-term) in her hands.

Yellen

Should Central Bank Assets Have a Policy Purpose?

Emily EIsner of the NY Fed writes: The main liabilities of central banks are typically currency (banknotes) and reserves, a form of money that can only be held by banks at the central bank  Banks use reserves to make payments among themselves and to the central bank. In addition, some central banks issue deposits to the government. These accounts function as the government’s “checking account” at the central bank.

Typical Central Bank Liabilities

The Federal Reserve was a central bank that, before the crisis, held mostly currency as its main balance sheet liability. Currency represented 93 percent of the Fed’s liabilities in December 2006, with reserves only 1.5 percent and the Treasury’s general account half a percent. Currency is a sizable liability on most central bank balance sheets in normal times.

Other central banks had a much larger share of their liabilities as reserves before the crisis. One reason to issue a lot of reserves in normal times is to help interbank payments run smoothly; if the supply of reserves is small, banks concerned about running out of reserves at the end of the day may choose to delay payments to other banks, which can create “gridlock.”

As an example, the Norges Bank issued a relatively large amount of reserves before the crisis – 7 percent of its liabilities. Almost 50 percent of the liability side of the Norges Bank balance sheet at the end of 2006 was made up of treasury deposits, and currency represented only 16 percent of liabilities, so its balance sheet looked more like the figure below.

Central Bank Liabilities with a Large Share of Government Deposits

Currency and reserves are “immediate” maturity liabilities, since they can be instantly transferred to other parties for payment. Some central banks also issue term maturity liabilities, either term deposits, which are only available to counterparties that hold a central bank account, or term repos, which are collateralized and available to counterparties beyond depositing institutions. Some central banks have the authority to issue bills. Like Treasury bills, central bank bills are available to nonaccount holders in the secondary market, although some central banks restrict primary issue to account holders. Term liabilities can be issued both to reduce the amount of reserves in the system and to control the central bank’s target interest rate. (This composition is depicted in the figure below.)

Central Bank Liabilities with Term Funding

For instance, the Bank of England (BoE), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Fed, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been fine-tuning term deposit facilities and repo instruments that have longer maturities than overnight. The BoE, the ECB, the Swiss National Bank, and the RBA are among the central banks that have the ability to issue bills, the Fed does not currently have this authority. Central Bank Assets

 

 

EU Gives One Billion to Turkey for Refugees

The EU has approved €3bn ($3.3bn; £2.2bn) in funding to help Turkey cope with record numbers of Syrian migrants.

The organisation hopes the fund will lower the number of arrivals into EU nations.

Under the deal, the EU’s executive is contributing €1bn to the fund, while the 28 member states will contribute the rest.

More than a million migrants reached the EU last year by sea, many of them travelling through Turkey.

Turkey is home to nearly three million refugees, most of them fleeing the conflict in neighbouring Syria.

A deal was struck last year between Turkey and the EU, offering Turkey funding and political concessions in return for tightening its borders.

However, financing was only secured on Wednesday after Italy dropped its objections.

Italy had questioned how much of the money should come from EU budgets but the measure has now passed unanimously.

Welcoming the move, European Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans said: “The money we are putting on the table will directly benefit Syrian refugees in Turkey.

“I also welcome the measures already taken by the Turkish authorities to give Syrian refugees access to the labour market and to reduce the flows.”

Map of arrivals

 

Exploitation of Missing Refugee Children?

Are missing refugee children being exploited?

More than 10,000 refugee children have disappeared in the past two years after registering for asylum in Europe, European Union law enforcement agency Europol warned, as EU leaders looked to stem the flow of migration ahead of warmer weather. Cold winter temperatures and increasingly dangerous sea conditions have not stopped tens of thousands of people from trying to make the risky journey to Europe in January, and young children face added dangers of exploitation both along the trip and upon arrival in the EU.

“Not all of them will be criminally exploited; some might have been passed on to family members,” Europol Chief of Staff Brian Donald said, Agence France-Presse reported Sunday. “We just don’t know where they are, what they’re doing or whom they are with,” said Donald, noting that the 10,000 figure was likely a conservative estimate.

Escalating violent conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa sent more than 1 million people to seek asylum in Europe in 2015, with more than half of them coming from war-torn Syria. While around 27 percent of all refugees that have arrived since 2015 are children, recent research from the United Nations reported that in January, around 55 percent of new asylum-seekers in Europe were women or children.Europol’s report on missing refugee children looked at those who registered as asylum-seekers at some point in Europe and then disappeared. Around 5,000 of the 10,000 missing children disappeared in Italy, a country that has been a popular point of entry for tens of thousands of refugees looking to cross into Europe via the Mediterranean Sea — often coming from North Africa.

Greece has been another frequent point of entry because of its close proximity to Turkey, and EU leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel have looked to stem the flow of refugees traveling from Greece to northern European countries like Sweden and Germany. European authorities have attempted to slow migration by creating a bottle-neck in Balkan countries like Macedonia by adding additional border guards and police vehicles as leaders look for a permanent solution to the crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported.

“So no matter what, we need to prevent the influx from massively increasing again in the spring,” German Interior Minister Thomas de Maziere said, as reported by German magazine Der Spiegel, adding, “time is running out.”

Can Public Corporations Come up with Good Governance Proposals?

Stephen Foley  writes: The world’s largest asset managers have held secret summit meetings to hammer out proposals for improving public company governance to encourage longer-term investment and reduce friction with shareholders.

Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, and Warren Buffettconvened the sessions with the heads of BlackRock, Fidelity, Vanguard and Capital Group to work on a new statement of best practice that would cover the relationship between U.S. companies and their investors.

The unusual collaboration comes at a time of rising shareholder activism and a raging debate about whether public markets demand short-term profits at the expense of long-term investment.

In recent years, some private companies have shunned early public listings, and technology bosses such as Michael Dell have argued that equity markets are too focused on short-term gains. Some large technology groups have also opted to go public with dual-class share structures that limit shareholder rights in an effort to minimise the influence of activist hedge funds.

The asset management bosses, including Abby Johnson of Fidelity,Larry Fink of BlackRock and Tim Armour of Capital Group, met most recently at JPMorgan’s New York headquarters.

The group is discussing a statement of best practice on corporate governance. Discussions have focused on issues such as the role of board directors, executive compensation, board tenure and shareholder rights, all of which have been flashpoints at U.S. annual meetings.

Mr. Dimon, in particular, has reason to hope for a rapprochement between boards and long-term shareholders. He has faced personal criticism for combining the role of chairman and chief executive at JPMorgan, and at the company’s last two annual meetings, more than a third of its shareholders voted that he should split the roles.

As well as being a major player in capital markets, JPMorgan also has an asset management arm that is one of the U.S. equity market’s largest investors, with $1.7 trillion in assets. Mr. Buffett, a long-time friend of Mr. Dimon, has eschewed many corporate governance norms at his company, Berkshire Hathaway.

No participants agreed to be quoted on the initiative, which is not expected to come to fruition for several months. The asset managers hope to come up with a list of best practices that they will support at the companies they invest in.

The move comes amid a debate on shareholder rights and responsibilities and on the balance of power between investors, boards and management. Activist hedge funds with more than $100 billion in assets have used their muscle to demand board changes and push companies to increase returns to shareholders, often through share buybacks.

The largest companies typically face a half-dozen or more votes from dissident shareholders at each annual meeting, on topics ranging from executive compensation to environmental policies and political lobbying.

An increasing number of U.S. companies have also agreed this year to offer long-term shareholders the right to nominate their own candidates for board directors.

Jamie Dimon

Sandberg and Lagarde Speak for Women?

Do Sheryl Sandberg  and Christine Lagarde represent women?

Dawn Foster: Will young women be convinced that the freedom they’ve inherited is part of the natural state of affairs and not the temporary outcome of a long battle that is still being waged, and in which everything could suddenly be lost”.

Anyone familiar with abortion rights campaigns, for example, knows this to be true. Reproductive freedoms have been hard won in many countries, but millions of women worldwide are still denied the right to abortion, and religious groups are committed to chipping away at reproductive rights across the globe.

Women’s rights are precarious. It’s not simply a question of marching towards a more equal future: we have to keep an eye on the past too. For every battle won, there remain people who will happily reverse those decisions and cast women back decades in terms of social progress. This is the problem with using individual women’s successes as bellwethers of feminist progress. Sheryl Sandberg (COO of Facebook), Marissa Mayer (CEO of Yahoo!) and Christine Lagarde (managing director of the International Monetary Fund) may talk about women’s equality, and proffer their own positions as proof of progress – but post-crash, many women feel their lives are measurably worse.y.

It’s all well and good to encourage women in business to speak up more in meetings, but most women don’t – and will never – work in managerial roles. And for them, being told women must be the architects of their own fortune won’t wash. A broader understanding of how inequality is perpetuated, and how the economy disadvantages women, can yield policy that is fairer to women.  Representative Women

 

 

Impact of Banks on the Economy

Katrina Brindle writes:   On the morning of September 15 2008, the Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, introducing a chain of events that would throw Wall Street and the global market into a state of crisis and economic paralysis. Delegates assuming the roles of key figures in both the private and public sectors of the US economy were introduced to this crisis during the second “Too Big to Fail” committee meeting at McMUN. While certain ideological divisions between representatives for the federal government and CEOs of financial juggernauts within the committee were to be expected, the cleavages found within this crisis extended much further than the domestic squabble about who would be truly to blame for such systemic financial failures.

CEO of Goldman Sachs Lloyd Blankfein proposed a directive emphasizing the importance of reaching out to foreign markets to help mitigate this meltdown. He insisted that there is no use for a “fatalist attitude” when facing this kind of adversity. Unfortunately, this commitment to reject any pessimistic or reactionary stance did not sit well with France’s foreign policy, and the country decided to freeze all US trading assets as an expressly punitive action. What France’s Minister of Finance Christine Lagarde demanded from the committee was to act in ways which would restore confidence and trust in the American economy, a demand that was echoed by an American public on the precipice of a recession and devastating financial loss.

The 2008 crisis was not only one of financial turmoil, but one that spoke directly to the psychological ramifications of having the “American Dream” ripped out of the foundation of a country built on the pillars of prosperity and a successful free market economy. Stabilizing banks could be done through federal bailouts and foreign investment, but how could one influence a country’s public perception in any meaningful way during a time of such urgency? After the stunning announcement from the French Minister of Finance, the committee stayed true to its goals of overcoming political differences and passed five different directives by the end of the session, one of which directly targeted public perception of the crisis. “Keep Confidence High”, proposed by Lloyd Blankfein, Ken Lewis and Ron Logue, suggested that the federal government should lower interest rates to 2%, in order to increase liquidity and bail out mid-market troubled banks, but most importantly encouraged an increased transparency in the government handling of this market failure, through public announcements and updates.

As the market failure unfolds and the problems that are given to the delegates will exponentially grow in complexity, the issue of assigning guilt and culpability will become increasingly less relevant. In order to survive this simulation, the delegates cannot simply formulate policies that satisfy the demands of foreign finance ministers. They will have to answer to the fears and insecurities of the American public, the body that has the most to lose in the blame game of Wall Street.

Tentacles of the Big Banks