Does the Clintons’ Money Matter?

Daniel Halper writes:  Wealthy Americans who seek to amass political power have always been able to do so with relative ease, as long as they go about it with skill. Until recently, however, it has not been the case (as it is in many countries) that political power has been a precursor to, or a significant factor in, the accumulation of immense wealth.

Peter Schweizer in his important new book, Clinton Cash: The Untold Story of How and Why Foreign Governments and Business Helped Make Bill and Hillary Rich writesWhen Hillary entered the Senate, and then the State Department, she became the one who had real power, rather than Bill.”

Schweizer sets out to provide a window into just how the former president and former secretary of state (and perhaps future president) left the White House “dead broke,” as Hillary Clinton claimed in a book-tour interview last year, before earning at least $136.5 million in the decade and a half since then.

Bureaucratic or legislative obstacles were mysteriously cleared or approvals granted within the purview of his wife, the powerful senator or secretary of state. Huge donations then flowed into the Clinton Foundation while Bill received enormous speaking fees underwritten by the very businessmen who benefited from these apparent interventions.

Sometimes the money would go directly to Bill Clinton’s personal bank account, other times to the family foundation. There was also the case involving the telecom company Ericsson, which invested in Bill Clinton’s biggest single payday: $750,000 for a 2011 speech in Hong Kong. A week after the speech, “the State Department unveiled its new sanctions list for Iran. Telecom was not on the list.”

There was Hillary Clinton’s push as secretary of state to have Russia buy airplanes from Boeing.   Two months after the American company and the Russians inked the deal, Boeing gave $900,000 to the Clinton Foundation.

Schweizer offers details about a financial windfall after Bill was befriended by those seeking to buy a share of America’s uranium supply and about how the former president helped give prominence and credibility to the strongman in Kazakhstan.

The majority of the examples Schweizer provides are of business conducted in countries ruled by despots. This is because, as he explains, “in places like Germany or Great Britain…business and politics are kept separate by stringent ethical rules and procedures, but in despotic areas of the developing world…rules are very different.”

But there is no definitive proof of any quid pro quo at work in this lawyerly book: Schweizer even allows that in certain instances, it may very well be pure coincidence

There is much talk that Mrs. Clinton would be a pathbreaking president should she win in November 2016. That would surely be true, but it would be as much for her innovations in blurring the lines between political power and personal economic gain as it would be for her gender.

Clinton Money

Warren and Cummings Request Update on Investigation of Federal Reserve Leaks

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, and Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Maryland have asked the Federal Reserve Board for a briefing about its investigation into a leak of confidential Fed policy deliberations two years ago.
They sent their request to Scott G. Alvarez, the board’s general counsel, saying that neither Alvarez
“Nor any other Federal Reserve official has made public any information about the conduct of the investigation or its outcome.”

The two wrote:
“We are disturbed by this lack of transparency regarding such an important topic. This leak contained key market-moving information, violated Federal Reserve policy on disclosure, and may have represented a violation of federal law.”
Details from discussions of the Federal Open Market Committee found their way into a financial analyst’s private newsletter. The leak occurred in October 2012, the day before the scheduled public release of committee meeting minutes that promised to shed new light on a third round of bond buying to boost the economy.

The newsletter revealed what the minutes would say as well as fresh details about the Fed’s internal plans and deliberations – information that could have provided traders with an edge. Then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke asked Alvarez and the board’s secretary to look into the matter. The Fed never revealed the investigation and only publicly acknowledged the leak in a response to a freedom of information request by ProPublica.

The Fed confirmed receiving the letter but had no comment beyond saying it would respond.

Warren is the ranking minority member of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Economic Policy and Cummings is the ranking minority member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

The letter asks Alvarez to brief Warren and Cummings’ respective staffs by Feb. 15.

The letter lays out five questions the two would like answered, including whether the inspector general or the FBI was involved in looking into the matter; the status of the investigation; and what the Fed has done to prevent such leaks in the future.

Market Making Info from the Fed

Lessons for Business from China’s Corruption Crackdown?

Vivvienne Bath writes: The scope of China’s campaign against corruption has been broad, and has swept up officials and businessmen, as well as their assets, both inside and outside China. Foreign owned companies operating in China have also found themselves under official and public scrutiny.

A conviction for bribery or for other white-collar crimes such as embezzlement can result in a substantial penalty, including a lengthy period of imprisonment or even the death penalty.

In September 2014, for example, GSK China, a subsidiary of GlaxoSmithKline. was fined almost US$500 million by the Changsha Intermediate Court in Hunan Province after a one day trial for paying bribes to non-government personnel, while four of its employees were also convicted (although given suspended sentences).

The commitment of the current government to prosecuting corruption has proved to be unexpectedly far-reaching. It has also had a number of economic effects, particularly by reducing gift-giving and hitting the luxury goods market.

Changes to the judicial system are  designed to reduce local protectionism by establishing divisional tribunals of the Supreme People’s Court and cross-jurisdictional tribunals; to improve judicial efficiency by establishing a civil service career structure and to discourage judges from avoiding potentially difficult issues by refusing to accept cases.

Does this mean the crackdown on corruption and the plans for judicial reform represent the commitment of Xi Jinping’s government to the implementation of the rule of law through a strong and independent legal and judicial system?

In relation to the reduction of corruption and the creation of a cleaner business environment, the answer to this is “probably not.” Although in January of this year, Xi Jinping ordered Party committees to enable judges and law enforcement departments to exercise their duties independently, he also emphasised the leadership of Party committees in judicial affairs and the importance of judges and procurators being loyal to the Party, the State and the people.

Despite the many improvements in the content of China’s laws and the quality of Chinese lawyers, judges and judicial system, the campaign against corruption, including decisions to investigate and prosecute corruption of officials and, in the case of officials, the entire investigation, is driven and run not by the police, the procuratorate and the courts, but by the leadership of the Communist Party.

In the case of foreign companies, there is a lack of transparency in the decision-making process relating to investigations which makes it easy to attribute political drivers to decisions to pursue foreign multinationals. This does not, however, reduce their potential legal liability.

Waiting until the trial to defend corruption charges would be a very risky strategy. After the verdict relating to GSK China was handed down, GlaxoSmithKline recognised its responsibility by taking steps to rectify the issues with its operations in China, by decoupling sales targets from compensation, reducing and changing engagement with doctors and expanding its control over invoices. Other foreign companies in China would do well to take the same precautions.

Corruption in China

Inadvertent Currency Wars?

Mohamed el a Erian writes:  Six and a half years after the global financial crisis, central banks in emerging and developed economies alike are continuing to pursue unprecedentedly activist – and unpredictable – monetary policy. How much road remains in this extraordinary journey?

In the last month alone, Australia, India, Mexico, and others have cut interest rates. China has reduced reserve requirements on banks. Denmark has taken its official deposit rate into negative territory.

Even the most stability-obsessed countries have made unexpected moves. Beyond cutting interest rates, Switzerland suddenly abandoned the policy  of partly pegging the franc’s value to that of the euro. A few days later, Singapore unexpectedly altered its exchange-rate regime, too.

More consequential, the European Central Bank has committed to a large and relatively open-ended program of large-scale asset purchases.

Even the US Federal Reserve, which is presiding over an economy that is performing far better than its developed-world counterparts,  keeps interest rates low.

This new round of central-bank activism reflects persistent concerns about economic growth. Despite a once-unthinkable amount of monetary stimulus, global output remains well below potential, with the potential itself at risk of being suppressed.

Weak demand and debt overhangs are fueling concerns about deflation in the eurozone and Japan.

If weak demand and high debt were the only factors in play, the latest round of monetary stimulus would be analytically straightforward. But they are not. Key barriers to economic growth remain largely unaddressed – and central banks cannot tackle them alone.

Central banks cannot deliver the structural components – for example, infrastructure investments, better-functioning labor markets, and pro-growth budget reforms – needed to drive robust and sustained recovery. Nor can they resolve the aggregate-demand imbalance.

IMonetary-policy instruments have become increasingly unreliable in generating economic growth, steady inflation, and financial stability.

The divegene of economic and monetary poicy among three of the world’s most systemically important economies – the eurozone, Japan, and the United States – has added another layer of confusion for the rest of the world, with particularly significant implications for small, open economies.

Of course, not all currencies can depreciate against one another at the same time.

The first condition is America’s continued willingness to tolerate a sharp appreciation of the dollar’s exchange rate. Given warnings from US companies about the impact of a stronger dollar on their earnings – not to mention signs of declining inward tourism and a deteriorating trade balance – this is not guaranteed.

Still, as long as the US maintains its pace of overall growth and job creation – a feasible outcome, given the relatively small contribution of foreign economic activity to the country’s GDP – these developments are unlikely to trigger a political response for quite a while. The second condition for broad-based currency depreciation is financial markets’ willingness to assume and maintain risk postures that are not yet validated by the economy’s fundamentals.

In any case, central banks will have to back off eventually. The question is how hard the global economy’s addiction to partial monetary-policy fixes will be to break – and whether a slide into a currency war could accelerate the timetable.

Currency Wars?

Women Wearing Their Voices

More than any other form of mass communication, the internet has drastically changed how we transmit information, ideas and opinions to one another. From the exile of leaders during the height of Arab Spring, to the organized marches against police brutality in major cities across the U.S, the role of social media has had profound impacts in societies around the globe.While the internet has revolutionized social movements in unprecedented ways, the negative impacts of social media are real, where a single tweet can leave damaging and lasting effects. Hiding behind a mask of anonymity, cyber bullies can be found lurking in forums, chat rooms, and popular social networking sites waiting to strike out their next victim.Emerging from the silence are those lending their voices to give power back to the unheard.

Wear Your Voice Magazine recognizes 30 of the most socially influential women on social media who are unapologetically reclaiming their space on the internet one tweet at a time. Learn more about the women in the infograph below, and follow them to be inspired and stay socially informed.  The Women:

Women Wearing Voices

 

Gender Equality in Australia

Elizabeth Broderick, sex discrimination commissioner, Australian Human Rights Commission

For a long time I was firmly of the view that increasing the number of women leaders was a matter of women’s activism, and women working together. Yet while women’s activism remains critical to making progress, if you look at the levers of power in nations and in organizations, they rest in the hands of men. And to continue to rely on women alone to disrupt the status quo is really an illogical approach. I realized that unless we worked with the men in power—and helped them move from being merely interested in this subject to taking action—we wouldn’t see the transformative change we need.

This is not about men speaking for women or “saving” them. This is about men standing up beside women and saying, “The promotion of gender equality in Australia, and the world, is everyone’s business.” It should not sit on the shoulders of women alone. It’s about men accepting responsibility to create change.

The first couple of meetings were a bit awkward, as the tendency—human nature, really—was for people to talk about all the good things they were doing. Relatively quickly, though, the tone of the discussion became much more authentic and honest. “This is hard,” several admitted. “In fact, it’s the hardest thing I do as a CEO. I don’t know what the answers are; I’m trying everything but nothing seems to be working.” They all recognized that no one had the answers, but at the same time everyone agreed these were leadership issues that started with them, and that collectively, we could change things.  Gender Equality in Australia

Gender Equality

USDOJ Focuses on Currency Trading

Regulators are beefing up investigations pertaining to foreign exchange (forex) misconduct committed by several global banks. Recently, two global banking giants – UBS Group AG (UBS) and Barclays PLC (BCS – Analyst Report) have come under further scrutiny of the US Department of Justice (DOJ).

The DOJ is investigating whether the Swiss banking giant UBS and UK-based Barclays sold forex structured products concealing the profit the banks were deriving from currency trades which were used to generate the products’ returns.

In the banks’ products in question, while trading, an investor sells in a low-yielding currency and purchases in a higher yielding currency. Notably, UBS’ product – UBS V10 Enhanced FX Carry Strategy – allows investors to shift their positions in a volatile currency market. The DOJ is scrutinizing whether UBS derived profits from switching positions, and whether the company revealed profits to its clients.

‘Optimised currency carry strategy’ is a similar product offered by Barclays that has been targeted by the DOJ.

DOJ’s enquiry includes several other banks that are suspected to have misrepresented pricing for the currency transactions and this substantially expands its investigation into the forex market manipulation.

Global authorities are investigating in the $5.3 trillion-a-day forex market as traders at several banks are believed to have conspired jointly and misused information about client orders, which led to the price manipulation. Also, the metal business of a number of banks has come under the regulatory scrutiny in recent times.

Notably in Nov 2014, UBS along with four other major global banks – Citigroup Inc.,  HSBC Holdings plc, Bank of America Corp.and JPMorgan Chase & Co. were slammed with a $3.4 billion fine by U.S., British and Swiss regulators related to forex market manipulation.

As per the findings of The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA, UBS had inadequate risk management, controls and compliance in its forex trading.

While FINMA concluded its ‘enforcement proceedings’ against UBS with respect to the  forex trading, the regulator is investigating against the bank’s 11 ex and current employees in the related matter.

Apart from FINMA, the Swiss Banking giant had also reached settlements with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) over the regulators’ industry-wide probe into inconsistencies foreign exchange market.

UBS has been striving to expedite its internal forex and precious metals business investigations. The company is believed to be in separate discussions over a forex settlement with the DOJ’s criminal division, which may not be reached before Apr 2015.

Barclays was not part of the huge settlement of November. However, an investigation by the FCA is continuing over the company. Notably, in May 2014, Barclays was fined £26 million by the FCA for fixing gold prices.

Regulatory authorities are investigating scandals further related to the heightening foreign exchange rate fixing and are determined to put forward a landmark judgment to terminate such practices in the future, bring justice to the sufferers and punish the wrongdoers.

Currency Trading

Women: Big Emerging Market

In many ways, Sallie Krawcheck said, women are a larger emerging market than China.

Krawcheck, chairwoman of the Ellevate network for professional women, spoke to the crowd gathered on Monday morning in New York for the IMCA 2015 New York Consultants Conference about the significant opportunity available for financial advisors in the largely untapped market that is women.

“What if I told you there’s a potential client base that holds a majority of wealth in this country, represents 45% of U.S. millionaires, will inherit 70% of the $41 trillion that enters generational wealth transfer over the next 40 years?” Krawcheck said. “Ninety percent of them control their money on their own at some point in their lives; they represent today 60% of college students and a greater percent of graduate students and still growing. They start more businesses at twice the rate of the rest of the population. They’re first-time homebuyers at a greater rate than the rest of the population. They’re breadwinners or co-breadwinners in 60% of households, and they live longer than the rest of the population by 6 to 8 years and they’re healthier while doing so. You’d say, ‘That’s one helluva market, Sallie.’”

This potential client base Krawcheck is talking about? It’s women.

“Women are huge and they’re underserved,” Krawcheck said. Adding, “When we step back and think about it, our business is a business by men, for men. I always say here, ‘I have nothing against middle-aged white guys. I’ve been married to a couple of them.’ But we’re going to have to think differently if we want to attract and approach and engage with this enormous market.”

The majority of woman-held wealth is unmanaged, Krawcheck said, pointing to data gathered by weekly polls of the nearly 34,000 professional women that are Ellevate members.

Just 14% of the women in the Ellevate network said the industry meets their needs well, and three-quarters of Ellevate’s members do not have a financial advisor.

“And these ladies, I’m telling you, are right in the spot of what’s attractive to our industry,” Krawcheck said.

Of the Ellevate members that do have a financial advisor, two-thirds of them said the advisor doesn’t understand them.

“Women report that they feel this industry talks down to them, patronizes them and doesn’t meet their needs,” she said. “It’s no wonder that women rank our industry 33 out of 33 — dead last — of the industries that serve them.”

“Women report back that our industry is way too complex, way too complicated. And the language we use, the jargon we use? Way too much,” Krawcheck said. Women don’t care what an “alpha” is, a “bip” is, a “standard deviation” or a “Monte Carlo simulation” is, she said. “And when we use jargon with them,” she added, “they pull back.”

“Women tell us they’re not interested in talking about IBM stock vs. HP stock, non-issue and large-cap value vs. small-cap value, or this money manager with this performance vs. that one, or this active ETF vs. that managed account,” Krawcheck said.

Most women, according to Krawcheck, aren’t interested in where the stock market is going. “They’re not particularly interested in whether their investments are outperforming because it doesn’t directly matter to reaching their goals,” she said.

Women also aren’t interested in the “whiz-bang products we have, the latest innovation in liquid alts, what an inverse ETF does,” Krawcheck said. What do women want? “They want to be served, not marketed to. Served, not marketed to,” Krawcheck repeated for emphasis, adding, “And they know the difference.”

Overall, Krawcheck said women look to advisors to provide them a safe place.

Krawcheck

 

Equity Capital Requirements for Banks?

The New York Federal Reserve comments:  Do riskier banks have more capital?  Banking companies with more equity capital are better protected against failure because they can absorb more losses without becoming insolvent.  How has the relationship between capital and risk evolved over time?

There is not question that banks’ capital policies have become more precautionary in recent years. The Federal Reserve has implemented annual supervisory stress tests which are explicitly designed to remain well-capitalized even under severe macroeconomic downturns.  Improved risk management, greater awareness of downside risks and changes in supervisory practices have also had an impact. Equity capital should be the focus.

Banking

No New US Sanctions Against Iran?

Obama has succeeded in persuading the US Congress and other interested parties that Netanyanhu is wrong about Iran.  We have to worry about our long term relationship with the country.  To impose new sanctions as the US thrashes its way through complex negotiations on nuclear materials and nuclear weapons would be a big mistake.

A President who had his legs chopped off six months ago is walking again.

Iran and Sanctions