Google to Teach High School Girls to Code

 

Google’s diversity report last month revealed just how white and male the company — and the tech industry as a whole — really is. But in a first step to correct the disparity, the company has launched a new initiative to help get school-age girls interested in coding.  Made with Code.

By the numbers, women make up half of the economy’s workforce but are seldom represented in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields. Women only make up about 25 percent of STEM jobs and have even lower representation in tech alone.

Google reported they employ only three women for every seven men, and just 17 percent of their tech workers are women. Yahoo introduced its own diversity program.  Both companies also reported low rates of women in leadership positions. Yahoo only had 15 percent women in tech supervisory roles, compared to 21 percent at Google, which has no female executives and only one woman on its senior leadership team.

But the lack of women in the tech workforce goes beyond 24/7 jobs and pizza rinds.  Less than 20 percent of high school girls take the advanced placement (AP) computer science test, or go on to earn a college degree in the subject. While AP computer science courses aren’t available at most schools, two states didn’t have a single female student take the test in 2013.

Girls also tend to be steered away from STEM, and many develop negative views of the field early on.  While 80 percent of high school students are clueless as to what computer science majors learn, female students unfamiliar with the subject often associated it with words such as “boring” and “hard.”

Made With Code aims to close the gap by showing girls that there’s more to coding than it seems. Girls will be able to design 3-D printed bracelets or create songs using Blockly coding technology, which lets users build programs with blocks of code rather than typing it in manually. The program spotlights women who are dancers, music producers, cinematographers and humanitarians and shows how they all use coding to do their jobs. Google is also sponsoring and partnering with similar initiatives nationwide such as Girls Who Code, Black Girls Code and Technovation.

Computer Programming

 

How China Succeeds in Negotiating Three Key Features of Monetary Policy

Conventional economics suggests that you can only maintain two out of the three key factors:  monetary policy independence, a fixed exchange rate and free cross-border currency flows.  China is succeeding in doing all three at once.  Yu YongDing shows how:

China has run a capital-account surplus for most of the last 30 years, and a trade surplus every year since 1993. The PBOC keeps the exchange rate stable by intervening heavily in the foreign-exchange market, creating so much liquidity that the authorities must engage in massive sterilization to avoid overshooting the targeted increase in the monetary base.

In China, unlike in advanced countries, monetary and sterilization policy are often one in the same. The degree to which monetary policy is expansionary depends on the degree to which the liquidity created by currency-market intervention has been sterilized.

The most frequently used monetary instrument in sterilization is open-market operations. Given China’s twin surpluses, the PBOC sold all of the government bonds that it had accumulated in 2003, so it has been selling central-bank bills ever since, with CN¥5 trillion ($812 billion) in such bills currently held by banks.

Monetary Policy

 

Inequality and Personal Income Taxes in the US

Our analyst and commentator Lloyd McAulay writes:  Discussion of the increase in economic inequality became noticeably more frequent recently. The best selling Thomas Piketty book on “Capital” has prompted much of the discussion. A main technique for reducing inequality has been through the tax code. This article discusses the personal income tax code with reference to the United States. Other articles will discuss the business tax code, the inheritance tax, an asset tax (which is proposed by Piketty) and non-tax matters, such as the minimum wage, relevant to income inequality. I do not know enough to be sure of the thresholds or even of the rates set forth in the following. But with that caveat, I can structure an approach and assume thresholds. The biggest unknown is the amount of income that is now free of taxes or , like capital gains, subject to reduced tax rates.

1. A No Tax Threshold of $60K. I suggest a family income of up to $60,000.00 as the starting point for income tax. This means no income tax on the first $60K of any family’s income. I think in our amazingly prosperous economy, that those who are in the lower half of income should pay no income tax. Remember that they pay Social Security, sales tax and those taxes, such as corporate and real estate, that are part of the cost of doing business and thus incorporated in the price of goods and services.  My $60K suggestion recognizes that median family income is about $55K. I up that threshold by about 10% to cover the fact that I propose no deductions for anything, including charitable contributions, mortgage interest, local income tax, and medical expenses. The $60K threshold might be affected by what is collected by items 2 and 3 below. We should consider a single rate structure for individuals and do away with head of household and married filing jointly forms.  This would reduce the threshold under which no taxes are paid.

2. All Income Fully Taxable. This is just what it says. I urge no special treatment for dividends, capital gains, local bond interest, inheritance and other so-called “unearned” income. The $60K threshold means some unearned income would not be taxed anyhow. How much tax this approach produces affects the threshold and the tax rate.

This unearned income should be subject to withholding. Since I treat dividends as fully taxable personal income, I would treat them as a corporate expense.

3. No Deductions. The $60K can be looked at as including a modest standard deduction since median family income is probably under $55K. Eliminating deductions is tough to achieve politically. This proposal eliminates a vast amount
of so called tax compliance. There will be no deduction for charitable giving, mortgage interest or medical care. I have read that there are 300 items now covered by deductions and special tax treatment.

4. No Charitable Deductions. One advantage is that it gets the government out of the business of deciding what is a charity.  Why is the Metropolitan Museum a charity and Bartlett Farms not? Why is it a charitable act for MOMA to show films and it is not for Loews to show films?

5. Inherited Income. All inherited income should be treated like any other income and taxed at the rate which applies to the individual getting that income. This means no separate estate tax. Briefly: employ an inheritance tax and not an estate tax.

6. A “sort of” Flat Rate. On income over $60 thousand and up to about $2 million, I suggest a flat rate at an amount to cover tax requirements. I wildly guess that this will mean a rate below 40%. It is a function of how much is pulled in by taxing all income. There may be some trade-off between threshold and this rate. Because the
threshold is high, this kind of flat rate becomes what is called “progressive”. (i.e. mathematically progressive).  If the “flat” rate is 40%, a person earning $120K, would pay $24K (0.4 times 60K); an overall rate of 20%.

7. A Millionaire Rate. The amount over $2 million, could be taxed at a maximum feasible rate. Going over 50% probably results in too much tax avoidance. This is hard to gauge. The federal rate should take into account state and city rates so that the tax payer’s top dollar rate for all three income taxes will not exceed 50%.

8. Increase the Ceiling for paying S.S. Tax. The S.S. tax and Medicare tax should extend to all income up to where the millionaire rate kicks in. These taxes are essentially a flat tax rate component of income tax.

9. Negative Income Tax. Keep this tax for the lowest earned-income group. It is also called the earned income tax credit.

The above would reduce the tax code enormously . It would reduce efforts now made that distort economic decisions in order to gain legal tax advantage.

Policy Considerations that are relevant to the above:

1. Those who benefit most should pay for that governance structure which protects the benefit.

2. There is an aesthetic, ethical and even moral impulse against great inequality.

3. It is efficient and thus good for the economy to have a simple system.

4. It aids public acceptance for the system to be simple. I suspect that the personal income tax code could be written in a few pages.

5. It rewards work by low income workers.

US Tax Code

Chinese IPOs Wow Wall Street

Another Chinese company will go public on the New York Stock Exchange this week, and data show that the 10 biggest Chinese companies to list in the US in the last 12 months have seen an average return of 44 percent since their first day of trading. And that compared with 25 percent for all US IPOs of more than $100 million in the same period, Bloomberg News reported on Monday. In that time, the Chinese returns have outpaced all global counterparts, Bloomberg said.

Josef Schuster, founder of Ipox Schuster LLC, a Chicago-based independent financial-services firm specializing in global IPOs, said that US markets provide a better trading infrastructure and a favorable pricing environment for Chinese firms, among other added benefits.  “It’s eventually up to the firm where to list but a listing in the US can surely add to the novelty of a Chinese company and may help the marketing appeal,” Schuster told China Daily.
IPOs and Chinese firms in particular are taking advantage of a “big window of opportunity,” he said. And many of these deals help drive interest in “hot sectors,” like e-commerce and consumer-related industries.

Of the 16 Chinese companies that have listed in the US this year, 12 are involved in the Internet technology and web services industry.
Francis Gaskins, the director of research for financial industry website equities.com, said one of the main attractions for a Chinese company to list in the US is “broader exposure to US institutions”.
“Chinese IPOs have done pretty well in the US market because they have very good top line revenue increases,” Gaskins said on Monday in an interview with China Daily. “The first thing to look at for a Chinese company is do they have a good branding position.”
Zhaopin Ltd, a Beijing-based Chinese jobs website operator, is scheduled to go public this week at the NYSE.
Many of the Chinese companies listing in the US in the last year have seen solid returns.
E-commerce firm JD.com and Weibo Corp are two of better-known Chinese companies to list in the US in 2014.
JD.com, the largest direct seller of online goods in China, raised $1.78 billion in its IPO on the Nasdaq Stock Market in May, the biggest IPO by a Chinese company in the US, to date.
Weibo, a popular Chinese micro blog commonly referred to as “China’s version of Twitter,” netted $285.6 million during its first day on Nasdaq in April.
Since listing in the US, JD’s shares have produced a return of 49.6 percent, while Weibo’s stock has gone up a more modest 10 percent.
Some other companies that have had solid returns include: Autohome Inc, a car-information website that has gained 110 percent since a December IPO, and online classified ads provider 58.com Inc, which has climbed 140 percent since its IPO in October.
All of those listings pale in comparison to the proposed IPO for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. A US listing for Alibaba, China’s largest online marketplace and No 1 e-commerce firm, could exceed $20 billion, according to some estimates.

Chinese IPOs

Australia Ranks Second for Women Entrepreneurs

Australian women at the Dell women in business conference in Austin were surprised by the news that Australia has the second best environments in the world for female entrepreneurs.

For the second year in a row, the Dell-sponsored Gender Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index showed Australia as ranking second only to the US in terms of “the conditions that foster high potential female entrepreneurship”.

In both years Australia ranked a very clear second ahead of many other developed countries — and streets ahead of any developing countries — as a place for women to start their own companies.

This year, the survey has been expanded from an initial 17 countries to 30. On closer analysis there are a number of elements to the story.

The survey itself takes into ­account many objective factors from organisations such as the World Bank and the International Labour Organisation comparing countries. Australia ranks with the US, Sweden and France in support for small and medium enterprises. It scores high in other criteria such as access to childcare, the freedom to do business, and access to technology.

Australia also ranks high in equal rights and educational levels for women.

The lesson from this is that, at least compared to the position of women in many other countries, Australia has a lot better preconditions for women in business than we like to think.

In the survey the US scored 83 as a place for female entrepreneurs. Australia scored 80, followed by Sweden at 73. This puts us well ahead of France and Germany at 67, Chile at 55 and Britain at 54, with others else below this.

As one of the survey’s researchers pointed out, a stunning 73 per cent of the countries scored poorly — less than 50 or below out of 100.

So it does make the point that Australians do need to take a look around at their country in a global context, and while it might not be as great as would like it to be, the basic framework of the country for would-be female entrepreneurs is a lot better than in many other countries.

If the survey is right, as Australian entrepreneur Wendy Simpson points out, maybe it is time for more women to take the jump to start their own businesses.

Of course, saying that Australia ranks a lot higher than India (26), Uganda and Egypt (19), Bangladesh (17) and Pakistan (11) as a place to do business is no reason for complacency.

But all that said, is there an “x” factor in Australia — maybe cultural — that is holding back women in business at all levels?

There are similar issues facing women in business and women thinking about founding their own business around the world.

As Dell’s entrepreneur in residence, Ingrid Vanderveldt, said yesterday, the biggest single thing preventing women from starting their own businesses (at least in the developed world) is lack of confidence.

Do Australian women lack confidence or are there cultural ­elements in Australia that hold women back or lead women to hold themselves back in business in general?

Maybe the real question is not why Australia happens to rank second in this survey but what can we learn from top-ranking US to improve things.

The US business culture is based on people who know they have to fight hard to compete with 300 million others. Not a lot of room for any Australian-style self-deprecation or hiding a light under a bushel.  This difference is even more pronounced in the attitudes to business and personal success by women in both countries.  (Glenda Korporall)

Don't Hide Your Light Under a Bushel

Empires of Any Sort Are Not for the 21st Century

John Yemma writes in the Christian Science Monitor:  Empires solve a multitude of problems. They lay a blanket of authority over rival peoples and belief systems. They institute common standards and languages and clear the way for trade and travel across vast geographies. The early 20th century was a world of empires – Habsburgs in middle Europe, Romanovs across Eurasia, Ottomans in the Middle East. Britain, France, Portugal, and Belgium had carved up Africa and Asia. Even the United States was in the empire business, managing territories it wrested from Spain at the turn of the century (the Philippines, Cuba, and Puerto Rico) and indirectly managing Latin America through influence and intervention.

Pax Imperialis was at its height in 1910. In “The Guns of August,” historian Barbara Tuchman describes the funeral that year of Edward VII of England, which was attended by nine kings riding three by three and adorned “with plumed helmets, gold braid, crimson sashes, and jeweled orders flashing in the sun.” Seventy nations were gathered in a show of order and honor. But “on history’s clock,” she wrote, “it was sunset, and the sun of the old world was setting in a dying blaze of splendor never to be seen again.”

Historian Gerard DeGroot describes the Great War that those sovereigns and their generals blundered into four years later – 100 years ago this August – the shattered empires left behind, and the many ways we are still sorting through the wreckage. Take a subject in the news today: Ukraine. Internal differences of language, religion, and affinity can be traced to the empires that overlaid its territory before World War I. Hryhoriy Nemyria, a former deputy prime minister of Ukraine, describes his country as still dealing with having been “the periphery of peripheries of three powers” – Russia, and the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires.

The Europe of the 21st century may seem fixed and settled, its frontiers barely noticeable. But that is a recent phenomenon. The farther east Europe goes, the less remains settled, the more “borders and people don’t match,” notes Dan Hamilton, a specialist on transatlantic relations at Johns Hopkins University. That mismatch is true in much of Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

One hundred years is not much time to rebuild from the great political earthquake of 1914, especially with the aftershocks that followed. In many ways, 2014 is a year in which history has insisted it be reviewed, if for no other reason than the coincidence of significant anniversaries. Seventy-five years ago, Hitler invaded Poland, touching off World War II. Seventy years ago was D-Day, which President Obama, amid the new challenges posed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, will mark next month in a speech likely to signal continued American support for a “Europe whole and free.” Those words, by the way, come from a speech by former President George H.W. Bush – exactly 25 years ago – just months before the Berlin Wall fell.

From the vantage of 2014, the age of empire is a distant memory of plumed hats and crimson sashes. Also from this vantage, the age of mental empires based on ideology or religion is, if not fully over, at least approaching sunset. What we must not allow is economic or nationalistic empires to take their place.

The terrible destruction and lost lives of two great wars and a dozen other 20th-century conflicts can be redeemed by a 21st century in which the varied peoples of Earth voluntarily, thoughtfully, peacefully, and modestly govern themselves.

Empires

 

 

 

 

The Role of Household Debt in Financial Crises

Did the response to the financial crisis focus too much on banks while neglecting over-indebted homeowners?  House of Debt: How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again, by Atif Mian and Amir Sufi, University of Chicago Press.

House of Debt focuses on the deterioration of household balance sheets, an analysis that has profound implications for policy directed both at preventing crises and responding to them when prevention fails.

The book examines a profoundly important question: what causes protracted downturns in economic activity? They have marshalled new data – for example, on spending by zip code – to test their hypotheses, assembling such a range of evidence from so many different sources that their conclusions are not susceptible to challenge by those looking to point out statistical errors.

Most in the financial community, the policy community and the commentariat see a breakdown in financial intermediation as the root cause of the financial crisis and Great Recession. The failure to bail out Lehman Brothers is usually viewed as the prelude to

The authors argue that, rather than failing banks, the key culprits in the financial crisis were overly indebted households. They highlight how harsh leverage and debt can be – for example, when the price of a house purchased with a 10 per cent downpayment goes down by 10 per cent, all of the owner’s equity is lost. They demonstrate powerfully that spending fell much more in parts of the country where house prices fell fastest and where the most mortgage debt was attached to homes. So their story of the crisis blames excessive mortgage lending, which first inflated bubbles in the housing market and then left households with unmanageable debt burdens. These burdens in turn led to spending reductions and created an adverse economic and financial spiral that ultimately led financial institutions to the brink.

Households do not spend while they are still overly indebted, which precipitates slow growth even after banking is restored to health. Spending slowdowns are caused by household over-indebtedness, so of course they precede problems in the banking system. And, when consumers do not spend, businesses have less need to borrow to finance investment, inventories or receivables.
Their analysis, presented with far more depth and subtlety than I have been able to reflect here, is a major contribution that furthers our understanding of the crisis. It certainly affects what I will examine in trying to predict and forestall future crises. And it should influence policies aimed at crisis prevention by demonstrating the insufficiency of keeping financial institutions healthy and by making a case for macroprudential measures directed at preventing runaway growth in household debt.

With hindsight some argue that more pain should have been imposed on the financial sector. In the moment, though, the overwhelming imperative was restoring confidence at a time when complete breakdown looked like a real possibility. The government got back substantially more money than it invested. All of the senior executives who created these big messes were out of their jobs within a year. And stockholders lost 90 per cent or more of their investments in all the institutions that required special treatment by the government.

Reducing mortgage debt would have spurred spending.  The idea of  “cram-down”: the notion that bankruptcy judges should be allowed to write down mortgage debt, and that permitting them to do so would increase the bargaining power of homeowners seeking relief probably would have worked.

Critics who disagree at this late date are obliged to provide an alternative analysis of the political calculus, not a mere recitation of the arguments for cram-down.  In the US at the time of the crisis there was no political will to do “cram-down.”

Banks had substantial mortgage holdings and especially large quantities of subordinated second mortgages and home equity lines of credit, which would have been wiped out if mortgage principal had been reduced in a way that respected the seniority of first mortgages. We recognised that large-scale principal reduction would draw in a large number of mortgages that were not delinquent and would otherwise be paid in full. As a consequence, there was the risk of sucking hundreds of billions of dollars out of the banking system. Given that government funds for capital infusions were scarce and that each dollar of bank capital supports $12 of lending, we worried that the spending gains from reducing mortgage debt might well be exceeded by the spending losses from reducing the flow of capital. This fear may have been exaggerated. If they think so, Mian and Sufi owe an explanation as to why.

Future lending might have been chilled. The housing market’s problems might have been prolonged.  If the government had bought underwater mortgages from banks.
There was the danger of prolonging the housing market’s problems. Even the relatively limited programmes in place have spent as much as a third of their money delaying, rather than avoiding, foreclosures. All that we heard at the time suggested that a significant part of the reason why the housing market was dead was that no one wanted to buy because of a fear that it had further to fall. Delaying inevitable foreclosures with relief risked exacerbating this problem and risked larger foreclosure discounts when houses were ultimately sold.

In many cases mortgage assets were carried on banks’ books at valuations far above what appeared to be current market value. Buying them at such valuations would have been a massive backdoor subsidy to banks of the kind we would not accept.  All future work on financial crises will have to reckon with the household balance sheet effects the authors stress.

Underwater Mortgages

Commodities Traders: Speculating on Their Own Behalf

Are commodities traders running the world?  Kate Kelly has written a new book about them:  The Secret Club that Runs the World.

Nestled deep in the towers of banking and finance are the commodities traders who spend their days gambling with oil, gold and grain contracts.  Their astonishing wealth has been created in near obscurity, but if the individuals in the commodities boom have gone largely unnoticed, their impact has not. Prices of raw materials have exploded.  Are the big traders hiking up the cost of petrol, food, and essentials bought by people around the world? How did such immense power end up in the hands of a few?  The Commodities Futures Trading Commission has been trying to cap the number of speculators, but they have not been successful, largely because there is debate on whether or not speculation is good.  Dodd Frank limits positions.  CFTC has tried to impose them.  In the meanwhile, people who use gas can be hurt.

Commodities Prices