Should China Cut US Treasury Holdings?

Should China cut US Treasury Holdings?  Yuhua Zhang writes;  In February, China cut US treasury securities holdings by $15.4 billion to $1223.7 billion, which is the sixth consecutive month that China has reduced US treasuries and falls to the lowest US debt holdings since January 2013. Although China is no longer US largest creditor, the further cut in US treasury holdings would still be a wise strategy to China.

In all, cutting US treasury securities holdings is a reasonable choice for China during the period of economic reform because China will encounter economic slowdown for its “new normal” and diversifying its economy.

However, some economists are anxious that the strategy may bring negative effect on US economy.

On the one hand, in comparison with US treasury securities holdlings by top foreign creditors during the past year, the amount of treasuries sold by China is not large enough to disturb the market, and some other top US foreign creditors such as Japan are still willing to increase their holdings. In other words, it is quite limited effect on US treasury market for China (or some other governments’ authorities) to pursue diversification out of US treasury securities.

Instead of facing problems, the US dollar strength and current yield advantage still guarantee high attractiveness and liquidity for US treasury securities market, which positive trend is expected to continue in the future.

Yuan and Dollar

An Opportunity for Greece?

Joshka Fischer writes:  One can only feel sorry for Greece. For more than five years, the “troika” (the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund) has made it the object of a failed experiment with austerity that has exacerbated the country’s economic crisis. And now Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government seems hell-bent on plunging Greece into the abyss.

It never had to be this way. By the time Tsipras’s leftist Syriza party came to power in January, a new, more growth-oriented compromise had become possible. Even hardcore German proponents of austerity – and certainly Chancellor Angela Merkel – had begun to reconsider their position, owing to their policy prescriptions’ undeniable adverse consequences for the euro and the stability of the European Union.

The Tsipras government, with some justification, could have presented itself as Europe’s best partner for implementing a far-reaching program of reform and modernization in Greece.

But Tsipras squandered Greece’s opportunity, because he and other Syriza leaders were unable to see beyond the horizon of their party’s origins in radical opposition activism.

Of course, it is precisely the acceptance of necessity that marks the difference between government and opposition. An opposition party may voice aspirations, make promises, and even dream a little; but a government party cannot remain in some imaginary world or theoretical system.

Indeed, Tsipras seems to have forgotten the Marxist tradition’s emphasis on the dialectical unity of theory and practice. If you want to negotiate a change of tack with your creditors, you are unlikely to succeed if you destroy your own credibility and rant and rave about those whose money you need to avoid default.

But Syriza’s inability to escape its radical bubble does not explain why it formed a coalition with the far-right Independent Greeks, when it could have governed with one of the centrist pro-European parties.

Within Europe’s monetary union, a consensus has been established that everything possible must be done to keep Greece inside. But Greece’s government needs to understand that other eurozone members will not be willing to accommodate its demands if it means delegitimizing their own painful reforms.

A disorderly Greek exit from the euro – currently the greatest danger – can be averted only if both sides operate on the assumption that the upcoming negotiations are not about who wins and who loses.

But others in Europe need to abandon their illusions as well. The Greek crisis cannot be used either to weaken European conservatives and change the balance of power within the EU, or to remove the Greek left from office.

The current crisis and the negotiations to resolve it are about only one thing: Greece’s future within Europe and the future of the joint European project.

Grexit

 

Reform in China?

A scholar based in China writes:  Since the start of its post-Mao reforms in the late 1970s, the communist regime in China has repeatedly defied predictions of its impending demise. The key to its success lies in what one might call “authoritarian adaptation”—the use of policy reforms to substitute for fundamental institutional change. Under Deng Xiaoping, this meant reforming agriculture and unleashing entrepreneurship. Under Jiang Zemin, it meant officially enshrining a market economy, reforming state-owned enterprises, and joining the World Trade Organization. Under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, it meant reforming social security. Many expect yet another round of sweeping reforms under Xi Jinping—but they may be disappointed.

The need for further reforms still exists, due to widespread corruption, rising inequality, slowing growth, and environmental problems. But the era of authoritarian adaptation is reaching its end, because there is not much potential for further evolution within China’s current authoritarian framework. A self-strengthening equilibrium of stagnation is being formed, which will be hard to break without some major economic, social, or international shock.

One reason for the loss of steam is that most easy reforms have already been launched. Revamping agriculture, encouraging entrepreneurship, promoting trade, tweaking social security—all these have created new benefits and beneficiaries while imposing few costs on established interests. What is left are the harder changes, such as removing state monop­olies in critical sectors of the economy, privatizing land, giving the National People’s Congress power over fiscal issues, and establishing an independent court system. Moving forward with these could begin to threaten the hold of the Chinese Communist Party on power, something that the regime is unwilling to tolerate.

Reform in China

 

Another reason for the loss of steam is the formation of an increasingly strong antireform bloc. Few want to reverse the reforms that have already taken place, since these have grown the pie dramatically. But many in the bureaucracy and the elite more generally would be happy with the perpetuation of the status quo, because partial reform is the best friend of crony capitalism.

Warren: Rules and Market Go Together

Elizabeth Warren writes:  For too long, the opponents of financial reform have cast the debate as an argument between the pro-regulation camp and the pro-market camp. They generally put Democrats in the first camp and Republicans in the second.

But that so-called “choice” gets it all wrong.

Rules are not the enemy of markets. Without some basic rules and accountability, financial markets don’t work. People get ripped off, risk-taking skyrockets, and markets fall apart. Rolling back the rules or firing the cops can be profoundly anti-market.

Republicans claim – loudly and repeatedly – that they support competitive markets, but their approach to financial regulation is pure crony capitalism. It helps the rich and the powerful protect and expand their wealth and their power – and leaves everyone else behind.

This week, I gave a big policy speech which boils down to two principles:

First, financial institutions shouldn’t be allowed to cheat people. Markets work only if people can see and understand the products they are buying, only if people can reasonably compare one product to another, only if people can’t get fooled into taking on far more risk than they realize just so that some fly-by-night company can turn a quick profit and move on. That’s true for families buying mortgages and for pension plans buying complex financial instruments.

Second, financial institutions shouldn’t be allowed to get the taxpayers to pick up their risks. That’s true for using insured deposits for high-risk trading, and it’s true for letting Too-Big-to-Fail banks get a wink-and-a-nod guarantee of a government bailout.
We know what changes we need to make financial markets work better. Strengthen the rules to prevent cheating. Make the cops do their jobs. Cut the banks down to size.  Change the tax code to promote more long-term investment. Tackle shadow-banking done by non-bank firms and subsidiaries.

Changes like these can make a real difference. They can help protect hard-working families from cheats and liars. They can help rein in the lawless practices that are still too common on Wall Street. They can end Too Big to Fail.

The secret to better markets isn’t turning loose the biggest banks to do whatever they want. The secret is smarter, more structural regulation that forces everyone to play by the same rules and doesn’t let anyone put the entire economy at risk.

Warren the Warrior.

Slowdown in Turkey. Why?

Cenk Sidar writes:  For most of the past decade, Turkey’s economy has enjoyed remarkable success. Between 2002 and 2006, during the first term of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), growth averaged 7.2 percent per year, making Turkey a star performer in an otherwise difficult region.

While external factors played some role in Turkey’s success, one would be remiss not to give due credit to the ruling party. The positive steps the AKP took after winning power — continuing the IMF-led reforms initiated by its predecessors and maintaining a responsible fiscal and monetary policy — helped the country achieve the macroeconomic stability necessary to attract foreign capital.

This picture has changed significantly over the past few years, as Turkey has turned from an exemplary emerging market into a country that grabs headlines with stories of economic weakness and financial vulnerability. The current list of problems is daunting: rising inflation, slowing growth, foreign exchange pressure, rising fiscal expenditures, increased unemployment, overall debt, and loss of export competitiveness. The IMF expects Turkish GDP to grow only 3 percent in 2015 and 2016. The lira has lost over 10 percent of its value since the beginning of this year. Moreover, the country is falling behind rival emerging markets. In 2014, India and China left Turkey’s 2.9 percent growth rate in the dust with impressive rates of 7.5 and 7.4 percent respectively.

Turkey’s slowdown is mainly caused by longer-term structural factors, pointing to an urgent need for fundamental reform. And this is where the economic track record of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the ruling AKP has begun to suffer. Even as the Turkish economy sputters, the AKP government is focusing on unsustainable, and sometimes destructive, short-term measures, such as pressuring the central bank to maintain a loose monetary policy, jeopardizing its independence and legitimacy in the process. Meanwhile, the structural reforms needed to ensure the country’s longer-term development are being put off.   Turkey’s Economic Problems

Turkey

 

Should the Carry Trade be Regulated?

Harold James writes” During the early years of the global financial crisis, exchange rates were the least interesting part of the macroeconomic debate. A French proposal in 2011 for a sweeping reform of the international monetary regime went nowhere. Today, the subject has become the focus of intense anxiety – and with good reason.

Currency wars are a reminder of the fragility of the process of globalization.

The expectation that interest rates in the United States will rise is driving up the value of the dollar, even as monetary easing in Japan and Europe is pushing down the yen and the euro.

The euro’s depreciation has been greeted with delight by Europe’s business leaders. But in the US, where the dollar’s gains are threatening to choke off economic recovery, officials at the Federal Reserve are expressing signs of concern.

The swing in exchange rates could have an impact that extends far beyond the short-term rebalancing of the global marketplace.

Indeed, surges in the dollar’s value have long coincided with increased political pressure for trade protectionism. After all, the most obvious way to compensate for the apparent overvaluation of a country’s currency is by imposing import restrictions.

In the mid-1980s, the dollar’s appreciating exchange rate undermined US competitiveness, inaugurating a period of rapid and painful deindustrialization.

If anything, today’s exchange-rate swings are likely to be more extreme, and to last longer, than the surge in the dollar’s value in the 1980s or the volatility of the 1930s, when, in the aftermath of the financial crash that triggered the Great Depression, countries competed to devalue their currencies.

The problem is what is known as the carry trade, a common financial strategy in which an investor borrows money in a currency subject to a low interest rate in order to buy assets in a currency subject to a higher rate. The interest-rate differential, often combined with high amounts of leverage, provides a profit when the loans are paid off.

When exchange rates are stable and predictable, the carry trade is relatively safe. But this is rarely the case. For starters, the practice has the tendency to push exchange rates further apart, as investors sell the currency in which they borrowed to make their purchases.

The large corporate borrowers engaged in the carry trade consider themselves sophisticated investors, capable of predicting when exchange rates are about to reverse. Unfortunately, this only increases the risk, boosting the possibility of a sudden reversal as money pours back into the borrowed currency in an attempt to repay loans before the exchange rate soars to loss-generating levels.

The dangers are very real.

There is one historical precedent that could serve as a model, should we be able to muster the political will to consider it. In the 1930s, John Maynard Keynes championed limits on the movement of capital in order to blunt the more damaging consequences of globalization. The equivalent today would be to introduce regulations on the carry trade. Policymakers would do well to consider this option – before it is too late.

Fishing Poacher’s Rescued on Africa’s West Coast

Environmental activist group Sea Shepherd said it rescued 40 crew members from a sinking “poaching” ship it was pursuing for months for allegedly illegally fishing in the Southern Ocean, but described the ship’s sinking as suspicious.

Sea Shepherd said its ships Bob Barker and Sam Simon picked up the crew, which included the captain, from life rafts from the Nigerian-flagged boat Thunder.

They had been sailing in the waters of Sao Tome and Principe, an island nation off Africa’s western coast.

“It is an incredibly suspicious situation, to say the least,” Bob Barker’s captain Peter Hammarstedt said in a statement.

“When my chief engineer boarded the Thunder in the hours leading up to the sinking, he was able to confirm that there were clear signs that the vessel was intentionally scuttled.

“Usually when a vessel is sinking, the captain will close all hatches so as to maintain buoyancy. However, on the Thunder, the reverse was done — doors and hatches were tied open and the fishhold was opened.”

Sea Shepherd said the crew were given food and water and were transferred to Sam Simon.

Video recorded by the activist group showed the ship sinking just hours after it said Thunder issued a distress signal on Monday afternoon.

Hammarstedt said Thunder’s captain, who was not named, complained about being rescued and “started applauding and cheering” when the vessel sank.

“We’ve been chasing the Thunder for 110 days now, and I think they’re basically at the end of their fuel, and they would have had to make a port call,” Hammarstedt told the Sydney Morning Herald.

“I think the captain of the Thunder made the decision that he preferred the physical evidence on board… was better on the ocean bottom than going into port with him.”

Thunder, on a list of boats deemed to have engaged in illegal, unreported, or unregulated fishing activities by multi-national body the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), is suspected of illegal fishing for Patagonian toothfish and other rare species in the Antarctic.

Toothfish is sold as Chilean sea bass, which is popular in high-end restaurants. It sells primarily in the United States, Europe and Japan, although there is also a growing market in China.

Fish

Yellen: Fed Interest in Inequality

In a speech defending the Federal Reserve’s interest in economic inequality issues, Chairwoman Janet Yellen said more work needs to be done to understand what conditions allow people to rise up and down the income ladder in the U.S.

“We know that families are the locus of both opportunities and barriers to economic mobility,” but from that point, there remains a lot of uncertainty about the forces that affect and shape a person’s performance in the economy, Ms. Yellen said. Her comments come from the text of a speech prepared for delivery in Washington before a Fed community development research conference.

Ms. Yellen pushed back at those who have been uncomfortable with her recent comments on income inequality. Some believe that a central bank that is charged with promoting price stability and job creation has no business addressing politically-charged matters of individual economic performance. Ms. Yellen faced considerable criticism from Republicans in her last visit before congress from some legislators who believed her comments on inequality were political in nature.

In her speech, Ms. Yellen rejected these arguments. “Economic inequality has long been of interest within the Federal Reserve System,” she said, citing a 2007 speech by then-Chairman Ben Bernanke.

She said the broader public cares, too. According to a survey, “the gap between rich and poor now ranks as a major concern in the minds of citizens around the world,” she said, adding “in advanced economies still feeling the effects of the Great Recession, people worry that children will grow up to be worse off financially than their parents were.”

Ms. Yellen observed these concerns cut across ideological lines, and that it is clear it is a matter than needs more study.

When it comes to economic mobility, Ms. Yellen said more knowledge is needed on how one’s circumstances at birth affect earnings and wealth later. Family dynamics and expectations can also play a role, as well as events over which individuals have no control.

Yellen Concerned about Inequality

Women Requested to Enter Turkish Workforce

Turkey needs a new economic model that focuses on technological transformation, women’s participation in the workforce, and increasing entrepreneurship, Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges (TOBB) head Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu.

“Turkey needs a new economic model … The most basic element of the new model must be high technology. We need to put an end to unnecessary daily debates and focus on the main point,” Hisarcıklıoğlu said at the 11th summit of the Economy Journalists’ Association (EGD) in the northwestern district of Kartepe.In his speech, he noted that Turkey lags behind many emerging countries in producing high technologies and has become stuck in the middle-income trap.

Hisarcıklıoğlu said that only 21 of the 100 most rapidly growing companies in Turkey are software and IT companies, compared with 60 in the United States.

“It is time to make new reforms. Turkey needs to distinguish itself in a geographical location embroiled a series of stiff conditions … It needs comprehensive educational, legal and administrative reforms,” he said.

The TOBB head also addressed the income inequalities between the regions in Turkey as a huge problem holding back the economy.

“The richest region, the Marmara region, is four times richer than the poorest region. We need to reflect on distributing wealth more evenly across all regions and 81 provinces. As the TOBB members, we are working on developing a strategy to reach this aim. Turkey cannot become wealthier only on what the Marmara region produces. We need all regions to be mobilized,” he said.

To this end, a hub to produce high technologies needs to be established in an area outside the Marmara region, Hisarcıklıoğlu said.

“We must not wait for the flow of investment to the eastern and southeastern regions only by the public sector … The role of the state must be to build the required infrastructure to lure the private sector to these regions to make investments,” he said.

Hisarcıklıoğlu also stated that he and TOBB representatives met with Deputy Prime Minister Yalçın Akdoğan to discuss the economic ramifications of the peace process.

“If there is no peace, there will be no trade, and if there is no trade, there will no wealth. According to research, the most hopeful province for the future was the eastern province of Batman by around 90 percent last year, thanks to the signs of peace in the region. Batman was followed by the eastern province of Diyarbakır with 82 percent, the southern province of Gaziantep, the northwestern province of Kocaeli and the eastern province of Bingöl. So what the peace process brings is of crucial importance for our country,” he said.

Turkey is expected to reach around $13,000 income per capita by 2020 with an average annual growth of around 3 percent. However, Hisarcıklıoğlu suggested that if a “new story” is written in the Turkish economy through reforms, these figures could increase to $17,000 at around 7 percent growth.

He noted that current growth signals were not strong in the first quarter of 2015 and net exports had not made a big contribution to growth.

“But Turkey still continues to grow. Unemployment is still a problem, but the private sector added 1.1 million new jobs in 2014. This figure is really good,” Hisarcıklıoğlu also said.