FATCA Drives More than Fatcats Out of the US?

Rocky Road to Globalization

Wall Street Journal editorial:   Few privileges in the world are greater than U.S. citizenship, so why are a record number of Americans giving it up these days? The U.S. Treasury Department reported this week that 1,426 Americans turned in their passports between July and September, more than in any previous quarter. The total for the year is on pace to far exceed last year’s all-time-high of 3,415.

As recently as the George W. Bush years, only about 480 Americans renounced their citizenship annually. But in 2010 the Pelosi Congress and Barack Obama enacted the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, or Fatca. Aimed at tax evaders, the law has mostly made financial life hellish for law-abiding Americans living overseas, of whom there are some eight million.

Fatca requires that foreign banks, brokers, insurers and other financial institutions give the U.S. Internal Revenue Service detailed asset and transaction records for any accounts held by Americans, including corporate accounts controlled by American employees. If a firm fails to comply, the IRS can slap it with a 30% withholding tax on transactions originating in the U.S. Facing such risks and compliance costs, many foreign firms have decided it’s easier to dump their American clients.

So Americans overseas are becoming increasingly unbankable. Not the wealthiest ones, of course, those “fat cat” potential tax evaders whom Democrats rail against. Much more vulnerable are sales reps, English teachers, lawyers, retirees—the overwhelming majority of American expatriates—whose modest finances make them unappealing clients amid Fatca’s compliance costs.

American expats in the Fatca age are also less attractive as employees and business partners, as any financial accounts they can access must now be exposed to government scrutiny—not only from the U.S. but potentially also from more than 100 other countries that have signed Fatca-related information-sharing agreements with Washington. Americans up for executive posts in Brazil, Singapore, Switzerland and elsewhere have been asked by their managers to renounce their U.S. citizenship or lose their promotion.

Little surprise, then, that renunciations are on the rise. A few thousand ex-Americans aren’t much of a political cause, but they’re a proxy for U.S. tax and regulatory policies that hamper the entire U.S. economy. For every American who renounces citizenship, there are many more foreigners refusing to do business with Yankee entrepreneurs or to invest money in U.S. businesses. That’s a problem for all Americans.

Fat Cats

Government Action Against Wrongdoing Bankers?

Reviewing John Coffee’s book “Entrepreneurial Legislation”  Judge Jed Rakoff suggests a possible solution to the government’s failure to prosecute in cases of bankers who have clearly violated the law.

Rakoff writes: Coffee, while also strongly advocating for more governmental action against individuals, proposes an interesting innovation that he thinks would make class actions more socially useful and less liable to abuse. Overall, he suggests making good on class action’s promise of a “third way” by combining its profit-seeking tendencies with oversight of the class actions themselves by public agencies. Specifically, he proposes, among other reforms, that government regulators in matters where class actions are common should employ private class action lawyers, on a contingent fee basis, to bring class actions supervised by the regulatory authority but for the benefit of the victims, to whom any recovery would be distributed.

It is hard to believe that the settlements in such cases have much of a deterrent effect on the individual executives who actually committed the alleged misconduct. This is why class actions may be no real substitute for criminal and regulatory prosecution of the individuals actually responsible for corporate misconduct.

Is it possible that enlightened regulators could vindicate the rights of individuals without the massive profit-seeking machinery of the current U.S. legal system, and without the cruel bias toward incarceration of the current U.S. criminal justice system?

Jail Bankers?

 

 

Bitcoin’s Blockchain Goes Mainstream

Blockchain technology may well be what remains of bitcoin technology.  At a conference sponsored by the New Yorker earlier this fall, all the participants agreed that bitcoin as an alternate currency had a questionable future.  Yet the blockchain technology that releases bitcoins into the market may work well for credit card companies and online banking.

Nine of the world’s biggest banks have thrown their weight behind blockchain,

Barclays, BBVA, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Credit Suisse, JPMorgan, State Street, Royal Bank of Scotland, and UBS have all formed a partnership to draw up industry standards and protocols for using the blockchain in banking.

The partnership is being led by R3, a startup with offices in New York and London headed by David Rutter, the former CEO of ICAP Electronic Broking and a 32-year veteran of Wall Street.

Rutter’s plan is to build the “fabric” of blockchain technology for banking, as well as develop commercial applications for banks and financial firms.

The blockchain is the software that both powers and regulates cryptocurrency bitcoin. In its most basic form, it records ownership of bitcoin — money — and transactions — one person paying another.

Transactions are signed off by the parties involved using the software, then added to the blockchain, a long string of code that records all activity.

Once other transactions are added on in front of an exchange, the transaction is stuck there forever and can’t be changed, in the same way you can’t change a brick once it’s been built into a wall.

The software cuts out the need for a “trusted middleman” to sit in between parties in a transaction as it acts as that middleman. This makes transactions quicker, cheaper, and easier when compared to the current systems banks use.

Banks are therefore keen to see if it can be adapted for use with traditional currency, rather than just bitcoin.

The blockchain uses open ledger technology, meaning all of these transactions are free for anyone to look at and not stashed in some private data centre in Canary Wharf. Anyone can theoretically check to see if someone’s using stolen bitcoin and this adds a level of transparency to the system.

Rutter says R3 has drawn up a “wish list” of what its banking partners want to use blockchain technology for, which covers “everything from issuance, to clearing and settlement and smart contracts, where the code is the contract and it saves on back office costs.”

As part of the partnership, banks are investing in R3. Rutter said: “I can’t reveal that but it’s been reported that it’s several million. From my prospective of having the banks involved, the human element is more valuable.”

Blockchain

How to Make Bankers Accountable

How can we put the barnkers’ necks on the block?

Matt Levine writes: A “financial crisis” means, roughly, “that someone borrows money from someone else and can’t pay it back, and it is socially or politically unacceptable that the people who loaned the money not get their money back.” So the way to avoid financial crises is to clearly define the classes of people whom it is socially and politically acceptable not to pay back.  The Fed’s new rules on “total loss-absorbing capacity,” which requires banks to fund themselves partly with long-term debt that would be, as the name implies, loss-absorbing. Banks issue debt that is explicitly government guaranteed (retail deposits, etc.), and other debt that is systemically important and disastrous not to pay back (repo, etc.), but that shouldn’t lull you into thinking that allbank debt is systemic and subject to implicit government guarantees. TLAC debt, with “loss” right in the name, shouldn’t lull anyone.

Free Fall for CHeaters

Manipulating Markets: Up and Down?

Should we look at who drives stock prices up as well as who helps them go down?

Matt Levine writes about Chinese markets:  When Chinese stock markets were crashing earlier this year, authorities were quick to blame short sellers and market manipulation. It’s reasonable to be skeptical. Sometimes markets go down because they are overvalued, not because a cabal of evil hedge fund managers is manipulating them.

Chinese authorities have detained the leading light of the “Limit-up Kamikaze Squad”, a group of hedge fund managers known for their fearless speculation.

Xu Xiang, general manager of Zexi Investment Management, was apprehended on Sunday on suspicion of insider trading after a police manhunt.

He was “captain” of the loose collection of fund managers centred around the coastal city of Ningbo in eastern Zhejiang province who are known for pushing favoured stocks up by the 10 per cent daily limit on Chinese exchanges.

A frequent criticism of these sorts of crackdowns is that authorities are quick to blame manipulative short sellers when stocks go down, but are less concerned about manipulation on the way up. Pushing stocks up is just as manipulative as pushing them down. But in fact, while it’s not clear what exactly the charges against Xu are, they might well be related to upward manipulation.

Mr. Xu’s Zexi Investment, based in Shanghai, was the subject of intense market speculation in September, when a post on social media accused the company of market manipulation. The online post suggested that Zexi had told China’s biggest brokerage, Citic Securities, to buy shares of an unprofitable Shanghai clothing retailer to lift its price for one of its politically connected investors. At the time, Zexi said the attacks were “fabrications from nowhere and malicious attacks.”

Image by Claudio Munoz

Image by Claudio Munoz

Coal Industry Fighting Carbon Rules

Carbon rule for power plants has the coal interests fighting hard.

The publication of the EPA’s carbon rule for power plants has prompted a flurry of legal and legislative action, ushering in a lengthy battle over the future of the Obama administration’s key climate change initiative.

More than two dozen states and a slew of interest groups and companies sued over the Clean Power Plan.

Leading state attorneys general called the rule an illegal expansion of federal power that they said will have a dramatic impact on electricity pricing, grid reliability and jobs.

On Capitol Hill, Republicans geared up for their own attempt at repealing the rule, perhaps forcing a veto from President Obama.

The Clean Power Plan is intended to cut carbon emissions from the power sector by 32 percent over the next 15 years by assigning carbon targets to states and asking them to find ways to hit them.

In a statement, McConnell repeated his long-held argument against the regulations: that they will hurt his state’s coal industry by forcing a transition to cleaner energy.

“Here’s what is lost in this administration’s crusade for ideological purity: the livelihoods of our coal miners and their families,” he said in a statement.

“I have vowed to do all I can to fight back against this administration on behalf of the thousands of Kentucky coal miners and their families, and this CRA is another tool in that battle. The CRAs that we will file will allow Congress the ability to fight these anti-coal regulations.”

On the legal front, more than half the states affected by the Clean Power Plan have filed lawsuits against it.

West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, a Republican, said he hopes a federal court will block implementation of the rule while considering the broader legal case against it.

Morrisey said the EPA doesn’t have the power under to regulate carbon emissions from power plants in the way it has proposed. He equated the rule to a cap-and-trade system, something Congress considered but rejected during the early years of Obama’s presidency, and contended the EPA “cannot use the regulatory apparatus of the executive branch to push policies the Congress does not approve.”

EPA officials and the Obama administration were quick to defend the rule on Friday. In a blog post detailing the Clean Power Plan’s legality and scientific basis, EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy said the regulations are on strong legal ground.

“The plan is fully consistent with the Clean Air Act, and relies on the same time-tested state-federal partnership that, since 1970, has reduced harmful air pollution by 70 percent, while the U.S. economy has tripled,” she wrote.

White House spokesman Eric Schultz said he wasn’t surprised to see Republican critics “rush to the courts to try and prevent something they weren’t able to do legislatively,” and dismissed their chances of success.

Obama is certain to get support from some outside sources. A group of 15 Democratic attorneys general led by New York’s Eric Schneiderman said Friday they would file motions supporting the rule come next week.

Green groups are primed to do the same.  “The Clean Power Plan will have a powerful army of defenders as well, in this court battle,” said David Doniger, director and senior attorney for the climate and clean air program at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

End Coal Dependence

Bernanke on Government-Backed Bank Bailouts

Should Central Banks Be De-Fanged?

Holman W. Jenkins writes:  Ben Bernanke wishes otherwise, but his historical reputation won’t rest only on his efforts to save the financial system, but on his contribution to the meltdown in the first place by letting Lehman fail.

“We had little doubt a Lehman failure would massively disrupt financial markets and impose heavy costs . . . on millions of people around the world who would be hurt by its economic shockwaves. . . . I never heard anyone from the Fed or the Treasury suggest that letting Lehman fail would be anything other than a disaster, or that we should contemplate allowing the firm to fail. . . . Lehman needed to be saved. We lacked the means to do so,” writes Bernanke.

When Lehman weekend rolled around in September 2008 and it wasn’t clear yet that even AIG would be saved, we were flummoxed. Fed intervention seemed a no-brainer, given the assumptions and priorities that have driven such decisions in the past.  The Fed worried about the “end of our resources” and having to face the potential collapse of WaMu, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and others with “no political support.”

Let’s try a thought experiment: Suppose President Bush, Candidate Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid had all taken to their respective soapboxes and demanded that the Fed stop a Lehman crash. Would Mr. Bernanke have failed to bail out Lehman over a legalism? Of course not.

Maybe he and Hank Paulson were right: The highly political moment would have produced a populist backlash that would have inhibited their future rescue efforts.  It doesn’t follow that the Fed would have taken losses. Lehman, after all, was liquidated in a world in which Lehman had been allowed to fail. Second, the Fed can print money.

Less spin would be useful right now for one important reason: Politicians and the public still haven’t grown up about the too-big-to-fail problem. Mr. Bernanke says CEOs and shareholders won’t be eager to repeat the experience of Bear Stearns, Lehman, etc. If only it were so. Creditors were largely bailed out. That means, in the quest for competitive returns, shareholders and CEOs in the future inevitably will be led to press the limits on leverage because lenders believe them implicitly government-backed.

Mr. Bernanke is correct when he says the Lehman panic, not the relatively modest losses on subprime mortgages, caused the global crash. But let’s spell it out. Since the Great Depression, largely due to the scholarship of people like Mr. Bernanke, investors and savers were conditioned to believe the U.S. government would not let the failure of a mere financial institution crater the world economy. Now their confidence in the safety net was mortally shaken.

The time to worry about moral hazard is before a crisis, not in the middle of one.

Printing Money

Tackling Inequality with Redistribution of Wealth?

Policies to aid in reducing the inequality index are varied.  Some argue that growth is a way to even out incomes.

Steven J. Klees writes:  There is ample reason to believe that the world will never grow its way out of inequality and poverty, and that redistribution is our only hope for greater social justice.

“Pro-growth is pro-poor” has been the informal slogan of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund for decades, resulting in policies known as the “Washington Consensus.” These policies comprised the structural adjustment programs (SAPs) of the 1980s and 1990s, when developing countries were forced to cut social programs, privatize public services, deregulate industries, eliminate trade protection, and make their labor markets more “flexible” (a euphemism for making it easier to fire workers). These programs yielded modest growth at best; what they did succeed in boosting was poverty, inequality, and social protest.

Dissatisfaction with the Washington Consensus came to a head during the economic crisis in Southeast Asia in the late 1990s, leading to a search for alternatives. Since 2000, the Bank and the IMF have been forced to work with a new template, Poverty Reduction Strategy Processes (PRSPs), which supposedly differ from the SAPs in two ways; they put more importance on social safety nets, and they encourage extensive participation of civil society in decision-making.

Unfortunately, the PRSPs have failed to deliver. Their safety nets are full of holes, and, too often, civil society is barely consulted. Indeed, the 1,200-page technical manual that must be followed to produce a plan belies the fundamental idea that these programs are owned and governed by those who adopt them. In the end, PRSPs look a lot like SAPs.

Starting in the 1980s neoliberal economists began to dominate the discussion. They could not avoid talking about poverty, but inequality became an almost forbidden topic. The Nobel laureate economist Robert Lucas spoke for many when he dismissed the importance of inequality.

Fortunately, the pendulum has started to swing back. It is becoming increasing clear that the result of 35 years of pro-growth policies has been an almost unprecedented rise in income and wealth inequality.

Many are now arguing not only that economic growth does not in itself reduce poverty and inequality, but also that pro-equity policies and conditions lead to faster and better economic growth.

Indeed, some economists now argue for a two-pronged attack on inequality: redistributive measures alongside market interventions to bolster wages and employment. Among the recommended policies are progressive income taxes, increases in capital gains taxes, higher estate taxes, and global mechanisms to tax income, wealth, and financial transactions. Governments could also facilitate unionization to give workers more bargaining power, substantially raise minimum wages, and create employment, for example, through government jobs programs, as the United States did during the 1930s.

While Qureshi calls for economic growth to be “inclusive,” most of the policies he recommends fit more with the failed Washington Consensus than with the new directions proposed by resurgent progressive economists.

Pulling out of this tailspin will not be easy. It will require strong national and international governance. But, to borrow Thatcher’s old slogan, if we are serious about reducing poverty and inequality, “There is no alternative.”

Inequality

Subprime Mortgages: Does the Punishment Fit the Crime?

John Kay writes:  More than a half-century ago, John Kenneth Galbraith presented a definitive depiction of the Wall Street Crash of 1929.  Embezzlement, Galbraith observed, has the property that “weeks, months, or years elapse between the commission of the crime and its discovery. This is the period, incidentally, when the embezzler has his gain and the man who has been embezzled feels no loss. There is a net increase in psychic wealth.” Galbraith described that increase in wealth as “the bezzle.”

Warren Buffett’s business partner, Charlie Munger, pointed out that the concept can be extended much more widely. This psychic wealth can be created without illegality: mistake or self-delusion is enough. Munger coined the term “febezzle,” or “functionally equivalent bezzle,” to describe the wealth that exists in the interval between the creation and the destruction of the illusion.

From this perspective, the critic who exposes a fake Rembrandt does the world no favor: The owner of the picture suffers a loss, as perhaps do potential viewers, and the owners of genuine Rembrandts gain little. The finance sector did not look kindly on those who pointed out that the New Economy bubble of the late 1990s, or the credit expansion that preceded the 2008 global financial crisis, had created a large febezzle.

It is easier for both regulators and market participants to follow the crowd. Only a brave person would stand in the way of those expecting to become rich by trading Internet stocks with one another, or would deny people the opportunity to own their own homes because they could not afford them.

The joy of the bezzle is that two people – each ignorant of the other’s existence and role – can enjoy the same wealth.  Shareholders in banks could not have understood that the dividends they received before 2007 were actually money that they had borrowed from themselves.

Investors congratulated themselves on the profits they had earned from their vertiginously priced Internet stocks. They did not realize that the money they had made would melt away like snow in a warm spring.

Fair value accounting has multiplied opportunities for imaginary earnings, such as Enron’s profits on gas trading. If you measure profit by marking to market, then profit is what the market thinks it will be. The information contained in the accounts of the business – the information that should shape the market’s views – is to be derived from the market itself.

And the market is prone to temporary fits of shared enthusiasm. There are numerous routes to bezzle and febezzle. In a Ponzi scheme, early investors are handsomely rewarded at the expense of latecomers until the supply of participants is exhausted. Such practices, illegal as practiced by Bernard Madoff, are functionally equivalent to what happens during an asset-price bubble.

The essential story of the period from 2003 through 2007 is that banks announced large profits and paid a substantial share of them to their traders and senior employees. Then they discovered that it had all been a mistake, more or less wiped out their shareholders, and used taxpayer money to trade their way through to new levels of reported profit.

The essential story of the eurozone crisis is that banks in France and Germany reported profits on money they had lent to southern Europe and passed the bad loans to the European Central Bank. In both narratives, traders borrowed money from the future. And then the future came, as it always does, turning the bezzle into a bummer.

Bezzle

A Measured Approach to Inequality?

How inequality impacts growth and what to do about it.

Zia Qureshi Income inequality has been increasing in most major economies – and in many of them, it has been increasing significantly. This is a cause for growing concern, and rightly so: inequality not only can undermine an economy’s long-term growth prospects; it can restrain growth in the short term by depressing aggregate demand.

The typical approach to tackling inequality – redistributive tax-and-transfer fiscal policies – can be controversial and divisive, owing to perceived tradeoffs between economic growth and greater equality. The result is usually heated debate and passionate rhetoric, but little concrete action. Politicians are especially prone to this dynamic – as evidenced by much of the conversation about inequality in the ongoing presidential election campaign in the United States.

There is a better way, one that is less controversial and politically more amenable to action: putting in place reforms that promote strong, inclusive growth that by its nature reduces inequality. This approach focuses on reducing inequalities of opportunity and broadening the base of participants in the growth process, thereby ensuring that more people benefit from it. Politicians who champion this approach may find it easier to build winning coalitions to enact it.

The range of policies that can stimulate inclusive growth is broad. It includes improving access to markets, leveling the playing field for large and small firms, investing in human capital, and promoting job creation. Regulatory and institutional reforms that strengthen the rule of law and promote open, competitive, and fair business environments are one example. This agenda also features the development of infrastructure that expands economic opportunities and policies that make it easier to access finance.

Education is a key area to consider when promoting inclusive growth.

It is important to remove barriers in the labor market: Providing opportunities for an educated workforce to find well-paying jobs – especially when efforts to do so are complemented by macroeconomic policies that boost demand for labor. The removal of barriers to women’s participation in economic activity is another important lever for sparking inclusive growth.

The effectiveness and appropriateness of reforms that promote inclusive growth will differ from place to place. But few countries lack significant opportunities to strengthen several policies in this area.

To be sure, redistributive fiscal policies often will remain necessary. But it is important that they be designed in a way that causes as little economic harm as possible. Well-designed tax-and-transfer policies may not be inimical to growth – or at least can minimize the efficiency cost of redistribution. On the tax side, examples include expanding the base of the personal income tax, ensuring that the rate structure is progressive, removing excessive and regressive exemptions, and improving property taxation.

This agenda is all the more important because rising inequality can produce a backlash against globalization and technological change, both of which are major drivers of economic growth.

At a time when the world is concerned with both slowing economic growth and rising inequality, policies that can be simultaneously pro-growth and pro-equality merit close consideration. It is time to stop trying to re-slice the pie and start ensuring that it gets bigger in a more inclusive way, so that there is more to go around and more people get a slice.

Inequality