LinkedIn Cracked the Chinese Market

How is Linked in different from all the other social media sites?

Katie Benner writes:  LinkedIn is the first U.S. company to enjoy Internet success in China. The country is at the center of one of the professional networking site’s fastest growing regions and represents one of its biggest opportunities. While LinkedIn has only 5 million members in China (if you combine its English and Chinese language sites) the country is home to more than 100 million professionals who are potential future members.

Last quarter, LinkedIn’s chief executive officer, Jeff Weiner, mentioned the positive effect that China has had on his company’s bottom line. Fueled by China, LinkedIn’s revenue from its Asia Pacific division grew 64 percent last quarter, faster than from its operations in any other part of the world. Investors hope to see that growth continue when the company reports earnings today, and in the future.

Most discussions of LinkedIn’s success inevitably focus on the fact that the company cooperates with the Chinese government and censors content from its Chinese users — a discussion that intensified when LinkedIn started blocking some of its users’ posts earlier this year.

Some critics have made much of the fact that LinkedIn tries to paint its so-called “professional content” — stories about management techniques and earnings and best practices that it features alongside resumes and job postings — as uncontroversial. Therefore, the argument goes, there isn’t much on the site to warrant the attention of censors.

Content isn’t the core reason LinkedIn has made strides in China. It’s been successful there because it’s the only foreign Internet company that offers something that a Chinese rival just can’t replicate — a direct connection between the world’s biggest companies, the world’s most respected universities, and bazillions of networking-starved Chinese who want to use the site’s services.

LinkedIn is a window onto, and in some cases a passport to, the middle class, white-collar professional world that Chinese citizens have craved ever since they traded in their Mao suits for Levis in the 1980s.

The world is watching to see how LinkedIn deals with censorship and the Chinese government. But that’s not the only way to gauge why it’s been successful at courting Chinese users and dodging Chinese hardliners. LinkedIn meets the aspirational needs of a generation hungry for opportunity and simply copying its content strategy won’t translate into duplicating its success.

LinkedIn in China

 

Phone Companies Tracking Customers

Wired and Forbes report earlier that the two largest cellphone carriers in the United States, Verizon and AT&T, are adding the tracking number to their subscribers’ Internet activity, even when users opt out.

The data can be used by any site – even those with no relationship to the telecoms — to build a dossier about a person’s behavior on mobile devices – including which apps they use, what sites they visit and for how long.

MoPub, acquired by Twitter in 2013, bills itself as the “world’s largest mobile ad exchange.” It uses Verizon’s tag to track and target cellphone users for ads, according to instructions by devleopers posted on its website.

Twitter declined to comment.  Who is Tracking You

Phone Companies TrackingPhon

 

Geithner Surprisingly Frank in AIG Court Papers

Jeff Gerth writes about papers Timothy Geithner, Obama’s first secretary of the treasury, wrote which has cropped up as part of an ongoing legal case concerning AIG and the bailout.  With the SEC focused on insider trading, which Geithner descibes as disgusting but not the cause of the financial crisis, and poor supervision of the various institutions that bundled subprime mortgages, the aftermath of the crisis has still not be dealt with.

Weak remarks from Wiliaim Dudley, head of the New York Fed which Geithner ran before he went to the White House, illustrate how ineffective supervision of Wall Street was and is.  Specific criticisms are summaried in Geithner’s notes.  Timothy Geithner Talks About the Financial Meltdown, Somewhat Frankly

Geithner’s points: Illegal stuff was hard to prove, supervision was weak. Government relief programs were tepid and corporate wrongdoers have not been punished.

Geithner to the Rescue

Can the New York Fed Supervise Wall Street?

Can the New York Federal Reserve supervise Wall Street?

The financial crisis could never have happened without the passivity of federal bank regulators. And no agency’s failure was more pivotal than that of the Fed, which had the authority to crack down on the abusive lending that drove the financial system and the economy over the cliff, but repeatedly failed to exercise it

The New York Fed is a key part of the Federal Reserve, acting as the on-the-ground supervisor of the major Wall Street banks. According to an internal New York Fed report, written in 2009 but revealed recently, bank supervisors in the pre-crisis years ”saw issues but did not respond,“ were not ”willing to stand up to banks and demand both information and action,“ and were excessively deferential to the banks they regulated.

Five years later, a whistleblower’s tape recordings reveal a disturbingly similar pattern of inappropriate deference to regulated banks. A still more recent official report adds fuel to the fire by criticizing the New York Fed for sloppy oversight of the JPMorgan Chase office responsible for the $6.2 billion “London Whale” disaster.

Roles of the US Federal Reserve

 

The Albatross of Oil?

Robert D. Kaplan writes:  Because geopolitics is based on the eternal verities of geography, relatively little in geopolitics comes to an end. The Warsaw Pact may have dissolved following the collapse of the Berlin Wall, but Russia is still big and it still lies next door to Central and Eastern Europe, so a Russian threat to Europe still exists. Japan may have been defeated and flattened by the U.S. military in World War II, but its dynamic population — the gift of a temperate zone climate — still projects power in the Pacific Basin and may do so even more in the years to come. The United States may have committed one blunder after another in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, yet through all of these misbegotten wars the United States remains by a yawning margin the greatest military power on earth — the gift, ultimately, of America being a virtual island nation of continental proportions, as well as the last resource-rich swath of the temperate zone to be settled at the time of the European Enlightenment.

So we come to the Middle East, which, despite all its changes and upheavals in the course of the decades and all the prognostications of a U.S. “pivot” to the Pacific, remains vital to the United States. Israel is a de facto strategic ally of the United States and for over six decades now has remained embattled, necessitating American protection. The Persian Gulf region is still the hydrocarbon capital of the world and thus a premier American interest. Certainly, officials in Washington would like to shift focus to the Pacific, but the Middle East simply won’t allow that to happen.

For decades the Persian Gulf represented a primary American interest: a place that was crucial to the well-being of the American economy. The American economy is the great oil and automotive economy of the modern age, with interstate highways the principal transport link for an entire continent. And Persian Gulf oil was a key to that enterprise. But increasingly the Persian Gulf represents only a secondary interest to the United States: a region important to the well-being of American allies, to be sure, and to world trade and the world economic system in general, but not specifically crucial to America itself, the war to defeat the Islamic State notwithstanding. However much oil the United States is still importing from the Persian Gulf, the fact is that America will have more energy alternatives at home and abroad in future decades.

Indeed, the United States is on the brink of being, in some sense, energy self-sufficient within Greater North America, from the tar sands of Alberta, Canada, to the oil fields of Venezuela.

Does this mean that the US can exit from the Middle East?  Rumblings that we should exit the area, rope it off and let Middle Easterners solve their own problems arupting everywhere?  Will energy indpendence free the US from the oil albatross?

US Dependence on Oil

Deutsche Bank Posts $117 Million Loss

Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest, reported a net loss of 92 million euros, or about $117 million, compared with a profit of €51 million in the third quarter of 2013. Profit in the quarter had been expected to suffer after Deutsche Bank said last week that it had set aside an additional €894 million to cover legal costs.

The loss provides another reminder that Deutsche Bank and other large investment banks are still preoccupied with addressing the excesses associated with the financial crisis, as well as with increasing demands from regulators intent on curbing risk-taking by banks.

“It’s very clear that litigation legacy, coping with all of that, has proven to be more challenging for us and the industry than we would have thought,” Mr. Jain said on a conference call with analysts on Wednesday.

The bank is facing investigations over its role in the potential manipulation of global benchmark interest rates and inquiries into foreign exchange trading.

It is also facing lawsuits over mortgage-based securities sold in the US before the financial crisis.   Along with money set aside in previous quarters, Deutsche Bank has stockpiled a total of about €3 billion to cover potential litigation costs.

Mr. Fitschen and several former bank leaders are also facing criminal charges of colluding to give false testimony in a long-running lawsuit over the collapse of a bank client’s media empire.  In addition to legal issues, the chief executives said, headwinds include a slowing European economy and geopolitical risks, a reference to tension with Russia and fighting in the Middle East.

Deutsche Bank and its peers face increased scrutiny from regulators who are seeking to prevent future financial crises. The ECB  has already demanded more information than in the past, prompting many banks to invest in better information technology.

Deutsche Bank easily passed stress tests carried out by the ECB.  They have also actively increased equity.   But Deutsche Bank continues to face criticism that it is overly dependent on borrowed money.

 Deutsche Bank

Cash or Virtual Currency for Small Businesses?

Getting rid of cash is an alluring prospect.   First off, cash is filthy. A recent study done by New York University’s Center for Genomics and Systems Biology showed that cash is full of bacteria – including the “bacteria related to pneumonia, food poisoning, gastric ulcers and staph infections.”

Cash is expensive to make. Think of the cost of the machinery upkeep, the materials and more to create each coin and paper dollar. In addition, criminals love cash according to Mashable. And the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) says that bank robberies accounted for $30 million in theft in 2011, a figure that doesn’t include insurance fees or the 100 deaths or injuries that were related to those robberies that year. It might also put a dent in tax evasion, which has costs governments across the world as much as $3.1 billion annually.

Small businesses have more trouble with virtual currrency and the apps, cards and other forms of lectronic currency.  A study by LexisNexis and Javelin Strategy & Research discovered that smaller mobile merchants — small businesses that accept at least one type of payment through either mobile browsers, mobile applications or mobile point-of-sale systems — rely on fewer fraud-prevention solutions, meaning they are often more exposed to deceptive schemes.

Cash or Virtual Money?

 

Is Russia Sending Shivers to the EU?

Marc Champion writes:  If the countries of the EU can get together and plan, there is no reasons for the Russian stoppage of natural gas to effect them.

The Nord Stream pipeline project completed in 2012 leaves eight countries vulnerable instead of 18.  In addition, the 2009 shock prompted the EU to make a few changes of its own. A new 67-mile pipeline connecting the Slovakian and Hungarian gas grids should be fully operational by Jan. 1.

The Balkans, Hungary and Poland would come under real stress, however. (Finland and the Baltic states might also be severely affected, but only if Russia stopped supplies through pipelines outside Ukraine in a direct attack on those countries.) So long as EU members respond by spreading the pain and helping each other out, lost supplies would average 10 percent to 60 percent, from Greece to Poland, according to the EU stress tests.

On the other hand, if countries stop supplying others with gas as soon as they run out of surplus themselves, some will be hit much harder. Bosnia and Macedonia would lose 100 percent of their gas supplies, while Bulgaria and Serbia would lose 60 percent to 80 percent. So the severity of the impact would depend on just how willing countries were to work with and sacrifice for each other, making this a big test of EU “solidarity.” Nothing would please Putin more than to see the EU fail that test and so disillusion new members and applicants from the ex-communist bloc in Central Europe — including his hosts last week in Serbia.

 Pipelines

Bad Ideas Linger on in Economic Policy

Barry Ritholtz writes about the consequences of holding on to bad ideas.  There are none for the people who came up with them in the first place.  Particularly think tanks just go blissfully forward.

Here are some ideas that have failed without sufficient notice:  Profit maximizing economic actors, austerity as a virtuous policy during recessions, the efficient-market hypothesis, tax cuts pay for themselves, self-regulating markets.

During the financial crisis, including many attempts to negate the role radical deregulation of financial markets had as an underlying cause of the crisis. American Enterprise Institute’s Peter Wallison and Edward Pinto were the leading proponents of the anything-but-deregulation causation. First, they blamed the Community Reinvestment Act — the anti-redlining legislation that had nothing to do with subprime lending. Next, it was the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Federal Housing Administration. When that didn’t hold up they blamed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. When most of the subprime loans that went bust were shown to be from private lenders that didn’t follow Fannie or Freddie guidelines, they quietly changed the subject.
Regulation

Bankruptcy in Large USFinancial Institutions

The Jeffrey M. Lacker of the Federal Reserve of Richmond reports;  Here are the highlights of my speach at the National Conference of Bankruptcy Judges Annual Meeting at Chicago, Ill.

  • The bankruptcy process is an effective tool for reconciling the incentives of creditors and debtors. Yet the government has a long history of handling large complex financial institutions outside the Bankruptcy Code.
  • This has created two mutually reinforcing conditions: Investors feel protected by an implicit commitment of government support, and policymakers feel compelled to provide that support to avoid a disruptive adjustment of expectations.   Jeffrey Lacker’s Speech

Bankruptcy