One Billion $s Hacked from Banks

An international hacking ring that’s been active since at least the end of 2013 has stolen up to $1 billion from banks around the world, according to a cybersecurity firm report. The group has breached more than 100 banks in 30 countries through methods including programming ATMs to release money at certain times and transferring money to fake accounts, according to Russian security company Kaspersky Lab. The hackers become familiar with banks’ systems through phishing, taking screen shots as well as filming employees using work computers, the report said. The theft targets banks instead of customers, which means the hackers are focused on stealing money rather than information, according to Kaspersky principal security researcher Vicente Diaz. Financial institutions in the U.S., Russia, Germany, China and Ukraine have been targeted, but the hackers may be casting a bigger net to include banks in Africa and Europe.

Can Ukraine Change on $40 billion?

Leonid Bershidsky writes: Ukraine now has a four-year bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund. It’s still too early to celebrate. Like the cease-fire, the aid package isn’t very generous to Ukraine. But if it helps convince Kiev it needs economic reforms, that won’t be a bad thing.

In January, financier and philanthropist George Soros suggested putting together a $50 billion rescue deal for Kiev. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde talks about  $40 billion, but that’s pretty meaningless.

About $17.5 billion of that is supposed to come from the IMF. But even if all that money were disbursed immediately, it would only just bring Ukraine’s $6/4 billion foreign reserves to the levels they had in January 2013. That month, the reserves amounted to $24.5 billion.. The package’s small size could spur the country to more efficiency.

Lagarde said Ukraine had shown commitment to reform, but the proof she cited was meager.

The program will require the authorities’ steadfast determination to reform the economy,” If the cease-fire holds, however, the government will no longer be able to use the war in the east as an excuse.

Yatsenyuk says his government isn’t looking for excuses.  So far, Ukrainian government bonds — the three-year one trades at a 37.89 percent yield — and the hryvnia’s exchange rate have shown no positive reaction to the deal, however. The markets don’t trust the current Ukrainian government to do a better job than its predecessors.

Ukraine’s best hope is that civil society, empowered by last year’s anti-corruption revolution again former president Viktor Yanukovych, will push the political leadership and bureaucracy toward positive change.  As Valeri Pekar, head of Ukraine’s main business lobby, the Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, writes: “The political system is too slow in catching up to the growing demands of society. Our job is to help align it with the forces of reform.”

Experience tells me the fresh start, offered by the cease-fire and the IMF deal, will be one more in a long series of Ukraine’s missed opportunities. Yet I want to believe the country will finally seize this chance. If Ukraine shows that a large post-Soviet country can turn itself into an economically viable democracy, it will be a positive example for its neighbors, rather than a laughingstock or easy prey. That’s the only way for it to win a lasting victory over President Vladmir Putin’s Russia.

Ukraine Ceasefire?

Will a Shared Economy Make the World Flat?

Navi Radjou and Jaideep Prabhu write:  In a famous 1937 essay, the economist Ronald Coase argued that the reason Western economies are organized like a pyramid, with a few large producers at the top and millions of passive consumers below, is the existence of transaction costs – the intangible costs associated with search, bargaining, decision-making, and enforcement. But with the Internet, mobile technologies, and social media all but eliminating such costs in many sectors, this economic structure is bound to change.
Indeed, in the United States and across Europe, vertically integrated value chains controlled by large companies are already being challenged by new consumer-orchestrated value ecosystems, which allow consumers to design, build, market, distribute, and trade goods and services among themselves, eliminating the need for intermediaries. This bottom-up approach to value creation is enabled by the horizontal (or peer-to-peer) networks and do-it-yourself (DIY) platforms that form the foundation of the “frugal” economy.

Two key factors are fueling the frugal economy’s growth: a protracted financial crisis, which has weakened the purchasing power of middle-class consumers in the West, and these consumers’ increasing sense of environmental responsibility. Eager to save money and minimize their ecological impact, Western consumers are increasingly eschewing individual ownership in favor of shared access to products and services.

As it stands, nearly 50% of Europeans believe that, within a decade, cars will be consumed as a “shared” good, instead of privately owned, and 73% predict the rapid growth of car-sharing services. BlaBlaCar, Europe’s leading car-sharing service, now transports more passengers monthly than Eurostar, the high-speed rail service connecting London with Paris and Brussels. And the better-known service Uber is causing panic among taxi companies worldwide. Despite recent controversy, the company, founded in 2009, is valued at more than $40 billion.

This shift in consumer attitudes extends far beyond transport. The peer-to-peer home-sharing service Airbnb now rents more room-nights annually than the entire Hilton hotel chain. And the peer-to-peer lending market, which bypasses banks and their hefty hidden fees, surpassed the $1 billion mark in early 2012.

The global market for shared products and services is expected to grow dramatically, from $15 billion today to $335 billion by 2025, without requiring any major investment.

The nature of horizontal networks supports this prediction. Such networks begin working long before they reduce transaction costs. By enabling ordinary people to do at home what, a decade ago, only scientists in large labs could do, the Internet economy is lowering the costs of research and development, design, and production of new goods and services in many sectors.

The transition to a frugal economy is happening. Traditional companies must get on board – or risk becoming obsolete.

Is the World Flat?

Boomerang Generation in the US

by Zachary Bleemer, Meta Brown, Donghoon Lee, and Wilbert van der Klaauw – Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Young Americans’ living arrangements have changed strikingly over the past fifteen years, with recent cohorts entering the housing market at much lower rates and lingering much longer in their parents’ households. The New York Times Magazine reported this past summer on the surge in college-educated young people who “boomerang” back to living with their parents after graduation. Joining that trend are the many other members of this cohort who have never left home, whether or not they attend college. Why might young people increasingly reside with their parents? They may be unable to find employment, they may be saving their income to pay down increasing levels of student debt, or they may be unable to afford the rent for an apartment in the face of lower income or higher housing prices.  Boomerang Generation

China: Online Shopping and Drone Delivery

The CHinese are shopping on line and leaving malls empty. The online revolution promises to boost productivity and could create 46 million new jobs in China by 2025, many of them higher-skilled, according to a report by New York-based McKinsey & Co. in July. The losers will be as many as 31 million traditional roles, the equivalent of the entire employed population in Britain.

Asia’s largest Internet company is partnering with Shanghai YTO Express Logistics Co. to deliver ginger tea packets to 450 Chinese customers who volunteered for the one-time drone tests, according to an e-mailed statement from Alibaba. Remote-controlled helicopters are expected to distribute 50 parcels from Alibaba’s Taobabo Marketplace in Beijing Wednesday, before moving to Shanghai and Guangzhou.

The flights, if successful and uncontested by authorities, would give the budding commercial drone industry a boost in China, where the military allots only a fifth of the airspace to civilian use. Amazon — the largest Internet retailer by sales – – has begun testing remote deliveries abroad after asking the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to speed approvals for drones tests in Washington state.

Alibaba and YTO said they have notified Chinese aviation authorities about the flights as required by regulation and believed that the deliveries complied with all existing rules.

At least one of the drones was expected to fly from YTO’s warehouse in the eastern outskirts of Beijing and reach the 330 meter (1,100 feet) China World Trade Center in less than an hour. A deliveryman will await the parcel’s arrival on the ground floor and carry it to customer, Jia Yun, a Taobao spokeswoman, said by phone from Beijing.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China issued regulations to 2009, requiring operators of drones to be identified when applying to use such devices, according to a posting on the agency’s website. Chinese regulators are considering license requirements for drone operators, a step the FAA is also discussing for unmanned commercial flights.

U.S. moves to restrict commercial drones have frustrated Amazon’s plans to fly light packages to customers in 30 minutes or less. Drone use in the U.S. was dealt another setback last month after an operator lost control of a SZ DJI Technology Co.- built quadcopter and it crashed on White House grounds, according to the Secret Service.

Alibaba Drones

Growth in US?

Federal Rserve Bank of San Francisco comments:   Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee participants have been persistently too optimistic about future U.S. economic growth. Real GDP growth forecasts have typically started high, but then are revised down over time as the incoming data continue to disappoint. Possible explanations for this pattern include missed warning signals about the buildup of imbalances before the crisis, overestimation of the efficacy of monetary policy of following a balance-sheet recession, and the natural tendency of forecasters to extrapolate from recent data. .

Economic forecasting can be a humbling endeavor. In a cross-country study of private-sector forecasts from 1989 to 1998, Loungani (2001) finds that “the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.” He also finds that forecast revisions in one direction tend to be followed by further revisions in the same direction and that one-year-ahead growth forecasts are typically too optimistic. An updated study by Ahir and Loungani (2014) finds that the private-sector’s record of failure to predict recessions remained intact through 2008 and 2009. A study by Alessi, et al. (2014) finds that one-year-ahead growth forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the European Central Bank from 2008 to 2012 exhibited substantial overoptimism, averaging 1.6 to 2.4 percentage points above actual growth. The SEP growth forecasts fit the pattern of these various studies.Research shows that people tend to use simple forecast rules that extrapolate from recent data (Williams 2013).

Research has identified numerous instances of persistent bias in the track records of professional forecasters. These findings apply not only to forecasts of growth, but also of inflation and unemployment (Coibion and Gorodnichencko 2012). Overall, the evidence raises doubts about the theory of “rational expectations.” This theory, which is the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics, assumes that peoples’ forecasts exhibit no systematic bias towards optimism or pessimism. Allowing for departures from rational expectations in economic models would be a way to more accurately capture features of real-world behavior.  Growth

Growth?

 

 

Is Greek Wealth Going to Gold?

Mark O’Byrne writes:  Recent official soundings from the UK and German governments saying that exposure to Greece is limited only underscores the depth of denial, ignorance and lack of consensus in hte Euro area.  A Greek exit from the euro would profoundly weaken the euro experiment and create a dangerous precedent for all future crises in the region.

The European economy is the largest middle class economy in the world. With over 400 million relatively affluent consumers it represents a massive portion of the net global economy and as such a breakup of part of it would be felt across the world in credit spreads and capital decisions for years to come.

This would not have been because of Greek exit, but rather because of the inability of the authorities to manage the crisis as risks initially built up, then as bail outs were designed and implemented and then as these efforts surely failed.

We are witnesses to an epic failure of planning, statecraft and social justice. Regardless of where your politics lie, these elements are critical for a modern globally connected economy to function.

The geopolitical backdrop is one of suspicion and hostility in the form of a festering proxy war between western and Russian interests in Ukraine and regional crisis and humanitarian catastrophe in the middle east as Syria and Iraq descend into stateless anarchy. These factors reduce the odds of a successful solution in Greece being found in time.

The share value of Greek banks has cratered.  In what is probably the worst performance for the sector on record, the shares of all four major banks have crashed.

Forbes list five main causes for the collapse:

  1. Deposit flight has accelerated.
  2. ECB liquidity could be cut off.
  3. Potential public and private debt restructuring.
  4. Low profitability.
  5. Reliance on deferred tax assets – Forbes explains it as an over-reliance by Greek banks on liquidity from the state.

The real danger is that the Greeks themselves lose confidence. There are tentative signs that money is again being sent abroad, as it was in mid-2012. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou at JPMorgan points out that €350m was sent from Greece to Luxembourg money funds since the start of last week.

Concerns about bank holidays and also a return to the drachma have returned and Greeks are looking for ways to prevent further destruction of their wealth.  Gold is ebing bought.  For Greeks, Storage in Switzerland remains a favoured way of owning gold.

 

Small Bank Regulation in the US

Frank Keating, president and CEO of the American Banker’s Association:  I constantly hear from hometown bankers that their examiners—the government officials who visit their banks every year to make sure they make safe loans and follow the rules—are recommending actions suited for banks many times their size. They call it “trickle-down regulation.”

Here’s an example: I recently heard from the CEO of a community bank with $1 billion in assets. His examiner urged him to conduct a “stress test” that is only required for banks with $10 billion or more in assets. On the one hand, a stress test is expensive and time-consuming to conduct—not to mention completely unnecessary for a hometown bank with a traditional business model. But on the other hand, if my friend rejects his examiner’s suggestion, he might risk getting a poor regulatory rating that could hurt his bank. In this context, the suggestion really isn’t a suggestion at all.

You may have a hard time getting worked up about the costs of trickle-down regulation on banks. That’s understandable, because it’s hard to see the costs of excessive regulation. Rules from Washington, D.C., don’t directly come with a price tag. But their cumulative weight requires banks to hire more staffers and consultants to understand and follow them—just as you might hire an accountant to help with your taxes if the IRS required you to pay at a higher bracket. These staff members don’t make loans or sell financial products that serve bank customers, but they often must be paid well because of their specialized expertise.

The result, according to researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, is that when a small hometown bank hires additional staff to follow extra regulations, that bank’s already-slim profits shrink by anywhere from 11 to 37 percent. Those shrinking profits have real-world consequences for the bank’s town and the people who live there: less lending for small businesses and entrepreneurs, fewer mortgage loans and fewer investments in the financial technologies of the future.

But beyond the shadow costs that trickle-down regulation imposes on everyday Americans is the basic unfairness of arbitrarily making people follow rules they’re not required to follow. You’d be furious if the DMV failed your daughter for not knowing how to drive an 18-wheeler, and you’d be steaming if the IRS charged you a tax rate for a higher bracket. Bank examiners shouldn’t be allowed to make up their own rules, either.

Small Banks

Misogyny in Silicon Valley?

Computer programmer Lauren Mosenthal and her partner, Eileen Carey, came to California attracted by possibility.   The only problem with their dream is that Silicon Valley has never produced a female Gates, Zuckerberg or Kalanick. There are a few high-profile female entrepreneurs in the Bay Area, but despite the very visible success of corporate titans Meg Whitman, Sheryl Sandberg and Marissa Mayer, who signed up with companies after they took off—their numbers are relatively minuscule.

Despite that discouraging fact, the two women spent their 20s deep inside the valley’s bro community—a culture that has been described as savagely misogynistic. In inverse ratio to the forward-looking technology the community produces, it is stunningly backward when it comes to gender relations. Google “Silicon Valley” and “frat boy culture” you’ll find a financing system that rewards young men and shortchanges women.

Shanley Kane is a young tech industry observer and founder of Model View Culture, an acid-penned, widely read website on which she routinely exposes and excoriates the white brogrammer establishment. In an interview with MIT Technology Review in December, she said venture capitalists talk about the need to get 10-year-old girls into science in order to bring up the numbers of women they will fund, but don’t fund the ones already in the industry. “We are not getting hired, and we are not getting promoted, and we are being systematically driven out of the industry,” she said.  Women in Silicon Valley

Where Are the Women in Silicon Valley

Chinese Men Looking Worldwide for Brides

Rather than dwelling on the fact that sex-selective abortions continue despite a government ban, Chinese media interpreted the sex ratio as a threat to men, not women. On Jan. 21, web giant Sina’s arm in Henan, China’s most populous province wondered aloud on social media platform Weibo whether the news was “heart-stopping” and exhorted bachelors to “start making an effort!”

Meanwhile, a Beijing statistician sharing the latest figures to his Weibo account wrote, “Tomorrow I am going to get my son to hurry up and find a girlfriend at his elementary school.” Beijing News even suggested that Ukrainian women could be a solution to China’s problem. The story kicked off with a question: “Just how hard is it for a diaosi,” slang for young bachelors of modest means, “to find a wife?”

After explaining the severe imbalance that the ratio represents, it added that Chinese brides are a popular “export” to many countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the United States, a trend it said had depleted China’s supply of eligible women still further. It offered a chart of the best destinations around the globe for Chinese men to find spouses. Japan and South Korea were particularly promising, the paper said, claiming that 26 percent of South Korean women who took foreign spouses in 2012 chose Chinese men. The trend is bound to grow, the argument went, since popular Korean television actress Park Chae-rim married her Chinese actor beau, Gao Ziqi, in September 2014.

Chinese Brides