Is Saudi Arabi Deliberately Going After US Oil Production?

Saudi Arabia is largely responsible for the dramatic fall in oil and gas prices in recent months, a U.S. government official said.

Richard Fisher, the head of the Dallas Federal Reserve, said “the Saudis have engineered” the oil crisis. He was speaking at the Economic Club of New York.

“We are a huge supplier of energy. The Saudis took a while to realize what was going on,” Fisher said, referring to the massive growth of the U.S. oil industry in recent years.

Fisher is the most prominent U.S. official to pin the blame largely on Saudi Arabia.

As recently as July, oil traded at over $100 a barrel. By January, it had plunged below $50.

Saudi officials have repeatedly blamed supply and demand for the price meltdown. They say they were caught off guard by the price decline, and acknowledge this is putting a lot of pressure on U.S. shale.

“Although Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries did not engineer the reduction in the price of oil, there’s a positive side effect, whereby at a certain price, we will see how many shale oil production companies run out of business,” Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, a member of the Saudi royal family and prominent global investor, said in January.

The oil games: While the price of oil started falling at the end of the summer, it was exacerbated on Thanksgiving Day when OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, voted not to scale back on production. That send oil prices diving.

Fisher also noted that the Saudis benefit not just economically, but politically from the oil price decline. Low oil prices especially hurt their biggest regional rival: Iran.

“I’m sure King Abdullah thought to himself, ‘I’ve also done a favor vis-a-vis Iran,'” Fisher said.  Iran’s economy needs oil to trade around $135. Saudi has far larger cash reserves and is thus able to withstand a downturn in prices for much longer.

What’s ahead for oil prices? Given how motivated Saudi Arabia is to keep prices low right now, Fisher doesn’t expect oil will shoot up to $100 a barrel again any time soon.

“From a budget stand point, [the Saudis] have reserves that can handle this,” he said.

While many energy companies are laying off workers and slashing spending, Fisher said that cheap oil’s overall impact on the U.S. economy will be positive. A typical American driver is expected to save $750 this year at the pump, according to government estimates.

Even in his home state of Texas, Fisher said the economy has diversified a lot more beyond oil, so it’s unlikely to be nearly as bad of an effect as the last oil bust of the 1980s.

Oil Price Wars

Woman Power

Globally, approximately 22 percent of elected parliamentary seats go to women but in Rwanda, that figure is an impressive 64 percent. In the wake of the Rwandan genocide, 70 percent of the country’s surviving population was female, and this along with a quota requiring 30 percent of political candidates to be female, helped bring about massive change.

How does Rwanda compare to other countries across the world? Andorra, perched high in the Pyrenees between France and Spain, comes second with a 50-50 gender split in its parliament. Cuba rounds off the top three with just under 49 percent. What about the United States? It’s all the way down in 72nd position – only 20 percent of government seats in the United States are held by women.

Parliaments with the Highest Female Participation

Did Maxine Waters, John McCain and Carl Levin Oust Credit Suisse CEO Dougan?

Dougan took over Credit Suisse in 2007, just in time to catch the worst global financial crisis in decades.

Last year Swiss lawmakers started pressuring him to resign after the bank plead guilty to helping clients evade taxes. The $2.6 billion fine the bank had to pay resulted in its first quarterly loss since 2008.

Pressure was mounting on Dougan from inside the bank too. After he testified on Capitol Hill about the tax evasion matter, a staff group representing Swiss bankers at Credit Suisse and other Swiss banks demanded that he apologize. They said Dougan’s testimony simply served to “vilify lots of employees that had nothing to do with offshore U.S. banking.”

Who knew what and when has been a continuig question in the investigation of banks, money laundering and aiding and abetting income tax evasion.  It is probable that the Department of Justice, the SEC, IRS and White House did not want to force an American banking CEO to plead guilty to criminal activities.

The Senate Committee on Investigations and a posse of legislators in the House and Senate kept insisting that top brass be brought to justice..  It is probable that a foreign bank was picked to take the rap.

Brady Dugan has claimed to have no knowledge of the schemes to aid and abet tax evasion.

When Maxine Waters insisted that the Department of Labor hold hearings on a Credit Suisse exemption from their criminal plea, evidence was submitted that Dougan did in fact know all about these schemes.  Pressure brought by the Labor Department hearing, the outcome of which has not yet been announced, may well have forced his resignation.

Credit Suisse wants the 2 billion US pension business it has been handling.  Proof that Credit Suisse had put aside its “culture of corruption” may have forced Dougan to step down.

It will be interesting to see if the exemption is now granted to Credit Suisse, and the reasons for which it is granted.  Clearly talk has been flying from the DOJ to the White House to the SEC.

Brady Dougan

 

 

Equality for Women, or Equal Opportunity?

The head of the U.N. agency promoting equality for women is lamenting that a girl born today will be an 81-year-old grandmother before she has the same chance as a man to be CEO of a company — and she will have to wait until she’s 50-years-old to have an equal chance to lead a country.

Twenty years after 189 countries adopted a blueprint to achieve equality for women, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka said that not a single country has reached gender parity and equality.

The executive director of UN Women spoke ahead of International Women’s Day on Friday and next week’s meeting of the Commission on the Status of Women. The commission will review the 150-page platform for action to achieve equality that was adopted at the groundbreaking U.N. women’s conference in Beijing in 1995.

Although there has been progress since Beijing, especially in women’s health and girls’ education, Mlambo-Ngcuka said, there are fewer than 20 female heads of state and government, and the number of women lawmakers has increased from 11 percent to just 22 percent in the last two decades.

“We just don’t have critical mass to say that post-Beijing women have reached a tipping point in their representation,” she said.

The Beijing platform called for governments to end discrimination against women and close the gender gap in 12 critical areas including health, education, employment, political participation and human rights. For the first time, it recognized that women have the right to control their own sexuality without coercion, and reaffirmed their right to decide whether and when to have children.

Mlambo-Ngcuka said UN Women is looking for 10 world leaders, 10 CEOs and 10 universities to “break the mode” and become champions of the agency’s “He for She” campaign, which calls on the world’s male leaders, fathers, sons, husbands and brothers to stand up and support equality for women in all areas of life.”

Should Women Use Bitcoins?

Roughly 2.5 billion adults in the world don’t have access to banks, which means somewhere in the order of 5 billion people belong to households that are cut off from a financial system that the rest of us take for granted. They can’t start savings accounts. They don’t have checking accounts. They can’t get credit cards. They live in places where banks don’t want to go, and because of this, they remain effectively walled off from the global economy. They are called the unbanked. But they are not unreachable, not by a long shot, and one of the biggest and most exciting prospects bitcoiners talk about is using their cryptocurrency to bring these billions of people roaring into the twenty-first century, Foreign Affairs points out.

The Caribbean is an area of the emerging-market world where a strong case can be made for locals to use bitcoin to get around a restric­tive financial system.

Should women in developing countries use bitcoins?

Bitcoin is digital money you can send person-to-person via the net and without a third party. This means fees are much lower, accounts cannot be frozen, and there are no pre-requisites or limits to having a bank account.

Developing countries desperately need locally informed, well-financed giving. Strong local organisations create local leadership, grassroots power sources and more successful, sustainable solutions.

Bitcoin allows donors to give directly to organisations abroad, without needing a headquarters to vet and meter out donations.  There are no chargebacks, and no fees go to PayPal or Visa. (PayPal charges 2.2%+$0.30 per transaction; credit card companies charge around 1.5-3% per transaction). The donation goes much further—directly to the local organisation and the good work they do, and 100% of the contribution is actually donated to the beneficiary. Plus, no-fee technology opens up charities to donors interested in giving smaller amounts of money.

Imagine life without a bank account. How would you start a business? What if you wanted to export products? What if you wanted to sell your paintings, handmade clothes, music or e-book online? How would you get paid? One-half of the worlds adult population does not have access to banking. If someone wants to create a digital product and sell it online, they can’t get paid. They’re effectively removed from the formal global economy, and they know it.

But what if they could get paid? Would it inspire them to create more and to tap into new markets? Could it bring them more wealth? It already is.

Further, without a bank account allowing for international wire transfers, most people use companies like Western Union to send money to their families abroad.

Some remittance corridors, such as from South Africa to Botswana, take average fees of around 23%, meaning the impact of BitPesa could be even higher.

Bitcoin is more than just a currency. Its underlying technology allows information to be recorded in secure, open and decentralised transactions. The blockchain and technologies built on top of it allow for the creation and registration of contract.  The contracts are irreversible and can be self-executing, without the need (or opportunity) for human intervention.

Transactions are unalterable and public on the blockchain. The ability to permanently secure property, transactions and identities online is significant in countries lacking the rule of law. It won’t always guarantee enforcement, but it has the potential to.

Bitcoins

 

Japan Overheating?

Takashi Nakamichi writes:  Japan’s central bank should hold fire on extra measures for some time to ensure the economy doesn’t “overheat,” an economic adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said.

The inflation rate may be falling back toward zero on a drop in global oil prices, but it will “eventually start rising on its own” and likely reach around 2% by early 2016.

Mr. Honda, one of the most vocal advocates of aggressive monetary easing, said cheaper oil in the long run will strengthen inflationary pressure by stimulating consumer spending. A weak yen, the effects of the ongoing Bank of Japan easing, and anticipated increases in base pay this year will also put upward pressure on prices.

“Under these circumstances, if you undertook additional monetary easing, (the inflation rate) would go even higher,” Mr. Honda, a Shizuoka University professor, said. “Is it necessary to do such a thing?”

Mr. Honda added that even if the inflation rate declines further, as long as the main cause of it is an oil-driven drop in costs, and as long as Japan’s demand-supply gap is improving, “additional easing shouldn’t be undertaken.” Otherwise, the economy “could overheat over the latter half of this year,” he said.

Mr. Honda’s remarks were the latest in a series of comments from the government and advisers to the prime minister suggesting that the Abe administration sees additional easing as counterproductive, at least in the near-term. The development represents a rare departure from the traditional pattern in which the government regularly pushes the BOJ to do more to end a decade and a half of deflation.

Ruling party politicians appear particularly worried that if extra easing causes the yen to weaken more, further raising the costs of imports, that would reflect poorly on their parties in next month’s municipal elections. Yet if domestic demand remains weak beyond the summer, further easing could become necessary.  The yen’s  period of excessive strength appears to have ended.

A measure of fair value known as purchasing power parity suggests the present dollar-yen levels may be at a kind of upper limit in the exchange rate’s comfort zone.

The yen could weaken further if the BOJ takes additional easing action or if the U.S. Federal Reserve starts raising its policy interest rate, but that would only be a temporary “overshoot,” Mr. Honda said. “Even if the Japanese yen depreciated more, it would come back to the comfort zone. That’s my guess.”

QE?

No Jobs for Our Children?

Youth unemployment has been at the forefront of political and academic debate since the unfolding of the Great Recession in 2008, exploited to a greater or lesser extent by the contenders of most elections that have taken place across Europe since then. Edited by Juan Dolado of the European University Institute, this eBook takes into account the relevance of policy lessons from recent experience to provide a clear analysis of the factors that affect the impact labour-market policies have on youth unemployment. The contributors present a case-by-case analysis for a range of countries across Europe, spread both geographically and also by the divergent approaches taken. It covers countries with dual vocational training systems; dual labour markets; those where the ratio between youth and adult unemployment is notably high or low; and an overview of the recently launched Youth Guarantee programme. No Jobs for Young People

Jobless Young

A Bad Day for Banks

Matt Levine brikskly sums it up:

Rough day for Royal Bank of Scotland.  RBS last posted net income back  when just about anyone could post net income; since then, counting today’s 3.5 billion pound ($5.4 billion) net loss for 2014, the total losses come to just under 50 billion pounds. That’s more than 9,000 pounds for every man, woman and child in Scotland. It’s more than Bank of America has paid in mortgage settlements.  At some point, if you were RBS’s managers or its owners (mostly the U.K. government), wouldn’t you start thinking it might not be worth it to keep going?

A very bank-y thing about RBS is that, after seven years of multi-billion-pound losses, management’s focus is on share repurchases: “By the time we get to 2016, we hope to have satisfied the preconditions we think are needed in order to start a discussion” with regulators about dividends or share repurchases, says the chief financial officer. I feel like the regular-company model is, if you make a lot of money, you give it back to shareholders; if not, not so much. The RBS model is more like: We are losing so much of your money, you shouldn’t trust us with it, here, you take it back. Capital requirements make this difficult, but if RBS can shrink its assets faster than it loses money, it stands a chance.

And for Standard Chartered. StanChart’s board rather surprisingly parted ways with its chief executive officer, Peter Sands, and replaced him with former JPMorgan banker

The chairman is also leaving. “With the share price having about halved since its March 2013 peak, the stock market was looking for a fresh start.

And for HSBC.  HSBC executives did not enjoy testifying before Parliament about all the tax-dodging that HSBC facilitated, tCEO Stuart Gulliver’s use of a Swiss bank account held by Panamanian shell company to receive his bonuses, which Gulliver has patiently and repeatedly explained was just to keep his co-workers from seeing how much he made, and not to dodge taxes.

And for Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley agreed to pay $2.6 billion to settle Justice Department mortgage-fraud claims,and also “increased legal reserves for this settlement and other legacy residential mortgage-backed securities matters by approximately $2.8 billion” for 2014.

Pyramids?

 

 

 

Women Focus on Growth and Its Meaning?

Philip Pilkigton throws out some new ideas: The basic idea runs as such: firms want to expand. In order to expand, they must invest. But in order to invest they must accumulate profits. Now, you will probably think “they can borrow money to invest to too”. This is true. But in the Post-Keynesian theory it is sometimes assumed that the leverage ratio of firms remains somewhat constant. We will come back to this in a moment. Let us now lay out the most basic form of the Post-Keynesian growth equation for the firm. It runs as such:

leverage equation

How should we read this intuitively? The most interesting component from our perspective is the convention that allows the firm to borrow, p. As we can see, when this term increases in numerical value this leads to a higher denominator. This means that a higher rate of growth, g, will be able to take place for a lower rate of profit, r.

The growth equation as laid out above remains a handy tool provided we recognise it for what it is.  I remain highly skeptical of long-run modelling and of the usefulness of some of the comparative statics approaches that are deployed.

Should we redefine growth and its centrality in our economic thoughts?

Growth?

Women in High Tech US 1946

ENIAC PROGRAMMERS PROJECT

In 1946 six brilliant young women programmed the first all-electronic, programmable computer, the ENIAC, a project run by the U.S. Army in Philadelphia as part of a secret World War II project. They learned to program without programming languages or tools (for none existed)—only logical diagrams. By the time they were finished, ENIAC ran a ballistics trajectory—a differential calculus equation—in seconds! Yet when the ENIAC was unveiled to the press and the public in 1946, the women were never introduced; they remained invisible.

The ENIAC Programmers Project has been devoted for nearly two decades to researching their work, recording their stories, and seeking honors for the ENIAC Six—the great women of ENIAC.

The Computers which premiered at the Seattle International Film Festival on May 24, 2014 and details their story.

Featuring Movietone footage of the 1940s and never-before-seen interviews with the ENIAC Programmers, this inspiring story will make students believe that programming careers lie within their grasp, and adults cheer. This is a story lost for almost 70 years about the founding of technologies we cannot live without—by six incredible young women everyone should know!

The ENIAC girls were trained to understand the internal wiring diagrams of the ENIAC machine, and … could diagnose troubles almost down to the individual vacuum tube. Since [they] knew the application and the machine, [they] learned to diagnose troubles as well as, if not better than, the engineer. In a few cases, the local craft knowledge that these female programmers accumulated significantly affected the design of the ENIAC and subsequent computers. ENIAC programmer Betty Holberton recalled one particularly significant episode when she convinced John von Neumann to include a ‘stop instruction’ in the machine: Although initially dismissive, von Neumann eventually recognized the programmer’s legitimate need for such an instruction.

High Tech 1946!