Abe Going Forward in Japan

In the wake of his reinstatement as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party for another three-year term, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to reshuffle his Cabinet and LDP executive posts possibly in early October as part of efforts to push forward his economic program.

The Japan Post initial public offering could be just what the doctor ordered to enliven the country’s stagnant banking sector.

The Bank of Japan refrains from boosting stimulus even though the economy shrank in the last quarter.

Standard & Poor’s has cut the nation’s long-term credit rating one level to A+, saying it sees little chance of the government’s current strategy accelerating growth and inflation over the next few years.  Downgrade not thought to matter much.

The Bank of Japan’s closely watched tankan survey of business sentiment, due out Oct. 1, is expected to show the first decline in three quarters.

Abe Going Forward

Emissions Scandal: Libor on Four Wheels

In the US, in important consumer areas like banking and automobiles, we pass legislation that protects consumers and keeps them safe.  In theory.  We have often discussed the problem of banking regulation on this site.  The ongoing Volkswagen emissions scandal is part and parcel with our failure to jail culpable bankers.

In this case, we regulate fuel emissions to improve the environment.  Often car manufacturers conduct the emissions tests.  If they don’t, the test are conducted in controlled venues.  Cr manufacturers have figured out how to make cars look like they are complying with emissions standards  under these tests.  When the car goes out on the road, the car no longer meets the standards.

In Europe and in the US, diesel cars are desirable because they burn less fuel.  However, with emissions standards, it is apparently difficult to make a profit with a fuel efficient, environmentally-sound vehicle.

What happened with VW was Libor on wheels.  There is no doubt that other car manufacturers will be outed.  Ford already made a deal with the government.

If we take the time to make rules and laws, shouldn’t we try hard to enforce them?   Slowly people like Senators Warren and Sherrod Brown are calling the public’s attention to banking irregularities that tear down economies.  Cars will be next.

Libor on Wheels

 

Tarnished: Made in Germany

The Volkswagen emissions scandal has rocked Germany’s business and political establishment and analysts warn the crisis at the car maker could develop into the biggest threat to Europe’s largest economy.

Volkswagen is the biggest of Germany’s car makers and one of the country’s largest employers, with more than 270,000 jobs in its home country and even more working for suppliers.

Volkswagen Chief Executive Martin Winterkorn paid the price for the scandal over rigged emissions tests when he resigned on Wednesday and economists are now assessing its impact on a previously healthy economy.

“All of a sudden, Volkswagen has become a bigger downside risk for the German economythan the Greek debt crisis,” ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski told Reuters.

“If Volkswagen’s sales were to plunge in North America in the coming months, this would not only have an impact on the company, but on the German economy as a whole,” he added.

Volkswagen sold nearly 600,000 cars in the United States last year, around 6 percent of its 9.5 million global sales.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said the company could face penalties of up to $18 billion, more than its entire operating profit for last year.

Although such a fine would be more than covered by the 21 billion euros ($24 billion) the company now holds in cash, the scandal has raised fears of major job cuts.

The broader concern for the German government is that other car makers such as Daimler (DAIGn.DE) and BMW (BMWG.DE) could suffer fallout from the Volkswagen disaster. There is no indication of wrongdoing on the part of either company and some analysts said the wider impact would be limited.

The German government said on Wednesday that the auto industry would remain an “important pillar” for the economy despite the deepening crisis surrounding Volkswagen.

“It is a highly innovative and very successful industry for Germany, with lots of jobs,” a spokeswoman for the economy ministry said.

But analysts warn that it is exactly this dependency on the automobile sector that could become a threat to an economy forecast to grow at 1.8 percent this year. Germany is already having to face up to the slowdown in the Chinese economy.

“Should automobile sales go down, this could also hit suppliers and with them the wholeeconomy,” industry expert Martin Gornig from the Berlin-based DIW think tank told Reuters.

In 2014, roughly 775,000 people worked in the German automobile sector. This is nearly two percent of the whole workforce.

In addition, automobiles and car parts are Germany’s most successful export — the sector sold goods worth more than 200 billion euros ($225 billion) to customers abroad in 2014, accounting for nearly a fifth of total German exports.

The German BGA trade association also tried to calm the public by saying there were no signs that customers abroad were starting to doubt quality and reliability of German companies.

But he acknowledges there is a degree of concern among German companies that the scandal over cheating on U.S. diesel emission could have a domino effect on their businesses, eroding the cherished ‘Made in Germany’ label.

VW Emissions Deceit

Who Called for the Defeat Device at VW?

Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn stepped down Wednesday over the scandal in which the German carmaker admitted to rigging its diesel cars’ emissions to pass U.S. tests.

In a statement, Winterkorn said he took responsibility for the “irregularities” found in diesel engines but that he was “not aware of any wrongdoing on my part.”

No replacement for the post of CEO was announced.

“Volkswagen needs a fresh start — also in terms of personnel,” he said. “I am clearing the way for this fresh start with my resignation.”

“This is the only way to win back trust. I am convinced that the Volkswagen Group and its team will overcome this grave crisis,” he added.

Following his statement, VW’s share price was up 8.7 percent at 121 euros.

Still, it has a long way to make up for the declines that saw nearly 25 billion euros (around $28 billion) wiped off the company’s market value.

Winterkorn had come under intense pressure since last Friday’s disclosure from the Environmental Protection Agency that the company had tried to dupe testers over emissions coming from its diesel cars.  His contract was scheduled to be extended by two years through 2018 at a meeting this Friday of the supervisory board.

The EPA has said Volkswagen could face fines of as much as $18 billion. Other countries, among them South Korea, have also ordered investigations into emission levels of VW cars and some law firms in North America have filed class-action suits.

On Tuesday, Volkswagen said 11 million of its vehicles worldwide contained the so-called “defeat device” that allowed the cars to beat the testers.

In April Winterkorn won a battle against the car executive of the 20th Century, Ferdinand Piech.  Piech is a member of the Porsche family, and the battle against Winterkorn may be the only one he lost in his legendary career.  One of these two men, but likely not both, is responsbile for the “defeat device.”

VW Emissions Deceit

 

VW Emissions: German Reported to Tip Off California Air Resources Board

Joanna Walters writes:   The emissions-fixing scandal that has engulfed Volkswagen in the US could extend to other companies and countries, one of the officials involved in uncovering the alleged behaviour has told the Guardian.

Billions of pounds have been wiped off the value of global carmakers amid growing concerns that emissions tests may have been rigged across the industry.

“We need to ask the question, is this happening in other countries and is this happening at other manufacturers? Some part of our reaction is not even understanding what has happened exactly,” said John German, one of the two co-leads on the US team of the International Council for Clean Transportation (ICCT), the European-based NGO that raised the alarm.

South Korea said on Tuesday it would investigate emissions of VW Jetta and Gold models and Audi A3 cars produced in 2014 and 2015. If problems are found, South Korea’s environment ministry said its probe could be expanded to all German diesel imports, which have surged in popularity in recent years in a market long dominated by local producers led by Hyundai.

US Congress confirmed it is investigating the scandal on Monday. House energy and commerce committee chairman Fred Upton and oversight and investigations subcommittee chairman Tim Murphy announced that the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee will hold a hearing.

The US Justice Department is conducting a criminal investigation of Volkswagen admission.

VW shares fell by 19% in Frankfurt, wiping almost €15bn (£10.8bn) off its value.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said on Friday that VW had installed illegal software to cheat emission tests, allowing its diesel cars to produce up to 40 times more pollution than allowed. The US government ordered VW to recall 482,000 VW and Audi cars produced since 2009.

In response, Martin Winterkorn, chief executive of VW, said on Sunday he was “deeply sorry” for breaking the trust of the public and ordered an external investigation.

German tipped off regulators at the California Air Resources Board (Carb) and the EPA after conducting tests that showed major discrepancies in the amount of toxic emissions some VW cars were pumping out compared with the legal limits.

VW Emissions Deceit

Path to EU Vitality?

Hans-Helmut Kotz,Eric Labaye, Sven Smit write:  With the third Greek loan program almost in place, it is time for European leaders to start focusing on the future. That does not mean concentrating on Greece’s debt-service schedule over the next few months. Rather, it means embarking on a broad economic-reform program that combines growth-enhancing supply-side reforms and demand-side efforts to support investment and job creation.

Low oil prices, a more competitive euro exchange rate, and the European Central Bank’s judicious use of its full suite of monetary-stabilization policies – not to mention the fact that the threat of Grexit has been averted, at least for now – provide a favorable backdrop for such ambitious reforms. Even the political environment may not be as inauspicious as is often believed: Despite the worrying rise of anti-European sentiment in many countries – especially those hit hardest by the crisis – there is a palpable yearning among Europeans to break out of the continent’s debilitating economic (and political) rut.

Indeed, a recent McKinsey survey revealed not only that Europeans aspire to a more vibrant economy, higher incomes, and better public services (especially health care and education), but also that they are prepared to accept tradeoffs, including longer hours and reduced social protection, to achieve them. A whopping 91% of the 16,000 respondents said that they would favor changes to the status quo, even if it required some sacrifice.

And the status quo is in urgent need of change. As it stands, European economic output per capita remains well below 2008 levels. In most European countries, gross sovereign debt exceeds the threshold (60% of GDP) established by the Stability and Growth Pact. Immovable adjustment constraints have caused eight countries to experience nominal wage deflation in at least two years since 2008. And unemployment remains stubbornly high.  EU’s Vitality

European-Youth-Unemployment-Cartoon

Yellen Ignores Inflation?

Anatole Kaletsky writes:  The US Federal Reserve’s decision to delay an increase in interest rates should have come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments. The Fed’s decision merely confirmed that it is not indifferent to international financial stress, and that its risk-management approach remains strongly biased in favor of “lower for longer.” So why did the markets and media behave as if the Fed’s action (or, more precisely, inaction) was unexpected?

What really shocked the markets was not the Fed’s decision to maintain zero interest rates for a few more months, but the statement that accompanied it. The Fed revealed that it was entirely unconcerned about the risks of higher inflation and was eager to push unemployment below what most economists regard as its “natural” rate of around 5%.

It is this relationship – between inflation and unemployment – that lies at the heart of all controversies about monetary policy and central banking. And almost all modern economic models, including those used by the Fed, are based on the monetarist theory of interest rates pioneered by Milton Friedman in his 1967 presidential address to the American Economic Association.

Friedman’s theory asserted that inflation would automatically accelerate without limit once unemployment fell below a minimum safe level, which he described as the “natural” unemployment rate. In Friedman’s original work, the natural unemployment rate was a purely theoretical conjecture, founded on an assumption described as “rational expectations,” even though it ran counter to any normal definition of rational behavior.

The theory’s publication at a time of worldwide alarm about double-digit inflation offered central bankers exactly the pretext they needed for desperately unpopular actions. By dramatically increasing interest rates to fight inflation, policymakers broke the power of organized labor, while avoiding blame for the mass unemployment that monetary austerity was bound to produce.

A few years later, Friedman’s “natural” rate was replaced with the less value-laden and more erudite-sounding “non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment” (NAIRU). But the basic idea was always the same. If monetary policy is used to try to push unemployment below some pre-determined level, inflation will accelerate without limit and destroy jobs. A monetary policy aiming for sub-NAIRU unemployment must therefore be avoided at all costs.

A more extreme version of the theory asserts that there is no lasting tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. All efforts to stimulate job creation or economic growth with easy money will merely boost price growth, offsetting any effect on unemployment. Monetary policy must therefore focus solely on hitting inflation targets, and central bankers should be exonerated of any blame for unemployment.

The monetarist theory that justified narrowing central banks’ responsibilities to inflation targeting had very little empirical backing when Friedman proposed it. Since then, it has been refuted both by political experience and statistical testing. But, despite empirical refutation, the ideological attractiveness of monetarism, supported by the supposed authority of “rational” expectations, proved overwhelming. As a result, the purely inflation-oriented approach to monetary policy gained total dominance in both central banking and academic economics.  Inflation Over?

Yellen and Inflation

VW Emissions Deceit

Jerry Hirsch writes:  Volkkswagen called them “clean diesels,” branding them as the fun-to-drive alternatives to hybrids as it dominated the U.S. market for the engine technology.

Turns out the increasingly eco-conscious buyers of the sporty German cars have been unwittingly pumping smog into the air — because of software VW installed to cheat on U.S. emissions tests.

The world’s largest automaker has admitted selling 482,000 such diesels since 2009, California and U.S. regulators announced Friday. The scandal could cost the company billions of dollars in fines and lawsuit judgments and threatens to stunt the development of all diesel vehicles.

Autos editor Brian Thevenot explains how Volkswagen used a software trick to hide illegal pollution levels in half a million diesel cars.   VW’s software trick allows the cars to emit up to 40 times the legally allowed amount of nitrogen oxide, environmental officials said.

Nitrogen oxide is among the auto pollutants that put more smog into California’s skies.

Many owners of VW diesels — who tend to be enthusiasts — were enraged at being deceived.

The affected diesel models include: Jetta (model years 2009-15), Beetle (model years 2009-15), Audi A3 (model years 2009-15), Golf (model years 2009-15), and Passat (model years 2012-15).

The EPA made its charges by sending Volksagen a notice of violation of the Clean Air Act. It covers models equipped with 2.0-liter, four-cylinder diesel engines. The California Air Resources Board issued a similar letter for violations of state regulations.

Volkswagen admitted that the cars contained “defeat devices,” after EPA and the state air regulator demanded an explanation for the emission problems.

Volkswagen is the world’s biggest auto company, outselling Toyota and General Motors this year. The automaker issued a statement saying it is cooperating with the investigation and declined further comment.

Air board investigators started testing the vehicles on a special dynamometer — a kind of treadmill for vehicle testing — and on the open road using portable equipment.

VW programmed the engines to detect certification tests over many years and through three generations of engines, said Dave Sullivan, manager of product analysis at consulting firm AutoPacific Inc.

In addition to fines, VW will likely face consumer lawsuits.  Other vehicle manufacturers don’t appear to be doing the same thing, but still get good performance from diesel vehicles,” Tonachel said.

Consumers should not read VW’s action as an indictment of all diesel cars, said Don Anair, research director for the Clean Vehicles Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Consumer Reports on Friday suspended its recommendation for two of the diesels, the Jetta and Passat.

VW Emissions Deceit

Despite Slowdown in Economy, 10,000 New Startups are Registered Every Day

With shaky stock markets, a devalued currency and decreasing foreign investment, everyone agrees the Chinese economy is not the bright spot it used to be.

But according to the government, young entrepreneurs are a source of optimism.

Some 10,000 new businesses are registered every day, according to Premier Li Keqiang.

Jerry Wong founded Tech Temple of aid young entrepreneurs.

In an old factory among the hutongs near Beijing’s city center lies a temple. No, it’s not the kind of temple where you worship deities or pay respects to your ancestors. The people there do wish for longevity and good fortune, though.

This is Tech Temple, Beijing’s biggest coworking space yet. Sponsored by China- and Japan-based VC firm Infinity Ventures Partners, the 1,800 square meter two-story space — about the size of seven tennis courts — has already filled 240 of its 280 seats since opening just last month. Tech Temple boasts an open air office area, event space for up to 100 people, breakout and meeting rooms, a dining area, and a cafe. “The only thing you need to bring is your laptop and you can start working,” says co-founder Akio Tanaka, a VC from Infinity.

Infinity sunk half a million US dollars into the project. Tanaka says his team spent the whole summer renovating the former electronics factory with the help of some French architects. The minimalistic and efficient design looks great, as a result. He says, “I know startup places don’t need to be luxurious, but it also doesn’t need to be a dump.” Tanaka says the atmosphere and location are what have drawn about two dozen Chinese startup teams to the new space. While most tech firms are located in the city’s northwest Zhongguancun district (AKA the Silicon Valley of China), most of the angels and VCs live on the inner east side, so Tech Temple’s central location is ideal.

Infinity Ventures vets every startup on an individual basis, and Tanaka says they prefer people whom they already know. Sometimes they refer to the expertise of local Chinese startup news website 36kr, which has also set up shop there. Tanaka says the space is aimed at early stage internet startups.

Tech Temple China

Big Guys Beat Pao Down

Ellen Pao is not going to pursue an appeal.  In a case that has captivated audiences well beyond the tech industry, Pao filed suit in 2012 against the storied Silicon Valley venture capital firm, where she had been a junior partner. Had the jury found in her favor, she could have won as much as $160 million. Through 24 grueling days in a downtown San Francisco courthouse, she exposed stories of all-male company ski trips and sexual harassment of another partner at the firm.

She also brought up smaller slights: Double standards in how aggressive women are allowed to be and how their success in investments translates into promotions.

Kleiner Perkins came back with a brutal, and ultimately successful, attack on her performance and personality, which they said was just not right for “Team KP.”

While Pao’s story may have helped provoke a broader conversation about gender imbalance and bias outside of the courtroom, in court she lost on all counts.

Ellen Pao’s statement on her decision:

I have decided to end my lawsuit against Kleiner Perkins.

I feel gratified that my actions have encouraged others to speak up about discrimination in venture capital and technology more broadly. I am encouraged that companies are taking more action to quantify and address the disparity of opportunities for women and minorities.

To resolve the lawsuit, I will pay Kleiner Perkins for its legal costs as awarded by the court, although I firmly believe people who bring employment discrimination claims in good faith should not be forced to pay their employer’s legal bills. I will also drop my appeal, since I cannot afford the risk of even more costs to fight against a firm with tremendous financial resources and massive legal and PR armies.

To be clear, Kleiner and I have not reached any agreement to settle this matter. Settlement might have provided me with financial benefits, but only at the great cost of silence. To quote their lawyer, “KP is not interested in a settlement without a non disparagement provision,” meaning I would not be free to speak the truth about my experiences. I refuse to be silent on these important issues.

This battle has been painful for me personally and professionally, and also for my family. It is time to move on. I look forward to continuing the conversation about workplace equality and to building great companies in the technology industry.

Ellen Pao