Banking Industry Into Consumer Protection?

The banking industry is trolling the halls of Congress, trying to promote a change in the leadership structure of the ConsumerFinancial Protection Bureau.  The Bureau is a government agency the industry fought hard to keep from coming into being at all.

So why the sudden  attention on the Bureau and ‘helping it out?’

Turns out the banking industry wants to have the Bureau governed by a board of political appointees.  Their secret wish is to partially cripple the agency by fanning the fires of political controversy and internecine warfare.

Can members of Congress withstand the pressure?

Consumer Protection?

 

 

Is JPMorgan Chase Feeling Regulatory Pressure?

Why is JP Morgan Chase exiting the private equity business?

The deal would push Highbridge Capital Management’s $22 billion private equity portfolio outside JPMorgan, which would maintain a minority interest.  Top executives, including its chief executive, Scott Kapnick, are expected to take ownership.

Big banks have been under pressure to spin off their in-house private equity and hedge funds.

The first businesses to go were the operations that invested the banks’ own money — so-called proprietary investing — which was banned by the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation known as the Volcker Rule.  

Has pressure from regulators and investors forced the big banks to simplify their businesses?

JPMorgan will apparently keep ownership of Highbridge’s $6 billion hedge fund portfolio.

JPMorgan Chase

US v Euro: Keep Interest Rates Low?

David McHugh writes: The European Central Bank is edging closer to unleashing more monetary stimulus on top of the 1.1 trillion euros ($1.2 trillion) it is already pumping into the eurozone’s less than impressive economic recovery.

While no immediate action is expected at Thursday’s meeting in Malta, investors will look for hints from ECB President Mario Draghi that the bank is willing or preparing to extend the stimulus effort rather than let it end next year.

A big concern is preventing the euro from rising from its current level around $1.13 per euro. A higher euro hurts exporters, who are key contributors to growth and jobs, and tends to weaken inflation by weighing on import prices.

A currency tends to weaken as a side effect of monetary stimulus, whose primary aim is to raise consumer price inflation. Currently, the eurozone’s inflation rate is alarmingly weak at an annual minus 0.1 percent. Europe’s economy grew 0.4 percent in the second quarter but unemployment remains high at 11 percent.

Draghi is getting no help on the exchange rate from his counterparts across the Atlantic at the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed has sent the dollar lower by postponing its first rate increase in seven years. Higher interest rates in the United States would draw more investment into dollar-denominated investments, increasing demand for the dollar and boosting its exchange rate against other currencies. So when the Fed backed off a rate increase at its September meeting, it put some upward pressure on the euro versus the dollar.

The ECB, the chief monetary authority for the 19 countries that use the shared euro currency, is currently making monthly purchases of government and corporate bonds using newly created money.

Draghi will probably  try to keep a lid on the euro by making clear that more stimulus could be coming.

“We expect no action and dovish rhetoric, mainly intended to stem the euro appreciating trend,” Valli wrote in a research note. “Dovish” means inclined to loosen monetary policy, whether through lower interest rates or more stimulus.

The ECB has already cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05 percent and has said that is as close to zero as it can get, so attention is focused on its stimulus program. That consists of buying bonds with freshly created money, effectively pumping cash into the banking system in hopes it will encourage lending and borrowing, and thus boost the economy.

The Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan have all carried out such purchases, with mixed results. The U.S. and British economies have shown stronger growth, and U.S. unemployment has fallen. But the global economy continues to show signs of weakness, such as a drop in prices for fuel and other commodities and low market interest rates.

Print Money

Women CEOs: The Toughest Jobs?

Yahoo’s earnings are down. Bests prospects are the sale of their Alibaba stock.  Did Marissa Mayer take on an impossible job?  At least she is being paid lots of money.

Business Insider reports:  Three years into Marissa Mayer’s project to rebuild Yahoo, the wheels are starting to come off.

Never mind that the company’s revenue remains stagnant and that it has not yet managed to create anything close to a hit product that would spark some buzz among consumers and investors.

Or that Snapchat reportedly dumped Yahoo from its Discover service because it decided Yahoo was simply not relevant to its younger “millennial” audience. Or that Yahoo’s stock has fallen 25% since May.

The real problem facing Yahoo is that its own team looks as if it’s giving up.

That became all too clear with Monday’s news that Jackie Reses, one of Mayer’s key lieutenants who joined the team early on, is leaving to join the digital-payments company Square, which is approaching an initial public offering.

Reses and some of the other recent departures are not long-suffering Yahoo employees who have finally decided to move on after years of CEO changes, company re-orgs, and other hardships.

This is the core team handpicked by Mayer to lead the comeback effort. These are the people who bought in to the vision and, it would appear, who have now lost faith that Mayer will lead them to the promised land.

Kathy Savitt, the chief marketing officer and another marquee Mayer hire, left Yahoo last month. Lisa Licht, Yahoo’s senior vice president of marketing partnerships, and roughly a dozen other execs have also left in recent months.

Yahoo’s management page still shows a 15-person senior leadership team (not including Reses, who is still listed).

But a few big names on that list would really damage whatever credibility the company’s comeback effort still has if they were to leave.

These include Jeff Bonforte, a Yahoo “boomerang” hire who oversees the company’s communications products, and Adam Cahan, who spearheads Yahoo’s video and emerging products.

And then of course, there is CFO Ken Goldman, who Mayer tapped early on to bring some Silicon Valley experience and gravitas to the turnaround effort.

Of course, with Yahoo moving forward with the planned spin-off of its 15% stake in the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, it may simply be that it’s mission-accomplished time for much of the executive team.

The IRS has refused to give its advanced blessing to make the Alibaba spin-off a tax-free transaction, as Yahoo and its shareholders want. But Yahoo has indicated that it will push forward with the plan regardless.

Yahoo’s stake in Alibaba is the real reason Yahoo’s own stock has more than doubled since Mayer took the reins in July 2012.

Yahoo’s shareholders would prefer a tax-free spin-off. But even if the spin-off is not entirely tax-free, completing it will give Yahoo’s management team a convenient opportunity to trumpet an achievement and to wash their hands of the rest of Yahoo.

Sun Trust analyst Robert Peck speculated in a note to investors that Yahoo could become an acquisition target or a private-equity play after the Alibaba spin-off.

Yahoo’s turnaround would of course still be a work in progress. But then, maybe it was never about that to begin with.

Yahoo?

Should Central Banks Prick Bubbles?

Should the central banks take pre-emptive strikes against bubbles?

Howard Davies writes: It makes sense to vary banks’ capital requirements according to the financial cycle. When credit expansion is rapid, it may be appropriate to increase banks’ capital requirements as a hedge against the heightened risk of a subsequent contraction. This increase would be above what microprudential supervision – assessing the risks to individual institutions – might dictate. In this way, the new Basel rules allow for requiring banks to maintain a so-called countercyclical buffer of extra capital.

But if the idea of the countercyclical buffer is now generally accepted, what of the “nuclear option” to prick a bubble: Is it justifiable to increase interest rates in response to a credit boom, even though the inflation rate might still be below target? And should central banks be given a specific financial-stability objective, separate from an inflation target?  Pricking Bubbles

Pricking Bubbles?

 

Instituting Carbon Pricing?

Carbon pricing will be a critical piece in global warming control.

Christine Lagarde and Jim Young Kim write:  Carbon pricing policies are already being implemented by some 40 national governments, including that of China, the world’s largest emitter, and 23 cities, states, and regions that are putting a price on carbon. Many other governments also are reforming energy prices, and more than 400 companies report using a voluntary, internal carbon price. That makes sense. Top companies must effectively manage exposure to climate risk in order to generate higher profits and ensure more stable earnings.  Carbon Pricing

 Carbon

Entrepreneur Alert: Lifting Iran Sanctions

President Barack Obama ordered the US government to take steps towards lifting sanctions on Iran, in accordance with the historic nuclear deal struck between six world powers and Tehran.

Obama’s directive comes 90 days after the UN Security Council endorsed the accord signed in Vienna in July, a milestone referred to as “Adoption Day.”

“I hereby direct you to take all necessary steps to give effect to the US commitments with respect to sanctions,” Obama said in a memorandum addressed to the US secretaries of state, energy, commerce and the treasury.

The measures will take effect upon confirmation by the Secretary of State that Iran has met its commitments under the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the accord is known, Obama said.

“This is an important day for all of us and a critical first step in the process of ensuring that Iran’s nuclear program will be exclusively for peaceful purposes,” Secretary of State John Kerry added in a statement.

But no sanctions will be lifted immediately — full relief will come not on “adoption day” but on “implementation day,” the point when the IAEA is able to certify that Iran has fully complied with its end of the bargain.

Under the deal with world powers, Iran will dramatically reduce its uranium enrichment program, surrender or dilute most of its highly enriched fuel and open its nuclear sites to inspectors from the IAEA, the UN nuclear watchdog.

In return, the United States, Europe and other countries will rescind a raft of economic sanctions imposed on Iran because of fears that its nuclear research program concealed plans to develop an atomic bomb.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif were also set to make statements on the lifting of crippling sanctions on Tehran.

Tehran has said it hopes “implementation day” will come quickly, in less than two months, but Washington envisages a longer timeframe.

“For us it’s important that it’s done right, not that it’s done quickly,” a senior administration official told reporters. “We cannot imagine less than two months.”

Is the World Bank Relevant?

Hovering over the annual International Monetary Fund/World Bank meeting in Lima, Peru, were the China-inspired Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and New Development Bank (or “BRICS Development Bank,” as it was originally called). Will these new institutions behave like the World Bank or the more conventionally “bank-like” European Investment Bank (EIB)? Above all, will they be vehicles to promote – or, paradoxically, constrain – China’s interests?

Devesh Kapur writes”  The reality is that over the next decade, these new institutions will not be huge lenders. The paid-in capital of each is $10 billion; so, even with an equity-to-loan ratio of 20% (the current floor for the World Bank), each will be able to lend only about $50 billion  – not chump change, but hardly a game changer – unless they “crowd in” substantial private investment. What matters is that the larger emerging markets are putting substantial capital into institutions that will be dominated by China – an indication of how frustrated they are with the World Bank and the IMF.

In the 2015 financial year, the EIB lent more than twice the amount provided by the Bank, but with one-sixth the staff. Whether measured by flows (loan disbursements) or stock (loans outstanding), the World Bank is massively over-staffed.

When the Bank was formed, the key governance mechanism was a resident Board of Directors that reported to a Board of Governors.  Over time, new offices proliferated.

Most of this bureaucratic growth was the result of pressure from developed countries.

The Bank’s extreme risk-averse culture reflects a rational response to critics who make a huge fuss about every project or program failure. Critics who take failures in commercial projects in stride find the Bank sloth-like compared with the private sector and become indignant when its projects fail. Yet, instead of making the case that risk is intrinsic to economic development and developing a risk-balanced portfolio of projects (and loans priced accordingly), the Bank pretends that it can be infallible. As a result, the best has become the enemy of the good.

Risk aversion has gone hand in hand with skewed institutional priorities, as is evident in the Bank’s budget. In the 2015 financial year, $623 million was allocated to “Client Engagement,” while nearly 1.5 times that amount, or $931.6 million, went to “Institutional, Governance & Administration” (the remaining $600 million, for “Program and Practice Management,” is ostensibly for supporting lending operations). Expenses for the Executive Board alone were $87 million. The Bank loudly proclaims the virtues of research – and then spends almost as much – $44 million – on “External and Corporate Relations.”  The Future of the World Bank

Future of World Bank

Entrepreneur Alert: Arctic Openings

 At a recent meeting of the Arctic Council the President of Iceland pointed out the many opportunities opening up in the Arctic as one of the few positive outcomes of global warming.  The council, founded in 1996, brings together eight nations with land above the Arctic Circle – Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the US.

Climate change has countries as far away as India also paying attention to the Arctic – and seeking observer status in the council. Melting polar ice is making mineral and oil resources easier to exploit, setting off a scramble for access. The US Geological Survey estimated in 2008 that some 22% of the world’s undiscovered oil and natural gas deposits were located above the Arctic Circle.

The warming climate also opens shipping routes that were once mostly inaccessible. The northern sea route would cut the distance between Shanghai and Europe by several thousands of miles, saving time and money.

China is courting Nordic countries, signing a trade agreement with Iceland and several commercial agreements with Denmark.

Greenland, a self-governing part of Denmark, is considering awarding mine exploration licenses to companies this year for a $2bn (£1.3bn) project north-east of the capital Nuuk.

One of those companies is London Mining, which would join a Chinese mining company in the project that could supply China with 15 million tonnes of iron ore a year.

China is one of 14 countries that have applied for observer status in the council, along with Japan, South Korea, India and others. Several European countries such as France and the Netherlands are already observers.

It is unclear whether the eight members will be able to reach a decision by the end of their meeting in Kiruna, which will also mark the transfer of the council chairmanship from Sweden to Canada for the next two years. The US takes over in 2015.

Arctic Opportunities?

 

Should US Eliminate Corporate Taxes?

Along the rocky road to globalization, US corporations get taxed twice as much as corporations in other countries.  If they’re going to be competitive in business worldwide, they can’t pay disproportionate taxes.  Some people argue that taxing corporations and dividends is double taxation and perhaps we should limit the tax to dividends, and eliminate the corporate tax.  In any case, we should probably modify our tax code to bring it in better conformity with other countries around the world.

US Tax Havens