Economist Carmen Reinhart in the Hot Seat

We have featured Reinhart on WTW and think this is academic rivalry targeting one of the most prominent economists.  In a defence of the paper she developed with Ken Rogoff later into a book, Professors Rogoff and Reinhart admitted on Wednesday that an “accidental” omission of countries from the first five letters of the alphabet from one data series led to the average growth rates of the economies it surveyed being depressed. However, the academics rejected in the “strongest terms” suggestions they had manipulated data to reach conclusions.  George Osborne adopted their policies in 2010.  Article The debate continues.  Lost in all this sound and fury is the real question that we should be debating: Is it appropriate to infer that high debt is driving slower growth, and hence governments need to take greater care before taking on debt? Or is lower GDP growth, or perhaps some other factor, the reason that debt burdens rise? If the observed correlations reflect the latter reason (and there are hints that it may), then the whole exercise has little relevance to public policy.  Articlefighting

Paul Krugman joins the fray.  Video

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