Will the US Be Replaced as the World’s Economic Powerhouse?

Adam Creighton writes:  Some of the world’s leading economists are hosing down fears that the US – and by extension the west – is about to lose its economic hegemony.

In the coming few years, even a decade, no. — Anat Admati, Professor of finance and economics at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. 

No, the primacy of the US follows from the fact that it offers the greatest scope for innovation by its population relative to any other country. Every American is thinking of a new way to do old things or a way to do new products and technologies, to make a fortune. And the venture capital market obliges by providing the finance to translate the idea of the new innovation into actual innovation. The US is a mecca for people with ideas and skills that blend into this landscape. — Jagdish Bhagwati, professor of economics, law and international relations at Columbia University.

That’s already happened as regards global trade. It is about to happen in the production of goods and services. In the area of finance, the US will remain the top dog for quite a bit longer. Willem Buiter, Global chief economist at Citigroup, former professor of political economy at LSE. 

John Cochrane.

In a peaceful world other countries should catch up to the US way of doing things. And in the current trend, the US seems to be going out of its way to pursue inefficiency. Holland is a nice place to live. It was the “powerhouse” of the 17th century. Is it a worse place to live now that other countries have caught up? — John Cochrane, Senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford. 

No, China is headed rather rapidly toward zero per cent growth. After a long period of adjustment, it will re-emerge with something like a four per cent growth rate. I am a China optimist for the long-term, but not for the next 10 years. — Tyler Cowen, Professor of economics at George Mason University, US.

No, the only potential competitor is China, and it will hit a wall, or explode, unless it figures out how to make its political system much more open. I see no evidence that the Chinese Communist Party will ever let this happen. — Eugene Fama, Professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He shared the Nobel prize in economic sciences in 2013 with Robert Shiller and Lars Peter Hansen for work on the empirical analysis of asset prices.

Edward Glaeser. Picture: Harvard

In due time, the US will surely cease to have the world’s largest GDP. Even if per capita incomes in China only grow to 40 per cent of US levels, China will become the larger economy. However, over the past few years, the US has looked somewhat stronger and China has looked somewhat weaker. The US system of decentralised capitalism can also create wasteful investment and overbuilding, but we continue to also have an abundant supply of more productive entrepreneurs. Like Australia, America’s open and free culture abets innovators and encourages start-ups. America’s biggest weakness, which will surely cause us even larger problems in the 21st century, is its education system.  Edward Glaeser, Professor of economics at Harvard. With a PhD from the University of Chicago.  

Yes, eventually. For a while the US will have company from China and Europe. —Michael Spence, Professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. He shared the Nobel Memorial Prize in economic sciences in 2001. 

Not any time soon. Europe could have given the US a run for its money but I think the troubles there will resurface; the single currency is a problem. — Richard Thaler, Professor of behavioural science and economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. 

I doubt it. I would not deny that the economy of the US has structural problems, not least in the areas of education, health and infrastructure. Yet, when we look at China and Europe, potential US rivals, the problems they face seem even bigger. Future prosperity will also depend increasingly on innovation, and there the US still leads by a wide margin. — William White, Chair of the OECD’s economic and development review committee.