Martti Ahtisaari writes: The division of Cyprus may be moving toward resolution. For the first time since 2004, there is a fragile alignment of the political stars over the eastern Mediterranean.
There has been little reason for optimism during the decade that has passed since the last serious attempt to overcome the island’s division. The proposal in 2004 by then-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan would have united the island by creating a federation of two states. But while Turkish Cypriots embraced the so-called Annan Plan, Greek Cypriots rejected it in a referendum one week before the Republic of Cyprus entered the European Union.
In 2008, there was an attempt to revive the peace effort, after the moderate Demetris Christofias replaced Tassos Papadopoulos as the Greek Cypriot president; but the process soon lost steam. In 2014, the discovery of vast energy reserves in the waters between Cyprus and Israel led some to hope that peace would soon be at hand; but the potential energy bonanza ended up aggravating tensions. Last fall, Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades called a halt to the peace process, citing Turkish brinkmanship over rights to gas exploration.
This time, it is a political development on the Turkish side that has improved the outlook for peace. The election in April of Turkish Cypriot President Mustafa Akinci has brought a breath of fresh air to the island. Akinci, a former leftist mayor of northern Nicosia, known for his steadfast commitment to peace in Cyprus, immediately brought about a change in the relationship between the two communities.
Anastasiades had, in 2004, campaigned in favor of the Annan Plan, and Akinci’s election seems to have reawakened his counterpart’s desire for an accord. Over the last few months, the two leaders have agreed on a package of confidence-building measures, including two new crossing points along the Green Line that divides the island; improved mobile, radio, and electricity connections; and mechanisms for business and cultural cooperation. In an unprecedented move, the two presidents, strolled together in Nicosia’s old town, crisscrossing the Green Line. Above all, they vowed to resume peace negotiations.
When talks resumed in earnest in May, both presidents were directly involved, their participation having been facilitated by UN Special Adviser on Cyprus Espen Barth Eide. Anastasiades and Akinci are committed to reaching an agreement within months, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has called on them to forge an accord by the end of 2015.
To be sure, there is no guarantee that a deal will be struck. Plenty of details remain to be hammered out. The agreement is likely to entail greater territorial adjustments than were called for under the Annan Plan, as well as modernized security guarantees, a phasing out of settlement and property restrictions, and clearer and more decentralized governing arrangements. But, though the negotiations will be tough, even the conflict’s most hardened observers recognize that peace may now be within reach.
