Samuel Bendett writes:  The energy situation in Ukraine has been precarious for years — going back long before the separatist rebellion in the country’s east, and the loss of Crimea to Russian military action. The crisis now stands to get much worse.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk notes an inadequate supply of coal, his nation’s main energy source. At this point, it looks like Kiev does not have enough money to buy the 7 million tons of coal needed to provide heat to its citizens — the Ukrainian government needs $500 million. If the winter turns really cold — the “very bad” scenario — $900 million will be needed in order to purchase 11 million tons of coal.

To make matters worse, coal is plentiful in the Donbas, and thus under the control of the secessionist Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR). According to the Russian daily Komsomolskaya Pravda, Kiev is currently negotiating coal purchases with Luhansk separatists, as well as with Russia. The progress of negotiations, given the state of belligerence between the parties, is still unclear.