This role reversal reveals at least three consequential aspects of the changes:

•  First, having achieved progress on containing and isolating the Greek crisis, Europe seems a lot less worried about the potential for negative spillover effects should the multiyear drama now end in tragedy.
•  Second, Europe is becoming less resistant to the notion of Greece exiting the single currency, especially if this were the result of a Greek decision rather than one imposed by its EU partners.
•  Third, the proposed referendum would push the Syriza-led government into a lose-lose situation.

To understand these three developments, it is worth recalling why Europe crushed the referendum proposed by the Greek government in 2011.

Confronted by pockets of internal opposition, Papandreou saw the referendum as a way to mobilize broad-based voter backing to implement difficult economic reforms.

Almost four years later, Europe is far less worried about the adverse consequences of a Grexit.  The change in Europe’s attitude has been influenced by events in Greece. Syriza’s election success was fueled by repeated promises to alter course on economic policy, including by being less compliant with the austerity demands imposed by Greece’s European partners and the International Monetary Fund. At the same time, the government’s ability to secure agreement with its creditors has been repeatedly undermined by public disagreement, a trust deficit, and rookie governing mishaps. In such circumstances, a referendum presents a lot more downside for the Greek government than in 2011.

A referendum that showed broad-based support for EU-imposed measures would undermine both the unity and electoral credibility of Syriza.

Even the rejection of EU-imposed measures in a referendum wouldn’t be a good outcome for Syriza. The vote would accelerate capital outflows, risk a large-scale run on banks and make it very hard for the European Central Bank to continue to provide Emergency Liquidity Assistance, all of which would bring closer the country’s economic and financial implosion.

The Greek government’s hope is to retain control as it secures time to compel creditors to agree to an easing of austerity measures, a reorientation of some structural reforms, greater debt relief and a large injection of immediate funding beyond what is being provided by the ECB.  That is why it will resist a referendum; and why its European partners will continue to insist on such a vote.