Italians Now Credible?

Rob Cox writes:  The Italian presence was hard to miss at Davos, and not just on the official program, where the 40-year-old Renzi was the subject of a special session entitled “Transformational Leadership.”

Chiefs of the country’s top banks, state-oil giant Eni, insurer Generali – even the head of the once-secretive Mediobanca – and their entourages jostled through security lines. Opera tenor Andrea Bocelli kicked off the proceedings. Global brewer SABMiller hosted a “Taste of Italy” reception.

The country’s corporate and political leaders have had good reason to avoid Davos. Italy’s output has shrunk by about a tenth over the last decade. The unemployment rate, especially among young people, exceeds 13 percent. GDP growth is forecast by the International Monetary Fund at a recently slashed 0.4 percent.

Renzi nevertheless took the stage in Davos with some significant reform victories, which Italian executives say could help the economy expand beyond those expectations.

1. Renzi has pushed through labor rules that will allow companies to hire and fire more easily.

2.  Italy’s Senate this week approved an amendment to a new electoral law designed to foster more stability and efficiency in long-dysfunctional Italian politics.

3.  Renzi approved a plan to effectively force the country’s mutually-owned banks, which account for about a fifth of the industry, to privatize. By abolishing a structure that gave every stockholder the same vote notwithstanding the number of shares held,  much-needed consolidation will take shape.

The risk for Renzi is that he is moving so quickly that he splinters the party. To get reforms approved, for instance, the coalition has had to rely on the opposition led by Silvio Berlusconi, whose control of his party, Forza Italia, is also tenuous. With presidential elections on the horizon, the possibility of an all-too-familiar political setback is possible.

“The most important structural reform for Italy is credibility,” he told the WEF delegates. The question is whether they take that message home with them from Davos.

Renzi

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